|
Junior G-man posted:I think it's because she's smart enough not to go Tiffany shopping in the middle of an election campaign that she's a very visible part of. This isn't a normal election though - the people Trump wants at the polls are those that would get a vicarious thrill reading about Ivanka wasting a million dollars on some frivolous purchase.
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2016 15:52
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 26, 2024 10:06 |
|
|
Goatman Sacks posted:So, why is the LA daily tracker such poo poo? As mentioned before they track the same sample over time. You can see how this poll will always be close because anyone who has ever considered supporting Trump at any point is likely looking for any reason at all not to vote Hillary. Basically, if Hillary has a lead at any point in this poll, Trump is currently majorly loving up because the natural state of this poll should be a slight Trump lead.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2016 15:52
|
|
|
All the trackers have been more favorable towards Trump than traditional polls. Nate had an article about it, argued that since even the trackers were showing C+5, the bump is real.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2016 15:53
|
|
|
nachos posted:As mentioned before they track the same sample over time. You can see how this poll will always be close because anyone who has ever considered supporting Trump at any point is likely looking for any reason at all not to vote Hillary. Basically, if Hillary has a lead at any point in this poll, Trump is currently majorly loving up because the natural state of this poll should be a slight Trump lead. Isn't Daybreak also the poll where they use self-reporting to figure out who voted D and R in 2012? This will  skew the sample towards people who voted R, because people "forget" voting for the loser.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2016 15:55
|
|
|
Antti posted:Isn't Daybreak also the poll where they use self-reporting to figure out who voted D and R in 2012? This will Yeah they also weight by past vote. It's a weird poll, and probably a really bad one too.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2016 15:56
|
|
|
theflyingorc posted:supposed to be "bless your heart", but yeah Bless you for clearing that up for us all, sweetheart. I would have never known the proper way its supposed to be!
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2016 15:58
|
|
|
It's not an awful poll but you have to remember the things they do weirdly when interpreting it. It's useful for comparing against itself.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2016 15:59
|
|
|
Antti posted:It's not an awful poll but you have to remember the things they do weirdly when interpreting it. It's useful for comparing against itself. I mean we won't know what's a bad poll and what's a good one until November. But it is waaaaay out of line with all other polling. Maybe all the other polls are wrong.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2016 16:01
|
|
|
Killer-of-Lawyers posted:Bless you for clearing that up for us all, sweetheart. I would have never known the proper way its supposed to be! I'll be praying for you.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2016 16:01
|
|
|
Antti posted:Isn't Daybreak also the poll where they use self-reporting to figure out who voted D and R in 2012? This will quote:Results are weighted to match demographic characteristics, such as race and gender, from the U.S. Census Current Population Survey and aligned to the 2012 presidential election outcome using self-reported vote in that election. Yes and I don't understand what the bolded means
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2016 16:02
|
|
|
"Bless your heart" is southern code for "gently caress you, and". You preface your sentences with it the same way people preface their sentences with "I'm not racist, but". Language is neat.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2016 16:03
|
|
|
Why do these Republicans keep us from having a public option?!  Oh...
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2016 16:05
|
|
|
Antti posted:Isn't Daybreak also the poll where they use self-reporting to figure out who voted D and R in 2012? This will I understand why using self-reported vote results is wrong, but how is one supposed to do it? Just demographics? I guess likely voter screens asking whether someone has voted in the last election have similar problems, too...
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2016 16:07
|
|
|
The general thrust of that article is that Dems would be happy to pass a public option, except that Republicans control Congress and are almost certain to retain control of the House after the election, so I'm not sure what point you're making here 
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2016 16:10
|
|
|
Can we change the thread title now? I'm a horrible pessimist who assumes the worst about everything , and I can't think of a single plausible scenario where he comes back from this and gets into power.
Ghetto Prince fucked around with this message at 16:17 on Aug 18, 2016 |
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2016 16:12
|
|
|
OddObserver posted:I understand why using self-reported vote results is wrong, but how is one supposed to do it? Just demographics? I guess likely voter screens asking whether someone has voted in the last election have similar problems, too... Just asking "What party do you identify the most with right now?" or something more generic like that is better than asking who you voted for four years ago.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2016 16:13
|
|
|
Can the thread title be a video of Tim Kaine telling reporters to try the wonders of an Iowa State Fair pork chop?
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2016 16:14
|
|
|
Phone posted:"Bless your heart" is southern code for "gently caress you, and". Eh, where I've lived in the south, it's always meant more as "Wow, you're an idiot/naive/gullible, and..." more than "gently caress you".
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2016 16:15
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/BenjySarlin/status/766291489718542336
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2016 16:17
|
|
|
One lesson I hope people learn from the 2016 election is that "fair and balanced" media does not equal "honest" media. Sometimes the truth isn't fair or balanced. Sometimes when you show "both sides" of an issue, one side is just bullshit. But even if I hope people learn that, I'm not that optimistic.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2016 16:21
|
|
|
DaveWoo posted:The general thrust of that article is that Dems would be happy to pass a public option, except that Republicans control Congress and are almost certain to retain control of the House after the election, so I'm not sure what point you're making here You're going to win neither the house nor senate without supporting it. And only one out of the eleven Democrats running this year running for contested seats in the senate supports the public option. I'm glad Trump is making this party a haven for closeted conservatives.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2016 16:23
|
|
|
Sub Par posted:Eh, where I've lived in the south, it's always meant more as "Wow, you're an idiot/naive/gullible, and..." more than "gently caress you". Growing up, I always thought it was something grownups say when you're 3 years old, trying as hard as you can to do something, and failing at it.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2016 16:24
|
|
|
Trump's ad buy is really starting to raise the question of what exactly is he spending the 100+ million he raised so far on? Is he just going to try and dump all of his money into ads in October? Does he have some insanely high burn rate on infrastructure and staff?
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2016 16:25
|
|
|
canepazzo posted:https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/766242738463502336 People have already highlighted the fact that 48% of people supposedly get their news from InfoWars and that conclusion section, but I feel like I have to give a call out to the suggestions section which recommended that Hillary get a body double for climbing stairs. Ghetto Prince posted:Can we change the thread title now? I'm a horrible pessimist who assumes the worst about everything , and I can't think of a single plausible scenario where he comes back from this and gets into power. It's actually still appropriate if you think of him saying that in deadpan seriousness to a room of Republican donors.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2016 16:25
|
|
|
Tim Kaine is the most Mormon, Midwestern, Mr. Rogers person I've seen that is neither Mormon, Midwestern, nor Mr. Rogers.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2016 16:28
|
|
|
Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Trump's ad buy is really starting to raise the question of what exactly is he spending the 100+ million he raised so far on? It'll probably turn into a Trumpster's Millions situation near the end, like using a priceless stamp to send a tweet.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2016 16:29
|
|
|
Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Trump's ad buy is really starting to raise the question of what exactly is he spending the 100+ million he raised so far on? I honestly think he thinks he can keep whatever's left over at the end.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2016 16:30
|
|
|
Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Trump's ad buy is really starting to raise the question of what exactly is he spending the 100+ million he raised so far on? Oh that question has been out there.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2016 16:31
|
|
|
Pretty sure trump campaign is inspired by the producers. He's going to make more with a flop than a hit
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2016 16:33
|
|
|
Ghetto Prince posted:Can we change the thread title now? I'm a horrible pessimist who assumes the worst about everything , and I can't think of a single plausible scenario where he comes back from this and gets into power. He has an exceptional performance in debates not through intelligent answers but managing to start some narrative or create some gaff so bad that he is about to leverage it into a shift in polling just enough to pull off a close victory.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2016 16:37
|
|
|
Rassle posted:Growing up, I always thought it was something grownups say when you're 3 years old, trying as hard as you can to do something, and failing at it. yeah, "bless your heart" is more like "well aren't you special" with all the condecension that implies when you say it to an adult rather than a child edrith posted:I'm checking out their website and drat, girlfriend is budget shopping. I have a couple pieces of jewelry of comparable price and I barely make a living wage. I know she probably just likes the style but I like to think this is another indication that the Trumps don't actually have that much money. ivanka's not dumb, and she's not some materialist stereotype. also she's married and she and her husband are independently wealthy. i wouldn't read too much into it
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2016 16:38
|
|
|
VanSandman posted:I was doing some serious driving lately, and found a station playing Glen Beck. That dude is so goddamn salty about Trumpism it's hilarious. I recommend it for some good schadenfreude. Yassssss. It's amazing. I don't even know what to do with myself when Glenn Beck, noted lunatic, is a voice of reason. WTF, even. See also: Matt Walsh. He's been super this-dude's-not-a-real-Christian for months, now.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2016 16:38
|
|
|
Hell Yeah https://twitter.com/mattzap/status/766296423650455552
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2016 16:38
|
|
|
Slate Action posted:Hell Yeah This is awesome. I wonder if that Mother Jones article gave them enough push to do something about it.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2016 16:40
|
|
|
I wouldn't be surprised if most of that goes toward staff salaries, and we find out his advisors (and family) are being paid absurdly high salaries
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2016 16:41
|
|
|
"We need to stop these government death camps from taking the free prison market over" - GOP, probably
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2016 16:42
|
|
|
Please follow through, please follow through, please follow through...
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2016 16:43
|
|
|
Maybe that stuff about him setting up to create his own media group are right and he's sitting on the money to fund a post-loss pet project like that. I'm sure there's some scammy way to do it.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2016 16:43
|
|
|
This is a loving good thing.
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2016 16:44
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 26, 2024 10:06 |
|
|
All private prisons, as in, killing the industry? Or is this just at the federal level and we'll still have state-sanctioned hellholes?
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2016 16:45
|
|
