USPOL Oct: Trumpelthinskin's spinning wheel: spinning hot takes into gold

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USPOL Oct: Trumpelthinskin's spinning wheel: spinning hot takes into gold

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iospace: Jan 19, 2038

theflyingorc posted:

holy poo poo you're stupid

Obama had fantastic young people outreach, what happened in 2010?

You're completely unable to separate how much you like Bernie from what would happen if he were the nominee, it's literally amazing

Tea Party wave + racists getting riled up + religious right getting all fiesty about same-sex marriage.

# ? Oct 5, 2016 19:01

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# ? May 20, 2024 12:15

computer parts: Nov 18, 2010; PLEASE CLAP

gradenko_2000 posted:

This entire thread knows that midterms tend to be awful for Democrats, and I can't imagine that that knowledge is limited to this thread only.

So why are they still consistently awful?

Does the DNC just not try hard enough?
Do their GOTV and campaigning strategies just not work?
Is congressional gerrymandering just that bad?

The only difference is how many young people turn out to vote.

This is about to spark a massive argument about how the Democrats are a bunch of shills even though this has been a known phenomenon since today's 65 year olds were in college. It's just a known phenomenon that young people only care about the President, not their local Congressman.

You can tell because those same voters who (e.g.) voted in 2008 but not 2010 come back and vote in 2012.

computer parts fucked around with this message at 19:06 on Oct 5, 2016

# ? Oct 5, 2016 19:01

Goatman Sacks: Apr 4, 2011; by FactsAreUseless

The year is 2018. There has been a government shutdown for 2 years now. President Sanders' goals of renaming post offices has been run into the ditch due to congressional obstruction. His only hope: appeal to his base again. He has a massively televised speech, where he brings every bit of ammo to the table and throws every thing he has at the wall. Then his base doesn't turn out because in the last two years they graduated college and stopped smoking pot.

# ? Oct 5, 2016 19:01

ImpAtom: May 24, 2007

mcmagic posted:

You are really dumb if you think this. It's probably a waste of money but it terms of doing actual harm, it's not even 1/1,000,000th as harmful as the rest of the far right's agenda.

In a world where Bernie Sanders could win the presidency, he could keep his voters more mobilized than what we know is going to happen when Hillary wins. She's going to take office already being underwater with most of the democratic base and that isnt a great way to win midterms. But keep laughing because it's so funny.

If only Hillary Clinton was a spouse abuser then it wouldn't matter apparently.

After all it doesn't matter if you're electable if you abused your spouse, right?

# ? Oct 5, 2016 19:02

theflyingorc: Jun 28, 2008; ANY GOOD OPINIONS THIS POSTER CLAIMS TO HAVE ARE JUST PROOF THAT BULLYING WORKS; Young Orc

gradenko_2000 posted:

This entire thread knows that midterms tend to be awful for Democrats, and I can't imagine that that knowledge is limited to this thread only.

So why are they still consistently awful?

Does the DNC just not try hard enough?
Do their GOTV and campaigning strategies just not work?
Is congressional gerrymandering just that bad?

The average Democrats aren't motivated by duty the way Republicans are, and so you can only get them to come out for the exciting presidential elections.

"Voting is a civic duty" works really well on Republicans.

# ? Oct 5, 2016 19:02

Quorum: Sep 24, 2014; REMIND ME AGAIN HOW THE LITTLE HORSE-SHAPED ONES MOVE?

gradenko_2000 posted:

This entire thread knows that midterms tend to be awful for Democrats, and I can't imagine that that knowledge is limited to this thread only.

So why are they still consistently awful?

Does the DNC just not try hard enough?
Do their GOTV and campaigning strategies just not work?
Is congressional gerrymandering just that bad?

Several of the demographics the Dems rely on, including lower-income workers and young voters, simply don't turn out in the reliable numbers that olds and evangelicals terrified of the gay abortions do. There have been entire papers, nay, entire books written about the reasons for this phenomenon, but it boils down to the Republicans have demographics which are a decreasing share of the population but which typically turn out reliably, while the Democrats are solidifying their demographic majority but see a sharp drop-off in non-presidential years.

# ? Oct 5, 2016 19:03

Filthy Hans: Jun 27, 2008; by Fluffdaddy
(and can't post for 10 years!)

gradenko_2000 posted:

This entire thread knows that midterms tend to be awful for Democrats, and I can't imagine that that knowledge is limited to this thread only.

So why are they still consistently awful?

Does the DNC just not try hard enough?
Do their GOTV and campaigning strategies just not work?
Is congressional gerrymandering just that bad?

A small but significant phenomenon is that, when a new president can't realize all of their campaign goals in under two years, some people will feel disillusioned and lose motivation to vote for the party in midterms, "meet the new boss, same as the old boss" etc.

# ? Oct 5, 2016 19:04

A Winner is Jew: Feb 14, 2008; by exmarx

Filthy Hans posted:

A small but significant phenomenon is that, when a new president can't realize all of their campaign goals in under two years, some people will feel disillusioned and lose motivation to vote for the party in midterms, "meet the new boss, same as the old boss" etc.

This is more pronounced with younger voters as well, which is why mcmagic's claims about Sanders somehow having a better "base" for 2018 loving laughable.

# ? Oct 5, 2016 19:05

BI NOW GAY LATER: Jan 17, 2008; So people stop asking, the "Bi" in my username is a reference to my love for the two greatest collegiate sports programs in the world, the Virginia Tech Hokies and the Marshall Thundering Herd.

gradenko_2000 posted:

This entire thread knows that midterms tend to be awful for Democrats, and I can't imagine that that knowledge is limited to this thread only.

So why are they still consistently awful?

Does the DNC just not try hard enough?
Do their GOTV and campaigning strategies just not work?
Is congressional gerrymandering just that bad?

There's a lot of reasons. The DNC hasn't been great about creating the resources needed and also recruiting talent for mid terms. Democratic voters are statisitically less likely to vote in mid-terms (this is a pretty complex issue itself.)

Congressional gerrymandering and voter suppression are things that are Real and Bad.

# ? Oct 5, 2016 19:06

Party Plane Jones: Jul 1, 2007; by Reene; Fun Shoe

Quorum posted:

Several of the demographics the Dems rely on, including lower-income workers and young voters, simply don't turn out in the reliable numbers that olds and evangelicals terrified of the gay abortions do. There have been entire papers, nay, entire books written about the reasons for this phenomenon, but it boils down to the Republicans have demographics which are a decreasing share of the population but which typically turn out reliably, while the Democrats are solidifying their demographic majority but see a sharp drop-off in non-presidential years.

To put this in perspective, the national party rolls for the GOP and Democratic Parties are ~31 million and ~46 million respectively. That's a lot of Democratic voters not turning up at the polls.

# ? Oct 5, 2016 19:07

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

The most basic reason is that midterms are significantly older and whiter than Presidential elections. Old whites are much more Republican than the country at large.

Get young people and especially hispanics to vote in midterms and it would be more reflective of the general electorate. Lots of people just don't care about their congressman the way they care about Presidents.

# ? Oct 5, 2016 19:09

Endorph: Jul 22, 2009

GalacticAcid posted:

If you're a leftist disappointed in Clinton you should be working to either 1) help with close Congressional and Senate races so that she doesn't have the opportunity to make ugly compromises with a GOP congress, 2) engage in direct action on behalf of a non-electoral pressure group like Black Lives Matter, Planned Parenthood, anti-war groups, etc, 3) unionize your workplace and those of others or 4) (editor's note: this is the best one that will help the US Left the most) shitpost about Bernie Sanders in USPol for days and days so we get to read Bi Now Gay Later, fishmech, and computer parts make the same posts they've been making for the past literal year.

# ? Oct 5, 2016 19:09

Instant Sunrise: Apr 12, 2007; The manger babies don't have feelings. You said it yourself.

A Winner is Jew posted:

In just the house Democrats fell off by about 2.5 million votes from 2006 in 2010.

Republicans gained over 9 million votes from 2006 to 2010.

That's way less of an issue with the democratic base not turning out (although young people that were enthusiastic for Obama left him at the alter in 2010) than it is for republicans being wiped into a frenzy over their hatred of Obama.

i agree with this, but it's more complex.

the congressional democrats spent 1996-2000 slowly chipping away at the 94 "republican revolution," only so have a lot of that work get undone with the 2002 and 2004 elections with people campaigning on national security. but by bush's second term and after katrina, it was pretty obvious that his white house was a dumpster fire and everybody ran as far away from bush as possible

in 2006 the republicans knew that bush was a sinking ship and were really pissed about his temporary guest worker program, and despite people like hannity crowing pretty much daily that not voting in the mid-terms would lead to the horror scenario of "speaker of the house pelosi" none of them really bothered to show up to the polls in 2006. and the democrats were able to ride that wave into the house and senate.

in 2010 you pretty much had it right, fear of a black president and the republican base being really upset that they lost and that everything wasn't about them.

# ? Oct 5, 2016 19:10

Dexo: Aug 15, 2009; A city that was to live by night after the wilderness had passed. A city that was to forge out of steel and blood-red neon its own peculiar wilderness.

The Dems need to build a warchest the next two years and spend like a presidential election year amount of money at GOTV in 2018.

They need to find some way to motivate people to come out.

# ? Oct 5, 2016 19:10

BI NOW GAY LATER: Jan 17, 2008; So people stop asking, the "Bi" in my username is a reference to my love for the two greatest collegiate sports programs in the world, the Virginia Tech Hokies and the Marshall Thundering Herd.

computer parts posted:

The only difference is how many young people turn out to vote.

This is about to spark a massive argument about how the Democrats are a bunch of shills even though this has been a known phenomenon since today's 65 year olds were in college. It's just a known phenomenon that young people only care about the President, not their local Congressman.

You can tell because those same voters who (e.g.) voted in 2008 but not 2010 come back and vote in 2012.

It's not just young people -- it's minorities and poor people (plenty of overlap there) -- and it's not because they don't always know there's an election -- but because off-year elections tend to be much harder to vote in.

If I ruled the world, there would be no off-cycle elections (governor's races being held on years where there are no other races, for example.)

# ? Oct 5, 2016 19:11

WampaLord: Jan 14, 2010

Dexo posted:

The Dems need to build a warchest the next two years and spend like a presidential election year amount of money at GOTV in 2018.

They need to find some way to motivate people to come out.

Sadly, I don't think money will help. A whole lot of people refuse to understand that midterm elections are important.

# ? Oct 5, 2016 19:12

Endorph: Jul 22, 2009

i guarantee you that if sanders was president, everyone would hate him within a year because none of the changes he promised had immediately happened

# ? Oct 5, 2016 19:12

computer parts: Nov 18, 2010; PLEASE CLAP

BI NOW GAY LATER posted:

It's not just young people -- it's minorities and poor people (plenty of overlap there) -- and it's not because they don't always know there's an election -- but because off-year elections tend to be much harder to vote in.

If I ruled the world, there would be no off-cycle elections (governor's races being held on years where there are no other races, for example.)

I think controlling for age there's actually not too much racial disparity. I don't know about income level though.

# ? Oct 5, 2016 19:12

Dexo: Aug 15, 2009; A city that was to live by night after the wilderness had passed. A city that was to forge out of steel and blood-red neon its own peculiar wilderness.

WampaLord posted:

Sadly, I don't think money will help. A whole lot of people refuse to understand that midterm elections are important.

If you spend enough money you can pump ads to promote voting in all of these states. But yeah that sucks.

# ? Oct 5, 2016 19:13

mcmagic: Jul 1, 2004; If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

ImpAtom posted:

If only Hillary Clinton was a spouse abuser then it wouldn't matter apparently.

After all it doesn't matter if you're electable if you abused your spouse, right?

This post is pretty removed from anything I've been actually been saying here...

# ? Oct 5, 2016 19:13

BI NOW GAY LATER: Jan 17, 2008; So people stop asking, the "Bi" in my username is a reference to my love for the two greatest collegiate sports programs in the world, the Virginia Tech Hokies and the Marshall Thundering Herd.

computer parts posted:

I think controlling for age there's actually not too much racial disparity. I don't know about income level though.

There typically is -- minority voters (who typically are lower income and don't get off for off-year elections as easily as general elections) have historically lower mid-term turnouts. Off-year elections also tend to have shorter hours, less early voting, etc etc which can effect turn out by people working shift work (e.g., largely lower income)

https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/race/news/2014/11/06/100627/why-young-minority-and-low-income-citizens-dont-vote/

Though as a counter point, I think 538 said that trend seemed to be changing in 2014's mid-terms.

# ? Oct 5, 2016 19:14

iospace: Jan 19, 2038

https://twitter.com/KatyTurNBC/status/783730869416505344

# ? Oct 5, 2016 19:18

Mel Mudkiper: Jan 19, 2012; At this point, Mudman abruptly ends the conversation. He usually insists on the last word.

so man mcmagic got tagged too

# ? Oct 5, 2016 19:19

Eggplant Squire: Aug 14, 2003

But Hannity says that teleprompters are for cool guys now.

# ? Oct 5, 2016 19:19

Alec Bald Snatch: Sep 12, 2012; by exmarx

theflyingorc posted:

The average Democrats aren't motivated by duty the way Republicans are, and so you can only get them to come out for the exciting presidential elections.

"Voting is a civic duty" works really well on Republicans.

a bunch of them have no clue there's midterm elections

# ? Oct 5, 2016 19:21

iospace: Jan 19, 2038

https://twitter.com/Timodc/status/776151888471392257
https://twitter.com/Timodc/status/783733063771496448
ALL THESE drat MILLERS :argh:

# ? Oct 5, 2016 19:23

emdash: Oct 19, 2003; and?

as if to answer Pence saying there's too much discussion of institutional racism in policing: http://www.myajc.com/news/news/state-regional/ga-deputy-fired-for-racist-facebook-posts-targetin/nskWb/

quote:

A white Georgia sheriff�s deputy has been terminated and another white officer abruptly resigned following an internal affairs investigation that uncovered racist and sexist messages they sent each other on Facebook, including one that described what appeared to be an effort to target black motorists.

The two officers � both former McIntosh County sheriff�s deputies � served on the department�s special traffic unit that patrols I-95 in South Georgia. The two officers sent offensive jokes back and forth through the Facebook�s messaging service and used texting shorthand �lol� to indicate laughter.

One joke referred to �colored people� and another used the word �n�� ,� according to records reviewed by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

Another showed an image of Martin Luther King Jr. and denigrated his most famous speech.

�I have a dream. That one day my people will not act like animals,� posted Brant Gaither, the McIntosh deputy who was terminated July 25.

continues at the link

# ? Oct 5, 2016 19:24

30 TO 50 FERAL HOG: Mar 2, 2005

is there any real reason to even have midterms? why not just sync everyone up on the same 4 year schedule?

# ? Oct 5, 2016 19:24

ImpAtom: May 24, 2007

emdash posted:

as if to answer Pence saying there's too much discussion of institutional racism in policing: http://www.myajc.com/news/news/state-regional/ga-deputy-fired-for-racist-facebook-posts-targetin/nskWb/

continues at the link

In a just world "Gosh, why do we even have to bring up institutionalized racism?!" would be heralded far and wide as the worst thing Pence said at the debate.

# ? Oct 5, 2016 19:25

iospace: Jan 19, 2038

BiohazrD posted:

is there any real reason to even have midterms? why not just sync everyone up on the same 4 year schedule?

Constitution. I forget the original logic behind it though.

# ? Oct 5, 2016 19:26

Alec Bald Snatch: Sep 12, 2012; by exmarx

BiohazrD posted:

is there any real reason to even have midterms? why not just sync everyone up on the same 4 year schedule?

article 1 section 2 of the constitution

# ? Oct 5, 2016 19:26

WampaLord: Jan 14, 2010

BiohazrD posted:

is there any real reason to even have midterms? why not just sync everyone up on the same 4 year schedule?

I really wish we could, because it would probably mean the end of a GOP controlled Congress in short order.

# ? Oct 5, 2016 19:27

boy are my arms tired: May 10, 2012; Ham Wrangler

Mel Mudkiper posted:

so man mcmagic got tagged too

he already reverted it to whatever picture he had handy on his desktop, don't you worry

wouldn't want the thread to know constantly that he wished a carbomb would kill people

# ? Oct 5, 2016 19:27

boner confessor: Apr 25, 2013; by R. Guyovich

BiohazrD posted:

is there any real reason to even have midterms? why not just sync everyone up on the same 4 year schedule?

its pretty difficult to elect people to 2 year house rep terms every 4 years but that might actually improve congress's efficiency so i say lets go for it

# ? Oct 5, 2016 19:27

Mel Mudkiper: Jan 19, 2012; At this point, Mudman abruptly ends the conversation. He usually insists on the last word.

boy are my arms tired posted:

he already reverted it to whatever picture he had handy on his desktop, don't you worry

wouldn't want the thread to know constantly that he wished a carbomb would kill people

Lame, and I didn't even say racism and sexism were the only reasons to hate Hillary :colbert:

# ? Oct 5, 2016 19:28

JerikTelorian: Jan 19, 2007

So, Benghazi is brought up all the time by the anti-Hillary crowd, but I've never seen any justification or argument about it, they just say "Benghazi". Do people have an actual narrative for why it is her fault, or is it just that she happened to be on the same planet when it occurred?

Like, I don't feel like any rational person blamed GWB for 9/11; it's not his fault a bunch of terrorists did what they did. I just want to know if the anti-Hillary camp has any coherent justification at all.

# ? Oct 5, 2016 19:29

Shrecknet: Jan 2, 2005

On Terra Firma posted:

My fiance is Chinese and holy gently caress this set her off. It's so insanely racist and offensive that I cannot wrap my mind around how anyone could say otherwise.

Do note that "Kung Fu Fighting" is playing in the background. The only way this could be more racist is if he wore a rice paddy hat and used his fingers to slant his eyes.

# ? Oct 5, 2016 19:29

A Winner is Jew: Feb 14, 2008; by exmarx

BiohazrD posted:

is there any real reason to even have midterms? why not just sync everyone up on the same 4 year schedule?

congress > president > senate > supreme court in order from closest to the electorate to furthest away, and it's baked into what their duties are and how long their terms are.

This was to keep things that the country needed but maybe people didn't like from being overruled by the whims of popular opinion.

# ? Oct 5, 2016 19:29

BI NOW GAY LATER: Jan 17, 2008; So people stop asking, the "Bi" in my username is a reference to my love for the two greatest collegiate sports programs in the world, the Virginia Tech Hokies and the Marshall Thundering Herd.

BiohazrD posted:

is there any real reason to even have midterms? why not just sync everyone up on the same 4 year schedule?

House elections and splitting senate races up.

# ? Oct 5, 2016 19:29

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# ? May 20, 2024 12:15

canepazzo: May 29, 2006

A two-fer:

https://twitter.com/KevinMKruse/status/783735808155119616
https://twitter.com/evale72/status/783735979492466692

Don't call them deplorables though! That's offsides!

# ? Oct 5, 2016 19:30

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USPOL Oct: Trumpelthinskin's spinning wheel: spinning hot takes into gold

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