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lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".

Calvin Johnson Jr. posted:

I don't understand what Hamas' goal was here. They're giving the green light to a military that they are nowhere on par with; pulling a 1500+ *civilian* death toll seems like it would only invite condemnation on themselves almost universally. I mean Israel displaced and continues to displace people and I think most people would agree being driven from their homes en masse would create a lot of hatred and desire for retaliation. Then I look at Israel's side and it seems like they look at this as an existential threat and feel like they can push the line further because of that. I'm trying to be respectful in this thread and I know the conflict is complicated; but it just seems like Hamas self-sabotaged themselves and innocent people are going to pay for it. Israel will have complete air dominance and I don't know what anyone can say to them to stop them from retaliating disproportionately. I can't imagine America intervening on Palestine's behalf either despite what Israel does; isn't this what the evangelicals want?

How do you want to die, go down fighting quick and brutal, or slowly starving in misery while the noose tightens?

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lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".

Bored As gently caress posted:

They still didn't have to kill innocent civilians.

Who, Isreal or Hamas?

lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".

Calvin Johnson Jr. posted:

Yeah, but "die fighting" in the scenario meant deliberately targeting schools and civilians just paints them in the same light, no? I don't support what Israel does either but it just seems like this wasn't the move to get any support and it's hard for me to wrestle with their thinking just being a final "gently caress you." There has to be a longer-term goal and I just don't see it. All I can picture this doing is accelerating Israel's barbarism. Maybe it'll expose them but who will step in to stop them? I can't imagine the US physically intervening...

Just sit around and wait for Isreal to decide that isolating the Gaza strip and continuing to push Palestinians out of the West Bank is a bad thing to do and embrace them with open arms? I'm not condoning their tactics or supporting them, I just see their appeal to a population of overwhelmingly young men that have no future.

Isreal has the power, Palestinians have none. Isreal is the only one that can turn the other cheek here, they are the overall aggressor at the moment. They can stop this any time and withdraw settlers and stop targeting civilian populations. Enduring has not worked out for the Palestinians as Isreal just continues to repress and take. The actions of Hamas are both horrific and futile but this doesn't get any better unless Isreal eradicates the Palestinians or decides to step back unilaterally and show they are working to coexist.

lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".
I think the origins of Hamas and their beliefs not representing Palestinians as a whole, and not being a great justification for Israel's actions/reactions have been pointed out before, do we need to re-hash this yet again? Its pretty circular, both sides racism and targeting of civilians very bad.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".

Alchenar posted:

I'm going to post something a friend of mine posted on Facebook shortly after the attacks.

I think that last paragraph is the thing that most people simply do not understand about the moderate Zionist mindset. It isn't about taking someone else's land. It's not about something promised to them by God. It is about Jewish people getting to decide what their lives are worth, set against two thousand years of others deciding their lives are worth nothing. You are never going to convince them to give that up for 'an acceptable level of antisemitism from the average Western society'.

e: and regardless of whether there are certain points in the narrative above you might question, I think it very eloquently sums up why this attack has struck such a nerve in the Israeli psyche.

I don't want to minimize tragedy but nothing here answers the question "Can you provide a non aparthied state for the Jewish people?". The two fastest growing segments of the population there were ultra orthodox Jews and Palestinians so I'm all ears when it comes happy solutions for everyone.

I feel good about the integration of the Jewish diaspora in the US and am happy to support it. I dont need to worry about providing them their own state if it means constant tragedy and the subjugation of others.

lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".

Lum_ posted:

Hamas wins elections when they happen. (They don’t happen that often.)

Which Palestinian faction do you expect would take power and protect Jews and other ethnic minorities under its rule?

I thought Hamas took control of Gaza from Fatah by force, and now all aid, or what there is, goes through them. They are in control through force, not because they are legitimately elected no? Not that there's been any chance at nurturing Palistinian democracy or doing any state building as Isreal would not allow it. So we really have no idea.

lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".

psydude posted:

I get your point, and I don't think you're wrong per se, but keep in mind that Israel has been surrounded by hostile armed nations for a significant part of its existence and has had to fight them in major wars on at least 3 occasions. So the "us against the world" mindset is rooted in the historic struggle, not necessarily the modern day power imbalance.

The birth of Isreal wasn't exactly a clean affair if you really want to go back. The early believers were not nice people, although coming from the Holocaust its not like they didn't have cause. I'm just not sure that cause was with the Palestinians.

Sykes-Picot was just more arbitrary lines drawn on a map leading to tribal conflict, same as many African countries.

lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".

mlmp08 posted:

56 crew is an abnormally large number for a ship like this. Where are you reading that number?

PCTC, I think the Japanese sail those with minimal crew so under 20 usually unless there's cadets or whatnot? They don't have 56 staterooms on board, I know that.

lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".

FrozenVent posted:

Yes, theoretically, but it doesn’t happen very often and you have insurance anyway so… the calculus still works out in favour of the FOC.

The Maersk Alabama was an outlier, and there’s still a part of me that thinks it was where it was on its own on purpose to motivate / justify US intervention in the Somalian piracy situation. Because while I understand the political silliness of the USAID food program… it’s an impressive gently caress up.

Alabama had low free board and was slow and they didn't carry a security team. She was on a triangle from Somalia to like Sri Lanka and Djibouti or somewhere else I think because someone needs to supply all the small rear end bases or run food aid. She was also an MSP vessel chartered from Maersk to Waterman/Central Gulf, now Seabulk, and there's government cargo preference and poo poo, so they were doing a profitable government run but there isn't enough cargo for two vessels. She had a reason to be there, had been making the run for awhile, was a sitting duck, Phillips is an idiot and a trash captain.

As far as US assets in the area, they would have responded to these attacks. Attacks on US assets are just more visible because they are rarer and its the US. When an attack happens, friendly navy's have to be close enough to respond. Range on a helicopter is only like 200 miles which is nothing. So the US Navy will respond to other flags if they are in range and can get there in time.

lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".

A.o.D. posted:

There are a few people who are justifiably upset and frustrated about a dire situation they feel powerless to change. I think that feeling might be causing them to lash out.

They should take a step back from the news and other people, and seek therapy then. Lashing out at others isn't a good coping mechanism.

lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".
Theres no way to create objective rules with the amount of subjectivity, and noone has the time or energy to police this thread with a scalpel and get everything right. Only dishonorable posters bitch about 6ers anyways. Except me, I'm innocent of all crimes.

If you post in this thread you should be aware you're juggling dynamite so act appropriately.

lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".

bulletsponge13 posted:

Did I misread Buuni posts? Because I'm not seeing what they are being accused of advocating.

US gives aid to Isreal and Palestine. The aid getting to Palestine is dependent on the Isrealis and GOP (I think) so cutting off the Isreali aid would cut off the Palestinian aid or something. Buuni is positing that sending no aid to either is the lesser of two evils. I think?

You're damned whatever position you take if thats correct.

Edit: Oh, also Donald Trump is preferable in this situation cause he would cut off the aid, I forgot that key point. Which is a little.....

lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".

Proud Christian Mom posted:

Zionists have gotten their feelings hurt because Palestinians just won't lay down and die so now we're going to start bringing down the legal apparatus on people who make genocide supporters feel uncomfortable

https://twitter.com/GovKathyHochul/status/1733529147912155425?t=sJVCHD2smERBC5Ufn63d8g&s=19

This comes from college presidents testifying to congress that calling for genocide isn't punishable on campus right? I'm not sure why this is a bad thing? UPenns president resigned as well.

lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".

Muscle Tracer posted:

As far as I can tell, nobody testified that is wasn't punishable, only that under some conceivable circumstances it wouldn't technically violate bullying and harrassment policies specifically. Most of the testimony I could actually find transcripts of was about how easy it WOULD be to still break those policies.

It's also just notable to see how hard "free speech on campus" crusaders do a 180 when the speech in question is not about trans people or race science.

I didn't bother watching the testimony. I still don't have a problem with punishing calls for genocide on campus.

lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".

Cugel the Clever posted:

Jewish Currents' has had some great podcasts in the last few months. The voices of non-/anti-Zionist Jews don't get a significant place in mainstream discussions, which unfortunately plays into the hands of those who want to make this conflict into one which is essentially Jewish—whether right-wing Israelis advancing ethnosupremacist policies or eclectic antisemites taking advantage of the situation to advance anti-Jewish hatred.

That's a misinterpretation of their positions. A misinterpretation being exploited and propagated by ardently right-wing figures who don't give a single gently caress about the wellbeing of Jews as part of a longstanding campaign against freedom of speech and academics.

I'm going off NY Democrat Governor Hochuls statement. I didn't bother listening to the testimony so someone has already clarified that.

lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".
I recall Jordan having Palestinian refugee camps that are indeed destabilizing or a focal point for the populace, they might provide examples of the consequences.

lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".

pantslesswithwolves posted:

Lebanon is the country that has the biggest problems with its Palestinian refugee camps. They're entirely self-policed (the Lebanese Armed Forces rarely if ever goes into them) and there are frequent clashes between rival militant groups. It's a pretty big mess and understandably none of the surrounding countries want that.

This is such a craven and awful thing that of course Sisi would probably do it. But North Sinai has had its own issues with Islamist insurgents going back well over a decade, and plunking down a bunch of "totally-not-refugees, bro, they're temporary guests" would absolutely give them a fresh new pool of people to recruit from.

Jordan's case included help from the UN or their neighbors, including cash payments, that then created inflation and destabilizing a nominally stable state. Even Isreal shouldn't have an interest due to the dangers of unstable neighbors.

lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".

SMEGMA_MAIL posted:

Lovely. To clarify, you're against using military force against the IDF to stop a genocide, but you're presumably okay with bombing Yemen?

He didn't come anywhere near to saying this.

Indiscriminate attacks against civilians are bad.

lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".

SMEGMA_MAIL posted:

I fully agree, though I don't think we should immediately resort to dropping JDAMs on IDF division HQs as the first option. Maybe the second.

Houthis, Isrealis, Hamas are all performing indiscriminate acts against civilians. I have no need to support one over the other. I can understand the cycle of violence that got us here while realizing that continued eye for an eye leads nowhere.

Edit: the coalition bombing campaign has focused on ASM launchers. Indiscriminate attacks against shipping in one of the busiest lanes doesn't really help their cause or support their professed justification. There are also carry on effects when it comes to world trade, with costs of shipping increasing by 1 million either through extra fuel around the Cape or increased insurance through a war zone. This pushes into food and fuel costs across the world.

lightpole fucked around with this message at 02:41 on Jan 30, 2024

lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".
Military targets would be legitimate. Attacks against unaffiliated civilians illegitimate.

lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".
One of the more recent attacks was on the Marlin Luanda, operated by Oceonix Svcs Ltd (UK registered) on behalf of Trafigura (Singapore company), carrying oil, flagged Marshal Islands, crewed by 22 Indians and a Bangladeshi I think. You're running a pretty thin legitimate target argument to say the least so I'm not going to bother continuing with this.

Edit: Carrying Russian naphtha to Singapore.

lightpole fucked around with this message at 03:11 on Jan 30, 2024

lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".

The Aardvark posted:

Ah so genocide is the main course.

Youre giving me a trolley problem and telling me I'm wrong if I choose any course but the one you dictate. I dont feel the need to support a lesser evil.

Just in case you come at me with something about shipping being only a big deal to the US, UK, and Isreal:

The US isn't affected by this outside of apples not getting to the 5th fleet currently. There is next to no Asia-US trade moving through there. They would be attacking US civilians moving cargo of very little military value without having any effect on the US economy outside of garunteeing reprisals.

The UK is a footnote here, the operator of the ML is based in the UK but thats meaningless when it comes to shipping.

Isreal probably isn't greatly affected. I dont really care to look.

The big picture is that 90% of everything moves on water with a decent amount of that passing through the Suez. This can include things like Ukrainian grain for East Africa or goods moving back. In the short term, there's some bumps as supply chains adjust. Insurance costs have gone from like 20k up to 1kk, about the same as fuel costs for the trip around the Cape. Currently this isn't a big deal. Long term, this can disrupt trade in a big way, up to and including creating a global recession. Many of these costs are invisible and won't have any affect on the US but they will definitely start to hit the world's poor as they will notice those price rises.

I have no idea how this will play out if it continues since supply chains are extremely complex. It just won't work out in the way many people assume.

I do support the US ensuring freedom of navigation as that is a cornerstone of liberal democracy. Increased trade is good for the world.

lightpole fucked around with this message at 11:43 on Jan 30, 2024

lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".
How come every post against is just a bingo card of fallacies instead of trying to address concerns and win people over

lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".

A.o.D. posted:

What's even worse is that right after this started most of us were saying "Yup, this is looking like genocide" and really, nothing's changed. Maybe we're not shouting into the void loudly enough?

Nope you have to pick a side. Not the Houthis? Well good luck trying to wash that blood off your hands you are pulling the trigger yourself.


gently caress I work with Yemenis, there are a lot in the US merchant marine. Houthis have a long way to go before I'll be backing their legitimacy.

lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".
War risk insurance is about 1kk while fuel costs around the Cape are also 1kk. Usually it would be like 20k so there's a huge increase, and shipping is generally a low margin business and time is always a factor.

I dont think you understand shipping. Everyone on board is expendable to the company, they are basically coffin ships and those have been a thing for centuries. Insurance bears the cost, the lives of the sailors are irrelevant, the expectation is that they die. If they survive, gently caress it just give them checks and run the company through bankruptcy before they have time to make it to the bank. Companies had no trouble running ships through there unprotected when piracy was rampant, and had no problem leaving the ships and crew to rot in Somalia instead of bothering with paying anything. Companies frequently lay ships up around the world when the vessel is too old or rates are in the dumps and abandon them and the crew.

We just got war risk rates on MLL upped in our contract but it sounds like MSC guys just get to suffer. I wonder why they can't get people. Ours is better also, we don't need to actually be hit to collect, just a clear target of attack.

It might have been the Firm of Girddlestone from Arthur Conan Doyle but it also might have been something from Kipling that was a good window into the old days I forget.

lightpole fucked around with this message at 00:55 on Mar 7, 2024

lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".

Kchama posted:

I do think it is kind of weird to purely blame the companies trying to ship freight through the Red Sea and not the people deliberately firing missiles at their ships. It is only a warzone because a different party is choosing to make it a warzone. According to the Houthis, most of these ships shouldn't have any worry at all, but the people killed were completely unrelated to the Gazan genocide.

The posts blaming the Houthis are further up the thread.

the JJ posted:

I mean, not to put a fine point on it, but the US and its proxies have seen fit to kill probably more than 2 people completely unrelated to the Houthis specifically by targeting shipping.

[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016%E2%80%93present)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockade_of_Yemen

And now they're watching another US proxy/affiliated state conduct and even more devastating attack (including interdicting humanitarian supplies).

By the standards of US interventions, achieving this https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4501958-houthi-fight-pentagon-cost/amp/ while only killing 2 civilians is quite restrained. We've almost certainly killed as many civilians in Yemen to kill a single AQ leader.

It's not that killing civilians is okay, it's just that by the standards of the atrocities in the region... hell, by the standards of other atrocities the Houthis have committed, this is pretty tame.

This is whattaboutism and is irrelevant. Nobody has absolved the US of guilt in any of this or cares to try as far as I've seen. Noone supports Isreal beyond saying the initial Hamas attack was very very bad. Almost everyone supports a free Palestine.

lightpole fucked around with this message at 05:14 on Mar 7, 2024

lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".

the JJ posted:

Not whataboutism, just geopolitics. I'm not saying 'it's okay'. I'm saying it's neither random nor unprecedented, nor entirely unprovoked.

Russia invades Ukraine. US (attempts) to damage Russia economically and supplies arms to Ukraine, including some that have led to civilian deaths. Partly because we want to save Ukrainian lives, partly to shape Russian behavior, so that they (or other would be aggressors) think twice about doing it again. If they back out, we (presumably) back off sanctions, and Russians won't die at the end of NATO weapons.

Israel invades Gaza. Houthis can't provide HIMARS, but they can put pressure on US economically. Instead of controlling SWIFT, they control launch pads and munitions that can teach out into a global choke point. The goal isn't to sink ships for the lulz, they're perfectly happy if the ships go around.

But just like we say to banks 'hey, we know it's none of your business what happens in Ukraine, but if you handle transactions for these Russians, we'll arrest you and seize your assets etc. Etc. Sorry, not your fault, but we have to punish the Russians. If that upsets you, take it up with Putin.' Do the sanctions cripple Russian? Have they ended the war? No. But theoretically it adds friction and costs to the Russians in a way that fall short of, say, nuking a city, which is at the high end of deterrent options.

The Houthis say to shipping companies 'hey, if you go in the Red Sea, we might blow you up. Nothing personal, we just have to put pressure on the Americans. If that upsets you, take it up with Netanyahu.' Its not ending the war, but it's adding friction and literally upping the general cost of doing business.

Not pro-Houthi, just... frustrated by the American tendency to look at non Western powers doing what we think of as normal Western powers poo poo and going all 'what are these savages doing, flailing about at random'.

Like the point is to make a previously safe thing unsafe. Just like the US then makes certain places in Yemen unsafe to be.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_missile_strikes_in_Yemen

"On 3 January 2024, the United States and a group of countries issued an ultimatum to the Houthis to stop their activities.[40] In the days leading up to the strike, members of the US Congress and The Pentagon demanded a strong and deterrent response to the Houthis.[41]"

This too results in innocent bystanders dying.

Insofar as I have an ethical judgment, I'd say yeah, as far as pressure per civilian death, yes, this is pretty sane. That's not whataboutism, that's just efficiency metrics. These aren't random targets, they could (and have) point those missiles at Saudi cities. Other Iranian proxies in the region do poo poo like suicide bombs and shoot up music festivals. Selectively targeting big rear end economic targets with relatively few sailors on board is a much, much preferable option.

Yes, moving up to attack civilian shipping is an escalation. It's a remarkably proportionate escalation considering that they're explicitly responding to poo poo like this: https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/05/middleeast/israel-fire-palestinians-aid-northern-gaza-intl/index.html.

So in case you missed it, this does not put pressure on the US or the Isrealis. Absolutely 0 pressure. As far as your ethical judgement pressure per civilian death along with those wonderful efficiency metrics go gently caress yourself you stupid motherfucker.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".

Woodchip posted:

So is this pier happening or has the idea been jetty-isioned?

From 2 weeks ago:

lightpole posted:

For the Gaza port, the Army's 7th Transportation Brigade will send 2 LSVs and 3 LCUs, which will take 30 days to get there, with a MARAD LMSR to do all the really heavy lifting.

A lot of this is really dumb since they've been trying to get rid of their vessels and this capability, and the expeditionary support docks are laid up due to phase down with that initiative.

Those army vessels have to detour south to avoid weather and are slow. Support docks and heavy lift ships should be moving those vessels and supplies but we are losing that capability.

I think we did 10 days USEC to Port Said for comparison.

lightpole fucked around with this message at 15:18 on Mar 27, 2024

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lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".

A.o.D. posted:

I thought the pier was floating there on Army boats?


For the Gaza port, the Army's 7th Transportation Brigade will send 2 LSVs and 3 LCUs, which will take 30 days to get there, with a MARAD LMSR to do all the really heavy lifting.

A lot of this is really dumb since they've been trying to get rid of their vessels and this capability, and the expeditionary support docks are laid up due to phase down with that initiative.


The Bobo is the LMSR carrying the important poo poo. The LSVs and LCUs aren't really made to move a lot of poo poo thousands of miles and need a mother vessel to operate from.

The LMSRs are much faster than the LSVs anyways so the delay shouldn't be that bad.

lightpole fucked around with this message at 14:58 on Apr 18, 2024

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