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Manic_Misanthrope posted:If the GOP and Trump are at such odds, and they're technically a private institution can't they just say "Stuff the primaries. Cruz/Rubio is going to be our pick regardless of what the polls say." That would essentially be throwing the election. Yes they could do it but the fallout would be catastrophic for their chances in November even if Trump didn't run 3rd party (which he would) quote:What don't you think they agree with? Racism? Xenophobia? Acting tough? Vague plans to make things better? I wouldn't feel comfortable saying that a majority of Americans couldn't end up agreeing with all of that. And that's even assuming that the economy doesn't worsen, or that there are no more terror attacks between now and November. Personally I'm not basing that on any scientific or statistical model, I'm basing it on the fact that all the Americans I know are good people to whom Trump remains a punchline. And yeah I guess that's basically just faith.
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Feb 26, 2016 22:22
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Even if Trump didn't run I suspect a ton of voters would be turned off by how outrageously shady that is (especially if they planned on voting Trump) and just stay home. Then when the establishment pick loses it would further display their irrelevancy on the national stage.
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Feb 26, 2016 22:24
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Manic_Misanthrope posted:If the GOP and Trump are at such odds, and they're technically a private institution can't they just say "Stuff the primaries. Cruz/Rubio is going to be our pick regardless of what the polls say." They absolutely can, but it would destroy them.
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Feb 26, 2016 22:25
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The sad truth is, it feels good to be told "It's going to be OK. I'm going to make everyone respect you again." It feels good to not have to feel ashamed for being a little racist, or a little xenophobic. It feels good when someone rich and famous tells you that he's going to make it all better, that it's all Their Fault, not yours. That They're the ones who are The Real Racists. That everything really was better back when you were a kid. And we're gonna be "Great" like that again. "No more" people laughing about you getting upset over Starbucks changing. "No more" Muslims being scary around the country. "No more" family members rolling their eyes at you for your concerns about the Gays and why they need to get married. Why? Because The Donald promised to make it all better again.
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Feb 26, 2016 22:26
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Fojar38 posted:
Well, you know how Iran keeps calling America the Great Satan? Maybe we're the bad guy here
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Feb 26, 2016 22:26
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Manic_Misanthrope posted:If the GOP and Trump are at such odds, and they're technically a private institution can't they just say "Stuff the primaries. Cruz/Rubio is going to be our pick regardless of what the polls say." If Trump controls a majority of the GOP delegates, who is the "they" in this scenario?
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Feb 26, 2016 22:27
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Fojar38 posted:That would essentially be throwing the election. Yes they could do it but the fallout would be catastrophic for their chances in November even if Trump didn't run 3rd party (which he would) It'd be catastrophic way past November. The backlash - not just from Trump supporters but the general public - would possibly be enough to destroy the party entirely. You can't pull back the veil like that and they know it.
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Feb 26, 2016 22:27
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Evil Fluffy posted:If I can make a few overwhelmingly blue districts and give myself a (super)majority of red districts with even a +5 vote advantage that's plenty. You then start hitting hard on Voter ID, changing vote times, and a lot of other things and then suddenly your opponents can't get out to vote and state-wide races start tilting more in your favor and you hold the state government as the majority even with a minority of the total vote. I forget which state had that happen recently, NC maybe? The Dems had far more total votes but the GOP ended up with a solid majority of districts because of effective gerrymandering. Yeah, NC for sure among others. More votes for Democratic representatives than Republican ones in 2014, but out of 13 districts we get 9 Republicans and 4 Democrats. Cracking and packing are powerful forces.
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Feb 26, 2016 22:27
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Fojar38 posted:Personally I'm not basing that on any scientific or statistical model, I'm basing it on the fact that all the Americans I know are good people to whom Trump remains a punchline. And yeah I guess that's basically just faith. This is exactly like "nobody I know voted for Obama." It speaks well of you and your friends but doesn't really mean anything else.
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Feb 26, 2016 22:27
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Well, you know how Iran keeps calling America the Great Satan? The joke is that there is no good guy anywhere.
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Feb 26, 2016 22:29
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And yes general election head-to-head polls this early mean little, but they give no indication that Trump is unelectable against either Bernie or Hillary.
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Feb 26, 2016 22:30
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Everblight posted:When do the "very serious people" who casually dismissed a Trump candidacy like Joementum and Fried Chicken issue mea culpas? I stand by my statement that the man is a loving clown that no one should take seriously. I did not rightly estimate how diseased and broken everything else was. I was wrong and Donald Trump now looks to be the republican nominee. Edit: also, lol that I am a "very serious person"; I'm just not funny enough for weird tweeting/posting and try to limit the things I post as they could be tracked back to me Fried Chicken fucked around with this message at 22:49 on Feb 26, 2016 |
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Feb 26, 2016 22:31
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The Republican playbook has been incredibly negative for some time. Obama's destroying America. ISIS presents an existential threat. Our way of life is under siege. If someone buys into such a narrative, it really doesn't matter that it's Trump on the GOP side, because <insert Democrat> will destroy our way of life. This has come pretty much full circle, with the Republican's mounting extremism provoking a facially similar attitude on the left. IMO, the primary difference is the gut-wrenching outrage and fear Republicans promote, designed to smother any reasoned or nuanced examination of the situation. or to put it another way, even while the left was rocking Gush vs Bore the Republicans were coming down down off their Clinton hatred-high.
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Feb 26, 2016 22:33
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Fojar38 posted:
Good ol' praxeology rears its ugly misshapen head.
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Feb 26, 2016 22:34
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SedanChair posted:And yes general election head-to-head polls this early mean little, but they give no indication that Trump is unelectable against either Bernie or Hillary. Both Clinton and Sanders are leading Trump according to RCP polls though? And not by small margins either. I guess it depends on if you think that that gap will widen or narrow once the nominees are in. Not to mention that Trump is apparently going to be the least popular nominee in American history out of the gate. He'd have a lot of ground to cover.
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Feb 26, 2016 22:38
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What I don't get is that after 2012, it was clear that Republicans needed to better appeal to minority groups and women if they wanted to remain competitive in general elections. With Trump, they've made that demographic problem even worse, yet everyone is freaking out over how he's going to be unstoppable. I feel like the "unstoppable" narrative makes way more sense in the Republican primary, given that he's like FWD: FWD: FWD: the candidate, and the rest of the lineup is, frankly, pathetic. It seems like once again, the importance of PoC voters and women is being completely underestimated, and I don't see how Trump could easily swing them by November. I know it's hip to dump on Trump skeptics but the primary is a completely different beast than the general. He's also got a ridiculous unfavorability rating among most Americans. Bullfrog fucked around with this message at 22:43 on Feb 26, 2016 |
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Feb 26, 2016 22:41
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Talmonis posted:Then for the rest of us, pray. Pray that you're right. That when the American people go into the voting booth, alone and unjudged by their peers, that the inner xenophobe and inner racist don't say "Aren't you tired of being ashamed?" For all that we should be truly afraid of Trump getting uncomfortably close to the White House, and of formerly resolute anti-Trump Republicans dropping all pretense of scruples and falling in line behind him, we really haven't seen a true anti-Trump media campaign yet. There have been op-eds and statements and obviously people talk to each other but no real negative attack ads or anything like that. Of the hundreds of millions of dollars that GOP campaigns have thrown around this year something like less than 2% of them have been aimed at Trump. Likewise, the Dems have been only too happy to let the GOP be its ugliest self without any real oppo on their part--that all changes in the general. Until we see what happens when people start putting actual money into directly attacking Trump (before you point to Jeb!, he actually barely spent any of his ample warchest on the Notorious DJT), I'm not prepared to write off the American people as already lost to the Fash'.
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Feb 26, 2016 22:43
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Right, people are forgetting that we have seen this before. GOP nominee needs to hurl truckloads of red meat to get nominated, ends up biting them in the rear end in the general. Unless you think Trump is a literal wizard I think it's too early to discount the likelihood of that happening yet again.
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Feb 26, 2016 22:44
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Bullfrog posted:What I don't get is that after 2012, it was clear that Republicans needed to better appeal to minority groups and women if they wanted to remain competitive in general elections. With Trump, they've made that demographic problem even worse, yet everyone is freaking out over how he's going to be unstoppable. Honestly, I'm just afraid that Trump can get the white vote by such a high margin that it doesn't matter that he alienates everyone else. I think that's plausible. Somewhat less plausible, but still kind of possible I think, is if Trump is able to start engendering himself to various minorities. He's a conman, and if anyone can do a massive turn around like that, he could. Fojar38 posted:Right, people are forgetting that we have seen this before. GOP nominee needs to hurl truckloads of red meat to get nominated, ends up biting them in the rear end in the general. Unless you think Trump is a literal wizard I think it's too early to discount the likelihood of that happening yet again. Can we be sure his supporters aren't wizards? Nichael fucked around with this message at 22:47 on Feb 26, 2016 |
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Feb 26, 2016 22:45
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Electric Bugaloo posted:For all that we should be truly afraid of Trump getting uncomfortably close to the White House, and of formerly resolute anti-Trump Republicans dropping all pretense of scruples and falling in line behind him, we really haven't seen a true anti-Trump media campaign yet. There have been op-eds and statements and obviously people talk to each other but no real negative attack ads or anything like that. One of the highlights of this campaign is definitely going to be seeing the Hillary Clinton gently caress Machine declaring total war on Trump
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Feb 26, 2016 22:45
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Nichael posted:This hasn't been funny since late summer. The "ironic" Trump support isn't funny. He's exposed just how little Americans give a poo poo about what makes this country America. It's terrifying. How is President Ted Cruz or President Marco Rubio not even more terrifying? They both make GWB look like a RINO and Rubio especially has a raging neocon hardon.
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Feb 26, 2016 22:47
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MaxxBot posted:How is President Ted Cruz or President Marco Rubio not even more terrifying? They both make GWB look like a RINO and Rubio especially has a raging neocon hardon. Neither Cruz nor Rubio are going to be the nominees.
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Feb 26, 2016 22:47
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Fojar38 posted:Right, people are forgetting that we have seen this before. GOP nominee needs to hurl truckloads of red meat to get nominated, ends up biting them in the rear end in the general. Unless you think Trump is a literal wizard I think it's too early to discount the likelihood of that happening yet again. I have some bad news for you then. No one expected Trump to make it more than a month. He's now in what, month 6 and with the highest delegate count and ahead in all the polls headed into super tuesday? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vmn9asN-8AE
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Feb 26, 2016 22:48
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Nichael posted:Honestly, I'm just afraid that Trump can get the white vote by such a high margin that it doesn't matter that he alienates everyone else. I think that's plausible. Somewhat less plausible, but still kind of possible I think, is if Trump is able to start engendering himself to various minorities. He's a conman, and if anyone can do a massive turn around like that, he could. Half of the white vote consists of women friend. Unless he somehow manages to convince them, he's not winning the white vote by a high enough margin for that.
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Feb 26, 2016 22:49
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A Winner is Jew posted:I have some bad news for you then. No one expected Trump to make it more than a month. He's now in what, month 6 and with the highest delegate count and ahead in all the polls headed into super tuesday? "Win the GOP primary by saying crazy bullshit to satisfy the rabid right-wing" is First Year Hogwarts at best
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Feb 26, 2016 22:50
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MaxxBot posted:How is President Ted Cruz or President Marco Rubio not even more terrifying? They both make GWB look like a RINO and Rubio especially has a raging neocon hardon. Neither has openly called for the First Amendment to be destroyed (he's going to sue the NYT until they won't print negative articles about him). Neither has prompted quite as much Islamophobia. Neither of them have the broad appeal or charisma of Trump. However, it could be just the devil I know versus the one I don't, and I'm more comfortable with their particular brand of evil for whatever reason. TheGreyGhost posted:Half of the white vote consists of women friend. Unless he somehow manages to convince them, he's not winning the white vote by a high enough margin for that. You're right, but still many women inexplicably vote against their interests and vote Republican. Is it much of a stretch that they'll vote for Trump, the only one of the Republican candidates who dares to say Planned Parenthood isn't all bad? Ultimately, I hope Trump skeptics are right about the general election, but what is the harm in assuming the worst? I certainly think the Democratic party should assume the worst, and operate under the assumption that he's going to do very well. Crush him, or beat him by a small margin, it doesn't matter. Nichael fucked around with this message at 22:54 on Feb 26, 2016 |
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Feb 26, 2016 22:50
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I know polls mean nothing right now but the new Reuters poll has Clinton up 9 points nationally so yeah.
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Feb 26, 2016 22:53
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Governor LePage (Maine) just endorsed Trump Not real surprising, but here it is
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Feb 26, 2016 22:54
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Fried Chicken posted:Pretty sure I already did, but ok: yep. I figured this was going to be a strange primary, but I figured eventually the party was going to reassert itself. But the usual power players have either been broken to pieces or cowered like whipped dogs, and the actual campaigns of the candidates been shockingly incompetent while Trump's has been stunningly on point. We are still a long way from the nominee being crowned but right now all signs point to Trump and at a minimum he's performed well enough to shame every existing model. USPol March: We're Not Funny Enough for Weird Twitter
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Feb 26, 2016 22:54
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Fojar38 posted:Right, people are forgetting that we have seen this before. GOP nominee needs to hurl truckloads of red meat to get nominated, ends up biting them in the rear end in the general. Unless you think Trump is a literal wizard I think it's too early to discount the likelihood of that happening yet again. He's throwing different kinds of meat. Hell just last night he said that Planned Parenthood has "helped millions of women." Some of the stuff he's said might bite him in the rear end, but not for the same reasons that Romney or McCain ran into. Trump is not going to pivot like they did, he's going to do something different. And the people who vote for him will be 100% of the people who can't follow the news and don't believe it anyway, unlike other candidates where they just had some of those people. Trump will have 100% of the stupid people, and they will believe what he is saying right now over what the media says he said a week or a year ago.
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Feb 26, 2016 22:55
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A Winner is Jew posted:I have some bad news for you then. No one expected Trump to make it more than a month. He's now in what, month 6 and with the highest delegate count and ahead in all the polls headed into super tuesday? He's talking about the General, tho? Remember that most of the American electorate voted for Black Satan the last time we had one of these, against a Republican who had managed to charm Massachusetts into letting him be governor, no less.
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Feb 26, 2016 22:55
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Antti posted:This is what the Democrats did in 1968. It did not go well. Could you expand on this? I thought Humphrey was ahead the whole time, but the pre-reform primary system is really strange to me so I'm probably missing something.
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Feb 26, 2016 22:56
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VikingofRock posted:Could you expand on this? I thought Humphrey was ahead the whole time, but the pre-reform primary system is really strange to me so I'm probably missing something. I would recommend everyone in this thread read Fear and Loathing: On the Campaign Trail '72
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Feb 26, 2016 22:58
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"If you killed Ted Cruz on the floor of the Senate, and the trial was in the Senate, no one would convict you." -- Lindsey Graham (R-SC) Holy poo poo.
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Feb 26, 2016 23:00
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haveblue posted:I think Christie may be the first person who has actually irl dehumanized his self and face to bloodshed. He must think he has no future in New Jersey. I'm still shocked he did something as reckless and short sighted as shackling himself to Trump though.
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Feb 26, 2016 23:00
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Electric Bugaloo posted:He's talking about the General, tho? Remember that most of the American electorate voted for Black Satan the last time we had one of these, against a Republican who had managed to charm Massachusetts into letting him be governor, no less. And what I'm saying is that Trump's success has caused everything we've come to believe about what should be happening in politics to be thrown right the gently caress out the window. We're in uncharted territory here.
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Feb 26, 2016 23:02
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VikingofRock posted:Could you expand on this? I thought Humphrey was ahead the whole time, but the pre-reform primary system is really strange to me so I'm probably missing something. Well like you said it's the pre-reform primary system so it doesn't map exactly, but Humphrey had the backing of the party elites while McCarthy had the support of the rank and file. Kennedy and McCarthy won big in primaries and in the popular vote, Humphrey barely campaigned and racked up party delegates instead (what we'd call superdelegates today). Then Kennedy was shot. The convention itself was infamously acrimonious, of course, and the base was firmly anti-war, while Humphrey was the sitting VP and couldn't and wouldn't renounce the war. Mind you, there may not have been any way to square that circle and prevent the party from splintering, but the elites holding their nose and supporting the popular McCarthy would have been more likely than the thing that absolutely didn't happen, the anti-war Democrats supporting the pro-war Humphrey.
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Feb 26, 2016 23:03
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Manic_Misanthrope posted:If the GOP and Trump are at such odds, and they're technically a private institution can't they just say "Stuff the primaries. Cruz/Rubio is going to be our pick regardless of what the polls say." "gently caress you people, we decide" would destroy a party right then and there. Doing that at the convention? I'd be stunned if it didn't result in bloodshed because you'd have some True Believers losing their poo poo.
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Feb 26, 2016 23:04
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Unzip and Attack posted:"If you killed Ted Cruz on the floor of the Senate, and the trial was in the Senate, no one would convict you." -- Lindsey Graham (R-SC) 
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Feb 26, 2016 23:05
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Chuck Todd on MSNBC just now:quote:The man dominating the Republican race is a WWE Hall of Famer. So is Nature Boy Ric Flair, and Marco Rubio apparently finally knows what Ric Flair has always said- If you wanna be the man, you've got to beat the man. Walk that aisle, baby! WOOOOOO! This loving election
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