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(Most of OP shamelessly pilfered from Spoaenk's 2022 OP) A way to get even angrier about numbers than looking at a US hospital bill! Free League Hosting Services
Premium League Hosting Services
Useful Free Resources
Best Stat Resources (Friends Don't Let Friends Use PFF)
Useful Premium Resources (just copied and pasted from the 2020 iteration of this thread, not my opinions, though My Playbook is an incredibly powerful multi-league management tool.
Useful League Resources
ADP, Rankings and Projections
Podcasts
Twitter Follows Here's an updated twitter list for fantasy: Beat Writer Aggregator @32BeatWriters Real NFL Guys @AlbertBreer @gregcosell @mortreport @AdamSchefter @rapsheet Football Guys @Sigmundbloom - Produces the excellent "Audible" podcast. My favorite follow. @MattWaldman - Writes the Rookie Scouting Portfolio. I'm not sure he sleeps. @JeneBramel - MD and Football Guy, excellent for injury updates on gameday morning and IDP advice Not Dov Kleiman The Fantasy Footballers - some people don't like them (too much fluff) but they are insanely accurate @JasonFFL @AndyHolloway @ffhitman CBS Sports @DaveRichard - might be the nicest guy in fantasy @JameyEisenberg - doesn't sleep @HeathCummingssr - contrarian takes @CTowersCBS - mix baseball/football @AdamAizer - Trash takes ESPN @MikeClayNFL - The only one worth your time on their godawful analysis network @StephaniaESPN - ok, Stephania Bell is good, too. NFL @GreggRosenthal - Former Rotoworld writer, great real life football knowledge @AdamRank - Fantasy Analyst @MarcasG - Fantasy Analyst @MichaelFFlorio - Fantasy Analyst NBC Sports Edge (current and former) @LordReebs @JoshNorris @EvanSilva - The GOAT @RotoPat - The guy who writes the funny Rotoworld blurbs @CDCarter13 - FF #taeks and owning the ilbs Yahoo! @scott_pianowski @AndyBehrens - boring @LizLoza_FF @MattHarmon_BYB - The Reception Perception guy. @YahooNoise - Accurate/ballsy, but can take over a twitter feed Misc. Writers/PFF Guys @friscojosh - The Airyards Guy. Kind of an rear end in a top hat but has great WR insight @LateRoundQB - JJ Zachariason, Editor-in-Chief at Fanduel & Numberfire @ChrisRaybon - DFS Expert, but gives some good insight @ScottBarrettDFB - Head PFF Fantasy Analyst, extraordinarily good info @MikeTagliereNFL - lead NFL Writer, Fantasypros (RIP Tags) @Allinkid - Lead Writer, The Athletic Fantasy @4for4_John - from 4for4, most accurate guy the last couple years @TJHernandez - DFS Director, 4for4 @HarrisFootball  Introduction - lifted directly from Beer because this is all good stuff! Fantasy football does something amazing for sports fans in that it can make any game interesting. Two 0-5 teams across the country from you squaring off? Well if you have one of their quarterbacks, you will be pounding the table and screaming at the game until they kick you out of the bar. Basically, you put together a team of individual players from around the league, then score points based on their performance on the football field. Lots of stuff can score points, like gaining yards and catching passes, so there's room for excitement during every single play. The cycle of an NFL week provides a great framework for fantasy football. Most fantasy leagues are set up where each player plays another every week, and whoever has the highest total once the Monday night game ends gets the win. The playoffs happen during the last few weeks of the NFL regular season (although week 17 is a severely unpopular week for fantasy championships, because playoff-bound teams often rest their best players.) Pretty much, if you like football and watching football, you will most likely love fantasy. If you never have before, give it a try. The Basics A league consists of several owners (typically 12), one of whom is the commissioner who manages the league. At the beginning of the season each owner drafts a roster of players. Rosters are typically fifteen players and consist of starters and a bench of reserve players to replace starters who are injured or on bye weeks. A typical starting lineup that will mirror NFL positions and consist of 1 Quarterback (QB), 2 Running Backs (RB), 3 Wide Receivers (WR), 1 Tight End (TE), a Place Kicker (PK), and a Team Defense/Special Teams (DST). Each week your players will score points for your team according to their performance. Scoring can be very simple or incredibly complicated depending on the league, but many leagues use a standard scoring system where passing provides 1 point per 25 yards, 4 points per passing touchdown, and -1 point per interception and receiving and rushing gain 1 point per 10 yards, 6 points per receiving/rushing touchdown. Field goals are typically worth 3 points, and team defense scoring depends on a number of factors including sacks, interceptions, points allowed, defensive touchdowns, etc. Many leagues will use different scoring systems depending on the preferences of the players. One significant difference is PPR, or Points Per Reception, where wide receiver are awarded a set number of points (typically 0.5 or 1) for every reception. The league season will go for a set number of weeks during the regular NFL season. Typically the last two to four weeks of the regular season are reserved for the playoffs, and most leagues end on the sixteenth week because many NFL teams will sit their star players in Week 17 if the outcome doesn't matter. Variations There are many roster variations that different leagues will use. Many leagues use a flex position where different positions can fit into a slot. The most common form of flex position replaces the third WR position in the standard lineup above with a WR/RB/TE flex position. That means that any Wide Receiver, Running Back, or Tight End player could be used in that slot. Leagues where that flex position allows a QB are typically called "2 QB leagues" because quarterbacks typically score far more points that other players. Other leagues utilize IDP or Individual Defensive Players instead of Team Defenses. IDP players score points for tackles, sacks, interceptions, touchdowns, etc. Many leagues are several years old and include rules to provide continuity between seasons. In contrast to a redraft league where every player is drafted at the start of each season some leagues use keepers where team owners are allowed to keep a set number of players per year. Other leagues are dynasty leagues where the entire roster is kept from year to year. Typically dynasty leagues use much deeper benches and include a rookie draft. The Draft Every league starts with a draft, where team owner pick their players. There are two major types of draft; the snake draft and the auction draft. A snake draft is where every owner receives a draft position and then picks a player in order for a number of rounds equal to the roster size. It's called a snake draft because the order "snakes" back and forth each round. In other words the owner who picked last in the first round will pick first in the second. Auction drafts are where each team owner has a set budget and they bid for each player until everyone's roster has been filled. There are numerous drafting strategies out there, but ultimately the goal of any draft is to get the maximum amount of value for your players. Trades and the Waiver Wire While drafting is essential, the most successful teams typically win by taking advantage of the waiver wire and trades. Trading is precisely what it sounds like; players offer each other trades that are accepted or rejected. Many leagues incorporate an approval process to prevent collusion where two players will deliberately stack one team and then split the winnings; there is no universe where Adrian Peterson is worth Mark Sanchez. Depending on the league trading may either be nonexistent or commonplace. Many leagues will end trading several weeks before the playoffs begin. The NFL has hundreds of players and most of them will not be on a team roster. As players are injured or fall out of favor team owners will be forced to pick up free agents to replace them. To do this they use the waiver wire. Each week individual players are locked the moment their team starts their game. For the duration of this "waiver period" owners who wish to claim a free agent submit a "waiver claim." Owners who wish to make more than one waiver claim must indicate the priority of their claims. At the end of the waiver period (typically a day or two after the beginning of the new week) the league software checks the standings of the teams. Going in reverse order (worst standing to highest) the teams get their highest priority claim. If multiple teams have submitted waiver claims for the same player it will go the team with the lowest standing, and the other teams will get their lower priority claims. After the waiver period has en`ded every player is available to be claimed immediately. The waiver wire is extremely important. Alfred Morris, the 5th ranked running back of 2012, was a free agent in most leagues until the first week. Many owners use the waiver wire to "stream" defenses and other players based on that week's match. Advice: Know your drat league settings and make a plan before the draft. Does your league give a point per reception? Raise your valuation of pass catching running backs and those low-highlight receivers that get a bunch of targets. Are you in a league that gives bonus points for drafting players that are literally the worst human being? Whoever is quarterbacking for Tampa Bay should get a boost. So many times, people sit down at a draft and ask, "is this 4 point or 6 point passing TDs?" Don't do that: If you're going to do no research beforehand, just get a Beer Sheet and follow it, that's exactly what they're invented for. A very special rant about auctions: Don't take auction advice from analysts who primarily do drafts. Auctions take longer and how they go is greatly dependent upon the people involved. So analysts only have time to get in a few auctions each season, and it's usually with the same batch of other analysts they work with. This means that often the advice they give has only been shown to work a few times with a pre-set group of owners. If you're looking for some tips as a first-time auctioner, or you're wondering how the meta has shifted for this year, don't Google it. Just hit us up here in the Armchair Quarterback. I've already started my mocks and analysis for 2023 and am always happy to share everything I've learned. A WAY TO GET BETTER ADVICE ON KEEPERS FROM THE THREAD Put as many rules as possible in your questions. Include league size, keeper rules (cost, how long can you keep, etc), rules (4 points for TD, PPR, etc) That should be everything.
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May 6, 2023 01:11
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| # ¿ May 16, 2024 13:13 |
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Poque posted:Way to lose to drunknerds in the playoffs this season. He hasn't checked his team in like three years. I actually might kind of care about dynasty now. As I said in the other thread, yesterday I was on the clock in a SF league and Stroud was available. Going back and forth with all the interested owners to engineer the best trade back possible (I traded 1.05 & 2.05 for 1.09 and DJM because all I wanted was a WR and the top 4 were still on the board). That awakened something in me. I'm going to check this team Poque is talking about, now. Edit: Holy cow, I need to win now. Or do I need to trade Cook and Henry to a team that needs to win now for some building pieces? Or has that window past? Am I doing dynasty thoughts right? Drunk Nerds fucked around with this message at 17:36 on May 6, 2023 |
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May 6, 2023 17:22
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Auction talk: I'm trying to figure out ESPN's conversion algorithm because its flaws always lead to some bizarre steals at several key spots. I think they switched to a tier-based formula for their QBs and that's left some no-ring-sized gaping holes: Mahomes/Allen/Hurts: Mid $30s Burrow/Jackson: $18-20 Fields/Herbert: $8 Everyone else: Under $5 I'm worried because this is so detached from actual human closed-economy behavior that I can't really give advice. Like, obviously you should get Burrow at $21 or Fields at $9 or TreeLaw at $5, but there's no way that's going to be their AAV. There's no way someone is going to bid a top 3 guy up to $35, lose, and then pass at Burrow for $15 less. There's no way someone is going to bid up to $20 for Lamar, lose, and then let Lamar 2.0 Fields go for under $10. It just doesn't make market sense.
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May 11, 2023 14:53
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I'm gonna guess cowboys. That would deflate Pollard from "whoa that's a lot of capital to assume he's gonna do it again" to "this is a crazy steal because he was a top 10 back with Zeke there." Which I like
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May 13, 2023 02:04
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Here I am, mock you like a hurricane https://sleeper.app/draft/nfl/963286057103990784 No clock superflex. Hoping to fire on the weekend.
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May 18, 2023 14:45
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kiimo posted:He's bad. I jumped at the chance. How much time per pick? Why couldn't you grab Gibbs then field calls to trade back? That's what I did when Stroud was available at my 1.05 and I suck at dynasty
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May 22, 2023 14:23
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The Wild Man of YOLO posted:I'm definitely coming around to "dynasty startup drafts should be auctions" All drafts should be auctions
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Jul 12, 2023 16:56
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So, three things: 1. Mark Andrews is a DEXCOM Warrior with powerful car wash vacuum tubes for hands. He still retains all the insane talent and only fell off a cliff because the Ravens had to field their backup QB who insisted on following his reads and other nonsense instead of Lamar Jackson's go to plan of "if the first read breaks down and I can't run then throw it to a triple covered Mark Andrews for easy yards." I don't care if Oldell is there or if the Ravens line up 5 pro bowl WRs every play. LJ is still going to force it to Andrews every time his first read breaks down and there's a spy. MAndrews is easy money at his current ADP. 2. Last year Sataere and I ran an "intro to auction" league for people that wanted to try the (best) draft format but had trepidation about testing the waters. We streamed the draft and gave everyone commentary and advice to maximize their team and even the playing field. I'm running this back for 2023, as there's been a lot of interest in our Discord. If anyone here has never done auction and would be interested in this league, message me. Entry fee would be a nominal $5 or $10. Drunk Nerds fucked around with this message at 16:15 on Jul 26, 2023 |
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Jul 26, 2023 16:06
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Judgy Fucker posted:Hi fantasy football thread, I do not follow the NFL at all (college guy) but I’m tired of being the only person in my social circle who doesn’t play fantasy football so I’m diving in this year. I see a bunch of resources in the OP, I will take a look at those but wanted to ask: 3. Welcome to the best pasttime on Earth! Could you post your leagues scoring settings and how many of each position you can start? ESPN rankings are always notoriously funky, I've already written one article on their 2023 weirdness. What could seem like a joke setting "just for laughs" could have season winning potential. Plus if there's something weird like "you can start 2 QBs" it completely changes how you want to draft.
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Jul 26, 2023 16:08
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Oh and for the new-to-auction league, Sataere and I have a rule if we win any money (neither of us did last year). It's either donate it to charity or toss it into the prize pool for next year, I forget which. We just want to get more people falling in love with the auction format.
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Jul 26, 2023 16:13
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Spoeank posted:My home league is collapsing 😢 I'm assuming Mr. You're a Dick for not Inviting Me to Your Wedding is doing the Lion's share?
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Jul 27, 2023 00:39
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Poque posted:I want some juicy deets Jeff shares some of his home league bickerings on the podcast every July/August and just listening to them is exhausting
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Jul 27, 2023 01:41
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My issue is that, in 7 of 15 games last year, Kittle scored under 3 in standard, under 5.2 in hppr , and under 7.7 in full PPR. 7 out of 15 games he didn't show up at all. TE is all about either getting a consistent positional advantage or sticking with the blob with a boring but high floor performance. Just under 50% of the time Kittle didn't provide either
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Jul 27, 2023 13:49
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kiimo posted:This will be the last year I can keep Justin Jefferson. Started as an 8th round hit and will be 4th round this year. Just an absolute steal three years in a row. People dropping rookies weeks 3-5 because they are underperforming on their bench will never stop happening and never stop being hilarious. He's on your bench, why does he need to be scoring NOW??
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Jul 28, 2023 15:46
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kiimo posted:Still waiting for Jeudy to become startable. But I'm feeling optimistic this year He was wr21 in HPPR last year despite playing on the lowest scoring offense in the whole league
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Jul 28, 2023 17:38
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Diqnol posted:I had Scott Hanson do our draft order this year. He's amazing. That's cool. In years where I'm in a snake draft I make wrestlers that look like everyone in the league in wwe 2k19 then stream a royal rumble to determine draft order
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Aug 4, 2023 16:17
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Pain of Mind posted:comparisons to Hunter Biden. You are trying to logic with crazy, got it.
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Aug 5, 2023 16:37
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In a SF league I'm windmill slamming Mahomes at 12 and Fields anywhere near the second round or later. Also I've been working with the Beersheets dev and we have an alternative that pulls the same data and customizes it for your league settings, just like the old sheets did. Beta testing is currently open on our Discord, if you want in pm me.
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Aug 7, 2023 17:43
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Judgy Fucker posted:Yeah, I'm starting to put some pieces together here. So the whole group is new to auction? For new groups, one of two things seems to happen pretty much every time: - Early high-end nominations go for a value. If you are paying whatever the listed projected price is for a top 10 player, you are getting a deal. If this is what your market does, move in on a couple of top guy you like early. Once everyone starts panic bidding at the end of tiers, you'll be glad you got in when you did. - Early high-end nominations go for a lot, say 10% more than projected value or even more. If this is your market, move in on a couple of top guys you like early (notice the theme, here). It's okay to overpay, as long at you still have a stack of money (33%-50% or more). What's going to happen is the market will crash and guys will start going for much less than projected value. This is where you make up for your overpaying: By going in on guys early then playing the waiting game. Drunk Nerds fucked around with this message at 22:14 on Aug 7, 2023 |
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Aug 7, 2023 22:12
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Judgy Fucker posted:No, I’m the only new one. Most of them have been doing this for a long time. The whole group is OU homers, lol Oh okay, then there are a couple of other ways the market might move. People paying 5% over proj value for most top 24 guys. That still creates a market crash so the strategy still remains "get your guys, but be sure to have some $ left over for when the market crashes."
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Aug 7, 2023 22:56
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Sataere posted:I hate nominating quarterbacks early in drafts. It never gets as much out of the pot as a running back or wide receiver and you are hurting your chances at getting a great price on an elite talent. The longer a draft goes without a QB being nominated, the better your chance at getting an elite guy at a discount. Yeah I just want to fill rb and wr slots on other teams. There are enough great qbs that we can all have one and not really force a spike. As RCarr points out, it does vary and can be weaponozed if you know your league well. Judge Fucker, do you happen to have a list of last year's auction results you can post? We love getting under the hood for tailoring advice to new auction players.
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Aug 8, 2023 01:56
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Judgy Fucker posted:So evidently they haven't done an auction draft in 7 years--they've used other methods in the meantime--so no record. Oh... so much had changed since then. I wonder what aberrations this draft will have. A $30-40 Kelce? A under $50 Chase and JJeff? This truly could be a unicorn draft
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Aug 8, 2023 02:53
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Yeah making tiers is easily on the S tier list of "things to do for auction drafts"
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Aug 8, 2023 03:29
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abelwingnut posted:does it do auction values too? Yes, but it can't do auction values better than just asking in here. I haven't yet figured out how to algorithm the 30 mocks I've done into a static sheet. Maybe I never will. Just post your settings itt and I'll give 3 max possible ways the market can move and how to recognize and optimize for each of them
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Aug 9, 2023 05:40
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poly and open-minded posted:I want in but dont have PMs Don't fret: we are days away, maybe one day away, from perfecting it and then sharing it on all social media sites for free.
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Aug 9, 2023 05:41
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abelwingnut posted:cool--thanks. How many teams in the league?
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Aug 9, 2023 11:46
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Thanks. I've sat in on 2-3 12 team SF auctions this year as an advice giver and my best path has been pretty consistent and basic. 1. Get two top ~8 QBs for up to 50% of your total budget 2. If you have some wrs or rbs you love, feel free to get 2 for up to 25% of your budget. I'll be getting my Ridleys and Najees 3. HOLD HOLD HOLD. The market crash has been happening when even decent RB2s are still around, people who save 25% long enough can fill out a monster team even with needing 10+ spots to fill
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Aug 9, 2023 15:04
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Oh gosh, look at this https://footballabsurdity.com/draft-sheet-form/ I love you. Also, the preseason is upon us! Go Football!!
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Aug 11, 2023 18:51
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kiimo posted:lol at this TE tier for my league settings Yup. The industry projections for Kelces value over replacement player are higher than I've ever seen in 20 years.
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Aug 11, 2023 19:48
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I forgot to mention: The new sheets update every single morning if there are any changes in any of the analyst projections we use.
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Aug 12, 2023 15:58
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Matt Zerella posted:Yes I've double and triple checked it. The phone only restriction is for live games. You get NFL Network and RedZone on your TV box along with the condensed games. It's weird. We've had it for 7 years and I couldn't swore it was $100 for the year but now it's $80 and I get red zone
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Aug 15, 2023 23:54
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Sataere posted:Yeah, he blocked all of Football Absurdity on Twitter because one of our writers made some passing comment about him and he started reaching out to us asking us to do something and we chose the route of public mockery. Ohhhh, THAT guy. Lol, his assistant or whatever pm'ed like every single one of us DEMANDING we fire our "employee" like we have an actual HR department or something and it wasn't popular consensus that that dumb doctor was horrible at his job and almost killed Tyrod Taylor.
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Aug 16, 2023 23:24
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Poque posted:If it was David Dao or whatever, he was gone for Tyrod, which is not a good indication of the Chargers as an org! This guy tried to murder Drew Brees, et al. Oh, my!  Goons if you've ever wanted to try an auction league, Sataere and I are running back our Intro to Auction leagues for players new to the formathttps://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?noseen=1&threadid=4039551&pagenumber=1&perpage=40#post533938829 Sataere and I live-stream the draft giving loads of advice to everyone on their best strategies for roster construction.
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Aug 16, 2023 23:44
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Spoeank posted:Drunk Nerds runs a ton throughout the week and calls em out on our Discord. Getting as much human data as possible is very important to The Process. Yeah go to our discord and ask to be added to the auctioneer role and you'll be alerted whenever we mock. We stream our mocks and give live advice Saturdays and Sundays on our Football Absurdity youtube starting at 5:30 CST. Last week we kicked off Superflex Sundays as there isn't a lot of data for SF snake and auction mocks
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Aug 17, 2023 15:54
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KingKapalone posted:You're talking Dameon? Should I keep him over Rachaad? I sort of agreed with the guy above saying who cares if a keeper is good value if he's still a dud getting picked at the end of the draft even though he's a starter. Dameon Pierce actually has some decent tape. Not a lot, but it's there. Rachaad White has.... here's a YouTube called "Rachaad White" highlights https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4vFy1Dz1tj4 First clip: up the middle for a loss of 1 yard Second clip: Catch in the flat for zero yards. That's uhhhh, that's Rachaad White people
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Aug 19, 2023 02:07
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Now this video is being slightly disingenuous as it's actually every single Rachaad White touch. But I've watched every single Rachaad White touch and my disingenuous analysis is really not that far off. I'd call him mid, but I think even that's being too generous
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Aug 19, 2023 02:08
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7/10 filled for a superflex mock snake right now  https://sleeper.com/draft/nfl/998794367877971968?ftue=commish
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Aug 20, 2023 02:19
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I'm debating whether to put him in my toolbox for $1 or wait for another owner to go "this guy isn't doing anything" week 5 and drop him, then I scoop scoop
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Aug 20, 2023 21:16
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Need 2 more for a superflex mock auction https://sleeper.com/draft/nfl/999115051435048960?ftue=commish
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Aug 20, 2023 23:38
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| # ¿ May 16, 2024 13:13 |
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People keep conflating "first round rbs tend tobe bad" with "all first round rbs tend to be bad." In fact, all rbs taken at #12 or earlier in the past 8 years have had monster seasons. Now that's just four, but it's all four.
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Aug 25, 2023 00:20
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