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The fact that Graham is straight-up insulting GOP primary voters makes it evident that he doesn't give a poo poo about winning, which makes him a wild card w/r/t dropping out. Maybe he's campaigning for a post-Senate think tank job at CFR or something.
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Dec 11, 2015 19:41
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 this CNN debate speaking market is blowing my mind. How is trump YES going for 60c? He's obviously the favorite, and he dominated the last CNN debate, but he was upper-middle of the pack in both of the two most recent ones. I know FBN had said they were going to try to even out speaking time, but even if CNN doesn't do that, these prices are still crazy. I'll hold until kasich interrupts a couple times early or something, then try to sell them all.Shear Modulus posted:The fact that Graham is straight-up insulting GOP primary voters makes it evident that he doesn't give a poo poo about winning, which makes him a wild card w/r/t dropping out. Maybe he's campaigning for a post-Senate think tank job at CFR or something. He's obviously near the edge, but his connection to SC scares me, given they have one of the earliest primaries. I can imagine a mindset in which he'll want to hold off until then, or until a few weeks before, so he can give an endorsement and stay relevant at home
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Dec 11, 2015 19:49
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gently caress betting on speaking time and gently caress Ted Cruz. loving bullshit is what that was.
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Dec 11, 2015 21:21
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Could someone explain this to me https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1749/Will-Donald-Trump-become-a-third-party-presidential-candidate-in-2016#data https://www.predictit.org/Contract/982/Will-Donald-Trump-become-a-third-party-presidential-candidate-this-year#data
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Dec 12, 2015 12:20
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Jewel Repetition posted:Could someone explain this to me One is for 2015 and one is for 2016.
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Dec 12, 2015 12:38
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Gyges posted:gently caress betting on speaking time and gently caress Ted Cruz. loving bullshit is what that was. I lucked out so big last time on Cruz. He's too expensive this time. I'm not paying close to 50 cents for Trump. Kasich and Fioriana are cheap when you consider how much the former interrupts and the latter lies with such fluidity.
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Dec 12, 2015 19:08
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Anyone know how multiple lowest Buy shares are distributed? I'm the lowest offering but I'm tied with another lump of shares at the same price. Does the system take an even amount from each user when a sale takes place?
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Dec 12, 2015 20:38
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Peachstapler posted:Anyone know how multiple lowest Buy shares are distributed? I'm the lowest offering but I'm tied with another lump of shares at the same price. Does the system take an even amount from each user when a sale takes place? I believe that earlier offers have priority.
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Dec 12, 2015 20:41
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Peachstapler posted:Anyone know how multiple lowest Buy shares are distributed? I'm the lowest offering but I'm tied with another lump of shares at the same price. Does the system take an even amount from each user when a sale takes place? That's your position in the queue. When you first put in the sales order you'll notice that your order will be at the bottom. The number above yours are all the sell orders that were placed before you. The ones that show up later are the ones that were offered after. You'll notice that the above number will gradually get smaller while the one below will keep getting bigger as time moves on. tl;dr : PredictIt uses 'first in, first out' wherever possible
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Dec 12, 2015 20:42
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Thanks to both of you. Great info to have.
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Dec 12, 2015 20:45
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What I find annoying is that if you decide to reduce the number you want to sell, you can't do it without canceling and re-listing, losing your priority. Can be a killer if it's a slow moving market
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Dec 12, 2015 20:53
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New market: Will Romney become a candidate in 2016?
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Dec 13, 2015 06:14
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thethreeman posted:What I find annoying is that if you decide to reduce the number you want to sell, you can't do it without canceling and re-listing, losing your priority. Can be a killer if it's a slow moving market Yeah it is. If you have only one price position you want to sell, you can just sell the excess at a different (higher) price, then cancel the latter set. Say you have 20 shares, and 10 of them are up for sale at $.40. You decide you want to sell only 5. You can put in an order to sell 15 at $.99, then cancel it; you now have only 5 sell orders outstanding at $.40, preserving your place in the queue. If you have multiple sell orders, well, as far as I can tell there's no rhyme or reason how individual orders are cancelled when you oversell like this. The selection process seems to be random.
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Dec 13, 2015 07:16
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what the gently caress? why is this included after I already lost a bunch of money in the RNOM link because of his share price? he was pulling between .01 and .02 a day ago, and now .05 is acceptable?
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Dec 13, 2015 07:26
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Aliquid posted:what the gently caress? why is this included after I already lost a bunch of money in the RNOM link because of his share price? he was pulling between .01 and .02 a day ago, and now .05 is acceptable? Yeah, is there some trickery in the rules I'm not getting? Predictit posted:Former Massachusetts governor Willard Mitt Romney shall become a candidate for president of the United States in the 2016 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy and/or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee or principal campaign committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission.
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Dec 13, 2015 07:50
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There is speculation that Rand Paul is about to drop out, but the source people are quoting doesn't really seem to indicate as much at all. Either way, his contract is spiking in the "Next to drop out" market.
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Dec 13, 2015 09:13
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Adar posted:I am extremely bullish on Cruz. He has two months to gently caress up Iowa or for the masses to jump to the next clown over. If he is winning or a strong second to Trump in Iowa on caucus night, he is the favorite to win the nom. He's now in the same conversation with Rubio, which was inconceivable to most people six months ago. Wrap it up Trumpailures Selzer is the gold standard of Iowa polling. (This particular) soulless angry robot has about a 40% chance to be the nominee tbqh
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Dec 13, 2015 11:01
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Adar posted:Wrap it up Trumpailures I'm maxed out on most of the relevant markets on PredictIt but I'll take the NO side on a 3:2 bet on Cruz getting the nominee for whatever amount you want to do.
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Dec 13, 2015 13:36
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EngineerSean posted:I'm maxed out on most of the relevant markets on PredictIt but I'll take the NO side on a 3:2 bet on Cruz getting the nominee for whatever amount you want to do. He's still at 3.5:1 on Betfair so no need for that. I'll probably sell if he's at 3:2 by Christmas myself, just waiting for the market to move that far. The danger zone for his nom is the first two weeks of January; if he is still up 10 right after the last debate he's probably winning Iowa and then inside tracks the nom.
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Dec 13, 2015 13:53
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Adar posted:He's still at 3.5:1 on Betfair so no need for that. I'll probably sell if he's at 3:2 by Christmas myself, just waiting for the market to move that far. The danger zone for his nom is the first two weeks of January; if he is still up 10 right after the last debate he's probably winning Iowa and then inside tracks the nom. I should probably look into getting a Betfair account but you said they're not available in America, right?
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Dec 13, 2015 13:58
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EngineerSean posted:I should probably look into getting a Betfair account but you said they're not available in America, right? Correct, you need a non-US address/bank account.
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Dec 13, 2015 14:03
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If you bundle the top two choices for the CNN debate ratings it comes out to 80c shares on there being more than 20 million viewers. That's got to be easy money, right?
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Dec 13, 2015 18:54
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Vox Nihili posted:There is speculation that Rand Paul is about to drop out, but the source people are quoting doesn't really seem to indicate as much at all. Well I just made a nice chunk of change reversing my bet that he would make it into the CNN debate next week, thanks to logging into PI and reading its comments first. I didn't even know they were announcing it today at Fuschia tude has issued a correction as of 19:01 on Dec 13, 2015 |
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Dec 13, 2015 18:58
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platzapS posted:Medical device tax repeal is trading in the high eighties. Good bet? From what I can tell, this is freest of free money. Its been bumping between the mid 70's and 80's. The senate just voted 52-47 to repeal it. Every Democrat voted against the measure. For this to resolve as NO, Obama will need to sign the law, even thoughsigning it will completely gut the Affordable Health Care act. Otherwise congress will have to sustain the veto, which seeing how 100% of Senate Democrats voted NO, puts the chance of this happening somewhere around 0% I don't see how this could be interpreted any other way. Maybe the talk radio crowd is buying YES like a lottery ticket that they hope pays out? Zeta Taskforce has issued a correction as of 19:03 on Dec 13, 2015 |
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Dec 13, 2015 18:59
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Rand made the debate so he's back to normal prices
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Dec 13, 2015 19:38
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drat, missed the Rand announcement. That would have been amazing to catch. Carson still at 3c to win Iowa--feels like an incredible deal with Trump and Cruz about to go to war over the state. He's still popular and could easily come across as the wholesome, compromise evangelist choice. The average PI user rides the latest polling way too hard.
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Dec 13, 2015 20:32
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lmao someone just bought all my Rahm Resign shares at .29, up from .11 purchase price
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Dec 13, 2015 20:37
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Fuschia tude posted:Yeah it is. beautiful, thanks. never thought abut using that effect this way
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Dec 13, 2015 21:13
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Merry Christmas to me edit: lol 8 hours ago the price was 4, guess I could have bought a few more. EngineerSean has issued a correction as of 21:23 on Dec 13, 2015 |
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Dec 13, 2015 21:21
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EngineerSean posted:Merry Christmas to me Daaaamn this is one of the best bets I've seen in this thread. Nice job
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Dec 13, 2015 23:07
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Zeta Taskforce posted:From what I can tell, this is freest of free money. Its been bumping between the mid 70's and 80's. The senate just voted 52-47 to repeal it. Every Democrat voted against the measure. For this to resolve as NO, Obama will need to sign the law, even thoughsigning it will completely gut the Affordable Health Care act. Otherwise congress will have to sustain the veto, which seeing how 100% of Senate Democrats voted NO, puts the chance of this happening somewhere around 0% The news is that a delay or repeal may or may not be in the huge tax bill they're voting on tomorrow after the horse-trading is done. Shear Modulus has issued a correction as of 05:14 on Dec 14, 2015 |
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Dec 14, 2015 05:07
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drat, I bet the other way on that. (That Paul's whining to CNN about getting equal treatment to Fiorina would get her pushed to the kiddie debate)
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Dec 14, 2015 18:40
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A debate is pretty equally absurd with seven or nine participants so my reasoning was that they don't want to alienate someone with a potentially long future in the Senate.
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Dec 14, 2015 19:48
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Shear Modulus posted:The news is that a delay or repeal may or may not be in the huge tax bill they're voting on tomorrow after the horse-trading is done. Good point. I sold half my stake to the point where I will still come out ahead if it doesn't get repealed and it won't set me back that much if it does. I prefer incremental gains to big bets any day. Is it just me or are the comments getting stupider on there? Romstompa has to be the dumbest. We should be thankful though, as he/she is the echoest of the echo chamber. We probably made more money on Biden because of 12 posts a day interpreting every time he farted as a sign he was running. Now there are 5 posts a day bringing up irreverent facts proving that Trump is going to win zero primaries.
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Dec 14, 2015 21:04
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Discovery stage for Cruz begins now. If the GOP establishment comes out to back him be will be toast. If he lets Trump take the mantle as "true outsider" he is toast. If his Iowa support stumbles due to corn or anything else he is toast. Should be a fun month.
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Dec 14, 2015 21:07
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Vox Nihili posted:Discovery stage for Cruz begins now. If the GOP establishment comes out to back him be will be toast. If he lets Trump take the mantle as "true outsider" he is toast. If his Iowa support stumbles due to corn or anything else he is toast. Should be a fun month. Yeah I'm bearish on Cruz. I don't see him being able to take the heat seeing as he's half-melted already. I'm holding off on solidifying my Republican NO until after Jeb & Rubio make their moves but I'm slowly beginning to believe that Trump may actually pull this off. The fucker's only spent pocket change to feed his infrastructure and Fox was saying he was at 41% nationally this morning. I want someone to come in and tell me why I'm being retarded.
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Dec 14, 2015 21:27
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Vox Nihili posted:Carson still at 3c to win Iowa--feels like an incredible deal with Trump and Cruz about to go to war over the state. He's still popular and could easily come across as the wholesome, compromise evangelist choice. The average PI user rides the latest polling way too hard. Good call on this penny stock. Got 500 shares for $15 lol. Add that to my big stack of Cruz NOs, and if Carson pulls it off somehow I'm gonna have serious bank.
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Dec 14, 2015 21:50
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At this point the only ways Trump loses are a) if everyone but a Rubio or Bush drops out and the GOP elite successfully shoves him down the base's throat, or b) the insane "Trump is trying to lose" theory turns out to be true. Neither of which seem likely right now. The fact that GOP opinion-havers have incorrectly predicted Trump's demise for months, and that nobody is willing to go on the offensive except Kasich makes it look like nobody is going to actually do anything and he'll steamroll the field. I think I'll pick me up some of those Carson Iowa yes shares as well. Shear Modulus has issued a correction as of 22:07 on Dec 14, 2015 |
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Dec 14, 2015 21:58
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I also own exactly 500 Carson Iowa YES at .03. Cruz NO in Iowa is looking good, some buys out there around .34.
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Dec 14, 2015 22:12
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| # ? May 14, 2024 05:49 |
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With Iowa's GOP caucus-goers selecting such winners in recent memory as Huckabee and Santorum, Carson YES is a diamond in the rough. (I bought 316 .... because God so loved the world that he gave his one and only Son).
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Dec 14, 2015 22:20
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