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lozzle
Oct 22, 2012

by zen death robot

Qwazes posted:

I think Hillary's going to win and win handily, but she's ahead by about 5 points, not 30. Polls where she's losing do exist. This is far from locked down.

Edit: The person I was quoting beat me to my own point...

There is a poll where she's losing. Singular.

And 5 points is a lot dude.

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Instant Sunrise
Apr 12, 2007


The manger babies don't have feelings. You said it yourself.

lozzle posted:

Yeah I don't get the "these women who knowingly slept with a married man are victims of his evil bitch of a wife :qq: " narrative.

hillary clinton is obviously hera

Islam is the Lite Rock FM
Jul 27, 2007

by exmarx
Yes attack Hillary by going after Bill's infidelity, GOP. loving do it.

Mr Hootington
Jul 24, 2008

I'M HAVING A HOOT EATING CORNETTE THE LONG WAY
Christie is pretty good in town hall settings and would be a good prepper for the up coming town hall trump has to do. Thank god trump will not listen.

Eifert Posting
Apr 1, 2007

Most of the time he catches it every time.
Grimey Drawer

It looks like he's had a broken nose since...

Grundulum
Feb 28, 2006

lozzle posted:

Yeah I don't get the "these women who knowingly slept with a married man are victims of his evil bitch of a wife :qq: " narrative.

You're ignoring the power imbalance when the governor/president invites you into an affair. These women may not have felt like they had a choice in the matter, which then makes a campaign to undermine their accusations especially scummy.

Going after Hillary for this is totally a target of opportunity rather than any sort of actual moral outrage. Like how somehow Benghazi shifted to being Hillary's fault after Obama won the 2012 election.

Tiny Brontosaurus
Aug 1, 2013

by Lowtax

Islam is the Lite Rock FM posted:

How much is that Obama getting older vs being president?

Answering this question will be the headline of Julian Castro's 2024 presidential bid.

Shimrra Jamaane
Aug 10, 2007

Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

Qwazes posted:

I think Hillary's going to win and win handily, but she's ahead by about 5 points, not 30. Polls where she's losing do exist. This is far from locked down.

Edit: The person I was quoting beat me to my own point...

Find a poll that isn't the LA Times tracker that has Hillary down. One that isn't at least 2 weeks old. Go on.

Night10194
Feb 13, 2012

We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

Something like that NYT article worries me more because I keep worrying they'll decide to have another month of 'gently caress Hillary Clinton for anything and everything' like September. It's an irrational worry but it's always there.

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005

iospace posted:

Arguably unethical, but that being said, it's one thing to "not pay any taxes", and entirely different thing to "not pay taxes because you utterly suck at business when your entire image is built around it."

That said:
https://twitter.com/nxthompson/status/782767557271023617

The left one was taking with an absurdly wide angle lens.

Serrath
Mar 17, 2005

I have nothing of value to contribute
Ham Wrangler

Mr Interweb posted:

Another thing that's been bugging me: Trump and his minions keep saying that he released some of financial documents that allegedly show more information that tax returns would. If that's the case, then what would be the worry about releasing his tax returns?

Because Trump's concerns about his taxes has always been about giving people a means to access his net worth. That has always been the most explosive thing in the taxes (to him); even when he was accused of not paying taxes before the actual returns were released, he never really offered a defense to this. Say something that suggests he isn't worth $10 billion, though, and he immediately flips out and goes on the attack.

What is important to Trump is based on a different metric than what is important to the voters. If someone had offered a hypothetical deal with him before this leak where he could agree to concede to the voting public that he has paid no taxes ever in exchange for never having to reveal his returns or reveal how much he is worth, I bet he'd take that deal in a heartbeat and think he got off lightly.

To <us>, his tax rate is probably the most explosive thing in there and the "worst" secret is probably leaked already. But he's going to continue to resist calls to release them because, <to him>, they''re still hiding the secret he treasures most.

Cythereal
Nov 8, 2009

I love the potoo,
and the potoo loves you.

Grundulum posted:

Going after Hillary for this is totally a target of opportunity rather than any sort of actual moral outrage. Like how somehow Benghazi shifted to being Hillary's fault after Obama won the 2012 election.

And somehow the GOP (well, Trump) doesn't seem to know or care that Hillary's certain to have spent hours preparing for this line of attack.

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!

Night10194 posted:

Something like that NYT article worries me more because I keep worrying they'll decide to have another month of 'gently caress Hillary Clinton for anything and everything' like September. It's an irrational worry but it's always there.

There are 2 debates guaranteed to break that cycle

iospace
Jan 19, 2038



The best part is now the pieces are falling into place. Trump has two options: release his taxes and squash the speculation, or let the speculation run rampant.

The Glumslinger
Sep 24, 2008

Coach Nagy, you want me to throw to WHAT side of the field?


Hair Elf

Cythereal posted:

And somehow the GOP (well, Trump) doesn't seem to know or care that Hillary's certain to have spent hours preparing for this line of attack.

Hours? :lol:

You mean decades

Night10194
Feb 13, 2012

We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

nachos posted:

There are 2 debates guaranteed to break that cycle

Yeah, I know that specific worry is just the anxiety trouble. It'll be fine.

Especially as the news is much more filled with Crazy Trump and Tax Meltdowns.

Qwazes
Sep 29, 2014
Fun Shoe
I never said she was anywhere close to losing, but she was up 10ish points in August. The race has been close in the past. I understand that she has a very large lead but acting like it's absolutely insurmountable will do no good either. Hillary lost a significant number of points because of pneumonia, it's not inconceivable that she gets the flu before next Sunday, and undecided voters, being idiots generally, think that she's too unhealthy to be president.

If someone told me there was a 5% chance that if I got in a car it would crash, I'd be really hesitant about driving. Even PEC pegs a Trump presidency at 14% right now, and even 14% is way to far from 0 for comfort.

Double edit:
I'm going to be super honest here, the fact that everyone here is treating a Clinton presidency as not only extremely likely, but inevitable is making me arzy more than people arzying. I'm gonna bow out.

Qwazes fucked around with this message at 04:51 on Oct 3, 2016

lozzle
Oct 22, 2012

by zen death robot

That poll is pre-debate dude.

Night10194
Feb 13, 2012

We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

The biggest sign she's winning right now is that loving Rasumussen has her up.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

Bushiz posted:

Best case scenario, we are entering the finale of the 1812 Overture that is the election, and the Alicia Machado thing is just the first thing to fly out of the recently cracked oppo folder

And the last and cruelest of the demons in it... was Hope.

Mr Interweb
Aug 25, 2004

Serrath posted:

Because Trump's concerns about his taxes has always been about giving people a means to access his net worth. That has always been the most explosive thing in the taxes (to him); even when he was accused of not paying taxes before the actual returns were released, he never really offered a defense to this. Say something that suggests he isn't worth $10 billion, though, and he immediately flips out and goes on the attack.

What is important to Trump is based on a different metric than what is important to the voters. If someone had offered a hypothetical deal with him before this leak where he could agree to concede to the voting public that he has paid no taxes ever in exchange for never having to reveal his returns or reveal how much he is worth, I bet he'd take that deal in a heartbeat and think he got off lightly.

To <us>, his tax rate is probably the most explosive thing in there and the "worst" secret is probably leaked already. But he's going to continue to resist calls to release them because, <to him>, they''re still hiding the secret he treasures most.

It's just a little weird that he's still trying to hide the tax rate since he constantly brags that being able to pay as little as possible is what makes him a brilliant businessman.

Covok
May 27, 2013

Yet where is that woman now? Tell me, in what heave does she reside? None of them. Because no God bothered to listen or care. If that is what you think it means to be a God, then you and all your teachings are welcome to do as that poor women did. And vanish from these realms forever.
If anyone wants to aryz, apparently assange is still doing the drop. Just not on a balcony. I guess he was afraid someone was going to shoot him?

Islam is the Lite Rock FM
Jul 27, 2007

by exmarx
He's such an attention whore.

ImpAtom
May 24, 2007

Covok posted:

If anyone wants to aryz, apparently assange is still doing the drop. Just not on a balcony. I guess he was afraid someone was going to shoot him?

He wanted people to pay more attention to it.

Night10194
Feb 13, 2012

We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

He's just trying to make it more dramatic for the conspiracy crowd.

What I'm wondering is why more post-debate polls weren't released this weekend. I thought a bunch were due.

Islam is the Lite Rock FM
Jul 27, 2007

by exmarx

Night10194 posted:

He's just trying to make it more dramatic for the conspiracy crowd.

What I'm wondering is why more post-debate polls weren't released this weekend. I thought a bunch were due.

I wanna say they were scrapped as the NYT just took a fat steamer on Trump's face.

KiteAuraan
Aug 5, 2014

JER GEDDA FERDA RADDA ARA!


GreyjoyBastard posted:

And the last and cruelest of the demons in it... was Hope.

Yeah, he's a pretty bad character in most battle lineups. Better to replace him with Sazh or Vanille depending on the circumstances.

GalacticAcid
Apr 8, 2013

NEW YORK VALUES
so who's excited for all the trump costumes this halloween

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!



Mr Interweb posted:

It's just a little weird that he's still trying to hide the tax rate since he constantly brags that being able to pay as little as possible is what makes him a brilliant businessman.
I imagine the core concern is that people could realize he's paying nearly no taxes - which he could brag about - on something that is merely in the tens of millions in terms of actual personal wealth that isn't sunk into a building or a loan from a Russian mobster - which he couldn't. If Trump's personal fortune is in the neighborhood of "won Powerball" instead of "yuge, luxurious," he loses his entire image.

Samurai Sanders
Nov 4, 2003

Pillbug
Reading examples of tweets Trump has made about taxes in the past I didn't realize just how much he has berated people for not paying enough, as well as direct claims that he pays more taxes than anyone.

Yeah...I am starting to see why this tax thing might be more meaningful than anything so far.

Ciaphas
Nov 20, 2005

> BEWARE, COWARD :ovr:


Do we know who leaked the taxes to NYT?

Islam is the Lite Rock FM
Jul 27, 2007

by exmarx
Turns out he's the biggest welfare king of them all.

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005

Ciaphas posted:

Do we know who leaked the taxes to NYT?

No.

Mel Mudkiper
Jan 19, 2012

At this point, Mudman abruptly ends the conversation. He usually insists on the last word.

Ciaphas posted:

Do we know who leaked the taxes to NYT?

it was me

Night10194
Feb 13, 2012

We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

Samurai Sanders posted:

Reading examples of tweets Trump has made about taxes in the past I didn't realize just how much he has berated people for not paying enough, as well as direct claims that he pays more taxes than anyone.

Yeah...I am starting to see why this tax thing might be more meaningful than anything so far.

Also, Americans know the rich get to game the system. We know. But we really don't like having it shoved in our faces or bragged about. Look at Romney; the poo poo he did with his taxes was all legal and normal for a rich guy and it still hurt him. Trump? Trump got these tax breaks for his personal income because he tanked a bunch of businesses (and as one CNN article pointed out, we don't know if the 900+ million loss was entirely his own fortune or lots of 'other peoples' money' stuff that left others holding the bag) and hosed over his employees. A reminder that a rich guy loving up gets him 18 years off paying taxes doesn't make most Americans happy.

lozzle
Oct 22, 2012

by zen death robot

Ciaphas posted:

Do we know who leaked the taxes to NYT?

Not a clue. Suspects so far include:

Somebody at the IRS.
The accountant who verified the tax return.
Marla Maples.
Somebody on his campaign staff.
Barack Obama?

GalacticAcid
Apr 8, 2013

NEW YORK VALUES
The 47% speech is even funnier thinking about how Mitt trotted the Welfare King himself out there to campaign for him.

Bushiz
Sep 21, 2004

The #1 Threat to Ba Sing Se

Grimey Drawer
news outlets love taxes because it let's them bring like twenty experts on to pontificate at roundtables endlessly, and since there's no clear endpoint of the conversation, they can talk forever. It's the political version of MH370.

Night10194
Feb 13, 2012

We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

Bushiz posted:

news outlets love taxes because it let's them bring like twenty experts on to pontificate at roundtables endlessly, and since there's no clear endpoint of the conversation, they can talk forever. It's the political version of MH370.

They can also keep citing that the overwhelming majority of Americans want him to release the drat returns. It's like needling Hillary over her press conferences: Either they get a story about how he won't do the thing or he does the thing and it becomes a big story.

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Islam is the Lite Rock FM
Jul 27, 2007

by exmarx

lozzle posted:

Not a clue. Suspects so far include:

Somebody at the IRS.
The accountant who verified the tax return.
Marla Maples.
Somebody on his campaign staff.
Barack Obama?

Vince Foster?

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