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mugrim posted:What's the downside of cutting power? Cost incurred for renting generators? A picture of freezing children at the refuge (or some sort of mock-up) juxtaposed with the picture of that drowned refugee child with the headline "GUESS WHICH PICTURE CAUSES LIBERAL OUTRAGE AND WHICH ONE DOESN'T" on Breitbart. At present the hard right media (Breitbart, Infowars, etc) has been tiptoeing around the situation, waiting to see how it plays out. Because of the presence of women and children cutting the power is a potential propaganda coup for the hard right media. Might not be the worst outcome in the world, but I imagine it's a factor in the decision process.
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Jan 26, 2016 03:27
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They didn't cut the power because they didn't have the political will or any plan to do anything what so ever. It had nothing to do with whether they have the ability to do so or not. They could have spared the other ranches or provided alternate solutions, but nope, do absolutely nothing.OAquinas posted:Uh, pretty sure using chemical weapons on our own civilians (even batshit crazy ones) is still considered a Bad Thing in polite society. At least with the "Sleeping gas" (no such thing, etc) you can claim the fig leaf of "trying to be nonlethal" Your sarcasm meter broken?
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Jan 26, 2016 03:27
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Prester John posted:A picture of freezing children at the refuge (or some sort of mock-up) juxtaposed with the picture of that drowned refugee child with the headline "GUESS WHICH PICTURE CAUSES LIBERAL OUTRAGE AND WHICH ONE DOESN'T" on Breitbart. Those kids are, for the most part at least, already toast. They're gonna get Koreshed and, barring something like a dozen snipers all going turkey shoot when they don't expect it, there's little that can be done
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Jan 26, 2016 03:29
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oohhboy posted:They didn't cut the power because they didn't have the political will or any plan to do anything what so ever. It had nothing to do with whether they have the ability to do so or not. They could have spared the other ranches or provided alternate solutions, but nope, do absolutely nothing. The float increases when on NyQuil.
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Jan 26, 2016 03:29
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Can anyone suggest a good documentary covering the sovereign citizen movement? I'm trying to explain this stuff to friends, but realized it sounds utterly insane without already knowing some of the barebones stuff.
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Jan 26, 2016 03:31
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Prester John posted:"The feds aren't attacking because they have undercover agents among us" would be the rationale, and then eventually someone would be fingered as the undercover agent. Sort of like a heavily armed version of a round of Mafia. As a Millennial I posted:Someone at Daily Kos was nice enough to transcribe the video of Ammon's "negotiation" with the FBI, where he patiently explained to the FBI what their actual job is:
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Jan 26, 2016 03:32
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Intel&Sebastian posted:PJ's fine. He's got a richer fanfic for what the fbi is up to and I think its out there, but he made some fine contributions towards explaining the fbi non response from his own perspective. Just because someone wants to talk to him on his own terms or agrees doesn't mean everyone here suddenly elected him super sheriff of the something awful county resource center. I especially don't understand that view of things considering how and who he is getting questioned by. Prester John is a transchick, fyi, but it's perfectly reasonable to assume a goon is male even without the username.
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Jan 26, 2016 03:33
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Epic High Five posted:Those kids are, for the most part at least, already toast. They're gonna get Koreshed and, barring something like a dozen snipers all going turkey shoot when they don't expect it, there's little that can be done It's hard for me to not think of those children, because if this were 25 years ago I (and my siblings) might very well be one of the kids on that refuge. My own family was so radicalized that I didn't even get a social security number until I was 14, and I only got one then because I was the rebel that went to a public high school. I really loving feel for those kids because I know what it's like to be surrounded by a bunch of fatalistic shitbags as a kid and not be able to do anything about it except hope for the best. It is such a helpless, confused feeling. I'd sooner see every adult seditionist die in a hail of bullets than see any harm come to those kids.
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Jan 26, 2016 03:35
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Prester John posted:It's hard for me to not think of those children, because if this were 25 years ago I (and my siblings) might very well be one of the kids on that refuge. My own family was so radicalized that I didn't even get a social security number until I was 14, and I only got one then because I was the rebel that went to a public high school. I really loving feel for those kids because I know what it's like to be surrounded by a bunch of fatalistic as a kid and not be able to do anything about it but hope for the best. It is such a jelpless, confused feeling. I'd sooner see every adult seditionist die in a hail of bullets than see any harm come to those kids. We'd all rather see that, but the kids were brought specifically to die on camera to advance the cause and these people aren't being stopped or slowed down
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Jan 26, 2016 03:37
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OAquinas posted:Cost for other ranches/customers on the line, risk for the electrical worker to go out and do it in front of a bunch of armed paranoid nutjobs, and that it would do jack since they probably have generators on site as it stands. That still puts a clock on them which is better than no clock, and had power been cut early, along with creating a perimeter, their source of power would have been far more limited. Cutting the internet would have been helpful along with the power. This is not their crazy compound where they've been stashing poo poo to outlive the feds for generations. It scares the poo poo out of the middle ranged guys and prevents others from playing militia fantasy camp. OAquinas posted:It inconveniences the Bundys, but the risk/reward is probably skewed towards "not worth it" - especially if they don't plan on doing anything in the short term. You don't do it for the short term, you do it for the long term. It's not a short term solution, it's to give them leverage and options and the longer it goes the more options law enforcement will have.
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Jan 26, 2016 03:37
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mugrim posted:So what do you propose? Do you think these people are any less likely to take their own kids as hostages once they're on the road? What is your end game? Thought I said it already, but since it's not clear i'd call them on their bluff about the occupation. That was what this was originally all about. Occupying the refuge for the winter, that is. Obviously it's advanced into something more than that now, but that doesn't change the situation as it currently stands. My point was that outside of the core group they're unlikely to group together beyond the immediate aftermath of them leaving the refuge. If the news would stop loving reporting on it (Again, the media's starting to die down due to a lack of horrible tragedy/bloody slaughter/etc/etc to report on.) this situation never even would have gotten as far as it did. Instead the refuge itself has become a rallying point for all sorts of lunatics of different stripes. Attention fueled this becoming more of a thing than it did. And attention is keeping these assholes in the refuge. A protest like the one they're doing with no attention directed given towards it on a much larger scale than the protest itself is effectively a failure both in terms of its goal and in keeping support. Once they're out of the refuge most of the people who showed up past the initial group are going to go their own separate ways. Hell, from what I remember reading way back some of the original group called it quits when they realized what an immensely stupid idea it was that they had. So the situation is already a bit in favor for the FBI when it comes to charging the original group if they can wait things out to the point where they peacefully disperse. They can pick and choose who to charge from there. Even if the ring leaders get away with this poo poo by running away in one big violent mob making an example out of one of the more public figures will help deter this from happening again. While it's true that there's no shortage of people out there who will fabricate and believe any reason to rage at the government, it really needs to be emphasized that there is still a PR battle going on. What I don't want to see is shots fired. I don't want to see someone get killed. What I really don't want to see is the FBI being the one to escalate to outright violence first since with situations like this the media will more often than not make it seem like the situation is their fault to begin with. And with kids in the equation you can drat well be sure that's going to happen if shots are fired. The people who are going to literally fabricate reasons to pull poo poo like this are lost causes. They're going to act like assholes no matter what anyone does. Saying that the whole thing is a lost cause and that they're the reason why the FBI should go in (Which would probably force a firefight. Which might get those poor kids killed, which is reason enough for me at this point to avoid it.) without a clear statement of imminent violence from the militia is nuts. Having the situation be framed as another Waco (Which helped to legitimize groups like this in the first place.) after the fact helps pull new people into the sort of groups that are interested in acts like this. Which helps radicalize them and gives both them and the group itself more of a support network to stage fiasco's like this. Which helps start this poo poo all over again. So if the FBI wants to wait them out i'm for it. Hell, that's typically what they're supposed to do in this situation, barring some sort of event that makes it clear that the people occupying the refuge are about to hurt or kill someone. They negotiate, try to avoid antagonizing the perpetrators into escalating, and ultimately try to get them to leave or surrender peacefully. Then they throw the book at them if it's at all possible. They don't resort to balls to the walls violence except as a last resort. Archonex fucked around with this message at 04:04 on Jan 26, 2016 |
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Jan 26, 2016 03:38
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Is there any confirmation that children are actually STAYING at the compound, indefinitely? If so, isn't that a crime in of itself? Not that adding one more crime to the pile matters at this point.
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Jan 26, 2016 03:40
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mugrim posted:That still puts a clock on them which is better than no clock, and had power been cut early, along with creating a perimeter, their source of power would have been far more limited. Cutting the internet would have been helpful along with the power. This is not their crazy compound where they've been stashing poo poo to outlive the feds for generations. It scares the poo poo out of the middle ranged guys and prevents others from playing militia fantasy camp. Well, that's where "if you plan on doing something" comes into play. If you aren't going to even toss up a roadblock, cutting power just means that the Brave Regulated Militia goons have a petrol detail to head down to the nearest gas station every so often. Hell, they could probably arrange a tanker, given that they're still getting package delivery. So yeah, power cutting in isolation = bad idea/not worth it.
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Jan 26, 2016 03:41
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GreyjoyBastard posted:Prester John is a transchick, fyi, but it's perfectly reasonable to assume a goon is male even without the username. Thanks for pointing that out. I don't normally get too hung up on proper pronouns, but is appreciated. I'm changing my user name to Prester Jane next time I get paid to help clear up the confusion.
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Jan 26, 2016 03:43
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Thaaaanks. There's like 3 non famous goons I remember are women regularly so don't take it personally if I see you again pj. I think the kids being in there is a big deal that I forget about often. And I'd guess its a big reason the fbi doesn't want to chat about the situation seeing as some of them were walked into a compound full of nutbars and guns while they were on the case.
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Jan 26, 2016 03:43
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So I've mentioned before that my wife works for the Michigan Department of Natural Resources, which shares a building with the state's Environmental Quality department. Just tonight she told me that starting today they have increased armed security in her building starting this week for the foreseeable future for fear of militias in Michigan trying to commit attacks in sympathy to the Bundys. Which isn't outside of the realm of possibility considering Michigan's history with militias. All of a sudden this occupation is a lot less funny for me.
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Jan 26, 2016 03:45
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Who What Now posted:So I've mentioned before that my wife works for the Michigan Department of Natural Resources, which shares a building with the state's Environmental Quality department. Just tonight she told me that starting today they have increased armed security in her building starting this week for the foreseeable future for fear of militias in Michigan trying to commit attacks in sympathy to the Bundys. Which isn't outside of the realm of possibility considering Michigan's history with militias. Is the Michigan Militia still an actual active thing these days? Outside of picking up a broadcast of the audio book of "The Turner Diaries" on a random cb channel a few years back I haven't heard almost anything about them.
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Jan 26, 2016 03:50
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Prester John posted:A picture of freezing children at the refuge (or some sort of mock-up) juxtaposed with the picture of that drowned refugee child with the headline "GUESS WHICH PICTURE CAUSES LIBERAL OUTRAGE AND WHICH ONE DOESN'T" on Breitbart. There is no scenario or ending to this situation, other than letting the criminals walk away completely without being arrested, that will not be spun somehow. And even if that happens, there is no guarantee. Prester John posted:At present the hard right media (Breitbart, Infowars, etc) has been tiptoeing around the situation, waiting to see how it plays out. Because of the presence of women and children cutting the power is a potential propaganda coup for the hard right media. Might not be the worst outcome in the world, but I imagine it's a factor in the decision process. Whether the power is cut or not they will eventually cowtow to their people. You can't appease Alex loving Jones or worry about him outside of monitoring his nutters.
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Jan 26, 2016 03:54
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mugrim posted:There is no scenario or ending to this situation, other than letting the criminals walk away completely without being arrested, that will not be spun somehow. And even if that happens, there is no guarantee. I agree on both points. It is my contention that the maximum number of lives will be saved by waiting until violence really is the absolute last resort. Whatever happens will be spun, but how many people are swayed by that spin is still up in the air.
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Jan 26, 2016 03:56
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mrfreeze posted:Is the Michigan Militia still an actual active thing these days? Outside of picking up a broadcast of the audio book of "The Turner Diaries" on a random cb channel a few years back I haven't heard almost anything about them. They still exist, yes. They're less radical, but the radical members who did left just went and became even crazier fringe groups. I hear mention of militias every once in awhile.
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Jan 26, 2016 03:56
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Who What Now posted:So I've mentioned before that my wife works for the Michigan Department of Natural Resources, which shares a building with the state's Environmental Quality department. Just tonight she told me that starting today they have increased armed security in her building starting this week for the foreseeable future for fear of militias in Michigan trying to commit attacks in sympathy to the Bundys. Which isn't outside of the realm of possibility considering Michigan's history with militias. You'd better tell them to disperse the security, if they try to stop the patriots from marching in and doing whatever they want, there may be another Waco!
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Jan 26, 2016 03:56
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Archonex posted:Thought I said it already, but since it's not clear i'd call them on their bluff about the occupation. That was what this was originally all about. Occupying the refuge for the winter, that is. Obviously it's advanced into something more than that now, but that doesn't change the situation as it currently stands. At what point do they actually get arrested, and at that point why do you think they don't pull a gun out and start shooting their arresting officer? Edit: And for the billionth time, stop buying the militia bullshit about Waco. The feds did not curb stomp them to death, their batshit leader decided to burn them to the loving ground after two months of patiently waiting. They hosed up early on by not having Vernon arrested outside the compound, but past that point they were extremely patient and handled them with kid gloves.
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Jan 26, 2016 03:58
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mugrim posted:Will this ever change? The answer is yes. That's the whole point. mugrim posted:And I'll piggy back on this, I think Prestor is incredibly insightful to the mindset but at the same time I think his prescription is off. jfc cut it out, you jackass. mrfreeze posted:Can anyone suggest a good documentary covering the sovereign citizen movement? I'm trying to explain this stuff to friends, but realized it sounds utterly insane without already knowing some of the barebones stuff. Here you go. (seriously, there are some decent books and other text sources I can recommend, but not any film media that's particularly solid.) mugrim posted:That still puts a clock on them which is better than no clock, and had power been cut early, along with creating a perimeter, their source of power would have been far more limited. Cutting the internet would have been helpful along with the power. This is not their crazy compound where they've been stashing poo poo to outlive the feds for generations. It scares the poo poo out of the middle ranged guys and prevents others from playing militia fantasy camp. You "put up a perimeter" (not actually possible), other people in town start shooting. This has been explained to you multiple times. Incredibly, your ability to study google maps and come up with tactilol ideas for strategic containment isn't quite as good as that of the FBI. mrfreeze posted:Is the Michigan Militia still an actual active thing these days? Outside of picking up a broadcast of the audio book of "The Turner Diaries" on a random cb channel a few years back I haven't heard almost anything about them. Like most militia groups, it's splintered several times without an instigating event to maintain its cohesion. Numbers are on the rise again since Obama's election, but are still a fraction of their former levels due to a lack of stronger events (say, a bloody shootout with federal authorities in Harman county) and the aforementioned splintering.
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Jan 26, 2016 04:00
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If you accept that the outcome is going to be spun by the usual suspects into complete bullshit fantasy land then you need to work for the best end result for reality. Letting them go scott free is not that.
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Jan 26, 2016 04:00
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Taerkar posted:If you accept that the outcome is going to be spun by the usual suspects into complete bullshit fantasy land then you need to work for the best end result for reality. No one is talking about letting them go scott free. No one here is advocating that, and it hasn't happened. The difference is in when you arrest them and in how compelling you let the bullshit narrative become. Force at the compound is what these people want because it makes their cause seem more legitimate.
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Jan 26, 2016 04:03
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How much of a role does Mormon fundamentalism weirdness play into this? On a scale of fun family cookout to baby decapitation scene from Under the Banner of Heaven
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Jan 26, 2016 04:05
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mugrim posted:At what point do they actually get arrested, and at that point why do you think they don't pull a gun out and start shooting their arresting officer? I said when I was hoping they'd be arrested in my posts. Twice.  And i'd think it was pretty loving obvious that I don't believe the FBI was responsible for Waco given that I just typed up a massive amount of  explaining that i'd like to avoid a situation where they were perceived by the greater whole of the nation as being responsible for another Waco-esque situation. You're putting words in my mouth and ignoring the ones i'm actually typing. Archonex fucked around with this message at 04:13 on Jan 26, 2016 |
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Jan 26, 2016 04:11
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Epic High Five posted:How much of a role does Mormon fundamentalism weirdness play into this? On a scale of fun family cookout to baby decapitation scene from Under the Banner of Heaven On the scale, I'd rate it uncomfortable surprise invitation to reading group. The leaders of the occupants and some of their immediate circle are following an approach that's blended elements of Mormon fundmentalism into it, but all the problems of the ideology are coming from outside sources. The Bundy's haven't tried to claim multiple wives or any of the other values generally found in fringe Mormonism beyond general separatist leanings, and generalized christian right-wing oddness(e.g. the Shofars).
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Jan 26, 2016 04:12
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Discendo Vox posted:You "put up a perimeter" (not actually possible), other people in town start shooting. This has been explained to you multiple times. Incredibly, your ability to study google maps and come up with tactilol ideas for strategic containment isn't quite as good as that of the FBI. Stop pushing this BS. A blockade has always been an option and screaming Waco is self hostageing thought process.
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Jan 26, 2016 04:13
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Discendo Vox posted:No one is talking about letting them go scott free. No one here is advocating that, and it hasn't happened. The difference is in when you arrest them and in how compelling you let the bullshit narrative become. Force at the compound is what these people want because it makes their cause seem more legitimate. No one here is specifically advocating for it, no. But you are, in fact, advocating for things that will lead to that exact outcome regardless. So in practice you are.
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Jan 26, 2016 04:13
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Taerkar posted:If you accept that the outcome is going to be spun by the usual suspects into complete bullshit fantasy land then you need to work for the best end result for reality. I'm all for arresting them once they have dispersed. I am also pissed that the Bundy Ranch participants haven't recieved the business end of a federal indictment, and I would argue that has been a mistake that contributed to this present situation. That said, based on my own experiences with the mindset of such groups, I still think extreme caution is still the best course at present. Aside from the fact that this group will only discredit their entire movement with their antics, groups like this cannot manage stressful situations long term unless there is a visible threat to unite against. While the point at which the militia would have fallen apart on its own before it could force a serious engagement has likely passed at this point, it is still a non-zero chance. (The last Bundy incident fell apart in like 5 days after the feds packed up and left. Someone in the FBI leaked to the Oathkeepers that a drone strike was coming that night, this caused the Oathkeepers to pull out and urge everyone else to either pull out or spread out and dig in. This was interpreted as treason by some of the other militias and there were several incidents that almost turned into shootouts as a result.) Prester Jane fucked around with this message at 04:16 on Jan 26, 2016 |
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Jan 26, 2016 04:14
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Set up a ring of glorious fire around the buildings. If they're truly right wing manly men they won't be able to resist oiling and war painting themselves up and wrestling shirtless for alpha status If they complain about the smoke or how it's keeping them up then broadcast that to the nation Discendo Vox posted:On the scale, I'd rate it uncomfortable surprise invitation to reading group. This is good to hear. I wish I hadn't read that book sometimes
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Jan 26, 2016 04:16
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Who What Now posted:No one here is specifically advocating for it, no. But you are, in fact, advocating for things that will lead to that exact outcome regardless. So in practice you are. How so? Show your work.
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Jan 26, 2016 04:17
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Discendo Vox posted:The answer is yes. That's the whole point. Then we have a strong disagreement on this then. I'm basing their propensity to commit violence by their open admissions they want to, as well as their positioning to do so, and the fact they're associated with multiple murders. Discendo Vox posted:jfc cut it out, you jackass. Not sure why I'm getting that kind of anger for liking Prestor. Prestor's writing on the ACE community is top notch and I stand by it. His authoritarian references are great and has helped with my personal reading on cults. Just because someone is mentally ill doesn't mean they can't have insight or good ideas. Here you go. (seriously, there are some decent books and other text sources I can recommend, but not any film media that's particularly solid.) Discendo Vox posted:You "put up a perimeter" (not actually possible), other people in town start shooting. This has been explained to you multiple times. Incredibly, your ability to study google maps and come up with tactilol ideas for strategic containment isn't quite as good as that of the FBI. So they are not an immediate threat but the moment you put up a perimeter their cronies come out of the hills and shoot? Sounds a lot like they're an immediate threat and there is no way to address this that doesn't involve someone taking shots. Discendo Vox posted:Like most militia groups, it's splintered several times without an instigating event to maintain its cohesion. Numbers are on the rise again since Obama's election, but are still a fraction of their former levels due to a lack of stronger events (say, a bloody shootout with federal authorities in Harman county) and the aforementioned splintering. So how do you arrest them without risking a bloodshed?
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Jan 26, 2016 04:18
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oohhboy posted:Stop pushing this BS. A blockade has always been an option and screaming Waco is self hostageing thought process. https://twitter.com/Patztense/status/691621728229941248 
GameCube fucked around with this message at 04:20 on Jan 26, 2016 |
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Jan 26, 2016 04:18
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This guy was headed to join his friends at the refuge when the cops arrested him on suspicion of DUI. Skip to 4:55 if you want to see how he reacts to being arrested: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DyAVjIndWOE I'm guessing that threatening to kill the cops should keep him in jail?
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Jan 26, 2016 04:24
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Archonex posted:I said when I was hoping they'd be arrested in my posts. Twice. Right, but when do you arrest them? That fundamental question never got answered. You essentially allude to it saying 'later' after they 'go their separate ways' but there is no later where they are not armed. There's zero reason they can't just immediately start the exact same poo poo once again short of making arresting them a priority. Source: This isn't the first time they've done this exact same thing.
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Jan 26, 2016 04:24
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Discendo Vox posted:How so? Show your work. See: the last time this exact same thing happened. Now please show your own work about how just ignoring these assholes will make them peacefully disperse so they can be rounded up. You know, like I've asked you to do no less than six times now?
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Jan 26, 2016 04:26
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So do nothing ever cause maybe violence ever? Never stopped you guys going after any other group that have threaten violence real, fabricated or non-existent. I guess rule of law is out and violence is the only law anybody should follow. It's Natural Law right?
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Jan 26, 2016 04:28
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mugrim posted:Right, but when do you arrest them? That fundamental question never got answered. You essentially allude to it saying 'later' after they 'go their separate ways' but there is no later where they are not armed. There's zero reason they can't just immediately start the exact same poo poo once again short of making arresting them a priority. Do you genuinely want us to write down a future date in time, down to the second to when they would be arrested? Right now we don't even loving know if they'll survive the eventual standoff that will arise because at this point it's all but going to happen.
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Jan 26, 2016 04:32
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