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Ardennes posted:Nothing like a full bore proxy war I guess, I wonder how the US plans on getting weapons to the "right guys." They're deluding themselves if they think they can control the distribution of weapons heading to Syria once they cross the border. On TV I'm sure they'll say that all efforts are being made to funnel the weapons to the right groups, but unless US troops are physically in Syria handling the distribution of weapons there's no way to ensure they end up in the "right hands". I think they know this too.
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Jun 13, 2013 23:32
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Phlegmish posted:I have no idea who that is, but that's a pretty cool name. Reminds me of that Simpsons episode. She's the torch bearer for the liberal interventionist movement and Obama's nominee to replace Susan Rice as Ambassador to the UN.
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Jun 13, 2013 23:32
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Ardennes posted:Nothing like a full bore proxy war I guess, I wonder how the US plans on getting weapons to the "right guys." Just give it to our buds the Saudis, they know the region well and will put the arms to maximum use.
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Jun 13, 2013 23:32
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New Division posted:They're deluding themselves if they think they can control the distribution of weapons heading to Syria once they cross the border. On TV I'm sure they'll say that all efforts are being made to funnel the weapons to the right groups, but unless US troops are physically in Syria handling the distribution of weapons there's no way to ensure they end up in the "right hands". I think they know this too. So does it mean support will be extremely limited and mostly for PR or they will just let open the floodgates like Afghanistan in the 80s and let god sort it out?
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Jun 13, 2013 23:36
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Standing by to be shocked, SHOCKED when it turns out these weapons will end up in the hands of bad people and get used to do bad things.
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Jun 13, 2013 23:39
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A Large Dinger posted:Brown Moses, do you have any thoughts as to any possible implications of this sudden appearance of wire guided missiles? Such as where they might be coming from, etc. Also, don't wire guided missiles require some kind of training to use? I do, I can't say more, but keep an eye on the news in the next week or so. I'd like to say more, but I won't as a professional courtesy.
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Jun 13, 2013 23:41
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Ardennes posted:So does it mean support will be extremely limited and mostly for PR or they will just let open the floodgates like Afghanistan in the 80s and let god sort it out? We'll have to see. I don't think anything is going to happen immediately.
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Jun 13, 2013 23:42
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White House hasn't yet stated that they'd be arming the rebels, that's left intentionally vague. Possibilities range from sharing real time intelligence data from US satellites to training to non-weapon equipment and supplies.quote:[deputy national security advisor] Ben Rhodes said the president had made the decision to increase assistance, including "military support", to the opposition's Supreme Military Council (SMC). It doesn't even sound like they are sure what to do now. President McCain would have had the show already started!  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-22899289 No mention of arms in particular VVVVV Nenonen fucked around with this message at 23:46 on Jun 13, 2013 |
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Jun 13, 2013 23:43
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Is there any other sources stating the U.S. is definitely going to arm the rebels besides the Qatar Royal Family's official mouthpiece?
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Jun 13, 2013 23:45
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We've escalated to giving them coffins. After all, they're going to be needing them! 
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Jun 13, 2013 23:45
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A Large Dinger posted:Brown Moses, do you have any thoughts as to any possible implications of this sudden appearance of wire guided missiles? Such as where they might be coming from, etc. Also, don't wire guided missiles require some kind of training to use? Definitely yes on the training if it's being shown as effective, but which ones have showed up? I've missed that. Is it the MILAN again? As a general rule any weapon system you see showing up in such a way as to indicate state backing (eg. multiple sightings in a short period of a previously rare system) is going to come with training. It's part of the standard covert arms funneling playbook.
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Jun 13, 2013 23:50
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Brown Moses posted:I do, I can't say more, but keep an eye on the news in the next week or so. I'd like to say more, but I won't as a professional courtesy. I understand, thanks for the amazing blog by the way I never post so I don't think I've ever thanked you. Wirth1000, I could be very wrong but I think it is very significant that it's Al-Jazeera making the most definitive statement. I also think it is very significant that the wire guided missiles are popping up only in the North, considering what country is north of Syria. Farraday, from what I can tell it appears to be some type of SS-11-esque deal. I'm no Brown Moses though so take that with a grain of salt. Edit again, Farraday, check 0:44 in this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xmnq7BB1tj8 Mixodorian fucked around with this message at 23:57 on Jun 13, 2013 |
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Jun 13, 2013 23:51
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So we are at a pretty much open-ended proxy war state then. I'm not sure if I have missed it along the way, but has there been any direct signs of Saudi involvement up to this point?
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Jun 13, 2013 23:54
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A Large Dinger posted:I understand, thanks for the amazing blog by the way I never post so I don't think I've ever thanked you. Hmm my first guess would be an AT-3 Sagger(9K11 Malyutka) or variant thereof. It's something that should be native to the Syrian Army, but despite that if they've suddenly popped up in numbers you're probably still looking at outside sourcing.
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Jun 14, 2013 00:09
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farraday posted:Hmm my first guess would be an AT-3 Sagger(9K11 Malyutka) or variant thereof. Its a 9M113 Konkurs. Says so in the title of other uploads of this video. Also seen in numerous other videos from recent weeks.
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Jun 14, 2013 00:29
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LegendaryFrog posted:So we are at a pretty much open-ended proxy war state then. I'm not sure if I have missed it along the way, but has there been any direct signs of Saudi involvement up to this point? There's no direct proof of anyone assisting, really, but the Gulf states including Saudi Arabia have been arming and supporting the rebels for some time now.
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Jun 14, 2013 00:36
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Herostratus posted:Its a 9M113 Konkurs. Says so in the title of other uploads of this video. Also seen in numerous other videos from recent weeks. Really? My impression was that the AT-5 was tube fired, where as the firing apparatus for the missile in question is pretty clearly something like the briefcase configuration for the Sagger. Perhaps it is an AT-5 variant that can be fired from the briefcase, I am not against being wrong, but I'm also not going to trust weapons names from youtube. Edit// As an example, here's a similar video with a tube fired AT-5 here In any case I would say they almost certainly have received training on how to use the Russian wired-guided AT missiles and have received a supply of them. Unless they get identified as a specific variant though you'd need some other information to identify the likely source. farraday fucked around with this message at 00:43 on Jun 14, 2013 |
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Jun 14, 2013 00:36
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New Division posted:They're deluding themselves if they think they can control the distribution of weapons heading to Syria once they cross the border. On TV I'm sure they'll say that all efforts are being made to funnel the weapons to the right groups, but unless US troops are physically in Syria handling the distribution of weapons there's no way to ensure they end up in the "right hands". I think they know this too. Of course they know it, it's why they've been avoiding doing it in the public eye for so long and why they're still dragging their heels even now. If the administration had it's way they'd never have to talk or even think about Syria again.
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Jun 14, 2013 00:39
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Also, since this seems to be the general ME thread, is anyone else worried about protests starting up in Iran like in 09 once Rowhani loses? Now I'm not saying for sure he's going to lose, but it seems more likely Ghalibaf will win, who is more socially conservative than Rowhani who as seen as the reformer. From what I've seen from Iranians online who are obviously going to be the younger population, Rowhani losing is going to be seen as fraudulent again and it seems like that segment of the population is ready to be up in arms in a heart beat. I hate that the Iranian election campaign cycle is only 3 weeks, it makes it hard to figure out what's going on. And for those who don't know, Iran is about 2/3 socially conservative and 1/3 liberal to be general. My guess is Rowhani will win the first round as the split between social conservatives will cause Ghalibaf to lose the first round but win the second when it's just him vs Rowhani. I'm worried about Iran heading down the path that those in Turkey are on now.
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Jun 14, 2013 00:39
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New Division posted:They're deluding themselves if they think they can control the distribution of weapons heading to Syria once they cross the border. On TV I'm sure they'll say that all efforts are being made to funnel the weapons to the right groups, but unless US troops are physically in Syria handling the distribution of weapons there's no way to ensure they end up in the "right hands". I think they know this too. It's not delusion, it's just a way of doing it without being criticized until much later. They know full well the way the rebel groups coordinate and freely exchange materiel. They're probably fine with a few European airliners being destroyed if it means they can help destabilize an enemy of Israel.
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Jun 14, 2013 00:43
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So, who is going to be responsible for keeping Sunni Death Squads from running around looking for pro-government forces/supporters if this ends in the rebels favor? Where will Hezbollah go (assuming Lebanon doesn't erupt into a civil war) after this? Will they get safe passage there? What are the odds the sides don't just flip and a long term Shi'ite insurgency doesn't form with support from Iran? This whole thing is loving stupid. Let the two sides fight it out without us. The Israelis can deal with any spillover that might threaten them; neither side would want to draw them in on this. LegendaryFrog posted:So we are at a pretty much open-ended proxy war state then. I'm not sure if I have missed it along the way, but has there been any direct signs of Saudi involvement up to this point? I think they are providing funding but I'm not sure about arms. EDIT - If we have to give the rebels weapons, why not larger things like tanks and vehicle mounted AA? Those would be much easier to track. Obviously they wouldnt be state of the art but they wouldn't have to be to counter the government's forces. pro starcraft loser fucked around with this message at 00:46 on Jun 14, 2013 |
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Jun 14, 2013 00:43
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farraday posted:Really? My impression was that the AT-5 was tube fired, where as the firing apparatus for the missile in question is pretty clearly something like the briefcase configuration for the Sagger. Perhaps it is an AT-5 variant that can be fired from the briefcase, I am not against being wrong, but I'm also not going to trust weapons names from youtube. No, you're actually right. I was thinking of the missile in the first attack in that video and didn't realize you guys were talking about the one at 0:44. My bad.
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Jun 14, 2013 00:43
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Just The Facts posted:So, who is going to be responsible for keeping Sunni Death Squads from running around looking for pro-government forces/supporters if this ends in the rebels favor? I'm kind of curious what happens to the chemical weapons. Destroying them all through bombing is not realistic at all, and the rebels certainly can't be counted on to reliably secure them. So whenever the Syrian government finally collapses it's going to be really easy to sneak them somewhere else. Wouldn't be surprised if some of them end up in Jordan, Lebanon or even Israel. This is going to be a damned train wreck. Well, moreso than it already is.
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Jun 14, 2013 00:51
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VikingSkull posted:Just give it to our buds the Saudis, they know the region well and will put the arms to maximum use. Better them than the Qataris, to be honest. KSA has had issues with terrorism, attempted assassinations of its royal family members, and shares a border with Yemen so at least they have a better understanding of blowback than the Qataris, whose foreign policy at this point is basically "throw guns and money everywhere and see who likes us when the dust settles."
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Jun 14, 2013 00:54
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New Division posted:I'm kind of curious what happens to the chemical weapons. Destroying them all through bombing is not realistic at all, and the rebels certainly can't be counted on to reliably secure them. So whenever the Syrian government finally collapses it's going to be really easy to sneak them somewhere else. Remember those ex-Navy Seals that died in the attacks on Benghazi, and how they were there tracking and obtaining MANPADs from the Libyan war? I'd imagine a similar strategy with the weapons in Syria.
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Jun 14, 2013 00:54
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A Large Dinger posted:Also, since this seems to be the general ME thread, is anyone else worried about protests starting up in Iran like in 09 once Rowhani loses? Now I'm not saying for sure he's going to lose, but it seems more likely Ghalibaf will win, who is more socially conservative than Rowhani who as seen as the reformer. It could happen, but Rowhani seems to actually have significant support from the clerics which might make him the actual "establishment" figure even if he is more of a reformer. I guess we will have to wait and see, it is something that isn't that easy to predict. Sheer political fatigue might dampen the possibility or extremely high inflation might work against the government. Btw, I don't think the war will end quickly for either side. While arms and money have been flowing in, very little of it seems like true heavy weaponry which means it continue to be mostly a small arms conflict with some rocket and artillery use here and there. The government does still have heavy weapons but obviously not enough to win the conflict on their own and they have taken obvious losses as time had gone on. I could see the war bog down even further into a war of attrition.
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Jun 14, 2013 00:55
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New Division posted:I'm kind of curious what happens to the chemical weapons. Destroying them all through bombing is not realistic at all, and the rebels certainly can't be counted on to reliably secure them. So whenever the Syrian government finally collapses it's going to be really easy to sneak them somewhere else. I'm sure we'll get a promise from the "good" rebels they will secure the sites ASAP. This will undoubtedly be nothing more then a defense of these sites from the "bad" rebels until American and European special forces can get in and destroy the weapons.
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Jun 14, 2013 00:58
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Word on the street in Iran is that things are hosed, a lot of people aren't going to vote. Apparently there aren't even election posters up or people talking about an election besides it being bullshit. Take that as you will.
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Jun 14, 2013 01:02
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You know, as someone of Persian ethnicity and with direct cultural & familial connections with Iran, I always find it a bit amusing seeing people here in Canada or North American (or the West in general) posts seemingly giving the Iranian Presidency or its elections any sort of legitimacy. Like the illusion of some sort of political hierarchy and structure has any sort of meaning or substance like it does in western democratic countries. Nothing more than a puppet position and lightning rod for scorn. A buffer. Khameinei is the Dictator for Life and the IRGC run the whole drat country and it's all set up to promote the most fanatic loyalists and oppress everyone else. Ahmadinjaed, the tremondous idiot, tried to shift the balance of power and has been burned for it. Who knows if protests are going to break out like in 2009. The Basij and general surveillance and oppression has increased for months now. Trying to call family in Iran is a bit of a crapshoot with more-than-usual flakey connections and Skype is more unreliable than ever. The establishment knows what to expect and is steeling themselves for it. Like I said the country is set up by the mullahs to allow the biggest loyalists and/or general Islamic fanatics to rise to the top. There were some funny anecdotes from my cousins who did their mandatory conscription in the army and they were telling me stories about how the soldiers with the longest beards were typically given the cushiest positions or just general leniency when it came to discipline.
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Jun 14, 2013 01:09
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Wirth1000 posted:You know, as someone of Persian ethnicity and with direct cultural & familial connections with Iran, I always find it a bit amusing seeing people here in Canada or North American (or the West in general) posts seemingly giving the Iranian Presidency or its elections any sort of legitimacy. Like the illusion of some sort of political hierarchy and structure has any sort of meaning or substance like it does in western democratic countries. Nothing more than a puppet position and lightning rod for scorn. A buffer. Khameinei is the Dictator for Life and the IRGC run the whole drat country and it's all set up to promote the most fanatic loyalists and oppress everyone else. Ahmadinjaed, the tremondous idiot, tried to shift the balance of power and has been burned for it. That's cool bro, but it's not true. Sorry about your ethnicity
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Jun 14, 2013 01:11
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Just The Facts posted:So, who is going to be responsible for keeping Sunni Death Squads from running around looking for pro-government forces/supporters if this ends in the rebels favor? Unfortunately letting the two sides fight it out isn't going to happen from a neutral point of view, since Russia and Iran have provided Aid to one side of the conflict for two years and as such has turned this into a proxy war already. It appears they picked the side that represents a minority and the one that's never able to 'win' the war (though others don't agree on this). If the current status quo doesn't change the war could continue for years and years until there's nothing left to destroy. An international peacekeeping force could prevent a new Rwanda if it was carried out properly, but this isn't going to happen. Whatever the motives the US has behind supporting rebels, I just secretly hope it could change the balance of power and bring the war to an end faster (without wanting to support proxy warfare myself). The chance of a genocide taking place will always be there, with or without US support. Pieter Pan fucked around with this message at 01:20 on Jun 14, 2013 |
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Jun 14, 2013 01:16
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From Iraqi Kurdistan, anti-Iranian racism on the rise
az jan jananam fucked around with this message at 01:26 on Jun 14, 2013 |
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Jun 14, 2013 01:17
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Wow, that's some incredibly specific racism. How would they even know if someone's Iranian? Are they just that good at physical anthropology?
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Jun 14, 2013 01:19
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Pieter posted:Unfortunately letting the two sides fight it out isn't going to happen from a neutral point of view, since Russia has provided Aid to one side of the conflict for two years and as such has turned this into a proxy war already. It appears they picked the side that represents a minority and the one that's never able to 'win' the war (though others don't agree on this). If the current status quo doesn't change the war could continue for years and years until there's nothing left to destroy. An international peacekeeping force could prevent a new Rwanda if it was carried out properly, but this isn't going to happen. Whatever the motives the US has behind supporting rebels, I just secretly hope it could change the balance of power and bring the war to an end faster. The chance of a genocide taking place will always be there, with or without US support. Well hell, if you want the war to end the fastest, the US could just support the Assad regime. Arming the rebels is a big risk with a huge downside. It could make the war drag on for all we know, and the longer it drags on the worse the atrocities will be. And that's before you even consider the possible long term implications of American weapons just kind of floating around out there.
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Jun 14, 2013 01:21
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Wirth1000 posted:You know, as someone of Persian ethnicity and with direct cultural & familial connections with Iran, I always find it a bit amusing seeing people here in Canada or North American (or the West in general) posts seemingly giving the Iranian Presidency or its elections any sort of legitimacy. Like the illusion of some sort of political hierarchy and structure has any sort of meaning or substance like it does in western democratic countries. I don't know if you noticed, but Ahmedinejad has turned on the religious right recently. I know the voting process itself is screwy in Iran and like in the US real progressives can never beat the terrible established names, but it's not all totally fraudulent like you're describing just like it isn't in the US.
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Jun 14, 2013 01:22
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persumably if they speak farsi or have a farsia accent. BTW, this is probably a fallout of the Syrian conflict, where Iran is siding with the Assad regime, and not racism per se. Herostratus fucked around with this message at 01:29 on Jun 14, 2013 |
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Jun 14, 2013 01:27
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Phlegmish posted:Wow, that's some incredibly specific racism. How would they even know if someone's Iranian? Are they just that good at physical anthropology? Their language+accent probably. It's a pretty silly sign because none of the writing is in Persian so an Iranian would have no way of knowing. Herostratus posted:BTW, this is probably a fallout of the Syrian conflict, where Iran is siding with the Assad regime, and not racism per se. Well yes but it's obviously still racism. az jan jananam fucked around with this message at 01:30 on Jun 14, 2013 |
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Jun 14, 2013 01:27
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A Large Dinger posted:I don't know if you noticed, but Ahmedinejad has turned on the religious right recently. I know the voting process itself is screwy in Iran and like in the US real progressives can never beat the terrible established names, but it's not all totally fraudulent like you're describing just like it isn't in the US. Ahmadinejad and every politician who ever agreed with him got politically burnt at the stake, so he's kind of a bad example if you're trying to show a freedom for politicians to express what they believe.
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Jun 14, 2013 01:30
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Pieter posted:Unfortunately letting the two sides fight it out isn't going to happen from a neutral point of view, since Russia and Iran have provided Aid to one side of the conflict for two years and as such has turned this into a proxy war already. It appears they picked the side that represents a minority and the one that's never able to 'win' the war (though others don't agree on this). If the current status quo doesn't change the war could continue for years and years until there's nothing left to destroy. An international peacekeeping force could prevent a new Rwanda if it was carried out properly, but this isn't going to happen. Whatever the motives the US has behind supporting rebels, I just secretly hope it could change the balance of power and bring the war to an end faster (without wanting to support proxy warfare myself). The chance of a genocide taking place will always be there, with or without US support. Agreed for the most part, but I just don't see any reason to help anyone who is affiliated with AQ in any way. Make AQ absolute poison to anyone and anything that comes in contact with it. On the topic of the recent revelation chemical weapons have been used by the government, I cannot figure out why they would possibly use them. I could understand gassing an entire city (since most chemical weapons are WMD in the classic sense) in a fit of rage/desperation but to deploy a weapon which pretty much guarantees Western involvement for 150 people makes no sense at all. Why not just drop a few more conventional bombs? ANYTHING but gas would have pretty much been ignored.
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Jun 14, 2013 01:30
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Volkerball posted:Ahmadinejad and every politician who ever agreed with him got politically burnt at the stake, so he's kind of a bad example if you're trying to show a freedom for politicians to express what they believe. No I know, but the poster I quoted appeared to be saying that Ahmedinejad is in the pocket of Khamenei and that whoever wins this time around will be as well. This is the attitude of a lot of the Iranian youth afaik too, which isn't good.
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Jun 14, 2013 01:34
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