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Aurubin posted:Was reading a Washington Post article about how, in the face of the rise of ISIS, it would behoove the west to tacitly back Assad. I remember reading a New Republic expose on Bashar that said that this was exactly his plan. What's the saying, inject jihad into an uprising to poison it? How would that plan even work, "Hey guys, Assad is using chemical weapons on his own civilians! We need to send guns to the rebels to stop the crazy dictator!" *a few months pass* "Hey guys, that crazy dictator is alright, send him guns to defeat those other rebels!"
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Jul 13, 2014 00:17
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Yeah, what would backing Assad implies? Stop sending stuff to FSA and co?
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Jul 13, 2014 00:18
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Lifting sanctions I'd imagine. Let someone else supply him.
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Jul 13, 2014 00:22
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DrProsek posted:How would that plan even work, "Hey guys, Assad is using chemical weapons on his own civilians! We need to send guns to the rebels to stop the crazy dictator!" *a few months pass* "Hey guys, that crazy dictator is alright, send him guns to defeat those other rebels!" Minus the chemical weapon and arming the rebels in the first place this is pretty much the USAs approach to Egypt, so yeah.
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Jul 13, 2014 00:32
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DrProsek posted:How would that plan even work, "Hey guys, Assad is using chemical weapons on his own civilians! We need to send guns to the rebels to stop the crazy dictator!" *a few months pass* "Hey guys, that crazy dictator is alright, send him guns to defeat those other rebels!" Just more stupid realpolitik nonsense that people have been armchair diplomating for years. It'll never happen for a variety of reasons, namely that Assad winning does nothing to stop terrorism. He wouldn't fight ISIS until every last supporter of the moderates were crushed, so the US would be funding that operation first and foremost. That'd put the US right back into the "gently caress you and die" spotlight with a vengeance. Not to mention that Assad loves outwitting people and stabbing them in the back. If the US got into bed with him, they'd end up in some diabolical trap that dumped them into a shark tank while Assad laughed like a maniac in front of them. All of this has been said openly by US officials, it'd take a blatant as gently caress 180 that would be political hell to double back on it. I don't think they have any intent to do that though because the enemy of my enemy is my friend is some simplified bullshit when you're talking about loving Assad. Volkerball fucked around with this message at 00:39 on Jul 13, 2014 |
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Jul 13, 2014 00:36
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farraday posted:But you're right, you have no specifically said the words that you're advocating homogeneity That's an awful lot of words for "I was wrong." Volkerball posted:Just more stupid realpolitik nonsense that people have been armchair diplomating for years. It'll never happen for a variety of reasons, namely that Assad winning does nothing to stop terrorism. He wouldn't fight ISIS until every last supporter of the moderates were crushed, so the US would be funding that operation first and foremost. That'd put the US right back into the "gently caress you and die" spotlight with a vengeance. Not to mention that Assad loves outwitting people and stabbing them in the back. If the US got into bed with him, they'd end up in some diabolical trap that dumped them into a shark tank while Assad laughed like a maniac in front of them. All of this has been said openly by US officials, it'd take a blatant as gently caress 180 that would be political hell to double back on it. I don't think they have any intent to do that though because the enemy of my enemy is my friend is some simplified bullshit when you're talking about loving Assad. Yeah, I can get why people would be worried about supporting the various rebel factions, but Assad? Really? That's some industrial-strength evil. illrepute fucked around with this message at 00:54 on Jul 13, 2014 |
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Jul 13, 2014 00:49
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Volkerball posted:Just more stupid realpolitik nonsense that people have been armchair diplomating for years. It'll never happen for a variety of reasons, namely that Assad winning does nothing to stop terrorism. He wouldn't fight ISIS until every last supporter of the moderates were crushed, so the US would be funding that operation first and foremost. That'd put the US right back into the "gently caress you and die" spotlight with a vengeance. Not to mention that Assad loves outwitting people and stabbing them in the back. If the US got into bed with him, they'd end up in some diabolical trap that dumped them into a shark tank while Assad laughed like a maniac in front of them. All of this has been said openly by US officials, it'd take a blatant as gently caress 180 that would be political hell to double back on it. I don't think they have any intent to do that though because the enemy of my enemy is my friend is some simplified bullshit when you're talking about loving Assad. Considering the moderate position was to annihilate the Alawites, I think Assad's got his niche.
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Jul 13, 2014 00:54
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namesake posted:Minus the chemical weapon and arming the rebels in the first place this is pretty much the USAs approach to Egypt, so yeah.
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Jul 13, 2014 00:57
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namesake posted:Minus the chemical weapon and arming the rebels in the first place this is pretty much the USAs approach to Egypt, so yeah. The sum total of foreign intervention has been to throw weapons into the country, get Assad to give up his declared (important emphasis here) chemical stockpile, attempt a disastrous round of talks at Geneva (where Assad's reps' official term for the entire opposition was "terrorism" and never budged from it once), and wring their hands while the world's worst humanitarian crisis happened right on the borders of a major NATO member. I'm not for military intervention, but the West's stance toward Syria was just appallingly indifferent.
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Jul 13, 2014 01:00
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Mightypeon posted:The Bagdad faction has 40% of Iraqs population. Its just that the corrupt elite on top really love their current position. They also have backing from a very very interested regional power (Iran) and a Great power (Russia). They also do not have the opposition of any Great Powers, and they could conceivably ally with the Kurds. This is from a few pages back but I wanted to point out that Malaki has been doing exactly this. He is positioning himself as the essential Iraqi ruler; without him everything is going to poo poo, he's the only one that can keep the country together, defeat IS, ride off into the sunset etc. Its a good point you make about being wary of a power vacuum caused by Malaki's ouster. I very much doubt Iran really prefers Malaki to some other ruler, though Malaki has worked extensively with Iran during his time in power. I still see it as only a matter of time before Malaki is gone, unless IS can somehow be swiftly defeated.
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Jul 13, 2014 01:04
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illrepute posted:That's an awful lot of words for "I was wrong." Keep loving that chicken, tell me more about the beauty of self determinism in regards to South Sudan.
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Jul 13, 2014 01:10
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farraday posted:Keep loving that chicken, tell me more about the beauty of self determinism in regards to South Sudan. Take this retarded derail elsewhere. I haven't said anything about South Sudan and in fact, you might be surprised to learn, do not support its creation; from what I've heard, the SPLA wasn't even really interested in separation rather than reforming the government initially. The situation could have been fixed, but was not; the separation that happened has been a disaster. Can you take this to the Africa thread?
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Jul 13, 2014 01:13
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illrepute posted:Take your retarded derail elsewhere. I haven't said anything about South Sudan and in fact, you might be surprised to learn, do not support its creation; from what I've heard, the SPLA wasn't even really interested in separation rather than reforming the government initially. The situation could have been fixed, but was not; the separation that happened has been a disaster. Can you take this to the Africa thread? Your'e right self determination can't fail it can only be failed. gently caress off your proposed policy doesn't work and you know it, but as long as it's a theoretical construct you can simply impose it on a situation and say it will be better. You're the libertarianism of foreign policy.
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Jul 13, 2014 01:18
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farraday posted:Your'e right self determination can't fail it can only be failed. gently caress off your proposed policy doesn't work and you know it, but as long as it's a theoretical construct you can simply impose it on a situation and say it will be better. You're the libertarianism of foreign policy. You think self-determination is a failed concept? Are you okay? Are you on cocaine? illrepute fucked around with this message at 01:23 on Jul 13, 2014 |
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Jul 13, 2014 01:21
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illrepute posted:You think self-determination is a fringe ideological concept? Are you on cocaine? Self determination of borders as a check for conflict? Yeah that's pretty loving out there you clown.
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Jul 13, 2014 01:22
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farraday posted:Self determination of borders as a check for conflict? Yeah that's pretty loving out there you clown. It actually isn't, though? Can we take this back into being about the Middle East now?
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Jul 13, 2014 01:28
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This really is a derail but never fear I'm sure much of D&D would love to participate in a energetic and no doubt extremely well educated and reality-based discussion on self-determination in its own not-the-middle-east thread.
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Jul 13, 2014 01:30
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illrepute posted:It actually isn't, though? Feel free to cite examples then. Obviously you're dismissing South Sudan as some sort of fringe case. Could you like to cite Yugoslavia? Ukraine? India? Texas? I'm sure you'll think of one sooner or later and use it as essential proof that any other counter examples are false. Timor? Tamils? No don't get up I can keep going. Ireland?
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Jul 13, 2014 01:31
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farraday posted:Feel free to cite examples then. Obviously you're dismissing South Sudan as some sort of fringe case. Could you like to cite Yugoslavia? Ukraine? India? Texas? I'm sure you'll think of one sooner or later and use it as essential proof that any other counter examples are false. Timor? Tamils? No don't get up I can keep going. Ireland? Christ dude none of this has anything to do with the Middle East. At first I thought you were just angry, because you've continued to fight with shadows in every single post you've made. You accused me of demanding ethnic homogeneity and it took you a whole page to concede that I hadn't said that. You demanded I justify South Sudan when I hadn't even said anything about it. Now you're demanding I apologize for a shitload of conflicts that have absolutely zero relationship with what the thread is discussing. You're just a psycho looking for some totem to take it out on.
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Jul 13, 2014 01:33
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So, how is Afghanistan going with Abdullah Abdullah (apparently) on the verge of getting screwjobbed two elections in a row? I hear a bunch of warlords have pledged fealty to him and hinted at a civil war if he doesn't get the win...
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Jul 13, 2014 01:34
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This might be unrelated but is Jerusalem Post a biased piece of poo poo like most Israeli media or is it decent?
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Jul 13, 2014 01:34
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illrepute posted:The borders drawn by colonial powers are fake and should be destroyed. The problem is that ISIS is the one doing it. All borders are fake, in the sense that they are mere human constructions.
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Jul 13, 2014 01:35
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illrepute posted:Christ dude none of this has anything to do with the Middle East. At first I thought you were just angry, because you've continued to fight with shadows in every single post you've made. You accused me of demanding ethnic homogeneity and it took you a whole page to concede that I hadn't said that. You demanded I justify South Sudan when I hadn't even said anything about it. Now you're demanding I apologize for a shitload of conflicts that have absolutely zero relationship with what we're discussing. You're just a psycho looking for some totem to take it out on. So you have no citations at all. Got it. Well derail over illrepute has said three times I'm an angry psycho so that means he's right.
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Jul 13, 2014 01:35
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Panzeh posted:Considering the moderate position was to annihilate the Jews, I think Israel has its niche. This is what you sound like.
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Jul 13, 2014 01:36
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Soooo hey, what's... you know.... actually going on over in Iraq and Syria right now? I'm a lot more interested in hearing about that.
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Jul 13, 2014 01:38
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farraday posted:So you have no citations at all. Got it. Well derail over illrepute has said three times I'm an angry psycho so that means he's right. What you've provided are a bunch of extremely unrelated examples, angrily demanded I vaguely 'defend' them, and then, and then attacked me for refusing to play your stupid game. Sergg posted:Soooo hey, what's... you know.... actually going on over in Iraq and Syria right now? I'm a lot more interested in hearing about that. Yes, please, can we talk about this?
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Jul 13, 2014 01:40
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illrepute posted:What you've provided are a bunch of extremely unrelated examples, angrily demanded I vaguely 'defend' them, and then, and then attacked me for refusing to play your stupid game. Hey hey you called me angry three times so you won, don't gloat. I mean you could always cite a positive example but I don't want to strain you.
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Jul 13, 2014 01:41
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 http://i.imgur.com/A308ZZc.jpg Here's a giant pile of bodies of Iraqi Shiite militias on the road outside Tikrit. Apparently they aren't as effective as the Iraqi government was hoping for.
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Jul 13, 2014 01:43
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Do ISIS militants have any way of telling who is/isn't Shia? If you're an Iraqi Shia, isn't it easy to pretend you're Sunni and thus escape death?
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Jul 13, 2014 01:46
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 Upon further inspection of other twitter posts, this is actually a huge pile of living Shia who have been rounded up by ISIS near Tikrit. There are various claims that they are militia or that they are just regular Shia. My bet is just regular Shia. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to know what's going to happen to them.
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Jul 13, 2014 01:48
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farraday posted:Hey hey you called me angry three times so you won, don't gloat. Here's the thing. Over the course of this derail you have accused me, repeatedly, of holding positions that I do not. When I tell you that I do not hold those positions, you have not apologized. It took you a full page to admit that I hadn't said the things you were accusing me of saying. Then, you proceeded to do the same thing vis a vis South Sudan and are now demanding I defend every single instance where redrawing the borders (many of these instances, of course, weren't done through self-determination). Christ, do you really want me to explain to you why Ireland leaving the UK was better than it staying? Take your loving pills.
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Jul 13, 2014 01:48
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Not quite sure what the logic of trying to surrender to IS is, given their history of war crimes...
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Jul 13, 2014 01:49
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Sergg posted:
Not for long if ISIS's videos are anything to go by
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Jul 13, 2014 01:51
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Sergg posted:Soooo hey, what's... you know.... actually going on over in Iraq and Syria right now? I'm a lot more interested in hearing about that. According to AP, Kurds took two more oil refineries outside of Kirkuk. That's a predictable but somewhat significant development I feel.
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Jul 13, 2014 01:52
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Rukeli posted:Do ISIS militants have any way of telling who is/isn't Shia? If you're an Iraqi Shia, isn't it easy to pretend you're Sunni and thus escape death? Somebody on twitter mentioned asking people about traditionally Sunni hadith and if they couldn't answer, welp
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Jul 13, 2014 01:53
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Sergg posted:
Jesus. These guys are scary effective. Are there any news media reporting this to get some kind of narrative as to what happened?
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Jul 13, 2014 01:55
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http://www.news.com.au/world/middle-east/iraq-beats-back-haditha-assault-sends-4000-volunteers-to-ramadi/story-fnh81ifq-1226987064889 Iraqi Army has repelled an assault on Haditha, is airlifting 4,000 Shiite militia to Ramadi, deep inside ISIS territory.
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Jul 13, 2014 01:55
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 This picture was captioned with "If you're in Mosul and some Baathists are troubling you, call the ISIS police force"
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Jul 13, 2014 01:59
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Full Battle Rattle posted:Jesus. These guys are scary effective. Are there any news media reporting this to get some kind of narrative as to what happened? It's hard to get good info out of Iraq now. The Iraqi government media is transparent propaganda at this point and they're not going to cover their losses with any honesty. And you can't trust the rebels to be wholly accurate either, and western journalists aren't going to risk their necks and go into places like Mosul and Ramadi. That said, there are a lot of bodies starting to pile up, and it is at least evident that the more poorly trained volunteers aren't doing well. But the more established Shi'ite militias are more capable of holding their own.
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Jul 13, 2014 02:10
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Full Battle Rattle posted:Jesus. These guys are scary effective. Are there any news media reporting this to get some kind of narrative as to what happened? I think they are just very good at using the new internet media. I am not buying half of the things they claim on the 'net.
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Jul 13, 2014 02:13
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