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Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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He's the most underrated player in the league and deserves that plus more

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Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Kalli posted:

In a slight defense, Tight ends take years upon years to get going typically. Most of them don't break out into stars until year like 4-5 and put up years 1-3 like Cole Kmet there.

That said, a whole bunch don't and you might've just made a Jonnu Smith level mistake.

This is mostly just an argument for not drafting TE's that highly and an argument for overpaying them in free agency

Exactly. TE is one of the hardest positions to play and requires insane athletes to play it. You need to be 6'3" minimum while carrying enough weight to pick up DEs and LBs and be agile enough to run a route. Being a reliable 8-10 yardish target is so insanely valuable that it makes guys like Jason Witten HoFers for a reason.

Sometimes I wonder what would happen if you gave goons the key to a franchise. I just want to watch them pikachu face when they try to assemble a team by only paying the DE, OT, QB, WR, and CB.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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wandler20 posted:

After Andrew Thomas and Saquon both signed within a day, is Barkley really only worth 1/10th of AT?

The rookie wage scale was the worst thing to happen in NFL player history. The owners got the dumbass players association to fight amongst themselves by thinking that rookies were taking the bulk of the money when in reality the owners only pay players 48% of earned revenue. They didn't realize that every position except for QB and OT has about a 4 years or less career in the NFL. Players are locked into long contracts that take up the bulk of their prime years then have to essentially hit the lottery to last until their free agency.

RBs are incredibly valuable. There's a huge difference between someone who can demand several LBs in the box and one that gets big yards against nickel defenses. RBs that can pick up a blitz are as valuable as linemen. RBs that can reliably catch out of the backfield keep safeties and slot corners honest. These are all talents that aren't easy to get all in one package. Unfortunately its also a position that obviously breaks down before the rookie contract is over. It's not that RBs are being phased out of the NFL, it's that teams know they can probably just feel safe in abandoning them after four years.

Owners ideally paying every position except for the skill ones on rookie wage scales is what they're aiming for, RBs are just the first to go.

Every player is worth more than they're paid in the NFL. Players only make 48% of revenue and argued for a rookie wage scale for some unknown reason. The NFLPA is an utter joke of a union.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Kalli posted:

PFF "math" of how good Ben projects each team's pass blocking to be. Which man, lmao if the Pats are projected to have the 8th best.

https://twitter.com/benbbaldwin/status/1684228663343022081




This graph makes a very good point that you can put anything in a graph and people will believe it. No poo poo O-Lines are going to be rated lower if you assign a tiny value to people who haven't played yet. The left side and right side of your o-line being good is only as valuable as how the defense lines up against you. There's a reason some RTs have hugely inflated numbers on that list, look at their LTs and visa versa. Of course teams are going to be abusing the rookie Evan Neal over the top tier Andrew Thomas.

The "data driven" part is just him relisting pass blocking grades that are already based on PFF scores, IE if you let someone through that's a 0, if you pancake them that's a 2, and a 1 is anything in between that the intern watching decides is okay without knowing blocking assignments.

Nuke PFF from orbit.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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I'm also glad Hard Knocks exposed how terrible he is as a coach what with Baker's benching and how he acted in the war room when other coaches tried to talk to him

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Forrest on Fire posted:

Kyler is acting like he's starting week 1.

He will probably start week 4.

He's very reliant on athleticism and his line won't protect him from interior pass rush. That's why he rolls out every play. His deep ball is pretty good. He can't throw short routes. I think it's less drastic than with say Justin Fields, but Murray has been in the league longer. It's partially because he's been stuck in the Kliff experiment

He doesn't have to roll out every play, that's a specific offense ran in Oklahoma for Baker and Kyler that Kliff brought to the NFL. If you run mesh and have an athletic QB the passing window opens up more if your QB can roll out to the side of the field he wants to throw to. Baker's career fell off a cliff when he got a ton of injuries and started taking more hits doing his rollout thing which is a cause of concern for Kyler.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Iodised QQ posted:

Speaking of young wrs and since people have asked about jalin Hyatt in this thread before, he's running with the Giants 1's the past few days and looks great. He's also topped 24mph multiple times thus far in shorts

He's caught at least one bomb touchdown every day but is also adding in actual routes

https://twitter.com/giants/status/1686040070581612544?s=46&t=lHimM6yryXEjSbBJQkXOHg

https://twitter.com/art_stapleton/status/1685694181618946048?s=46&t=lHimM6yryXEjSbBJQkXOHg


Gotta love training camp hype season

Crown me and never doubt any of my draft opinions nothing else before or after this moment matters

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Impossibly Perfect Sphere posted:

I really wonder if he wasn't obese would he have been a franchise QB.

Starters are guys who can make any throw on the field and can also do the correct decision most of the time. Backups are people who can make the correct decision most of the time but can't put the ball everywhere. Guys who can throw the ball anywhere but can't make a correct read are CFL/XFL. Jared Lorenzen was in that last group.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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It wasn't bullshit the way you said it was. He was swapping packs that they were opening on stream so he'd get the more expensive cards.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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three posted:

As long as he only has to make 1 read since he's also the dumbest qb (player?) in this draft.

That cognitive test is a load of hokum and obviously NFL GMs don't care about it

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Thats the lamest loving thing ever lol

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Nodoze posted:

That Wentz season was propped up by insanely high and unsustainable redzone numbers, it was a total fluke and not anyway his real skill level

No. I didn't know thinking Carson Wentz was never that good was a hot take though

I don't like Carson Wentz's play just as much as the next guy but he was legitimately good that year with nobody WRs.

You should never throw out numbers in football stats. Because you imply that it's an anomaly that also implies that normalized stats are factual with significance. Excluding the fact that every single player in the league has fluctuating stats away from their career averages every single year, you assume that a playstyle is unsustainable just because you haven't seen it before. Maybe Wentz is actually a savant in the red zone. Maybe other teams could get better. Why aren't we attacking Patrick Mahomes ridiculous number totals? He put up 5k yards one year, could have easily been accused of it being an anomaly after putting up three 4k yard seasons in a row, then he just did it again last year.

People are weird with their football arguments.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Diqnol posted:

Reminder, Kaepernick was totally blackballed

100% true

Bip Roberts posted:

Also reminder the bears 100% would have won the superbowl in 2018 with kaep. Absolutely plug and play into their offense, excellent defense. Just missed a room temperature qb.

100% not true

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Diva Cupcake posted:

Someone is loving lying. I mean this was Outside The Lines, generally pretty respectable with fact checking since it was an interview with his dad.

https://www.espn.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/9521439/heisman-winner-johnny-manziel-celebrity-derail-texas-aggies-season-espn-magazine

It's public record that his great-grandmother was a millionaire with a trust. He does come from money. How much of his direct family is worth is debatable. I think it's reasonable that members of his family are wealthy, his immediate family wasn't, and that he used his family's reputation to hide the merchandise money.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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three posted:

I know that CJ Stroud is now the new champion of "i am actually smart, the tests are wrong" posters everywhere but he had 4 throws and 1 was directly to a DB in an obvious zone. He looked awful, and trying to excuse it on the team when Davis Mills came in and went 9/12, 99yds, 1 TD, 0 INT shows it was not an untenable situation.

It's the first week of preseason for a rookie

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Kalli posted:

Center highlights, yo I got center highlights here

https://twitter.com/BrandonThornNFL/status/1690454519824490496

Great movement but he completely whiffed the seal off block on 47 and shot on an off balance CB that wasn't going to make the play. There's a difference between playing like Kelce and diagnosing like Kelce.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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three posted:

He should've waited until the playoffs to quit.

In his defense when the chargers got into the playoffs in the 06/07 year everyone just stacked 8 in the box against him. Not even entirely Rivers' fault, it was just the way to kill the Chargers offense.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Ches Neckbeard posted:

Is it really that surprising? Most people's conception of him is a kid who didn't know what a bed was. Between that and old fashioned racism every boomer and otherwise will believe them.

I mean it's a he said/she said at the moment. We've only been told the Touhy's made money off the movie without being given proof from the contract details. We're also talking about Hollywood. It's the land of loving people out of money despite there being a contract. The Touhy's could have easily not gotten paid off the gross profit just as easily as they could have scammed Oher out of millions.

It's really attractive to automatically hate them and it's probable they did something sheisty but you kind of need proof before avowing that one side is evil and the other is good.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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BlindSite posted:

It's crazy when you think about it and how much San Fran gave up to draft him. I know he's still only 23 but still - if ever there was a time it's kinda now.

They gave up a ton because everyone wanted him. He was 6'4 with a cannon and was coming off a 2.7k yard 28 td/0 INT season with another 1100 rushing yards and 14 TDs. NDSU never really taught him to throw anything besides gently caress it deep and then he lost his junior year to the covid season so he was a total project.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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sirtommygunn posted:

I've seen so many discussions over the years about how a bad QB really just needed to sit for a year and they were being RUINED by their team throwing them in the fire before they were ready. Now I'm being told that all that is bullshit and the only way to advance as a player is to wrack up xp on the field.

Both can be true. On the field experience is invaluable. It's why Hyatt was owning practices all week and then had one catch for -4 yards against bracketed coverage. Trey should also probably learn to throw a timing route by now through tons of practice.

Either way QB is, in my opinion, the most difficult position to play in all of sports. It's totally reasonable that people can just suck at it.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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BlindSite posted:

I get the potential they saw, but I still think its kinda crazy considering he wasn't realistically an NFL ready quarterback and it's rare to see that kind of compensation for potential alone. I realise all draft picks are potential alone but on a sliding scale of potential vs tape it was waaaaaay to one side.

It's not too bad anymore. Rookie wage scale made draft picks less valuable. You can just amass players for a couple years on cheap deals then do a big trade up when you see a potential franchise QB. When you get a bunch of holes in your roster because of the trade up you just go fill it in free agency since you can afford it.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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The guys a great magician. Every now and then some magician like this pops up claiming mentalist powers and they get really popular before people realize it's all slight of hand. He was on barstool sports before freaking people out by writing down names and numbers the studio members were thinking about while just slight of handing in the answers right before the reveal.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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mcmagic posted:

I don't think we stated strongly enough how loving moronic it was to not pay AJ Brown and trade him.

A franchise WR is almost as valuable as a franchise QB it was literally one of the dumbest moves in the history of the NFL

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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WRs that aren't the top guys are the equivalent of 5th round running backs Im glad some of you guys are happy with mediocrity

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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They literally just went to the playoffs on the back of their offense what the heck are you talking about

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Metapod posted:

Like 4 franchise wrs are being drafted every draft now while every other position struggles for 1 but okay act like these guys are some rare commodity because the Patriots scout like its 1980 lol

List them

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Metapod posted:

Diggs
Reek
Waddle
Wilson

Chase
Higgins
Cooper

Ridley
Hopkins

Allen
Mwill
Adams

Brown
Smith
Lamb
Mcclaurin

Jefferson
Moore
St brown
Watson

Deebo
Lockett
Metcalf
Kupp

Evans
Godwin
Olave
Thomas

Many of these are #2 options that aren't nearly on the same level as AJ Brown. I'd also almost trade none of the top players on this list because I'd want to retain my GM job.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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kiimo posted:

I'm talking about the #1 WR in the league not coming close to the value of a franchise QB because the best WR in the league didn't win any postseason games but instead got handily beaten by the goddam Giants

Well duh franchise QB's are obviously the most valuable thing in the league but so are WRs. Also the Giants locked down Jefferson with constant safety help and let Cousins just feed Hockenson instead. That's a strategy lots of people face, but sure his 1800 yards are whatever

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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a neat cape posted:

"Franchise" <insert position> is a stupid buzzword that doesn't mean anything

Is it? How else do you want me to describe "Guy you can't possibly trade away and will make your team way better than all but like 5 other people in the league at the same position" in one word?

You need the term or else you get people like this describing guys like Calvin Ridley on the same level as Justin Jefferson

Metapod posted:

No these are all number 1s and franchise guys and are around the same level but people want to nitpick them and tier them because they are so many but the differences are so small

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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a neat cape posted:

Also if that's what Franchise means, people are pretty loving liberal with its use.

Absolutely. There's like four positions in football that can change the scope of your team and only one that can outright make you a perennial playoff team. You can build an offense around a LT or a WR and a solid defense around an elite DE but only QBs are true franchise changers.

Impossibly Perfect Sphere posted:

Randy Moss was traded three times.

First time was because it was the early 2000's and the Vikings were all offended by his 'behavior'. Second time was because Oakland had a dumpster fire QB room and they sold him for peanuts. Him setting NFL records with Tom Brady isn't exactly helping the case of never trade someone like him.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Joe Flacco was elite, admit it, everyone

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Eagles are still an elite team with probably the best o-line and nearly the best d-line in the league. Their QB is confident and their offense is based around athleticism. Unless half the NFC suddenly got a lot stronger I believe they'll do fine.

The NFC is a garbage fire this year.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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NFCE is clownshoes

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Ride my coattails why dont you

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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My main argument is the receivers were no names but the all 22 film clearly shows daniel jones absolutely missing them or not even being aware of them being open

He also had a chad pennington year which is nothing to brag about and Jason Garrett installed an offense that should have worked to his benefits but the man held on to the ball for 5 seconds every snap and killed that air croyell offense

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Giants last year were absurdly strong in random positions but not a lot of key ones. Dexter Lawrence and Andrew Thomas were two of the better players in the league last year and there was a lot of competency throughout other positions. It was just blatantly obvious that their ILBs were over the hill vets and Evan Neal was one of the worst OTs in the league. They just weren't total slouches is all.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Docjowles posted:

Yeah it was the AAF before it became apparent it was a Ponzi scheme and folded. He was just as dogshit as we had always imagined :allears:

It's sort of a ponzi scheme but spring football is really try outs for one specific team. So far in the AAF and XFL they've absolutely stacked only one team in each league with NFL quality players to see how they do.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Diva Cupcake posted:

Maybe Jadeveon Clowney will fully realize his potential in this, his 34 year in the league.

Clowney's full potential was met and was very good for a bit. He got horrifically overhyped coming out because of one play and he was never a generational prospect. He was about as big as other DEs in the league while in college so it inflated his actual value. People going gaga over that forgot about Mario Williams and Julius Peppers, actual giant freak of natures.

His first two years in college were as a TFL machine, not a sack dude, even though he did get a bunch his sophomore year. His game was all about going up high and beating people with strength and length then having a decent disengage to wrap up running backs, which he did in his hype play against Michigan. He came into the league and tore up his knee his rookie season and never quite had the same burst, but the strength was still there. Like he was a legit pro bowler for three years because he was just a TFL machine. He just never was going to be some 15-20 sack guy, even if he was healthy. It wasn't his style.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Grittybeard posted:

'people who pay attention to fanty' Go to hell man. Dude's a good story, no one expected this, no one who is serious is calling him a generational talent. He's doing the best with what he's got going for him.

And...well...I've noticed a particular thing about your preferences for QBs. This is actually worse than your gimmick.

Run first QB's always get different scrutiny than pocket QBs. Remember Fran Tarkenton was kind of the first to do it and everyone loved to hate on him. There isn't much difference in the criticisms with Hurts and Daniel Jones either. You really have to throw more than 22 TDs in a super bowl year for people to trust that you can pass too.

It's also not entirely off base to say that people pay attention a lot to fantasy or just stats in general since most people don't have time to watch every single game.

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Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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RASHIBA WALLACE posted:

I hate the Eagles and think (hope) Hurts/Philly is due for a heavy regression this year, but I don’t think there’s a good faith argument that he had a bad Super Bowl, even with the fumble

I hate the Eagles and think he had an average Super Bowl. His one passing TD was an underthrow into double coverage that AJ Brown came down with and two of his three rushing TDs were both gimmies that RBs could have easily scored.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/202302120phi.htm#all_pbp

Just take a look through the play by play and see how many times 'Jalen Hurts pass completes short' comes up. In his defense he had to be a checkdown machine because of the field situation but 25 of his 27 completions being dump offs is kind of not good. Luckily, again, he's a run first QB, and his running helped keep the Eagles in that game. He just didn't have nearly as good of a game as stats suggest.

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