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Samu posted:If you think about it just in terms of points, Maclin and Lacy combined are guaranteed to outscore Hopkins. I think Eddie Lacy will rush for 1000-1200 this year and Maclin will likely repeat his numbers from last year. Essentially I'm trading guaranteed points from having an elite receiver for value and depth. So far, your logic is "I remember having this one guy last year and he did good" and "two players score more points than one player." Neither of these rationales is good, and certainly not solid enough to justify giving up a top tier player. Sure two players score more points than one player, but they cost twice as many slots so this never ever matters. However, your RBs are super doodoo (you're handcuffing an RB3?) and if Aiken or Diggs hits you can afford to be a little lighter on WR. Basically, if you can only start 2 WRs I say "do it" but if you can start/flex a third WR, I say no. Also, I refuse to believe a 12 team waiver wire is such a dumpster fire than you can't improve on players like Ginn, West, and a backup to a top 5 TE. Those players shouldn't be rostered in any 12 team league. Drunk Nerds fucked around with this message at 15:04 on Sep 4, 2016 |
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Sep 4, 2016 15:02
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CompeAnansi posted:Since there does not seem to be any data available on 0.5 PPR ADP, do you think it would be reasonable to just average the standard ADP and 1 PPR ADP to get an estimate of where the players might be going? ADP and rankings are super close. These should be good enough: https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/half-point-ppr-cheatsheets.php
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Sep 4, 2016 15:48
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I thought my predictions were relatively bold, but wow some of the [url=https://www.fantasypros.com/2016/09/11-bold-predictions/]fantasypros bold predictions[/i] are bananas. But fun! "Tyrod Taylor and Sammy Watkins will both finish in the top five of their respective positions as Buffalo wins 10 games and a wild card spot" would be so badass I'm not even sure if I could be mad at how improbable it would be. "Kirk Cousins will be benched for Colt McCoy" is probably my favorite for an out-there creative pick.
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Sep 4, 2016 15:54
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Sammy Watkins will be a top 5 wr in ppg, right around where he was last year. The only concern with him is how many games he actually plays. Tyrod was 6th or something in ppg. I don't really think it's that bold of a prediction.
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Sep 4, 2016 15:58
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Gearman posted:ADP and rankings are super close. These should be good enough: But they aren't. If there was no variance between rankings and adp there would be no one undervalued or overvalued relative to the rankings, but there are.
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Sep 4, 2016 16:12
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should I trade my Sims to the Martin owner (he wants the handcuff and tried to offer me Boldin for him) for Terrance West now that he may start in Bmore?
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Sep 4, 2016 16:12
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I'm trying to board the Terrance West train too. Need help on who I should drop. Also, is Mike Wallace better than any of these guys? RBs - Matt Forte Giovani Bernard Theo Riddick Isaiah Crowell WRs T.Y. Hilton Golden Tate Tyler Lockette Torrey Smith Travis Benjamin Rishard Matthews Are any of these guys worth dropping for Terrance West or Mike Wallace or even Pierre Garcon? .5 PPR. Also, before you all make fun of how pitiful my team is, it's a 2 QB League and I somehow got Cam and Aaron, but missed out on every good RB.
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Sep 4, 2016 16:13
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TommyGun85 posted:should I trade my Sims to the Martin owner (he wants the handcuff and tried to offer me Boldin for him) for Terrance West now that he may start in Bmore? gently caress no.
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Sep 4, 2016 16:14
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TommyGun85 posted:should I trade my Sims to the Martin owner (he wants the handcuff and tried to offer me Boldin for him) for Terrance West now that he may start in Bmore? Hell no! West is not a desirable fantasy option. He's in a crowded backfield and he's the worst pass catching back of the bunch in a Marc Trestman option. Do not give up any worthwhile assets to acquire him.
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Sep 4, 2016 16:19
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Just saw Dobson finally got fired into the sun. Yusssssssss
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Sep 4, 2016 16:20
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Papes posted:Hell no! ok thanks, makes sense. Both would be relegated to the bench for me, I just thought the chance of West breaking away from the other backs was greater than Martin getting injured and Sims becoming a starter.
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Sep 4, 2016 16:27
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Any reason to grab Forsett if he was dropped? Is he expected to be resigned? I'd probably be dropping Michael Thomas or Rishad Matthews.
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Sep 4, 2016 16:32
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Scott Justice posted:I'm trying to board the Terrance West train too. Need help on who I should drop. Also, is Mike Wallace better than any of these guys? Matthews is No.2 in Tennesee Torrey Smith is #1 in SF (lol) I think Lockett while #3 in Seattle is a pretty good sleeper to have  I would probably drop Benjamin or Smith
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Sep 4, 2016 17:05
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It's pretty much a given the Ravens are bringing back Forsett, so I'll just repeat myself here:Benne posted:I wouldn't waste a waiver claim on any of those jabronis right now. Wait a few weeks to see if anyone emerges and what the committee workloads look like.
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Sep 4, 2016 17:24
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TommyGun85 posted:ok thanks, makes sense. Sims has value on his own as the third down/pass catching guy in that offense, even if Martin stays healthy.
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Sep 4, 2016 18:10
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Don't drop Travis Benjamnin for Terrance West. Don't add Terrance West. Don't draft Torrey Smith.
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Sep 4, 2016 18:23
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Enjoy your solid and consistent WR40 with Travis Benjamin Also Bishop Sankey meet Belichicanery
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Sep 4, 2016 18:25
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Hey that's borderline WR3!
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Sep 4, 2016 18:27
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RCarr posted:Any reason to grab Forsett if he was dropped? Is he expected to be resigned? I'd probably be dropping Michael Thomas or Rishad Matthews.
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Sep 4, 2016 18:43
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I am drafting tonight. Should I use one of my last picks on Forsett?? e: Oh wait, he may be autodrafted before that.
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Sep 4, 2016 18:57
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Marvin Jones Jr. Det - WR Charles Sims TB - RB Willie Snead NO - WR Spencer Ware KC - RB Christine Michael Sea - RB Duke Johnson Cle - RB So i'm in need of a TE and a K, who would you guys drop? Thinking i either drop Snead or maybe just try to trade him for a K at this point.
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Sep 4, 2016 19:02
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VietCampo posted:Marvin Jones Jr. Det - WR You're choices are Michael, Simms, Snead and Ware. Personally I'd dump Simms and Ware.
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Sep 4, 2016 19:18
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Do not drop sims
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Sep 4, 2016 19:19
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VietCampo posted:Marvin Jones Jr. Det - WR I agree that Snead may be the least valuable here. I don't expect him to visit the end zone much so he's replaceable with any WR3 off the wire mid-season. Sims and Johnson have established PPR roles but they wouldn't automatically become RB1s if their lead backs went down; if this is standard scoring, I'd probably lose one of them but a trade may net you a better return. Ware and Michael could both perform at high levels if Charles/Rawls aren't right so I think they may be worth holding onto until we actually see Charles/Rawls on the field at 100%. Ware has week 1 value so you could try to trade him whereas I feel Michael is the better stash for the long haul. Although if this is a small league and every team is stacked, you may just have to make a tough decision.
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Sep 4, 2016 19:20
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Tiptoes posted:How are these your most droppable players? Is this an 8 team league? Is this PPR or standard? It's a 12 team full PPR league, i waited on K and kept getting sniped on TE and just didn't draft either in the end. I grabbed Ware and Cmike with my last 2 picks just for the potential upside.
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Sep 4, 2016 19:22
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VietCampo posted:It's a 12 team full PPR league, i waited on K and kept getting sniped on TE and just didn't draft either in the end.
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Sep 4, 2016 19:25
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Tiptoes posted:Well goddamn good job then. I'd throw out trade offers in that case. You should be able to pull off a 2-for-1 for a strong TE or possibly just a better WR/RB and then grab a TE off the wire. Try seeing what you can get for Ware+ from the Charles owner. Charles owner has Delanie Walker and Witten, i'm thinking about offering him Ware for Walker, but he probably won't go for that, so i might have to settle for Witten.
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Sep 4, 2016 19:28
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VietCampo posted:Charles owner has Delanie Walker and Witten, i'm thinking about offering him Ware for Walker, but he probably won't go for that, so i might have to settle for Witten.
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Sep 4, 2016 19:34
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Tiptoes posted:Ugh that's rough. I'm not a fan of Witten this year, especially with a rookie QB playing a lot. Does he have a secondary WR/RB that could improve your team? If you stole one of those, you could probably grab a TE streamer off the wire (Steelers TE Jesse James comes to mind as someone with a juicy Week 1 match-up) and get basically the same TE production as Witten. Yea, my first thought was drop Snead for Jesse James or Walford and stream. Only person he has that would upgrade my team is Hopkins
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Sep 4, 2016 19:38
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Drunk Nerds posted:So far, your logic is "I remember having this one guy last year and he did good" and "two players score more points than one player." Neither of these rationales is good, and certainly not solid enough to justify giving up a top tier player. Sure two players score more points than one player, but they cost twice as many slots so this never ever matters. Well my logic is that my team sucks because I had to leave after round 11 and I autopicked some garbage in the late rounds that has killed any depth I would have liked to have. I think handcuffing Arian Foster was the right move because I like how Adam Gase uses running backs, and before the preseason it was unclear who would win the starting job in Miami but it was worth a late round pick to have stock in that backfield. I think that Eddie Lacy is undervalued after last season, and that Maclin will be around WR10-15 at the end of the season like last year with little chance of seeing a decrease in targets or production playing as the only threat in the KC passing game outside of Kelce. If Hopkins is as elite as last year, and there's no reason to think he wont be, he puts up 400 more yards and 3 touchdowns more than Maclin. Even if Eddie Lacy has a mediocre year he'll make up that difference while also giving me more options at a weak point on my team right now considering Charles might miss time early in the season. The upside however is huge, and if he preforms how Green Bay expects him too he'll be one of the top fantasy runningbacks. My buddy is now willing to throw in Henry from Tennesse, who looks like a beast but is still behind DeMarco Murray on the depth chart. I think this is a decent amount of value for Hopkins, but I still don't know if it's worth it. He's also willing to change Maclin for Benjamin but I'm not that high on Benjamin. Samu fucked around with this message at 20:33 on Sep 4, 2016 |
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Sep 4, 2016 20:23
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Any owner that receives the 2 in a 2-for-1 loses that trade 99/100 times. If you're worried about your team's ability to compete, the worst thing you can do is trade away your best player. I would infinitely rather trade Wilson for a QB downgrade and WR/RB upgrade, then drop Graham for a 2nd QB, but I'd even be hesitant to do that unless it's a really good trade in your favor Teemu Pokemon fucked around with this message at 20:48 on Sep 4, 2016 |
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Sep 4, 2016 20:45
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Samu posted:If Hopkins is as elite as last year, and there's no reason to think he wont be, he puts up 400 more yards and 3 touchdowns more than Maclin. There are some decently compelling reasons to think Hopkins won't be as elite (in terms of fantasy) as he was last year. He'll still be a stud, and there's no guarantee Maclin doesn't do a bit worse (or better) than last year too, but the gap might be a bit smaller between the two next year. Honestly kind of shocked at the reaction to the trade here, especially given that it's a standard league and his RBs are Charles, Foster, Ajayi, and Gio Bernard. Not sure which way I'd go, but I'd find it really hard to turn down Lacy, Maclin, and Derrick Henry. I think I'd probably take it.
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Sep 4, 2016 20:55
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Samu posted:Well my logic is that my team sucks because I had to leave after round 11 Your team isn't that good even with your 11 picks though, but i would consider taking it with Henry, he does have the skillset and potential to take over that starting job. VietCampo fucked around with this message at 21:01 on Sep 4, 2016 |
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Sep 4, 2016 20:58
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I think the logic is flawed, but the return is worth considering.
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Sep 4, 2016 20:59
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I have a draft in a few hours, 12 teams, PPR, 1QB 3WR 2RB 1 W/R/T, standard PPR EXCEPT at 100, 150, and 200 yards rushing or receiving (individually, not combined) players get 10/5/10 bonus points (yes they stack). I have Gurley and David Johnson as 6th 7th round keepers and I lucked into the first pick. Antonio Brown is being kept, but am I crazy for considering Hopkins over OBJ here? And when it comes back to me should I just go WR/WR or should I think about Rodgers (QBs get 5/10/15 at 300/400/500) or Reed if they're on the board still? Most of the top players aren't being kept because they were drafted last year around where they should go this year, and it costs a round higher to keep someone (UDFA cost a 7th). e: and...that article just above makes me reconsider everything. IcePhoenix fucked around with this message at 21:22 on Sep 4, 2016 |
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Sep 4, 2016 21:18
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In dynasty, do you guys think it's fair value in .5 ppr to trade Shephard for Cousins straight up if you lack a QB? I am stacked at WR and RB and TE.
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Sep 4, 2016 21:18
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Spiros posted:In dynasty, do you guys think it's fair value in .5 ppr to trade Shephard for Cousins straight up if you lack a QB? I am stacked at WR and RB and TE. Nah, that's awful. Cousins isn't worth a 1st round pick in a 1 QB league.
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Sep 4, 2016 21:24
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IcePhoenix posted:I have a draft in a few hours, 12 teams, PPR, 1QB 3WR 2RB 1 W/R/T, standard PPR EXCEPT at 100, 150, and 200 yards rushing or receiving (individually, not combined) players get 10/5/10 bonus points (yes they stack). I have Gurley and David Johnson as 6th 7th round keepers and I lucked into the first pick. Antonio Brown is being kept, but am I crazy for considering Hopkins over OBJ here? And when it comes back to me should I just go WR/WR or should I think about Rodgers (QBs get 5/10/15 at 300/400/500) or Reed if they're on the board still? Most of the top players aren't being kept because they were drafted last year around where they should go this year, and it costs a round higher to keep someone (UDFA cost a 7th). Is Julio available? with those bonuses i would probably choose between Julio or ODB.
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Sep 4, 2016 21:25
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Julio is kept as well, I agree that he'd be better than either of them with these settings, though. AJ Green and Dez are also kept, if it matters for anyone.
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Sep 4, 2016 21:27
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Ah, then i'd go ODB.
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Sep 4, 2016 21:29
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