I/P: post-semitism in the desert of the deal

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Zeroisanumber: Oct 23, 2010; Nap Ghost

Joint List 13%. Not bad.

# ? Mar 17, 2015 21:10

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# ? May 31, 2024 20:18

ReidRansom: Oct 25, 2004

evilweasel posted:

Netenyahu has a much easier path to a coalition than the Zionist Camp, so if he actually tied with them he's probably going to remain PM.

Ah OK thanks.

# ? Mar 17, 2015 21:10

Absurd Alhazred: Mar 27, 2010; by Athanatos

Zeroisanumber posted:

Joint List 13%. Not bad.

Those aren't percentages, those are seats after splitting and a somewhat complicated remainder distribution algorithm. Out of 120 in the Knesset.

# ? Mar 17, 2015 21:11

emanresu tnuocca: Sep 2, 2011; by Athanatos

Likud + Bennett + Liberman + Kahlon is a given unless Kahlon decides to mix things up a bit, but he's a former Likud man after all so not likely. That's 51 seats out of the required 61 right there. One of Shas\Yesh-Atid would likely join, Bibi will probably court Lapid but if that fails Shas + UTJ are also a possibility, either way that's over 61.

# ? Mar 17, 2015 21:12

Zeroisanumber: Oct 23, 2010; Nap Ghost

Absurd Alhazred posted:

Those aren't percentages, those are seats after splitting and a somewhat complicated remainder distribution algorithm. Out of 120 in the Knesset.

Ah, thanks. Still not bad.

# ? Mar 17, 2015 21:13

Volkerball: Oct 15, 2009; by FactsAreUseless

Is anything changing at all if these exit polls hold up, or did they just dissolve the government and hold early elections for nothing?

# ? Mar 17, 2015 21:16

emanresu tnuocca: Sep 2, 2011; by Athanatos

Basically any way you spin it unless Herzog can get UTJ, Shas, Lapid and Kahlon on his side he's well below 61.

And Lapid is basically Shas\UTJ kryptonite, so that's really not gonna happen and if it would it would be a very very centrist and unstable government that won't be able to accomplish anything meaningful.

# ? Mar 17, 2015 21:17

Bear Retrieval Unit: Nov 5, 2009; Mudslide Experiment

Volkerball posted:

Is anything changing at all if these exit polls hold up, or did they just dissolve the government and hold early elections for nothing?

We traded Lapid for Kahlon and the Hardis :shrug:

# ? Mar 17, 2015 21:17

William Bear: Oct 26, 2012; "That's what they all say!"

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/netanyahus-future-on-the-line-in-israel-parliament-election/ar-AA9S6ab

Raw video. So awkward.

:hfive:

"Hey leader of our country. Surprised to see you here."

:jewish:

"Haha, [constituent}."

Also, any mention yet of the role inequality is playing in this election? Paul Krugman wrote a column for the NYT recently.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/16/opinion/paul-krugman-israels-gilded-age.html?ref=topics

quote:

Why did Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel feel the need to wag the dog in Washington? For that was, of course, what he was doing in his anti-Iran speech to Congress. If you�re seriously trying to affect American foreign policy, you don�t insult the president and so obviously align yourself with his political opposition. No, the real purpose of that speech was to distract the Israeli electorate with saber-rattling bombast, to shift its attention away from the economic discontent that, polls suggest, may well boot Mr. Netanyahu from office in Tuesday�s election.

But wait: Why are Israelis discontented? After all, Israel�s economy has performed well by the usual measures. It weathered the financial crisis with minimal damage. Over the longer term, it has grown more rapidly than most other advanced economies, and has developed into a high-technology powerhouse. What is there to complain about?

The answer, which I don�t think is widely appreciated here, is that while Israel�s economy has grown, this growth has been accompanied by a disturbing transformation in the country�s income distribution and society. Once upon a time, Israel was a country of egalitarian ideals � the kibbutz population was always a small minority, but it had a large impact on the nation�s self-perception. And it was a fairly equal society in reality, too, right up to the early 1990s.

Since then, however, Israel has experienced a dramatic widening of income disparities. Key measures of inequality have soared; Israel is now right up there with America as one of the most unequal societies in the advanced world. And Israel�s experience shows that this matters, that extreme inequality has a corrosive effect on social and political life.

Consider what has happened at either end of the spectrum � the growth in poverty, on one side, and extreme wealth, on the other.

According to Luxembourg Income Study data, the share of Israel�s population living on less than half the country�s median income � a widely accepted definition of relative poverty � more than doubled, to 20.5 percent from 10.2 percent, between 1992 and 2010. The share of children in poverty almost quadrupled, to 27.4 percent from 7.8 percent. Both numbers are the worst in the advanced world, by a large margin.

And when it comes to children, in particular, relative poverty is the right concept. Families that live on much lower incomes than those of their fellow citizens will, in important ways, be alienated from the society around them, unable to participate fully in the life of the nation. Children growing up in such families will surely be placed at a permanent disadvantage.

At the other end, while the available data � puzzlingly � don�t show an especially large share of income going to the top 1 percent, there is an extreme concentration of wealth and power among a tiny group of people at the top. And I mean tiny. According to the Bank of Israel, roughly 20 families control companies that account for half the total value of Israel�s stock market. The nature of that control is convoluted and obscure, working through �pyramids� in which a family controls a firm that in turn controls other firms and so on. Although the Bank of Israel is circumspect in its language, it is clearly worried about the potential this concentration of control creates for self-dealing.

Still, why is Israeli inequality a political issue? Because it didn�t have to be this extreme.

You might think that Israeli inequality is a natural outcome of a high-tech economy that generates strong demand for skilled labor � or, perhaps, reflects the importance of minority populations with low incomes, namely Arabs and ultrareligious Jews. It turns out, however, that those high poverty rates largely reflect policy choices: Israel does less to lift people out of poverty than any other advanced country � yes, even less than the United States.

Meanwhile, Israel�s oligarchs owe their position not to innovation and entrepreneurship but to their families� success in gaining control of businesses that the government privatized in the 1980s � and they arguably retain that position partly by having undue influence over government policy, combined with control of major banks.

In short, the political economy of the promised land is now characterized by harshness at the bottom and at least soft corruption at the top. And many Israelis see Mr. Netanyahu as part of the problem. He�s an advocate of free-market policies; he has a Chris Christie-like penchant for living large at taxpayers� expense, while clumsily pretending otherwise.

So Mr. Netanyahu tried to change the subject from internal inequality to external threats, a tactic those who remember the Bush years should find completely familiar. We�ll find out on Tuesday whether he succeeded.

William Bear fucked around with this message at 21:23 on Mar 17, 2015

# ? Mar 17, 2015 21:17

emanresu tnuocca: Sep 2, 2011; by Athanatos

Volkerball posted:

Is anything changing at all if these exit polls hold up, or did they just dissolve the government and hold early elections for nothing?

Yes, Netanyahu holds significantly more electoral power directly via Likud seats, he basically dissolved Liberman and Bennet and successfully drew their voters. Additionally he weakened Lapid many of whose voters switched to Kulanu, a far more right-leaning party, so Netanyahu's coalition is a lot more stable than it was, not even significantly more right wing eithery. He pretty much just achieved all of his stated goals, the fucker.

# ? Mar 17, 2015 21:19

ReidRansom: Oct 25, 2004

emanresu tnuocca posted:

He pretty much just achieved all of his stated goals, the fucker.

He may be a piece of poo poo, but he's definitely good at politicking. Have to at least give him that.

# ? Mar 17, 2015 21:23

dorkasaurus_rex: Jun 10, 2005; gawrsh do you think any women will be there

Worst case scenario... Bibi's mad dash for the far right in the closing moments worked out and now he has to govern even farther to the right than before, without even paying a Palestinian state lip service.

# ? Mar 17, 2015 21:27

Doflamingo: Sep 20, 2006

ReidRansom posted:

He may be a piece of poo poo, but he's definitely good at politicking. Have to at least give him that.

I'd so rather give him something cold and sharp instead. ): Jokes aside, seriously this guy cannot be stopped.

# ? Mar 17, 2015 21:31

emanresu tnuocca: Sep 2, 2011; by Athanatos

The best case scenario is that Netanyahu has done irrepairable diplomatic damage the past two days and that there will be significant sanctions taken by the EU and possibly by Obama, two-state solution has been the credo of the american administration for over twenty years, even AIPAC might not be able to block the tide now if Obama and Europe openly brand Netanyahu's Israel as a 'peace refuser'.

We'll see, there's still some measure of hope that the real results might lean more positively.

# ? Mar 17, 2015 21:32

SpiderHyphenMan: Apr 1, 2010; by Fluffdaddy

Today is one of those days where it sucks more than usual to be Barack Obama.

# ? Mar 17, 2015 21:33

Al-Saqr: Nov 11, 2007; One Day I Will Return To Your Side.

So now we have a fully elected leader who openly came out with what people already suspected that he was never going to allow human rights and freedom for the Palestinians as an election platform get his endorsement, arguing against Zionism has never gotten easier and definitely this will come as a boost to the BDS movement.

if only the coming crimes wasn't about to happen.

# ? Mar 17, 2015 21:34

Fuck You And Diebold: Sep 15, 2004; by Athanatos

dorkasaurus_rex posted:

Worst case scenario... Bibi's mad dash for the far right in the closing moments worked out and now he has to govern even farther to the right than before, without even paying a Palestinian state lip service.

Well the accelerationists would be happy!

# ? Mar 17, 2015 21:35

emanresu tnuocca: Sep 2, 2011; by Athanatos

gently caress You And Diebold posted:

Well the accelerationists would be happy!

Yes, and the christian apocalyptic types, a natural alliance of bloodthirsty idiots and warmongers, piss on all of them, may they get their wish and we all die in agony.

# ? Mar 17, 2015 21:37

Bear Retrieval Unit: Nov 5, 2009; Mudslide Experiment

http://z.ynet.co.il/short/content/2015/elections_chairs/default.aspx
Make your own coalition. From top to button:
Likud
Zionist Camp
Joint List
Yesh Atid
Kulanu
Jewish Home
Shas
UTJ
Meretz
Isral Beytenu

# ? Mar 17, 2015 21:42

dorkasaurus_rex: Jun 10, 2005; gawrsh do you think any women will be there

How can Netanyahu even go on governing after saying he will 100% guarantee no Palestinian state under his tenure? That's, um, a lot to answer for, internationally.

# ? Mar 17, 2015 21:43

Fuck You And Diebold: Sep 15, 2004; by Athanatos

dorkasaurus_rex posted:

How can Netanyahu even go on governing after saying he will 100% guarantee no Palestinian state under his tenure? That's, um, a lot to answer for, internationally.

The US probably doesn't care that much and how much pressure can anyone else put on them? Besides, this was already known. Did people think Netanyahu was really gonna go for a two state solution under his tenure before this?

# ? Mar 17, 2015 21:44

Bear Retrieval Unit: Nov 5, 2009; Mudslide Experiment

Bear Retrieval Unit posted:

http://z.ynet.co.il/short/content/2015/elections_chairs/default.aspx
Make your own coalition. From top to button:
Likud
Zionist Camp
Joint List
Yesh Atid
Kulanu
Jewish Home
Shas
UTJ
Meretz
Isral Beytenu

Holy poo poo it won't let you put Likud and the joint list together.

# ? Mar 17, 2015 21:45

evilweasel: Aug 24, 2002

gently caress You And Diebold posted:

The US probably doesn't care that much and how much pressure can anyone else put on them? Besides, this was already known. Did people think Netanyahu was really gonna go for a two state solution under his tenure before this?

There's a big difference in "sure, we'd go for it on the right terms, which we never seem to be able to hammer out" and "nope" in deniability. It's just not deniable anymore and that is a big problem for Israel in the future.

# ? Mar 17, 2015 21:45

My Imaginary GF: Jul 17, 2005; by R. Guyovich

dorkasaurus_rex posted:

How can Netanyahu even go on governing after saying he will 100% guarantee no Palestinian state under his tenure? That's, um, a lot to answer for, internationally.

Remaining hope for a two-state solution died with Hamas' continued attacks from Gaza last summer. Bibi is merely admitting the reality of the status quo, that Hamas has succeeded at killing the belief in a two-state solution.

Clearly, the answer is the three-state solution which Hamas so cravenly desires.

# ? Mar 17, 2015 21:47

illrepute: Dec 30, 2009; by XyloJW

evilweasel posted:

There's a big difference in "sure, we'd go for it on the right terms, which we never seem to be able to hammer out" and "nope" in deniability. It's just not deniable anymore and that is a big problem for Israel in the future.

The thing is, I just can't see any foreseeable American administration actually turning on the Israelis. What would it take for that to happen?

# ? Mar 17, 2015 21:51

Cat Mattress: Jul 14, 2012; by Cyrano4747

dorkasaurus_rex posted:

That's, um, a lot to answer for, internationally.

Why would he care?

Besides, it'll still be spinned as being the Palestinians' fault, and Western media will still gobble it up and repeat it.

# ? Mar 17, 2015 21:51

SpiderHyphenMan: Apr 1, 2010; by Fluffdaddy

illrepute posted:

The thing is, I just can't see any foreseeable American administration actually turning on the Israelis. What would it take for that to happen?

A belief in collective punishment.

# ? Mar 17, 2015 21:51

Job Truniht: Nov 7, 2012; MY POSTS ARE REAL RETARDED, SIR

Ah yes, the rocket attacks. Which attacks? The one last summer, one of many over the last 20 years in the ongoing shitfest between Israel, Lebanon, Syria, and Palestine. That was the definite point where we decided there weren't to be any more negotiations. MIGF you are such a disenginuous piece of poo poo.

# ? Mar 17, 2015 21:52

Volkerball: Oct 15, 2009; by FactsAreUseless

Bear Retrieval Unit posted:

Holy poo poo it won't let you put Likud and the joint list together.

hahaha. what's the translation of the pop up when you try to do it?

# ? Mar 17, 2015 21:52

bencreateddisco: Dec 7, 2011; I BLEW $74K IN KICKSTARTER MONEY AND ALL I GOT WAS THIS UGLY AVATAR

Job Truniht posted:

Ah yes, the rocket attacks. Which attacks? The one last summer, one of many over the last 20 years in the ongoing shitfest between Israel, Lebanon, Syria, and Palestine. That was the definite point where we decided there weren't to be any more negotiations. MIGF you are such a disenginuous piece of poo poo.

hmm yes, the rocket attacks that had nothing to do with Israel imprisoning thousands of Palestinians under false pretenses. hmm

# ? Mar 17, 2015 21:54

ReidRansom: Oct 25, 2004

illrepute posted:

The thing is, I just can't see any foreseeable American administration actually turning on the Israelis. What would it take for that to happen?

Congress wouldn't allow it. They'd find a way. The Republicans are 100% with Israel, and the Democrats are like 85% with them, even if Obama himself isn't.

# ? Mar 17, 2015 21:55

Bear Retrieval Unit: Nov 5, 2009; Mudslide Experiment

Volkerball posted:

hahaha. what's the translation of the pop up when you try to do it?

"You've picked an illogical combination because the Liud won't sit wit the Joint List". It also does it with The Jewish Home and Israel Beitenu and even does it for Meretz and the Jewish Home.

# ? Mar 17, 2015 21:55

greatn: Nov 15, 2006; by Lowtax

ReidRansom posted:

Congress wouldn't allow it. They'd find a way. The Republicans are 100% with Israel, and the Democrats are like 85% with them, even if Obama himself isn't.

Obama controls Susan Rice and the UN vote right?

# ? Mar 17, 2015 21:56

By popular demand: Jul 17, 2007; IT *BZZT* WASP ME--
IT WASP ME ALL *BZZT* ALONG!

Welp the centre parties, Yesh atid and Kulanu are going to decide this.
Unfortunately they lean to the right :negative:

Sorry world, we tried.

# ? Mar 17, 2015 21:57

ReidRansom: Oct 25, 2004

greatn posted:

Obama controls Susan Rice and the UN vote right?

I don't see us voting against Israel in the UN. If it's anything other than business as usual in public, I will be legitimately shocked. Anything uncivil or hostile won't reach the public.

# ? Mar 17, 2015 21:59

dorkasaurus_rex: Jun 10, 2005; gawrsh do you think any women will be there

My Imaginary GF posted:

Remaining hope for a two-state solution died with Hamas' continued attacks from Gaza last summer. Bibi is merely admitting the reality of the status quo, that Hamas has succeeded at killing the belief in a two-state solution.

Clearly, the answer is the three-state solution which Hamas so cravenly desires.

So... Let's build a ton of settlements until the end of time, then?

Also, this just happened:

quote:

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declares victory in tight election - @AP http://www.breakingnews.com/t/Zbl

Aren't the polls not even closed yet?

# ? Mar 17, 2015 21:59

By popular demand: Jul 17, 2007; IT *BZZT* WASP ME--
IT WASP ME ALL *BZZT* ALONG!

The polls had closed an hour ago.

# ? Mar 17, 2015 22:01

Bear Retrieval Unit: Nov 5, 2009; Mudslide Experiment

dorkasaurus_rex posted:

So... Let's build a ton of settlements until the end of time, then?

Also, this just happened:

Aren't the polls not even closed yet?

Nah they closed about an hour ago. And tbh the fucker did pretty much win.

# ? Mar 17, 2015 22:02

By popular demand: Jul 17, 2007; IT *BZZT* WASP ME--
IT WASP ME ALL *BZZT* ALONG!

I despise the thought of watching his triumphant grin. :agesilaus:

# ? Mar 17, 2015 22:05

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# ? May 31, 2024 20:18

SpiderHyphenMan: Apr 1, 2010; by Fluffdaddy

Maybe Hillary will take him down a notch in 2017.

# ? Mar 17, 2015 22:12

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