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DeathSandwich
Apr 24, 2008

I fucking hate puzzles.

CannonFodder posted:

Everyone looks to the feces and explosives, but miss the gem of additional equipment needed to safely deal with the trenches. Of course they were not properly reinforced. Get ready for some OSHA penalties tacked on!

Unrelated, but human poop is considered a biohazard and if it's there in large enough quantities and not in an easily buried latrine then you need to get special equipment out there (even if it's as simple as these are the shovels to be used for poop and nothing else). 'Safely dealt with' in this instance means minimizing risk of pathogen transfer.

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prefect
Sep 11, 2001

No one, Woodhouse.
No one.




Dead Man’s Band

OAquinas posted:

Basically this. The FBI was absolutely amazing at capitalizing on the terrorists' mistakes, but had they decided to start enforcing their "hung by the neck until dead" faux court orders or decided to go out swinging the bodycount would have been a lot worse before the situation could be contained.
None of us knows (:tinfoil:) what the overall strategy was or what assets were in place (if any), but from an outsider perspective they were playing it dangerously fast and loose the first few weeks.

If the Bundy gang had actually started any violence, I bet public opinion would turn strongly against them, and there would not be much complaining when the FBI brought the hammer down.

Mirthless
Mar 27, 2011

by the sex ghost

prefect posted:

It's pretty simple. "Eventually they're going to do something good and stupid, and that's when we'll grab 'em."

Yeah, they did plenty of good and stupid things over the last year and they never got nabbed. Ammon and Ryan were both reported as threatening public employees multiple times and Cliven was established as the ring leader. They could have thrown all three of these men behind bars last year. They're going to spend a lot more time in prison now, but at a significant expense to the public and significant risk to the safety of people in and around Harney county during the standoff, so I don't really think it's appropriate to pat the feds on the back for this. They did a great job in the actual arrests, negotiation, etc, and the case they have seems pretty ironclad, so much respect for that, but it really is a miracle that only one person died in this incident.

SocketWrench
Jul 8, 2012

by Fritz the Horse

theflyingorc posted:

To actually play Devils Advocate a bit - the trench was dug after almost everyone else had left, and was dug by a handful of dummies who weren't really involved in the leadership of the group.

I doubt Ammon was taking good care of the Reserve, but the idiots with the poop trench are a few steps removed from the people talking about caretaking.

Not to get messy over this, but how do you know? They were clearing poo poo out with the dozer while Ammon was still around. There was plenty of it in the backgrounds of the incriminating evidence streams

Alkydere posted:

I'm still amused that they somehow managed to fill up said trench to a noticeable degree between the four of them.

Though to counteract your point: the idiots did use BLM equipment to pave a short stretch of road in an area to make a convenient shortcut while Bundy and Co. were still there. They just said "Yeah, we're driving through this spot a lot and there's no road or trail here...oh, hey, we've got what we need to throw asphalt on the ground right here in this motorpool!" with no forethought or anything. So no, Ammon wasn't taking good care of the reserve at all. Ammon just realized that a poop-trench would make them even more of a laughing stock than they already were so they just decided to over-stress the septic system instead. :v:

Dem gummi bears, man

SocketWrench fucked around with this message at 18:32 on Feb 17, 2016

Levitate
Sep 30, 2005

randy newman voice

YOU'VE GOT A LAFRENIÈRE IN ME

McNerd posted:

Finally, all the above is about what's happened since the 2014 standoff. What about the fact he has been illegally making GBS threads all over Nevada since *1993*, and in defiance of a court order since *1998*? Why couldn't we have had the same standoff in 1999 and Bundy's trial in 2001?

I'm guessing because the BLM and such aren't well funded and no locals wanted to go out and try to serve him papers/arrest him because he threatened to shoot them. It took his fines accumulating to $1 mill before the major feds really got involved and ratcheted things up.

I don't think the BLM or Forest Service usually have much support for dealing with stuff like this until it becomes A Big Deal.

OAquinas
Jan 27, 2008

Biden has sat immobile on the Iron Throne of America. He is the Master of Malarkey by the will of the gods, and master of a million votes by the might of his inexhaustible calamari.

prefect posted:

If the Bundy gang had actually started any violence, I bet public opinion would turn strongly against them, and there would not be much complaining when the FBI brought the hammer down.

Overall public? Sure. Their sovcit brethren? Maybe not. (more likely: immediate claims of false flag so they don't have to get off their disability-collecting asses)
These guys are self-deluding into thinking they're the tip of the spear for CWII or the great reclamation of government or the pale horse or some poo poo. As long as they cloaked their actions in their magic terms they could see themselves as the heroes, right until the bearcats drive up.

And their victims would be just as dead, regardless.

World War Mammories
Aug 25, 2006


The memo about detaining Bundy is full of goddamn gold. The little cherry on top is at the very end, when there's a certification that the memo has been emailed to Bundy's lawyer - who uses a goddamn aol.com email address. What, Hotmail sounded too gay?

Bates
Jun 15, 2006

Jarmak posted:

You could just read the countless posts in this thread predicting that was exactly what was going to happen.

I don't think anyone predicted it would go down the way it did. A lot of posters said they would run out of food and go home on their own accord and roadblocks could potentially kick off another Waco. They didn't run out of food and they didn't leave - until the leadership was arrested in a roadblock.

Kazak_Hstan
Apr 28, 2014

Grimey Drawer
http://www.scribd.com/doc/299340920/ARMED-MARCHERS-WILL-MEET-IN-FRONT-OF-THE-U-S-DISTRICT-COURT-TUCSON-ARIZONA

I'm not sure what the armory park riot in 2006 was, it looks like some immigration protest where some rear end in a top hat showed up and burned a mexican flag, and some people got arrested for scuffling.

Crabtree
Oct 17, 2012

ARRRGH! Get that wallet out!
Everybody: Lowtax in a Pickle!
Pickle! Pickle! Pickle! Pickle!

Dinosaur Gum

A Winner is Jew posted:

I said it earlier in the thread, but the next time a bunch of these assholes get the bright idea that they can simply take over federal land it should be 100% legal for any local tribe to "reclaim" that land by any means necessary.

Enough first tribes people have been maimed or killed by crazed whites for a few centuries. I'd rather that stricter laws against SovCits in general be passed if they keep playing with fire and piss off the US city by city, park takeover by park takeover. Hell, if this happens again in the immediate future there's probably a chance the local police will give them the violence they crave before the FBI even get involved.

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

Alkydere posted:

I have only one complaint about this paragraph: Cliven and his family have proven that there is nothing you can do to save the complete idiots. The government and justice system does try (...provided said idiot is white of course, the last thing I'd try to argue is that our justice system isn't racist as hell) but they can only really save mostly idiots, complete idiots are just beyond hope.

Sure, but they at least try first. If you owe money to the government, you will eventually be forced to pay it - but only after years of ignoring increasingly scary reminders, notices, and warnings.

chitoryu12 posted:

On top of what Main Paineframe said, I should emphasize that I still think that the apparent submission of the federal government at Bundy Ranch may have been a direct cause for the Malheur occupation, even if I understand why the feds didn't want to turn it into another Waco. By essentially surrendering, backing off, and letting Bundy keep openly breaking the law to avoid a fight, they accidentally sent a message to right-wing militia types: "The federal government is weak! As long as you get a couple hundred guys with guns to intimidate them, they won't even try to touch you!" So of course, Ammon Bundy and Ryan Payne (the two ringleaders of the incident who performed the initial planning and asked Sheriff Ward for their protest permission to provide cover for the occupation) were looking for a new cause to take up and they came across the Hammonds being ordered back into prison. Standing their ground with AR-15s and Tapco'd up SKS's and WASRs worked back in 2014. Who's to say it wouldn't work a second time?


The problem with this reasoning is that minor occupations like this happened plenty of times even before the Bundy standoff. Many of the occupiers had previously been in other occupations, and one of them was such a prolific offender that he was scooped up for violating the "stop participating in illegal occupations of federal land" requirement in the probation he was on.

chitoryu12 posted:

The point I'm trying to make is that even though the FBI's long con worked, there were a lot of points where it could have gone wrong. The smashing success they made in ending the occupation nearly bloodlessly and capturing Cliven Bundy was reliant on all the important figures repeatedly making stupid and cowardly decisions: getting cocky and leaving the refuge in big groups outside of populated areas, leaving the refuge individually back to their own homes where they could be found and picked up within 24 hours, freaking out and giving up instead of sitting down and preparing for war, etc. If the militia didn't act as predicted, it could have created a lot of martyrs.

Betting on these idiots making stupid and cocky decisions was a pretty good bet, especially considering the FBI's extensive experience with these movements. You might as well ask "what if the professional negotiator failed to negotiate them down". But even if those bets didn't work out, the FBI wasn't any worse off. What if the occupiers didn't leave the refuge? Then the FBI would just keep waiting. What if they armed up instead of giving up? Then the FBI would just keep waiting. If Cliven stayed in his ranch, then the FBI would just keep waiting.

The thing about dealing with the federal government is that it's not difficult to avoid consequences for a short while, and if you're determined enough you can avoid them for a long while. But avoiding the consequences for the entire rest of your life gets pretty drat hard! No matter how tough or scary you are, everyone has to sleep, get sick, or otherwise let their guard down eventually.

ToastyPotato
Jun 23, 2005

CONVICTED OF DISPLAYING HIS PEANUTS IN PUBLIC

Anosmoman posted:

I don't think anyone predicted it would go down the way it did. A lot of posters said they would run out of food and go home on their own accord and roadblocks could potentially kick off another Waco. They didn't run out of food and they didn't leave - until the leadership was arrested in a roadblock.

Around page 19 of the thread is where the narrative of "any direct action taken against them would put FBI lives at risk" starts, I haven't gotten much further in skimming through the thread because I keep having to afk.

E-Tank
Aug 4, 2011

Mirthless posted:

There is a difference between armchair projections and actual reality. There is a lot of ways this could have gone very wrong, right up to the very last minute of this. What if one of the guys threatening BLM employees had decided to take it a step further?

The instant they went hostile or did something violent, they'd have been raised up another level from 'Crazy assholes we're trying not to murder' to 'terrorists' and basically everything would have come down upon them at once. All the power was there and ready to do it if they hurt someone, but until they try and do that (And I'd be willing to bet since they had people in their camp from day 1 they'd have known about any attempts and would have stopped them before it happened) they're not hurting anyone. No need to kill anyone until lives are actually in danger. Is it a really lovely thing that a bunch of people were scared of them? Yeah. It is. Is it worth gunning them down on sight? Not really.

Remember, at least 3 MRAPs were there and ready to go on a second's notice. All the agents were ready to go, but until there's actually a life in danger they're better served by letting them hang themselves out to dry until they see an opening to take them down without putting a lot of people in danger.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS
I’ll give the FBI the benefit of the doubt because they have experience at these sorts of things and I do not, but I don’t think that “Bundy Ranch 2: Electric Boogaloo had a happy ending” is a strong argument that the FBI’s course of action is beyond reproach.

History is full of bad decisions that people got away with.

Mirthless
Mar 27, 2011

by the sex ghost

E-Tank posted:

The instant they went hostile or did something violent, they'd have been raised up another level from 'Crazy assholes we're trying not to murder' to 'terrorists' and basically everything would have come down upon them at once. All the power was there and ready to do it if they hurt someone, but until they try and do that (And I'd be willing to bet since they had people in their camp from day 1 they'd have known about any attempts and would have stopped them before it happened) they're not hurting anyone. No need to kill anyone until lives are actually in danger. Is it a really lovely thing that a bunch of people were scared of them? Yeah. It is. Is it worth gunning them down on sight? Not really.

Remember, at least 3 MRAPs were there and ready to go on a second's notice. All the agents were ready to go, but until there's actually a life in danger they're better served by letting them hang themselves out to dry until they see an opening to take them down without putting a lot of people in danger.

You realize they were threatening violence against BLM employees within the first week of showing up, right? Like, going to their homes at 3 in the morning, following them around town, threatening them in public places, etc. They were already hostile before the FBI even showed up at the location. Lives actually WERE in danger. In one case in particular a female BLM employee was confronted directly and had people surveilling her home for days afterward. If she'd been killed or raped by these thugs would you have had the same opinion? Sure, it didn't happen, but your viewpoint seems to be that it couldn't have happened which seems more than a little naive to me

edit: Also you seem to think the FBI had surrounded the camp or something prior to Ammon's arrest but they were freely coming and going from the preserve for almost the entire occupation. There's a reason Ammon and Ryan felt comfortable enough to leave the refuge with all their leadership on hand in the first place - they were utterly convinced that the FBI would do nothing to stop them. Because they hadn't, up to that point. Like, hey, great job lulling them into a false sense of security guys, good thing they didn't take the opportunity to exploit that huge window you were giving them by murdering some locals who disagreed with them. They'd certainly threatened to do so.

Mirthless fucked around with this message at 18:53 on Feb 17, 2016

SocketWrench
Jul 8, 2012

by Fritz the Horse

ToastyPotato posted:

That is why communication skills are important though. Depending on how one words their statements, it can sound like they are sympathetic or empathetic, as opposed to simply having knowledge of the situation. Saying "I understand why the KKK feels the way they do about black people", especially in plain text, is going to have a very bad implication. Which is why a more knowledgeable and aware person would say, "I understand the history behind the KKK's beliefs", or at least "I know why the KKK feels the way they do", since they are distancing themselves with language from those beliefs.

In English, at least in America, simply saying "I understand" as a response to someone who is airing a grievance is usually meant as a (somewhat shallow) show of support. So when discussing subjects that involve heinous beliefs and acts, you really have to be careful of phrasing and context. Spending the few extra seconds to explain how and what they understand can go a long way to prevent miscommunication

I could understand that, but what was written was;

quote:

Oh man, I can't find it now and I'm in D&D and all, but I'm sure I remember something about Bundy beliefs in natural property rights having three components:
Occupy - Use - Defend

Following from that it would make sense

And then speculation about how that system works
Then it suddenly becomes "Devil's advocate you think it's justified to take native lands away?!"

pillsburysoldier
Feb 11, 2008

Yo, peep that shit

Kazak_Hstan posted:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/299340920/ARMED-MARCHERS-WILL-MEET-IN-FRONT-OF-THE-U-S-DISTRICT-COURT-TUCSON-ARIZONA

I'm not sure what the armory park riot in 2006 was, it looks like some immigration protest where some rear end in a top hat showed up and burned a mexican flag, and some people got arrested for scuffling.

Inside the wall for their facebook link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=251HwQraYy8

Published on Feb 8, 2016
Jordan Page and Myself attended the funeral of LaVoy Finicum to pay our respects and express our deepest condolences to the Finicum family. Jordan was asked to perform a memorial concert after the funeral for the family and attendees of the service. There were about 500 people that attended the concert. All proceeds raised were given to the family.

And just under that: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HODGXw0AZX4

ToastyPotato
Jun 23, 2005

CONVICTED OF DISPLAYING HIS PEANUTS IN PUBLIC

SocketWrench posted:

I could understand that, but what was written was;


And then speculation about how that system works
Then it suddenly becomes "Devil's advocate you think it's justified to take native lands away?!"

Oh I wasn't referencing a specific post in this thread, outside of expanding on FAUXTON's comment about understanding and sympathy. It's a common issue in these forums in general, imo.

ashpanash
Apr 9, 2008

I can see when you are lying.

The FBI is not some sort of prognosticating supercomputer - it's made up of people. People who study these types of events and come up with strategies. The Bundy cult was made up of people too, people who didn't (and likely didn't have the resources to) think things through like the FBI could.

That said, here's what I think likely happened:

The FBI and Fed. government in general is caught off guard by the situation. There is a requisite panic time, a couple days, where no one knows who is in charge or who to report to, and confusion and likely some finger-pointing reigns. Eventually a task force/committee is formed and lines of communication and hierarchies are established. The FBI proceeds to prepare for multiple scenarios and devise an overall game plan, working with local law enforcement and monitoring the multiple informational channels that the cult is spewing out like a firehose.

Eventually the FBI builds a reliable plan of attack and executes. A side scenario with the four remaining chucklefucks begins, and the FBI is in a much better operational state to contain and de-escalate the situation over time.

Counter-terrorists win.

Facebook Aunt
Oct 4, 2008

wiggle wiggle




Lotka Volterra posted:

Well and "productive" is a loaded word that has no real, objective meaning.

Oh yeah, it's absolutely a weasel word you use to try to get your own way.

Mirthless
Mar 27, 2011

by the sex ghost

ashpanash posted:

The FBI is not some sort of prognosticating supercomputer - it's made up of people. People who study these types of events and come up with strategies. The Bundy cult was made up of people too, people who didn't (and likely didn't have the resources to) think things through like the FBI could.

That said, here's what I think likely happened:

The FBI and Fed. government in general is caught off guard by the situation.


Your summary of events are great but my point is bolded above

This should never have happened in the first place. If the bundies would have been busted in the months after the initial standoff this wouldn't have gotten to this point. Most of us assumed Cliven was going to be free for only a few more months, he was on national TV calling for violence against federal agents. They let a full year pass before they did anything about it at all. People's lives were severely disrupted. Some people were threatened by strangers from another state in their own homes. People could have died at pretty much any time, from the start of the occupation up until it's last few minutes. We shouldn't let the eventual success of the FBI give them a free pass for their inaction, it certainly doesn't make the lopsided nature of attacks and infiltrations of leftist protest groups any less egregious.

prefect
Sep 11, 2001

No one, Woodhouse.
No one.




Dead Man’s Band

Mirthless posted:

Yeah, they did plenty of good and stupid things over the last year and they never got nabbed. Ammon and Ryan were both reported as threatening public employees multiple times and Cliven was established as the ring leader. They could have thrown all three of these men behind bars last year. They're going to spend a lot more time in prison now, but at a significant expense to the public and significant risk to the safety of people in and around Harney county during the standoff, so I don't really think it's appropriate to pat the feds on the back for this. They did a great job in the actual arrests, negotiation, etc, and the case they have seems pretty ironclad, so much respect for that, but it really is a miracle that only one person died in this incident.

I read that Cliven has always been surrounded by bodyguards, so they couldn't have picked him up without risking idiots shooting off.

Jarmak
Jan 24, 2005

Anosmoman posted:

I don't think anyone predicted it would go down the way it did. A lot of posters said they would run out of food and go home on their own accord and roadblocks could potentially kick off another Waco. They didn't run out of food and they didn't leave - until the leadership was arrested in a roadblock.

The general consensus was to grab them when they left the compound, commonly cited reasons for leaving would be either they ran out of supplies, fell apart to infighting, or got bored by lack of response. "But but you didn't guess the reason they eventually left and made themselves vulnerable!" is a loving stupid pedantic argument, the point was to wait them out and grab them when they left.

Also the roadblock was specifically to execute the arrest, it is not the same thing people were arguing about (besieging the compound with roadblocks)

Alter Ego posted:

Pretty much. There's a deep, dark part of me that would enjoy watching these hillbilly assholes get pepper-sprayed, tazed, and marched off in cuffs, but I'm also emotionally mature enough to know that that is not the reasonable or proportional thing to do. Starve/freeze them out and they'll leave--without the conservative martyrdom they want so badly. Stories of infighting and dissension in the ranks are already spreading like wildfire, and they don't look like the revolutionary heroes they thought they would--they look like complete loving idiots, even to a lot of the people they'd hoped to convert to their cause.

Reminds me of that West Wing episode near the start of the series where Bartlet wants to carpet-bomb Syria because terrorists shot down a transport plane, and the staff spends the whole episode talking him off the ledge.

theflyingorc posted:

it's really not hard to understand

1 don't do things that might make the situation escalate

2 punish them once they're not holed up somewhere

we can be upset if 2 never happens

Kazak_Hstan
Apr 28, 2014

Grimey Drawer
https://twitter.com/Patztense/status/700002344235302912

There is so much empty bluster from these people, but who knows. At some point someone is going to make good on a threat.

ashpanash
Apr 9, 2008

I can see when you are lying.

Mirthless posted:

They let a full year pass before they did anything about it at all.

I'm assuming - and I'm not saying I'm right here, it's just an assumption - that the government did not take action for a while because they were concerned about people getting hurt. Primarily their own agents, yes, but also hoping not to exacerbate a situation that had potential to fly out of control if they took a seriously wrong action. I mean, Waco et. al. led to a lot of horrible consequences down the line that we are still dealing with now.

That said, I'm actually kind of glad that the government wasn't really prepared for something like this to happen. I would rather the government not think, and prepare for, the worst of its citizens.

univbee
Jun 3, 2004




I also wonder if arresting them too early in the story would have made significant jail time more difficult.

OAquinas
Jan 27, 2008

Biden has sat immobile on the Iron Throne of America. He is the Master of Malarkey by the will of the gods, and master of a million votes by the might of his inexhaustible calamari.

ashpanash posted:


That said, I'm actually kind of glad that the government wasn't really prepared for something like this to happen. I would rather the government not think, and prepare for, the worst of its citizens.

Lose me there. Average citizens randomly showing up to occupy and trash a bird refuge in the name of some firebug ranchers arrested to serve a mandatory minimum? Yeah, that's pretty off the wall and no one thinks there should be any contingency planned.

But to have the Bundys, who instigated a tense, armed standoff with the fedgov and who like to play "free man on the land sheriff"? For them not to be closely surveilled is just asking for a repeat performance.

McNerd
Aug 28, 2007

OAquinas posted:

But to have the Bundys, who instigated a tense, armed standoff with the fedgov and who like to play "free man on the land sheriff"? For them not to be closely surveilled is just asking for a repeat performance.
Can you elaborate on "closely surveilled"? The dude has armed guards, I would not want to be in the car tailing him.

theflyingorc
Jun 28, 2008

ANY GOOD OPINIONS THIS POSTER CLAIMS TO HAVE ARE JUST PROOF THAT BULLYING WORKS
Young Orc

OAquinas posted:

Basically this. The FBI was absolutely amazing at capitalizing on the terrorists' mistakes, but had they decided to start enforcing their "hung by the neck until dead" faux court orders or decided to go out swinging the bodycount would have been a lot worse before the situation could be contained.
They provided extra protection for the targets and stuff, FYI. The town was (roughly) safe, because the one thing the FBI was doing was protecting the town. The people in Burns were probably safer AFTER the refuge was taken over than before it, because the harassment campaign had been going on for months beforehand with minimal federal protection.

Anosmoman posted:

I don't think anyone predicted it would go down the way it did. A lot of posters said they would run out of food and go home on their own accord and roadblocks could potentially kick off another Waco. They didn't run out of food and they didn't leave - until the leadership was arrested in a roadblock.
That's not what anyone ever meant by roadblock. We discussed siege tactics, not a purposefully nab of the leaders.

theflyingorc fucked around with this message at 20:04 on Feb 17, 2016

many johnnys
May 17, 2015

McNerd posted:

Can you elaborate on "closely surveilled"? The dude has armed guards, I would not want to be in the car tailing him.
I'll say. Quoting the motion to deny bail:
Check out page 13 for the militia tailing and even detaining passers-by, all the way back to 2014.

quote:

On April 26, 2014, Bundy’s son, Ryan Bundy, and Ryan Payne, both currently detained and pending charges for their role in the MNWR occupation and other members of the armed patrols, physically stopped a truck driving through Mesquite hauling a livestock trailer. Ryan Bundy demanded to see the written documents reflecting the ownership of the cattle in the trailer. The driver of the truck complied with Ryan Bundy’s demands and after determining the cattle were not from among Bundy’s feral herd, Ryan allowed the driver to continue on. The driver left the area and called police.

Leading to this on page 15:

quote:

On June 5, 2015, three civilians working on behalf of the BLM traveled to the Gold Butte region for an overnight assignment involving site surveys, which included surveying cattle troughs and other cattle-related sites. At the final site a truck came up the road at around 6:30 p.m. and parked behind the civilians’ truck, blocking them in. One female employee approached the truck and observed a man who appeared to be 50-65 and who was subsequently identified by her as Cliven Bundy, and a younger man (18-25), subsequently identified by her as Arden Bundy, in the truck. Bundy said to her in a joking manner that they had been chasing these BLM employees all day. He asked why they were there and she said they were there to camp. Bundy said they were welcome to stay and that he was there to fix a leaky pipe and then feed the cattle.

At approximately 9:00 pm that night, the employees heard a vehicle coming up the road and stop approximately 500 meters from their camp. Three gunshots or popping noises were fired in fairly rapid succession. The vehicle then drove away. At approximately 10:00 pm, a vehicle came to the same spot and again three gunshots were fired in rapid succession, which one employee understood is sometimes meant to signal danger. The employees also heard several male voices but could not make out what was being said. They could see headlights in the direction of their camp. After a few minutes, the vehicle drove away. The employees immediately packed up their camp and left Gold Butte, returning to Las Vegas after 1:30 in the morning.

SocketWrench
Jul 8, 2012

by Fritz the Horse
Well, here we go, back to the old damned no matter what. No one's happy unless their fantasy had prevailed.

Personally I believe the feds didn't move on the Bundys the first time because they had a shitload of armed people actively standing them off. It doesn't take a genius to figure out someone would get shot. So wait till the appropriate time to move.

This whole Oregon thing just happened to be coincidence and the feds decided not to repeat the Bundy ranch thing since the Bundys were obviously capable of getting a lot of armed support together. Instead they waited, gathered equipment, got their legal poo poo together, laughed at the the stupidity of the occupation, then moved when the chance presented itself. Till that point the primary task was to keep poo poo from escalating into an actual standoff

Wistful of Dollars
Aug 25, 2009

SocketWrench posted:

Well, here we go, back to the old damned no matter what. No one's happy unless their fantasy had prevailed.

Personally I believe the feds didn't move on the Bundys the first time because they had a shitload of armed people actively standing them off. It doesn't take a genius to figure out someone would get shot. So wait till the appropriate time to move.

This whole Oregon thing just happened to be coincidence and the feds decided not to repeat the Bundy ranch thing since the Bundys were obviously capable of getting a lot of armed support together. Instead they waited, gathered equipment, got their legal poo poo together, laughed at the the stupidity of the occupation, then moved when the chance presented itself. Till that point the primary task was to keep poo poo from escalating into an actual standoff

Seems about right to me.

theflyingorc
Jun 28, 2008

ANY GOOD OPINIONS THIS POSTER CLAIMS TO HAVE ARE JUST PROOF THAT BULLYING WORKS
Young Orc

SocketWrench posted:

Well, here we go, back to the old damned no matter what. No one's happy unless their fantasy had prevailed.

Personally I believe the feds didn't move on the Bundys the first time because they had a shitload of armed people actively standing them off. It doesn't take a genius to figure out someone would get shot. So wait till the appropriate time to move.

This whole Oregon thing just happened to be coincidence and the feds decided not to repeat the Bundy ranch thing since the Bundys were obviously capable of getting a lot of armed support together. Instead they waited, gathered equipment, got their legal poo poo together, laughed at the the stupidity of the occupation, then moved when the chance presented itself. Till that point the primary task was to keep poo poo from escalating into an actual standoff

And again, the other major difference is that the first time it was BLM, the second time it was the FBI. The BLM is, I'm guessing, pretty lacking in resources to deal with a siege.

Dr. Fraiser Chain
May 18, 2004

Redlining my shit posting machine


Look guys, someone gets shot to take Bundy in 2014 unless the FBI shoots first, in which case Waco. You can't just have an agent walk up and put cuffs on Bundy and not expect shots to be fired, and those agents to be probably killed. Who are you going to ask to march up there and put cuffs on that guy with his militia?

Now you certainly can do it buy rolling these guys like you would in a modern military campaign but people won't stand for that.

They exist, as lovely as it is, in a space where you can't arrest them unless you come in shooting first. You won't get public support for that unless they escalate from threats to rape and murder.

kartikeya
Mar 17, 2009


Jarmak posted:

The general consensus was to grab them when they left the compound, commonly cited reasons for leaving would be either they ran out of supplies, fell apart to infighting, or got bored by lack of response. "But but you didn't guess the reason they eventually left and made themselves vulnerable!" is a loving stupid pedantic argument, the point was to wait them out and grab them when they left.

Also the roadblock was specifically to execute the arrest, it is not the same thing people were arguing about (besieging the compound with roadblocks)


Exc...ept they did exactly that hours after nabbing the leaders. They blocked off all the roads leading out of the refuge. Hell, they even cut the power. And they held that for two weeks or so. Now, I get that by that time they had a whole bunch of resources to do so (you can't just suddenly block off the refuge the day it starts because Burns doesn't have a bunch of armored vehicles just sititng around) and the number of people contained were significantly lower, but people were claiming it was impossible, and you're implying it didn't happen. :psyduck:

It's worth mentioning they left the compound previously, multiple times. All of them. Just not all at once, as far as I know. Most of the leadership took a trip down to Utah, for gently caress's sake, although they mention being paranoid at the time.

I don't think it's unreasonable for people to wonder or ask if things couldn't have been done better, or to point out there were a lot of points at which things could have gone very wrong if things outside of the FBI's control (IE, the occupiers behavior) went in a different way. I'm fairly certain the FBI is doing their own internal analyses for the same reasons; this ended well, how can we do this better, more efficiently, and more safely next time?

And I'm the sad idiot who has actually read every page of this ridiculous thread. No one predicted this outcome, not people for action or against action. In fact, when we learned about the Utah trip, there were a number of us going 'why the hell didn't they pick them up then?' and generally most of the people advocating for patience or waiting argued against the FBI doing anything in that situation either. What the FBI did was wait (either deliberately or just being opportunistic) until the Bundy Bunch were overconfident enough in their invulnerability that they were taking actions to spread their cause outside of Burns and Malheur, and pretty much all the leadership decided to take a road trip without a convoy (which as far as I know they didn't do for Utah either, but not everyone went then), and then they took very immediate and forceful action. Followed by more forceful action against those at the refuge. People in this thread were mostly arguing for either a siege (although this kept being misconstrued as a raid) or for just waiting for it to end on its own.

The one thing that was predicted correctly was that they would, in fact, nail Cliven Bundy for his 2014 hijinks. I am terribly pleased to have been entirely mistaken on that count.

Rodenthar Drothman
May 14, 2013

I think I will continue
watching this twilight world
as long as time flows.

prefect posted:

It's pretty simple. "Eventually they're going to do something good and stupid, and that's when we'll grab 'em."

This.

If anyone here has read the Art of War, the *textbook* thing to do is to sit there and wait for them to screw up.

I don't have any law enforcement experience, but I do have experience in managing the logistics of complicated projects. When you don't know when or if something is going to happen, all you can do is prepare as best you can and wait for something to happen. If you have prepared properly, then you will be able to respond appropriately. It seems to me this is what happened, and maybe Cliven coming up was just the surprise icing on the cake.

I do think it is worthwhile to confront the confirmation bias we've been seeing ITT. Back when people were actually crying about confirmation bias a week or two ago, I didn't really see it. But now I have been really seeing it (and hell, maybe even participating)

Geostomp
Oct 22, 2008

Unite: MASH!!
~They've got the bad guys on the run!~

Angela Christine posted:

Oh man, I can't find it now and I'm in D&D and all, but I'm sure I remember something about Bundy beliefs in natural property rights having three components:
Occupy - Use - Defend

Following from that it would make sense that the natives lost their claims, because they failed to Defend their property. (Their claim would have been weak against white settlers anyway, since farming is a more productive use of land than subsistence hunting.)

It also makes the ranch standoff sensible. If Bundy puts the land to productive use ranching cattle and also defends it, and the government fails to use it or defend it, then it becomes Bundy's personal property by right. Cattle is a higher or more productive use of the land than using it as tortoise habitat. Eventually they could claim ownership of all the federal wild lands like the wildlife refuge just by occupying it, using it for something (a campground) and then defending it. If the federal government doesn't defend their land, they lose ownership of it to someone who can.

So basically the reasoning you'd expect from a greedy bully: if you find it, take it and shoot anyone who questions you to prove your worthiness.

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

OAquinas posted:

Basically this. The FBI was absolutely amazing at capitalizing on the terrorists' mistakes, but had they decided to start enforcing their "hung by the neck until dead" faux court orders or decided to go out swinging the bodycount would have been a lot worse before the situation could be contained.

If they decided to go out swinging...then they would have perished in a doomed suicide charge against federal positions. How is "waiting for a while, then sitting in nice safe fortified positions defending themselves against an attack from the militants" worse than "going in and shooting all the militants"?

Mirthless posted:

You realize they were threatening violence against BLM employees within the first week of showing up, right? Like, going to their homes at 3 in the morning, following them around town, threatening them in public places, etc. They were already hostile before the FBI even showed up at the location. Lives actually WERE in danger. In one case in particular a female BLM employee was confronted directly and had people surveilling her home for days afterward. If she'd been killed or raped by these thugs would you have had the same opinion? Sure, it didn't happen, but your viewpoint seems to be that it couldn't have happened which seems more than a little naive to me

edit: Also you seem to think the FBI had surrounded the camp or something prior to Ammon's arrest but they were freely coming and going from the preserve for almost the entire occupation. There's a reason Ammon and Ryan felt comfortable enough to leave the refuge with all their leadership on hand in the first place - they were utterly convinced that the FBI would do nothing to stop them. Because they hadn't, up to that point. Like, hey, great job lulling them into a false sense of security guys, good thing they didn't take the opportunity to exploit that huge window you were giving them by murdering some locals who disagreed with them. They'd certainly threatened to do so.

They were allowed to run free in the town precisely because, per their ideology and rhetoric, they had no intention of murdering random civilians or even random government employees. I realize that some people are ideologically opposed to the idea that there could be any sort of nuance in right-wing beliefs, but despite their big talk, the occupiers were clearly harmless if not disturbed (and I've been saying so since the beginning). They were also apparently being monitored during their trips into town, given that a couple of them were picked up by the cops for various reasons.

The real threat, and a far more difficult one for the FBI, was always the right-wing crazies who went to Burns but didn't join the occupation. All the people who went out to camp out, dress up, and roleplay a military occupation were known quantities who were easy to keep track of; the big danger was always the guys sitting in hotel rooms in Burns painstakingly monitoring Pete's footage and waiting for an excuse to roleplay "sleeper agent committing terrorism in support of the poor helpless martyrs slaughtered by the bad guys". Were there any of those? Probably! How many? Hard to say, since by their very nature they're much harder to find and keep track of than the people shouting threats and propaganda at every camera they see. And while it's correct that any action - including no action at all - could potentially lead to setting that off, look at how this ended: with Ammon Bundy loudly disavowing all violence and begging the occupiers to go home so the judge would grant him bail, and the last occupier being a suicidal schizophrenic who compared sovcit celebrity figures to imams and surrendered in exchange for the FBI buying him a pizza. That's not exactly the martyrdom they hoped for.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS

Main Paineframe posted:

They were allowed to run free in the town precisely because, per their ideology and rhetoric, they had no intention of murdering random civilians or even random government employees.

Just the sheriff and his wife.

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many johnnys
May 17, 2015

Geostomp posted:

So basically the reasoning you'd expect from a greedy bully: if you find it, take it and shoot anyone who questions you to prove your worthiness.

Might makes right, unless someone mightier tells me what I can't do

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