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Yeah if you're a Democrat and you win Georgia, that means you also won every swing state and maybe Arizona as well.
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Aug 8, 2016 15:45
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Does anyone have a picture of that Trump tweet to suspend all regulations? Or was that a joke? I actually went to his twitter page for the first time...the man looks positively unhinged and that's his main communication platform besides the 26 year old girls he has batting for him on the news networks.
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Aug 8, 2016 15:45
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Trump has to not only win every state Romney did but win all the swing states he lost in order to beat Hillary. He is failing At the moment... MISERABLY! Georgia Arizona and Utah are all In play for democrats right now and that's really bad news for GOP White House aspirations. Is there any polling on how the house and senate look for dems?
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Aug 8, 2016 15:46
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Night10194 posted:Wouldn't flipping Georgia basically win the election instantly? Yeah it's in the Election Rules: § 641(a)(3): If Georgia's electors unanimously select the major liberal party's nominee for President, that nominee auto-wins. Cf. Mercy Rule.
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Aug 8, 2016 15:46
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GA is kind of the Dem's PA though, the one they think that maybe this year, they can flip.
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Aug 8, 2016 15:47
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Dirt posted:In other news JMC Analytics(C rating from 538, has them with a +0.9 R lean) has Clinton up http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/politicalinsider/2016/08/05/clinton-opening-arizona-campaign-offices-fanfare/88306120/ We may see her take Georgia and Arizona this year. Trump has also getting increasingly unpopular in Utah. Now he has actual competition from the Republican side of the house in this election, specifically in Utah. http://www.sltrib.com/opinion/4194662-155/trumps-attack-on-gold-star-parents http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37012626 If this new guy splits the Trump vote in Utah, then that'd be insane.
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Aug 8, 2016 15:47
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7 points in a 4 way poll of Georgia today. She is trending towards flipping GA pretty hard
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haveblue posted:Flip the cause and effect- Georgia flipping would be a side effect of the nation as a whole being ready to give Hillary a landslide. I can live with that outcome. I seriously feel bad for my principled conservative friends this election. If the situation were reversed and I had to choose between an apocalyptically bad candidate and someone who is my political opposite in almost every sense, I'm not sure what I would do.
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Aug 8, 2016 15:49
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Samurai Sanders posted:The only lesson I'm getting from this election is that an ignorant blowhard rear end in a top hat virtuoso like Trump can still get like 30-40% of the country behind him. I'm never going to look at the average guy on the street in America the same way again. No, stop. He is getting, at most, 30-40% of the almost 50% who will bother to have an opinion and/or vote.
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Aug 8, 2016 15:49
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zoux posted:GA is kind of the Dem's PA though, the one they think that maybe this year, they can flip. GA has never polled this well in decades though. I mean I don't think we're going to win it, but if we can force Republicans to spend money there -- the better off we are, because it means we've expanded the map.
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Aug 8, 2016 15:51
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zoux posted:GA is kind of the Dem's PA though, the one they think that maybe this year, they can flip. Isn't that Texas? Grundulum posted:I can live with that outcome. I don't think "the continued existence of contemporary society" is a particularly tough call.
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Aug 8, 2016 15:52
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Samurai Sanders posted:The only lesson I'm getting from this election is that an ignorant blowhard rear end in a top hat virtuoso like Trump can still get like 30-40% of the country behind him. I'm never going to look at the average guy on the street in America the same way again. If you weren't already looking at most people with a combination of amusement and disgust you are hopelessly naive and late to the party.
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Aug 8, 2016 15:52
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Reminder that the actual no-foolin death knell of the republicans is if for any reason Texas doesnt vote republican. Doesn't matter if they vote for El Loco Gringo party or whatever, but there is absolutely no path to the White House for the republicans without it.
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Aug 8, 2016 15:53
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GA and PA aren't experiencing demographic changes on the level of Texas, though.
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Aug 8, 2016 15:53
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Man, I look forward to more states turning Blue this November. Shame Texas probably won't be one of them, but as a Texan I'm definitely gonna start giggling when it goes surprisingly purple and the local Republicans freak out.
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Aug 8, 2016 15:54
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Night10194 posted:Wouldn't flipping Georgia basically win the election instantly? What people already said, but Georgia moving towards being a swing state would make Republican campaign strategists weep uncontrollably. So I'm all for it.
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Aug 8, 2016 15:54
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How many more years until Texas flips blue?
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Aug 8, 2016 15:55
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gradenko_2000 posted:Isn't that Texas? Texas is the kokoro wish because once that flips there will never be another Republican president. seiferguy posted:How many more years until Texas flips blue? 20
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Aug 8, 2016 15:55
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iospace posted:Likely a national buy with some targeted stuff thrown in. If you're going to national buy, Olympics and nationally televised football games are what you want to do. I wouldn't be surprised if Hillary already is planning to block out Trump from the latter, or has already. I wonder what the dynamics of ad buys in this election is. Like, are there some station managers in Ohio that are freaking out over republican ad buys that were expected in the annual budget not appearing, since Trump is essentially running his campaign as a hybrid embezzlement/money laundering scheme?
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Aug 8, 2016 15:55
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Crows Turn Off posted:She may be able to flip Arizona as well. It's been trending toward her for a couple weeks now, with a handful of polls showing her in the lead. She also just opened up some campaign offices there and upped the spending in the state, so they think it's doable. Can pro-Hillary PACs run Anti-Trump/ Pro Johnson or this other guy ads? Is that legal? If that isn't against the law, it seems like that might be a good use of some cash to potentially bleed Trump of some votes. Is this a dumb idea? ha
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Aug 8, 2016 15:55
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disjoe posted:GA and PA aren't experiencing demographic changes on the level of Texas, though. Actually, GA is experiencing a huge influx of hispanic and latino voters. PA is also seeing an outmigration in places, but also an influx of more liberal, college-educated voters in Pittsburgh.
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Aug 8, 2016 15:56
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Barudak posted:Reminder that the actual no-foolin death knell of the republicans is if for any reason Texas doesnt vote republican. Doesn't matter if they vote for El Loco Gringo party or whatever, but there is absolutely no path to the White House for the republicans without it. You could argue the Republicans already lack a path to the White House.
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Aug 8, 2016 15:57
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If a state like GA or AZ flip is it still highly unlikely to retake the house and senate? How would flipping major red states like that effect 2020?
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Aug 8, 2016 15:57
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Ultimate blowout scenario: http://www.270towin.com/maps/DAdZD You couuuuuuuld add Indiana and Texas to Hillary's pile, but if trends hold up, it could easily be a 350+ blowout.
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Aug 8, 2016 15:59
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disjoe posted:GA and PA aren't experiencing demographic changes on the level of Texas, though. Part of the DNC's misapprehension of Texas is this assumption that Latino voters in Texas will automatically go for the D candidate. Wendy Davis and Greg Abbott split Latino voters right down the middle in '14.
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Aug 8, 2016 16:00
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More stuff on GA trending Hilldawg: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/762664131593842688
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Aug 8, 2016 16:00
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Arrgytehpirate posted:If a state like GA or AZ flip is it still highly unlikely to retake the house and senate? I'd say retaking the Senate is realistic even without GA or AZ flipping, though difficult. Retaking the House just isn't realistic for a while, even with Trump dragging everyone down.
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Aug 8, 2016 16:01
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zoux posted:Texas is the kokoro wish because once that flips there will never be another Republican president. It's totally possible that Texas could flip blue in 2024, but it would require the Clinton II Administration to get rid of the Shelby ruling(and strengthen the VRA outside of that), and a moderate latinx democrat from texas at the top of the ticket to do it.
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Aug 8, 2016 16:01
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iospace posted:Ultimate blowout scenario: http://www.270towin.com/maps/DAdZD In fact, PEC has the most highly-probable scenarios at 335-365(!)
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Aug 8, 2016 16:02
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disjoe posted:Sometimes windmills are placed near residences and apparently they're REALLY loving LOUD. Like, drive you insane loud. they are not. i live in germany, where last year roughly the same percentage of our energy came from wind as from nuclear. especially here in the north there are massive wind parks everywhere. a lot of farms have a turbine on their property to cover their energy costs, including farmers i know personally. you can hear some whirring when you're standing underneath the things, but it's a stretch to call them loud. if you can live with the noise from an air conditioning unit (or an older fridge), you can live with a turbine.
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Aug 8, 2016 16:03
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zoux posted:Part of the DNC's misapprehension of Texas is this assumption that Latino voters in Texas will automatically go for the D candidate. Wendy Davis and Greg Abbott split Latino voters right down the middle in '14. While I don't disagree entirely, you're talking about a mid-term election now and not a general election maybe two, three cycles down the road. Also state/local races are somewhat different from national.
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Aug 8, 2016 16:08
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botany posted:they are not. i live in germany, where last year roughly the same percentage of our energy came from wind as from nuclear. especially here in the north there are massive wind parks everywhere. a lot of farms have a turbine on their property to cover their energy costs, including farmers i know personally. you can hear some whirring when you're standing underneath the things, but it's a stretch to call them loud. if you can live with the noise from an air conditioning unit (or an older fridge), you can live with a turbine. I looked it up and at first glance I'm glad to be wrong. Though I wouldn't put it past U.S. utility commissions to authorize only the oldest, cheapest, loudest turbines in existence.
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Aug 8, 2016 16:09
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disjoe posted:GA and PA aren't experiencing demographic changes on the level of Texas, though. Georgia's % of the black population went from around 20% in 2000 to 30% this year. The Atlanta metropolitain area is probably majority-minority by this point. It's not a dramatic demographic change like Virginia or Texas have experienced, but it's enough to shift Georgia from solid red.
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Aug 8, 2016 16:18
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theflyingorc posted:2. Ugly The wrongest opinion.
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Aug 8, 2016 16:19
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CroatianAlzheimers posted:The wrongest opinion. add racing stripes to our windmills to solve the ugly problem and the birdstrike problem
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Aug 8, 2016 16:20
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 Trump's tax plan has been removed from his site I'm not sure how much was there before, but there are only SIX sections under "Positions" right now
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Aug 8, 2016 16:21
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i am harry posted:No, stop. He is getting, at most, 30-40% of the almost 50% who will bother to have an opinion and/or vote. Still, a significant minority of the population are proto-fascists desperately waiting for a Mussolini figure.
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Aug 8, 2016 16:31
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With the election heating up, anyone have any good movie suggestions? The Ides of March (2011) with George Clooney has a lot of steamy election intrigue and backstabbing. Any other good political thrillers in that ilk? I think I'm going to queue up All the President's Men next.
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Aug 8, 2016 16:33
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Dead Zone.
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Aug 8, 2016 16:36
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Violator posted:With the election heating up, anyone have any good movie suggestions? The Ides of March (2011) with George Clooney has a lot of steamy election intrigue and backstabbing. Any other good political thrillers in that ilk? I think I'm going to queue up All the President's Men next.
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Aug 8, 2016 16:37
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Regarding Texas I would also for the record state I wouldn't imagine it would ever go blue for more than one cycle in the terms some of you all are thinking. If it did flip in that manner the republicans are so done a massive realignment is the only outcome unless America suddenly becomes a one party country. I would presume then, Texas would form the backbone of said new party
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Aug 8, 2016 16:38
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