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theflyingorc posted:The NowCast has Hillary taking 360 EVs lol I'm pretty desperate for Trump to get totally buried in EVs. If he loses narrowly, whether he tries to drag it out/sue over fraud/whatever, you can bet his movement is just going to be emboldened. Utterly stomping them won't completely cut it short, but it would make people more gun-shy about voting for the next white nationalist demagogue in the next Republican primary.
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Aug 4, 2016 14:52
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Yeah some of you youn'uns don't remember the 90s and how much of a hate boner they had for Clinton. The idea that the Clintons are murdering people and should go to jail is not new. Even that wasn't the start.
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Aug 4, 2016 14:53
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bowser posted:How long has the GOP base been so angry? For all the Trump hate I see from liberals there are very few calls to imprison or hang him.
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Aug 4, 2016 14:54
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Radish posted:Yeah some of you youn'uns don't remember the 90s and how much of a hate boner they had for Clinton. The idea that the Clintons were murdering people and should go to jail is not new. Yeah, that much I know. I was like 12 during the Lewinsky scandal, so I knew enough about what was going on and had definitely heard the names Vince Foster and Gennifer Flowers before. Oh, and Whitewater, though I had no idea what all that was about. I grew up in a pretty staunchly Democratic household, though, so I was never exposed to the full rage treatment. Both of my parents hated Hillary even as they voted for Bill, though, for reasons I couldn't quite figure out (and that's still true today).
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Aug 4, 2016 14:56
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FactsAreUseless posted:Probably since Rush Limbaugh came on-air. You can find a pretty clear divide between the pre-Limbaugh and post-Limbaugh American right. Obviously the attitudes were there, but Limbaugh gave them a voice they hadn't had before. Yup. It started when Clinton I took office. Rush ushered in a lot of this bloviating rage.
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Aug 4, 2016 14:57
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Also, a question: What's a Tracking Poll, exactly? As opposed to a normal poll?
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Aug 4, 2016 14:58
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Harrow posted:I'm pretty desperate for Trump to get totally buried in EVs. If he loses narrowly, whether he tries to drag it out/sue over fraud/whatever, you can bet his movement is just going to be emboldened. Utterly stomping them won't completely cut it short, but it would make people more gun-shy about voting for the next white nationalist demagogue in the next Republican primary.
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Aug 4, 2016 14:58
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Night10194 posted:Also, a question: What's a Tracking Poll, exactly? As opposed to a normal poll?
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Aug 4, 2016 14:59
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bowser posted:How long has the GOP base been so angry? For all the Trump hate I see from liberals there are very few calls to imprison or hang him. A big part of it is not having the presidency - there was a lot of similar talk from the fringe left (well, not so much by elected officials...) during the Bush years targeting Bush, especially if you go back and watch footage of the antiwar rallies (which nearly stopped as soon as Obama was elected, because they weren't functionally antiwar rallies, they were antiBush rallies).
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Aug 4, 2016 15:00
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What is the precedent for a candidate coming back from this bad of a slump with 100 days to go?
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Aug 4, 2016 15:00
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Don't forget we had a Republican congressional panel in the 50's literally trying to root out leftists as subversive anti-American dissidents and ruin their lives.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:01
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Kilroy posted:any map that has AZ as being more likely to go to the dems than OH and FL, and then VA as leans GOP, is total poo poo-tier and to be ignored Electoral-vote.com is the original 538 and started up in 2004. The methodology is piss-simple. The guy who runs the site just uses whatever the most recent state-level poll is and displays it on the map. That's it. AZ is shown as flipping because the latest AZ poll had a small Hillary lead.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:01
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Kilroy posted:Nah they'll just do the "not a true conservative" shtick and double down in 2020 - they are literally too god damned old to know how to do anything else. The only question is if enough of them will be left by 2020 to elect David Duke as the GOP nominee. So, back to the Trump-style demagoguery instead of the old Tea Party, Cruz-style hyperconservative? My guess was that they'd fall back on the Cruz side of things (not necessarily Cruz himself, but a more-conservative-than-thou type like him). Then again, there are plenty of Trump voters who'll still be around and hungry for another Trump. What are the odds the RNC tries to implement superdelegates? Could Trump be the Republicans' McGovern?
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Aug 4, 2016 15:02
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Radish posted:Don't forget we had a Republican congressional panel in the 50's literally trying to root out leftists as subversive anti-American dissidents and ruin their lives. And that St. Ronnie happily informed on Hollywood rivals to it to further his career.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:03
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Mel Mudkiper posted:What is the precedent for a candidate coming back from this bad of a slump with 100 days to go? It's happened before 
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Aug 4, 2016 15:04
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A true American 
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Aug 4, 2016 15:05
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Mel Mudkiper posted:What is the precedent for a candidate coming back from this bad of a slump with 100 days to go?
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Aug 4, 2016 15:05
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bowser posted:How long has the GOP base been so angry? For all the Trump hate I see from liberals there are very few calls to imprison or hang him. The 90s. The polar divide started with Nixon and was furthered by Reagan, but the straight up hatred started in the 90's with Bill and Hillary. Rush Limbaugh and the nascent Fox News then fanned those flames into a wildfire that is still burning and will burn until demographics shifts force the GOP to either die or radically change and adapt.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:05
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Kilroy posted:My understanding of how it works is they just continuously poll, throwing out old results and replacing them with new ones. So those polls are always for the last week, or whatever the window is. You're correct. They're great for picking out trends because they do a rolling poll with samples from the last 1-3 days and they always have the same methodology so while there might be a house effect, you can compare the poll to itself. And that's why it's hilarious that even that LA Times/Daybreak poll, which polls 400 people from the same group of 3000 people ever day, is trending hard for Clinton despite having a 4-5 point house effect for Trump. FlamingLiberal posted:Since 1964 Bingo! I trace this all the way back to Goldwater and the white backlash against Civil Rights legislation. Go read the Perlstein trilogy. Nixonland reads disturbingly similar to these days, except the violence isn't as bad, and the white vote just isn't large enough to matter as much as it did in the 60s. Talk radio and the Clinton presidency (i.e. the GOP losing power) can be called the next phase, I suppose.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:06
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Harrow posted:So, back to the Trump-style demagoguery instead of the old Tea Party, Cruz-style hyperconservative? My guess was that they'd fall back on the Cruz side of things (not necessarily Cruz himself, but a more-conservative-than-thou type like him). If he got the nom he might select Cruz as his running mate, and Cruz might even accept. The other way around would never happen tho.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:06
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Antti posted:Talk radio and the Clinton presidency (i.e. the GOP losing power) can be called the next phase, I suppose.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:11
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Mel Mudkiper posted:What is the precedent for a candidate coming back from this bad of a slump with 100 days to go? HW was apparently trailing Dukakis by a lot in the summer of 88. That took a really dumb tank shot to unseat him though.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:12
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computer parts posted:HW was apparently trailing Dukakis by a lot in the summer of 88. That took a really dumb tank shot to unseat him though.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:13
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Night10194 posted:Also, a question: What's a Tracking Poll, exactly? As opposed to a normal poll? Tracking polls test the same sample over and over. For example, the LA Times tracking poll that gets so much attention because it consistently shows Trump with big leads, has a full sample of 3000 LVs and they call 400 of them randomly each day.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:15
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WoodrowSkillson posted:The 90s. The polar divide started with Nixon and was furthered by Reagan, but the straight up hatred started in the 90's with Bill and Hillary. Rush Limbaugh and the nascent Fox News then fanned those flames into a wildfire that is still burning and will burn until demographics shifts force the GOP to either die or radically change and adapt. Carter wasn't hated, he was just seen as ineffectual. The change came with the unseating of the Reagan Dynasty by Clinton, and then the rise of radicalizing talk radio.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:17
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zoux posted:Tracking polls test the same sample over and over. For example, the LA Times tracking poll that gets so much attention because it consistently shows Trump with big leads, has a full sample of 3000 LVs and they call 400 of them randomly each day. wouldn't always calling the same group gently caress up the results? eventually you're not polling LVs, you're polling LVs who have been called on the phone and asked who they're voting for about once a week for months
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Aug 4, 2016 15:19
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theflyingorc posted:Wasn't the Clinton presidency the first time that the Republicans took congress by storm? I thought branch control was very similar under Obama and Clinton. During the Reagan presidency there were still a lot of Blue Dog types left which is how Reagan got his lovely stuff passed with 100% Republican support and enough Dems crossing over to push them over despite the congress being a Democratic majority. Republicans taking official control was the parties continuing to sort themselves out to represent their constituents and the changes caused by the Civil Rights Act ("We have lost the South for a Generation" and all that).
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Aug 4, 2016 15:19
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Edmund Lava posted:It's happened before To be fair, polling methods were... a bit different back then.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:20
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Carter wasn't hated, he was just seen as ineffectual.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:20
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We're gonna be seeing so many of these ads binding local candidates to the Trump Hindenburg  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3SwjjZ_IfY
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Aug 4, 2016 15:21
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theflyingorc posted:Wasn't the Clinton presidency the first time that the Republicans took congress by storm? I thought branch control was very similar under Obama and Clinton. The 1994 conservative sweep was a part of this, yeah. But people care more about the executive. We've twice now seen a huge uptick in white militia group activity whenever a Democrat takes office.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:21
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Kilroy posted:wait, really? Ever aggregator/modeler I've seen comment on that LA Times poll says it has a +5 T baked in advantage. I'm not sure what the stat's expert opinion on tracking polls in general is.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:23
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Antti posted:You're correct. They're great for picking out trends because they do a rolling poll with samples from the last 1-3 days and they always have the same methodology so while there might be a house effect, you can compare the poll to itself. And that's why it's hilarious that even that LA Times/Daybreak poll, which polls 400 people from the same group of 3000 people ever day, is trending hard for Clinton despite having a 4-5 point house effect for Trump. don't forget that, in the first book, Perlstein discusses the influence of "talk radio" of the late 50s and early 60s as well. With the Fairness Doctrine gone in '87, Limbaugh and co. were freed to extrapolate the tradition of those predecessors. One of those radio hosts invented the modern hijacking of bestseller lists by printing shitloads of conservative books and selling them in bulk to orgs, too
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Aug 4, 2016 15:23
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Kilroy posted:wait, really? Yes. This is one of my complaints about RealClearPolitics, that they give this full weighting in their average.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:23
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Why don't the dems have an ad lining up a bunch of purple heart recipients with their missing limbs and various disfigurements shaming Trump yet? That should have been a thing before the sun set last night.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:24
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ReidRansom posted:Why don't the dems have an ad lining up a bunch of purple heart recipients with their missing limbs and various disfigurements shaming Trump yet? That should have been a thing before the sun set last night. They can't make ads for every single one of Trump's gently caress ups they only have about $90m cash on hand.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:25
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ReidRansom posted:Why don't the dems have an ad lining up a bunch of purple heart recipients with their missing limbs and various disfigurements shaming Trump yet? That should have been a thing before the sun set last night. Dude that thing happened like a day or so ago. It takes time.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:26
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computer parts posted:HW was apparently trailing Dukakis by a lot in the summer of 88. That took a really dumb tank shot to unseat him though. But as I recall that was pre-convention. Bush caught up a lot post-convention
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Aug 4, 2016 15:26
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ReidRansom posted:Why don't the dems have an ad lining up a bunch of purple heart recipients with their missing limbs and various disfigurements shaming Trump yet? That should have been a thing before the sun set last night. Its August, there are 3 months left to go. They will capitalize on things in due time. Like with the Letterman ad that just ran, they have tons of old footage of trump they are digging through and collecting. Some of their best stuff will be saved until its either needed or near the election when it will be fresh in people's minds. The ad you are talking about may not run until November, just to twist the knife days before the election and remind people of his callousness towards vets.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:30
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He'll make another gaffe today or tomorrow and everyone will move on. They need a rapid response ad team for this stuff. Doesn't need to be televised or in paid ad space, just whip it up and stick on youtube and let the news media run clips talking about it.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:32
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