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I'm not understanding how each number was calculated, but ok Ah, gently caress it. Again, this is why I couldn't bet on this stuff myself FourLeaf has issued a correction as of 08:41 on Jan 25, 2016 |
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Jan 25, 2016 07:56
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Yeah I can't believe I bought 100 shares of Trump Sweep NO. I of course thought "no one has ever done that and conventional wisdom is..." When you start using the phrase conventional wisdom with Trump, you need to back away slowly. If he wins Iowa (and Cruz's worthlessness has rocketed him into the graveyard of lovely losers), the other 3 are practically a lock.
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Jan 25, 2016 18:14
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The appropriate price for Trump sweep is 3-4% lower than Trump Iowa, and even that gap is only the Nevada uncertainty factor. (No polls in NV since October and no one's campaigning there)
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Jan 25, 2016 18:29
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Patter Song posted:The appropriate price for Trump sweep is 3-4% lower than Trump Iowa, and even that gap is only the Nevada uncertainty factor. (No polls in NV since October and no one's campaigning there) Nevada is a natural fit for Trump and Cruz, and if Trump has Iowa and NH then he's a lock.
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Jan 25, 2016 19:52
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pathetic little tramp posted:Yeah I can't believe I bought 100 shares of Trump Sweep NO. I of course thought "no one has ever done that and conventional wisdom is..."
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Jan 25, 2016 20:01
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Trump No in Iowa now at 31c. I think Cruz's numbers will benefit from his very strong ground game, a good debate performance immediately prior, and the tendency of the caucus process to favor committed, passionate supporters. I am considering buying 500 Trump No shares. Someone talk me out of it.
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Jan 25, 2016 21:08
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Vox Nihili posted:Trump No in Iowa now at 31c. I think Cruz's numbers will benefit from his very strong ground game, a good debate performance immediately prior, and the tendency of the caucus process to favor committed, passionate supporters. I am considering buying 500 Trump No shares. Someone talk me out of it. Do you think Trump will lose Iowa, or are you just anticipating that the market will rebound between now and the first of February?
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Jan 25, 2016 21:12
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Platystemon posted:Do you think Trump will lose Iowa, or are you just anticipating that the market will rebound between now and the first of February? I think Trump has at best a 50/50 shot at Iowa. I don't know how the market will move, but there is a pretty solid wall at 70/30.
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Jan 25, 2016 21:14
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edit: Nevermind. For 50/50 chances 31 cents is obviously a good investment.
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Jan 25, 2016 21:41
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lol I had a Bloomberg buy in at 18c and a sell in at 40c when I went to bed, and woke up this morning ~20c richer... I often just buy one share to make it easier to keep track of markets I'm interested in. Wish I'd bought a lot more One of my biggest complaints about predictit: no "watchlist" for markets/contracts in which you don't own shares
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Jan 25, 2016 22:03
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thethreeman posted:lol I had a Bloomberg buy in at 18c and a sell in at 40c when I went to bed, and woke up this morning ~20c richer... I often just buy one share to make it easier to keep track of markets I'm interested in. Wish I'd bought a lot more If you guys are interested I can probably make a service with their recently opened API that watches all their markets and sends out customized alerts.
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Jan 25, 2016 22:07
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Vox Nihili posted:Trump No in Iowa now at 31c. I think Cruz's numbers will benefit from his very strong ground game, a good debate performance immediately prior, and the tendency of the caucus process to favor committed, passionate supporters. I am considering buying 500 Trump No shares. Someone talk me out of it. I'm never one to hold onto loser shares if I don't think the event will happen anymore, at least I try to be that way. That said I continue to hold onto my Cruz Iowa shares as I've ridden them down because the market seems to always dropped too far below what I see as reality. I think 50/50 is pretty fair odds. Trump is on a roll but Cruz just fits too close the mold of the candidate Iowa goes for and I keep hearing about his ground game. The only good news is I bet as big on Trump NH in the low 50's so that has balanced out the Cruz losses. The other thing I'm doing that I file in the lottery ticket category is I have been building a Kasich position in Minnesota and Vermont averaging 2 or 3 cents. He's too expensive in Mass, but I'm still keeping an eye on it. No big deal if he flames out in NH, but if he does emerge as the story (like he hopes) he will try to build on it in these more moderate northern/mid western states.
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Jan 25, 2016 22:11
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Necc0 posted:If you guys are interested I can probably make a service with their recently opened API that watches all their markets and sends out customized alerts.
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Jan 25, 2016 22:18
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Necc0 posted:If you guys are interested I can probably make a service with their recently opened API that watches all their markets and sends out customized alerts. That would be cool. In the meantime, folks can put in single buy orders at 1 cent to stand-in for a watch option.
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Jan 25, 2016 22:44
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So, how's everybody feel about Rand making the next debate? Market's been crazy today, saw it shoot all the way up to 95 cents for Yes. I have some cheap NOs, but I'm feeling nervous about them.
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Jan 26, 2016 00:46
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He might just make the criteria, but I really think Fox is going to change what polls they look at until they can exclude him. Ratings have been dipping, Rand's a loser, we need less people on the stage.
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Jan 26, 2016 00:56
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Necc0 posted:If you guys are interested I can probably make a service with their recently opened API that watches all their markets and sends out customized alerts. That sounds awesome. I would be down.
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Jan 26, 2016 00:59
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Parakeet vs. Phone posted:So, how's everybody feel about Rand making the next debate? Managed to sell all my Noes and glad of it. I think they just might have to let him in. BTW, wacky town hall question topics are LIVE!
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Jan 26, 2016 01:03
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Vox Nihili posted:Managed to sell all my Noes and glad of it. I think they just might have to let him in. jongordon is doing a good job at trolling the poo poo out of the comments section. I can't imagine a world where Christie is out and Paul is in.
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Jan 26, 2016 02:40
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Ohhhh fuckkk, I forgot about the 15% rule in Iowa. Bernie's going to win it isn't he.
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Jan 26, 2016 04:22
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a cop posted:Ohhhh fuckkk, I forgot about the 15% rule in Iowa. Bernie's going to win it isn't he. The population demographics are spread out against his favor. He could win 52-48% and still lose on delegate count.
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Jan 26, 2016 04:32
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Aliquid posted:The population demographics are spread out against his favor. He could win 52-48% and still lose on delegate count. That's what I'm hoping. I just imagine that most Omalley's will go for the bern.
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Jan 26, 2016 04:33
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I like Bernie but he better fuckin lose Iowa
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Jan 26, 2016 05:09
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User Error posted:I like Bernie but he better fuckin lose Iowa Same
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Jan 26, 2016 05:15
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User Error posted:I like Bernie but he better fuckin lose Iowa I'm really incredibly split: I'd love for Bernie to take Iowa and start some sort of Cinderella story against Hillary for the nom but that luxury would end up costing me something to the tune of $300 if it happened 
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Jan 26, 2016 05:18
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Aliquid posted:The population demographics are spread out against his favor. He could win 52-48% and still lose on delegate count. I'm not sure how the market will work. In the past, the media has been all about the popular vote on these things--delegate count comes later and no one really gives a poo poo at that point. In other news, it was a good day for me: 
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Jan 26, 2016 05:27
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poo poo, I forgot to get in on that market. Were those yes or no?
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Jan 26, 2016 05:52
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Gibberish posted:poo poo, I forgot to get in on that market. Were those yes or no? All No.
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Jan 26, 2016 06:02
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Vox Nihili posted:I'm not sure how the market will work. In the past, the media has been all about the popular vote on these things--delegate count comes later and no one really gives a poo poo at that point. The market closing date is like Feb 29. Does it normally take 4+ weeks to determine the delegate count? The fact that they're keeping it open that long suggests to me that they're not going by day 1 vote totals.
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Jan 26, 2016 06:03
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Fuschia tude posted:The market closing date is like Feb 29. Does it normally take 4+ weeks to determine the delegate count? The fact that they're keeping it open that long suggests to me that they're not going by day 1 vote totals. Might just be in case there's a Romney/Santorum situation like last election, where they were virtually tied. How long did it take Iowa to call it for Santorum?
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Jan 26, 2016 10:17
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Two weeks were given to the 99 counties to get their votes counted. Then they were tallied up and about 16 days after the polls closed did we finally hear it was Rick Santorum.
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Jan 26, 2016 13:39
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Garrand posted:So just how much cash have some of you dumped into this? I've deposited a grand total of 70 bucks at this point into a couple fairly sure bet markets. I'm too poor to be gambling, really. I deposited $3k because I killed it in 08 and 12 on other sites that have since died. At one point I was up $1.5k but now I'm down $500. I feel good about my Clinton in Iowa bet, hitting that will put me back in the green. Once I get that cash, it will all go into feeling the Bern in NH. Trump sweep NO to sweep seems like a good market too. User Error posted:I like Bernie but he better fuckin lose Iowa Word
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Jan 26, 2016 17:07
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Bernie is down maybe two points in Iowa and has momentum on his side now. I would be very concerned betting on Hillary (also, betting on Bernie).
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Jan 26, 2016 17:11
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I'm sure we all are. I know I am, but I'm currently in the red on that bet and it's either bail and lose or submit to the Iowa coin toss.
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Jan 26, 2016 17:16
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Vox Nihili posted:Bernie is down maybe two points in Iowa and has momentum on his side now. I would be very concerned betting on Hillary (also, betting on Bernie). Yeah I have a little bit on NO Hillary in Iowa since I was able to get it really cheap. But I'm not betting big in Iowa because I'm not confident either way.
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Jan 26, 2016 18:20
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What's up with Rand Paul making the debate?
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Jan 26, 2016 20:05
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He wasn't going to but polls swung in his favor I made a tasty profit on that one
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Jan 26, 2016 20:15
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Basically betting on whether you think Fox will find a way to screw him. Polls theoretically say he should be in, but Fox hasn't confirmed which ones they're going to count, and they probably don't want him in. I feel that 90-10 is overvaluing his chance of getting in, but there's about 4 hours left, so you're really buying to hold now. It's risky, since there's a pretty decent chance they'll have to let him in.
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Jan 26, 2016 20:18
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I’m not touching this one because of how close Christie is as well. If Paul were the only candidate in limbo, I think he’d be more likely to be screwed. He acted like a huge baby when he missed the last debate (which was also on a Fox channel).
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Jan 26, 2016 20:23
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| # ? May 18, 2024 16:39 |
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 new markets just now opened up!!
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Jan 26, 2016 22:22
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