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the only people who thought mitt romney was winning in the general election were people in the mitt romney campaign
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Sep 12, 2015 16:34
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TEAYCHES posted:lmao five thirty eight lmao Bernie has no endorsements and will never get the nom.
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Sep 12, 2015 16:36
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Four years ago fivethirtyeight wasn't part of loving ESPN.
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Sep 12, 2015 16:38
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Montasque posted:lmao Bernie has no endorsements and will never get the nom. same but jeremy corbyn
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Sep 12, 2015 16:40
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Kalman posted:You should really read that again. Table 1 in both cases. oh i misread your post, i thought you meant Hillary ended up at +7 over Bernie not that 7% went to her.
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Sep 12, 2015 16:44
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Montasque posted:lmao Bernie has no endorsements and will never get the nom. oh boy hillary has 300 votes out of the 2k+ needed to win the nomination, she's got it all sewn up
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Sep 12, 2015 16:47
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TEAYCHES posted:same but jeremy corbyn Corbyn got 36 party nominations (unintentional though a third of them may have been), which puts him up 36 over Sanders.
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Sep 12, 2015 16:49
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Franco Potente posted:Corbyn got 36 party nominations (unintentional though a third of them may have been), which puts him up 36 over Sanders. nominations arent endorsements and corbyn was treated with hostile contempt by the labour party establishment throughout the campaign. the insane attacks on corbyn were far above anything sanders has seen from the democrats. hes so far off labours status quo that there are fears of him splitting the party because the neoliberals are too butthurt
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Sep 12, 2015 16:53
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538 is accurate as gently caress you doofuses
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Sep 12, 2015 17:05
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virtualboyCOLOR posted:538 is accurate as gently caress you doofuses as a case study in autism yeah
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Sep 12, 2015 17:07
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Oh man 538 had been able to accurately predict every election within an acceptable margin of error, including off year elections, but they're WRONG about MY candidate!
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Sep 12, 2015 17:07
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TEAYCHES posted:lmao five thirty eight Remember when goons were jizzing themselves over Chuck Todd's work in 2007 when he was just the numbers guy MSNBC brought on? I was one of them. He gave solid, straightforward, factual information. He was great. Everyone was like, "Wow, this guy should be on regularly, promote him to a regular position." MSNBC did exactly that, he was given a wider breadth of exposure and analysis to do, and it turned out he was kind of an idiot whenever he did anything but pure numbers. Nate Silver, although exponentially more skilled on the numbers side, seems kind of the same.
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Sep 12, 2015 17:09
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TEAYCHES posted:the only people who thought mitt romney was winning in the general election were people in the mitt romney campaign This is possibly the least correct thing you have ever posted.
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Sep 12, 2015 17:10
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So anyway, like I started last week, here's this week's 2012/2016 RCP average comparison. This one is dedicated to Rick Perry.  This is a special occasion for Perry because four years ago at this time marks his absolute high point in the Presidential race...he started declining a few days later and would collapse in the RCP average by the end of September. This time, of course, Perry never got any traction at all and is out of the race. On the plus side, this means he can devote his full attention to fighting his indictments! Good luck in court, Governor Perry! Also, once again, we should note that Jeb Bush has dipped below where Dr. Ron Paul was four years ago at this point. Carson's surge seems to be coming out of everyone's hide except Trump's.
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Sep 12, 2015 17:11
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Actually they have issues with foreign elections and mayoral elections i think? i'd be inclined to agree with you but every pollster has their off day and it's always possible for them to be wrong b/c of a black swan event or w/e just wait until iowa, then we can start crowing about how donald sanders is hosed
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Sep 12, 2015 17:11
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A Neurotic Jew posted:This is possibly the least correct thing you have ever posted. nah i pretty distinctly remember obama winning and it being a surprise to no one but the mitt romney campaign and that right wing huckster polling guy
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Sep 12, 2015 17:12
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TEAYCHES posted:nah i pretty distinctly remember obama winning and it being a surprise to no one but the mitt romney campaign and that right wing huckster polling guy And Karl Rove. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9TwuR0jCavk I haven't watched this in awhile and I'm smiling like a fool. So good. Megyn Kelly is drunk as hell, which makes it better. Pohl fucked around with this message at 17:21 on Sep 12, 2015 |
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Sep 12, 2015 17:16
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TEAYCHES posted:nah i pretty distinctly remember obama winning and it being a surprise to no one but the mitt romney campaign and that right wing huckster polling guy there were a ton of republicans who were blindsided by it, don't you remember the white people crying blog
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Sep 12, 2015 17:18
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mandatory lesbian posted:there were a ton of republicans who were blindsided by it, don't you remember the white people crying blog all of them were watching fox news or listening to that right wing huckster polling guy, republican reality distortion field i think was the phrase
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Sep 12, 2015 17:21
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TEAYCHES posted:nah i pretty distinctly remember obama winning and it being a surprise to no one but the mitt romney campaign and that right wing huckster polling guy Between the first and second debate there was a general feeling that Romney might actually win it. To this day many Republicans blame the second debate, and Candy Crowley in particular, for Romney's eventual loss.
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Sep 12, 2015 17:24
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Franco Potente posted:Corbyn got 36 party nominations (unintentional though a third of them may have been), which puts him up 36 over Sanders. Corbyn was also endorsed by Donald Trump.
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Sep 12, 2015 17:25
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Montasque posted:Between the first and second debate there was a general feeling that Romney might actually win it. yeah but the whole time his polling was bad because he was an unrelatable robot person https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yTCRwi71_ns
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Sep 12, 2015 17:25
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TEAYCHES posted:all of them were watching fox news or listening to that right wing huckster polling guy, republican reality distortion field i think was the phrase yes i know, the way you worded your post made it seem you didnt count those people as being surprised
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Sep 12, 2015 17:27
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TEAYCHES posted:nominations arent endorsements and corbyn was treated with hostile contempt by the labour party establishment throughout the campaign. the insane attacks on corbyn were far above anything sanders has seen from the democrats. hes so far off labours status quo that there are fears of him splitting the party because the neoliberals are too butthurt if sanders starts looking remotely as threatening as corbyn the knives will come out
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Sep 12, 2015 17:33
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Peel posted:if sanders starts looking remotely as threatening as corbyn the knives will come out and like with corbyn it will backfire as badly as tony blair writing pleading panicky op-eds in the guardian whinging about how he doesnt get it and everyones lost their mind except him
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Sep 12, 2015 17:35
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Sinnlos posted:please keep in mind that this does not invalidate my complaint that Bernie tends to frame things in regards to class-based issues while Hillary has an actual track record of working with minorities. Yeah, her being one if the driving forces behind "tough on crime" legislation that has had as harmful of an effect on black America as any Republican policy is a fantastic record. I guess it's okay because she gives lip service to how we need reform now because it's totally what she believes and not because it's become politically expedient.
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Sep 12, 2015 17:40
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Pohl posted:And Karl Rove. Thank you for this. Watching Karl Rove meltdown is beautiful.
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Sep 12, 2015 17:43
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Montasque posted:Thank you for this. Watching Karl Rove meltdown is beautiful. I think the best part was Megyn Kelly deciding she'd had enough of that fat gently caress's bullshit and walking the production crew all back to the math room so they could have some analyst in there say how wrong Rove was, on live television.
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Sep 12, 2015 17:56
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Carly strikes backquote:Washington (CNN)Carly Fiorina has a message for Donald Trump: Yes, "look at this face." http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/12/politics/carly-fiorina-donald-trump-look-at-face/index.html Also, Trump is speaking in the next couple of minutes It should be up on http://www.cnn.com
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Sep 12, 2015 18:08
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Sep 12, 2015 18:08
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Sep 12, 2015 18:09
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XK posted:Nate Silver, although exponentially more skilled on the numbers side, seems kind of the same. If true, this is more of a huge burn on Chuck Todd than a compliment to Nate Silver's numbers skills.
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Sep 12, 2015 18:13
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NotJesus posted:It's funny that when people say that Trump might win the nomination, other people trot out these poll graphs from 2012 that show the Not-Romneys crashing one after another. What's even better is the poll that shows Trump beating Clinton/Biden/Sanders in the general is apparently just a weird outlier, but a single Iowa poll where Sanders has a very narrow lead on Clinton (with Biden as an option as well) is indicative of a trend.
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Sep 12, 2015 18:13
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Adorability is my single issue so this is actually v persuasive
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Sep 12, 2015 18:14
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i actually feel bad for him
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Sep 12, 2015 18:15
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Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:Carly strikes back "the party of women's suffrage" haha they're so desperate to wave around the GOP civil rights record of 100-150 years ago like it means poo poo
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Sep 12, 2015 18:17
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He must love those shoes. Edit: Rand Paul campaign, please hire someone to dress your candidate, because 
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Sep 12, 2015 18:20
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Abner Cadaver II posted:"the party of women's suffrage" haha they're so desperate to wave around the GOP civil rights record of 100-150 years ago like it means poo poo The party of the Northern aggression.
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Sep 12, 2015 18:22
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Wait, 10% growth in 10 years? Is he bragging about slowing economic growth to 1% a year?
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Sep 12, 2015 18:23
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steinrokkan posted:The party of the Northern aggression.
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Sep 12, 2015 18:23
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