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Potrzebie posted:Konkurs means bankruptcy in Swedish. The thought of Russia exporting bad economic situations made me giggle. I'm not sure the Ukraine feels the same way but linguistic serendipity is funny nonetheless. Also Central Asia.
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Feb 16, 2016 08:03
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Fanatic posted:It's interesting reading Bashar's wiki. He basically did nothing political before becoming president, which was thrust on him because his brother died in a car accident. Then virtually ran the country into the ground due to incompetence, which leads us to where we are now. It does make you wonder where we would be if his brother wore a seatbelt back in 1994. It does, but the idea of Basel running the country is scary in its own right. This is a really good book that digs into that whole dynamic of Bashar just being thrust into the forefront one day. http://www.amazon.com/Syria-The-Fall-House-Assad/dp/0300186517
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Feb 16, 2016 08:25
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Holy crap is that northern rebel pocket literally vaporizing rapidly.
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Feb 16, 2016 08:52
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I'm curious, does China not have any role or interest in any of this? I assume they're more focused on the Pacific and just back Iran/Russia in a general sense? I'd heard talk of potential tension increasing between China and Russia/Iran as Chinese soft power spreads through Central Asia and there has been that Uyghur stuff. I remember talk page of ISIS trying to capitalize on that but I guess it didn't get very far? What's the general role of the Chinese in the Middle East/Arab world right now? Is Syria just a curious quagmire their rivals around the world are entangled in? Nothing too significant? I heard they had a new base in Djibouti.
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Feb 16, 2016 09:40
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lilljonas posted:Holy crap is that northern rebel pocket literally vaporizing rapidly. It's figuratively vaporizing rapidly.
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Feb 16, 2016 10:17
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Thug Lessons posted:It's figuratively vaporizing rapidly. No. Like, liquified rebel corpses are vaporizing in the Syrian sun.
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Feb 16, 2016 10:23
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It looks to me like NATO* & Russia each have their 'sides', and they are mopping up the rest. I can see the conflict freezing with the Kurd north under NATO* protection, with Assad/Russia holding the south and.. freeze. * NATO is not a monolithic block controlled by US policy. Turkeys wishes don't count for a whole hill of beans, but there is no way Erdogans political career can survive taking Turkey out of NATO. As they don't see the Kurds as being a viable (political) ally the only free actors left are the rebels, and NATO structure allows them to back a different side so long as they don't directly go against NATO as a whole (small artillery skirmishes or the odd plane shot down don't count). So Saudi & Turkey get a roll of the dice to prop them up, the end result being that there's some shiny new kit for the Kurds to grab when the rebels inevitably defect/lose those areas to one of the great powers. This way, they get to wave their militaries around, maybe blow up some 'others' for local political points, but neither Saudi or Turkey are going to meaningfully affect the direct US/Russia partitioning that is going on.
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Feb 16, 2016 10:48
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Looks like Turkey is preparing to go into Syria with its allies https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/699537886727835648 https://twitter.com/andrewchappelle/status/699537965937258500 https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/699535341921894400
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Feb 16, 2016 11:19
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Poorly sourced, questionable documents on Reddit claim that France attacked Libya to stop Gaddafi's long dreamed of African Union. Has this been leaked anywhere that isn't a cesspool of conspiracy theories and neo-Nazis?
KiteAuraan fucked around with this message at 11:22 on Feb 16, 2016 |
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Feb 16, 2016 11:20
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KiteAuraan posted:Poorly source, questionable documents on Reddit claim that France attacked Libya to stop Gaddafi's long dreamed of African Union. Has this been leaked anywhere that isn't a cesspool of conspiracy theories and neo-Nazis? I'm gonna say no.
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Feb 16, 2016 11:21
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A cursory Google search of the documents basically just leads back to Reddit, Drudge and conspiracy forums. So yeah. Also, the guy who sent it to me is a bit believer in whatever RT pushes so that makes it suspect.
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Feb 16, 2016 11:25
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Brown Moses posted:Looks like Turkey is preparing to go into Syria with its allies Nah, they are making it conditional on the US joining the fun, which will never happen. quote:"Turkey is not going to have a unilateral ground operation. We are asking coalition partners that there should be a ground operation. We are discussing this with allies," the official told reporters at a briefing in Istanbul. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-turkey-coalition-idUSKCN0VP127
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Feb 16, 2016 11:42
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Dusty Baker 2 posted:Also the Iraqi PMF released uh a music video The Peshmerga is really good at music videos. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGvbx2q1yf0
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Feb 16, 2016 11:48
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GaussianCopula posted:Nah, they are making it conditional on the US joining the fun, which will never happen. That's possibly Erdogans best play from here, the big question is how much do the US & rest of NATO care to stop it?
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Feb 16, 2016 12:03
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Banana Man posted:Why do TOWS look like they move really weird from behind? Like they seem to pause and jump around. SAA doesn't have TOWs because USA isn't supplying Syria. The missile used in that video is Konkurs (NATO name AT-5 Spandrel) or its Iranian made copy but the guidance is similar. The operator keeps the target in his sight and the sighting device tracks an IR flare in the base of the missile and then gives the missiles steering orders via wire so that it would stay on course to what the operator is aiming at. This means a constant stream of micro adjustments. When a missile like that isn't flying like a bumble bee it means that guidance has been disrupted eg. due to jamming.
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Feb 16, 2016 12:05
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APGM Should have shrapnel / HE / napalm / WP / flechette warheads. WP for illumination / smoke only 
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Feb 16, 2016 12:09
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GaussianCopula posted:Nah, they are making it conditional on the US joining the fun, which will never happen. That article doesn't really imply what either of you are saying. It's extremely vague, referencing a "consensus" of "allies" which could mean almost anything.
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Feb 16, 2016 12:09
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OzyMandrill posted:That's possibly Erdogans best play from here, the big question is how much do the US & rest of NATO care to stop it? I would disagree here. First of all Turkey (and the Saudis) need some kind of protection against Russian/Iran air strikes, which means at least an endorsement from the US, if not more. Than the question becomes if the Saudis want to antagonize Moscow just to help Erdogan, given that they just made a deal to stabilize the oil price. Additionally the best option for Erdogan would probably be to strike a deal with Moscow, accepting Assad under the condition that the Kurds get crushed. That would be a win-win situation for both parties involved as the Kurds do not really have someone that will stand up for them, but it's doubtful whether Erdogan's pride would let him strike such a bargain.
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Feb 16, 2016 12:14
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They already have a protection from airstrikes on Turkish soil, namely Article 5 of the NATO charter.
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Feb 16, 2016 12:21
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Turkey also has the 2nd best military in NATO; they could hold their own vs Russia if Russia didn't go all in and avoided hitting targets within Turkey.
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Feb 16, 2016 12:22
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Baloogan posted:Turkey also has the 2nd best military in NATO; they could hold their own vs Russia if Russia didn't go all in and avoided hitting targets within Turkey. If this nightmare Clancy scenario played out The Russian Navy would almost certainly face defeat in the Black Sea. I don't see Putin risking Crimea, and all he's worked for in reestablishing a presence in the southern seas.
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Feb 16, 2016 12:51
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sparatuvs posted:If this nightmare Clancy scenario played out The Russian Navy would almost certainly face defeat in the Black Sea. Agree. the whole point of 'Great Game' proxy wars is you don't resort to actually going to war with another great power or their allies. We've seen what that leads to, so now we have use other countries as prophylactics.
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Feb 16, 2016 12:55
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OzyMandrill posted:That big chunk of ISIS between the Kurdish blocks is looking mighty fragile. It must be. ISIS has been unable to stop the SAA advance east of Aleppo, and hasn't launched any significant counter attacks against government territory. They haven't attempted to retake the YPG salient on the West bank of the Euphrates. And they haven't tried to take advantage of the rebel collapse in Northern Aleppo. I wonder how many ISIS fighters there are in that area? Maybe they're all hunkering down in Dabiq, no point in dying now and missing the last battle.
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Feb 16, 2016 13:01
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Seem Russia's new tactic [url=http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160216/1034831694/syria-hospital-us-coalition.html?utm_source=https%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2FYy4aSNDBSc&utm_medium=short_url&utm_content=aDpQ&utm_campaign=URL_shortening]is blaming the US for every hospital bombing[/url[quote:“Reconnaissance data shows that the planes carrying out the strikes on these civilian facilities took to the skies from the US base in Turkey’s Incirlik where US-led coalition and Turkish airplanes are based,” Senator Igor Morozov told RIA Novosti.
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Feb 16, 2016 13:17
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Brown Moses posted:Seem Russia's new tactic is blaming the US for every hospital bombing It would be funny if not for the fact that alot of people will gobble this right up
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Feb 16, 2016 13:22
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So this has been circlulating https://twitter.com/studies_center/status/699339389449715712/photo/1 What is InformNapalm?
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Feb 16, 2016 13:36
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KiteAuraan posted:Poorly sourced, questionable documents on Reddit claim that France attacked Libya to stop Gaddafi's long dreamed of African Union. Has this been leaked anywhere that isn't a cesspool of conspiracy theories and neo-Nazis? I remember this coming up in the thread during the actual rebellion against Gaddafi and it was ridiculous even back then. The joke in this rubbish is: There already is an African Union. It even has its own army, the ASF. (African Standby Force) The African Union replaced an older Panafrican organisation back in 2002. The central seat of the AU is Addis Abeba and the Panafrican parliament is in Johannesburg, South Africa. Wikipedia article It's true however that Gaddafi was all for this and pushed the foundation of the African Union forward a lot. It's just the African Union just rolled along fine while he was getting his comeuppance. The really funny thing is, last year Obama held a speach in front of the AU in Addis Abeba. So while some braindead idiots are toting this idea around, the president of the US went over and talked to the actually real and existing African Union.
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Feb 16, 2016 13:42
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KiteAuraan posted:Poorly sourced, questionable documents on Reddit claim that France attacked Libya to stop Gaddafi's long dreamed of African Union. Has this been leaked anywhere that isn't a cesspool of conspiracy theories and neo-Nazis? I dont get why people try to use that prick as bloody shirt for the "international" or other left/right bullshit. the dude had a rape dungeon and killed protesters with a flack canons. he got what he deserved.
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Feb 16, 2016 13:43
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Apparently Marea has surrendered to the SDF. https://twitter.com/cahitstorm/status/699567977247563777 quote:Mare rebels agreed to expel turkish backed jihadists and to join democratic forces led by YPG & FSA. https://twitter.com/jenanmoussa/status/699554083930148865 https://twitter.com/jenanmoussa/status/699560751346765825 quote:#Break: city of Mare (symbol of revolution) reaches deal with Jaish AlThuwar (part SDF) to prevent fighting in city. (how do you embed tweets? EDIT - ah, just post the links. Nice.) mediadave fucked around with this message at 13:53 on Feb 16, 2016 |
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Feb 16, 2016 13:51
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This is good news about Mare. I wonder where those groups will go to, though? They have a choice between fighting the Kurds elsewhere, going to Turkey, or going to ISIS.
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Feb 16, 2016 14:11
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Invicta{HOG}, M.D. posted:This is good news about Mare. I wonder where those groups will go to, though? They have a choice between fighting the Kurds elsewhere, going to Turkey, or going to ISIS. Or start an insurgency close to home once the pocket's overrun.
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Feb 16, 2016 14:15
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54.4 crowns posted:So this has been circlulating An outing website led by Ukrainians and Georgians. Sometimes they threaten to release X information if Russia won't stop its militias from shelling that Ukrainian village. Fun thing is that the Russian government is quite pissed at them and has been trying to take the website offline.
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Feb 16, 2016 14:36
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Thug Lessons posted:They already have a protection from airstrikes on Turkish soil, namely Article 5 of the NATO charter. NATO's a defensive alliance, so if Turkey invades Syria and takes a few hits in border skirmishes, they probably don't get to drag the rest of NATO into a war they chose. Nobody really knows where the actual line would be though, which means Russia may be overly cautious or that they'd possibly miscalculate and start off something bigger than they wanted.
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Feb 16, 2016 14:40
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I'm excited to know what will happen when the Kurds have taken all Kurdish territory from ISIL and other groups and the only land left between them and a unified Syrian Kurdistan are the regime pockets in Qamishli and Hasakah and whatever they want in Aleppo province.
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Feb 16, 2016 14:41
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Sinteres posted:NATO's a defensive alliance, so if Turkey invades Syria and takes a few hits in border skirmishes, they probably don't get to drag the rest of NATO into a war they chose. Nobody really knows where the actual line would be though, which means Russia may be overly cautious or that they'd possibly miscalculate and start off something bigger than they wanted. Yes, one would hope the US would not be so stupid as to get into a shooting war with a fellow nuclear power over Syria of all things.
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Feb 16, 2016 14:56
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So Saudi Arabia and Russia just agreed to something. quote:Oil ministers from three Opec countries, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Venezuela, as well as Russia, have agreed to freeze oil output at January levels, as long as others follow suit. http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35564492 This is... unexpected. I guess the Saudis are starting to hurt in the pocketbook?
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Feb 16, 2016 15:18
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KiteAuraan posted:Poorly sourced, questionable documents on Reddit claim that France attacked Libya to stop Gaddafi's long dreamed of African Union. Has this been leaked anywhere that isn't a cesspool of conspiracy theories and neo-Nazis? You only have to ask yourself if Gaddafi's dream had a realistic chance of happening at all even without Western involvement. I mean there's a real African Union that exists, so what is the African Union of Gaddafi's dreams? It's Gaddafi's Empire of United Gaddafia, and there's no way it was going to happen. The guy was a deluded madman. Cat Mattress fucked around with this message at 15:37 on Feb 16, 2016 |
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Feb 16, 2016 15:33
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Count Roland posted:So Saudi Arabia and Russia just agreed to something. They've been hurting for a long time, if I recall. It was either start pinching the spigots off, raise taxes, cut services, or buy fewer solid gold lamborghinis for their kids, and each of those has certain undesirable effects. If they freeze output at January levels that just means oil stops its nosedive (and the intermediaries start spiking their future delivery prices because OH MAN THEY'RE GONNA EMBARGO ANY DAY NOW or something) and Russia needs something like triple current prices to balance their budget due to how petro-centric their economy is. So it's more like they're preventing heavier bleeding as opposed to anything else.
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Feb 16, 2016 15:44
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It's a bleed-off, the objective is to bleed everyone else without going into a comatose. Saudi Arabia is not going to completely destroy itself to spite Iran and Putin.
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Feb 16, 2016 16:04
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Cat Mattress posted:You only have to ask yourself if Gaddafi's dream had a realistic chance of happening at all even without Western involvement. He had more sway than you might think. I recall him being very tight with South Africa. I agree his proposed union was likely of no consequence, but the man had a surprising number of friends for being such a fruitcake. 
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Feb 16, 2016 16:09
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