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The comments were 'convinced' (also, lol comments obv.) that Bernie might squeak it out, especially with oversea votes. I have no idea on the validity of that, of course. But this is also why I sold out at .90!
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Mar 16, 2016 21:17
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I bought at 98 to make a couple bucks. gently caress me right?
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Mar 16, 2016 21:19
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C7ty1 posted:Made I told u all to bet on Garland. I told u!!!
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Mar 16, 2016 21:21
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off of Garland, I'll take it. Grats to those who jumped in bigger.
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 I maxed this out at 94c earlier because I figured it would close tonight. This is the Romney market all over again. 
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Mar 16, 2016 21:22
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http://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/709966779574046722 this rollercoaster won't stop until friday
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Mar 16, 2016 21:31
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Baconomics posted:http://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/709966779574046722 WELP thank god I kept my MO chart up
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Mar 16, 2016 21:31
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Bernie YES MO now trading at 23
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Mar 16, 2016 21:35
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What percentage of absentee ballots are likely to have been counted already?
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Mar 16, 2016 21:38
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Absentee ballots have favored Hillary thus far. Seems risky to be betting on Bernie for these.
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Mar 16, 2016 21:39
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A lot. We specifically don't know the number remaining though, and the difference is - what, 1, 2k votes?
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Mar 16, 2016 21:39
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1,600 I think
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Mar 16, 2016 21:41
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Concerned Citizen posted:Absentee ballots have favored Hillary thus far. Seems risky to be betting on Bernie for these. Bet on him to sell to people Made $7 so far.
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Mar 16, 2016 21:44
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The comments section is acting on the assumption that there will be 30,000 military ballots and military favours Bernie by 80%. They of course fail to take into account that we had nearly 100,000 soldiers in Afghanistan in 2012, while we have about 10k today, but whatever! edit: This is a pretty good exchange: 
pathetic little tramp has issued a correction as of 21:56 on Mar 16, 2016 |
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Mar 16, 2016 21:53
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Is the site not loading for anyone else? e: wait now it is e2: vvvv How many votes separate Trump from Cruz?
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Mar 16, 2016 21:55
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Oh, you can also buy Trump at less than 95 cents in Missouri too. I guess Missouri is the show me, I'm doubting Thomas, State. Someone please talk me out of buying Hillary+Trump YES and Bernie+Cruz NO. The urge to bet is calling.
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Mar 16, 2016 21:55
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Gyges posted:Oh, you can also buy Trump at less than 95 cents in Missouri too. I guess Missouri is the show me, I'm doubting Thomas, State. Think about the relatively small return you'd get against losing $x. e: Yeah, you'll probably get the return, but with the difference so thin?...
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Mar 16, 2016 21:58
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Shear Modulus posted:Is the site not loading for anyone else? 1726
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Mar 16, 2016 21:59
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What's going in the Missouri GOP market? e: oh, absentee ballots. uhh, is this actually going to give cruz a chance?
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Mar 16, 2016 22:08
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 Sanders MO showing the spike today
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Mar 16, 2016 22:11
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ThndrShk2k posted:
I'm curious. Are you using the API to gather data or what?
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Mar 16, 2016 22:13
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watwat posted:I'm curious. Are you using the API to gather data or what? Actually just parsing the individual page, removing the YES table, sorting the BUY and SELL yes along with volume into an array Throwing that array into Google Forms to make a Google Sheet it shoves all form submissions to Then I just google sheets to aggregate the data into graphs API doesn't have enough data for me to make a large history other than the most recent prices, I might see how that differs from the listed prices (as it might be last transaction for buy/sell vs last listing) later though to see if I can provide more data for you guys Problem is I'm gonna have to learn how to combine 2 filters to 1 submission as I only use 1 filter and it doesn't need to combine data ThndrShk2k has issued a correction as of 22:20 on Mar 16, 2016 |
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Mar 16, 2016 22:17
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I am going all in Hilary MO.
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Mar 16, 2016 22:22
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dangling pointer posted:
Same. gently caress us, right? If I get burned by this I'm out of PredictIt.
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Mar 16, 2016 22:34
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nachos posted:What's going in the Missouri GOP market? The speculation that I saw said that the boats were going to come from military people who mostly swing for Trump.
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Mar 16, 2016 22:38
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I'm not worried that my bet won't pay off but holy poo poo absolutely not worth the price I paid. I have such a love/hate relationship with this drat site.
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Mar 16, 2016 22:41
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GWBBQ posted:Berniebros are the new Ron Paul Guys. whatever7 posted:I am going all in Hilary MO.  Sorry to anyone who bought. But I've started doing that as standard practice because screw unexpected delays (which inevitably happen during elections). The idea that Bernie can win with absentee ballots seems almost entirely based on the theory that there's some massive American army overseas that's all for Bernie and happens to be from Missouri. quote:[The totals] don't include Kansas City absentee and same-day votes that were still uncounted as of Wednesday morning, according to the Kansas City Board of Election Commissioners. However, those figures, which are expected later today, aren't more than "a few hundred" votes, said a spokesman, and so wouldn't affect the outcome. BrutalistMcDonalds has issued a correction as of 22:47 on Mar 16, 2016 |
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Mar 16, 2016 22:43
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Necc0 posted:Same. gently caress us, right? I just took a loss and got out at 90c so I don't have to deal with it. Maybe I'll buy some Bernie NO in the 80's later this week if I can.
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Mar 16, 2016 22:49
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Why did you guys expect Missouri to pay out today? The margins are really close. We knew that last night. Remember when it took weeks for Iowa to be decided in 2012? And that was a caucus.
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Mar 16, 2016 22:49
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Platystemon posted:Why did you guys expect Missouri to pay out today? Pay out as in actively trade it? yes Pay out as in it'll close? not until friday.
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Mar 16, 2016 22:53
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I knew it wouldn't payout today/ awhile. I expected to be able to let it set and be able to sell my shares for 97-99c if I found something better to buy. Or it closes and I dont have to worry about it swinging the other way. Instead I'm guessing Bernie people will keep it at 80 or something dumb for however long it's open.
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Mar 16, 2016 22:55
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dangling pointer posted:I knew it wouldn't payout today/ awhile. I expected to be able to let it set and be able to sell my shares for 97-99c if I found something better to buy. Or it closes and I dont have to worry about it swinging the other way. Instead I'm guessing Bernie people will keep it at 80 or something dumb for however long it's open. I'm playing Bernie Yes Been making like $9 a swap. Bit risky though 
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Mar 16, 2016 22:59
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Yeah, gently caress this Missouri market. The worst part is that I almost got out last night, but I wasn't one of the lucky ones to get out at 99 cents, and I was too stubborn to sell everything at 95 after the Bernie bots made the market get panicky (I only sold enough shares to let me bet on the Supreme Court Nom and Hawaii). And I'm stuck holding some shares in the 80s that I bought during last night's panics. Trying to burn off some stress by flipping Hillary shares, but this wait is going to be rough. I still love the comment section. Sure, Bernie has a 18-23% chance of winning  . I mean, I can see taking out a 5 or even a 10 cent lottery ticket, but this is loving nuts. There don't seem to be that many absentee ballots, people keep weaving fantasies about students and soldiers, as if old people don't ever absentee vote.Also, I see a bunch of people throwing around the possibility of a recount as if it would help Bernie YES (although I'm sure half are just trolling or manipulating). Unless I'm completely wrong, I don't see how a recount would affect anything under the rules of the market. I mean, we won't know how they'll interpret the rules until it happens, but I think the letter of it is pretty clear.
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Mar 16, 2016 23:04
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this is god drat insanity right here
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Mar 16, 2016 23:13
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It is so loving tempting to get in on this overpriced Bernie action but the risk is just not worth the reward
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Mar 16, 2016 23:15
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At under 80 for Hillary, it's getting real tempting to buy.
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Mar 16, 2016 23:55
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Platystemon posted:Why did you guys expect Missouri to pay out today? The close races have paid out pretty quickly on PredictIt. I don't recall a big delay in Iowa Dems. Maybe I'm forgetting something though. Anyway, I don't think Bernie can make up 1600 votes on the strength of the overseas absentee ballots that were sent at the last minute.
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Mar 17, 2016 00:08
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Arkane posted:$10 Bill Stuff dangling pointer posted:https://medium.com/@USTreasury/in-photos-lin-manuel-miranda-visits-treasury-5d0b3bf42392#.bdo42i9ik If you believe that any of the choices that PredictIt gave will make it on the $10 Bill this year, then buying yes on each will guarantee a profit with the prices as they are now. Two downsides though, first that the amount of shares available is tiny, so there's not a lot of gains to be had. Second, if the Teasury picks somebody else not on the PredictIt list, you're screwed
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Mar 17, 2016 00:08
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Also, there won't be a recount on the Dem side because delegate allocation is what matters and Bernie is already getting exactly 50% of the delegates. He has the legal right but he won't exercise it.
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Mar 17, 2016 00:10
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I wonder how/if they keep the people working on this website honest. If you knew the rule change was coming it would have been the perfect opportunity to tell your friend to max out on sub 5c Bernie shares to dump when it spiked. When they eventually publish stuff about the project it should be an interesting read. BigBobio posted:If you believe that any of the choices that PredictIt gave will make it on the $10 Bill this year, then buying yes on each will guarantee a profit with the prices as they are now. Two downsides though, first that the amount of shares available is tiny, so there's not a lot of gains to be had. Second, if the Teasury picks somebody else not on the PredictIt list, you're screwed I have no idea who will be on it. The tweets Arkane and article I posted seem to be nothing though I found this when I was googling about it.  https://thenew10.treasury.gov/faqs dangling pointer has issued a correction as of 01:06 on Mar 17, 2016 |
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Mar 17, 2016 00:54
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dangling pointer posted:I wonder how/if they keep the people working on this website honest. If you knew the rule change was coming it would have been the perfect opportunity to tell your friend to max out on sub 5c Bernie shares to dump when it spiked. It'd be pretty easy to spot a handful of traders repeatedly insane bets that paid off. This assumes that they care to look though.
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Mar 17, 2016 01:05
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