Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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Grouchio: Aug 31, 2014

A bunch of former ISIS militants are probably going to be returning to Europe after their state collapses. I would then expect terrorist attacks to multiply in Europe as a result, continuing the current nationalist trend. I wonder when this will happen.

# ? Feb 10, 2017 21:29

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# ? May 19, 2024 00:13

Dr Kool-AIDS: Mar 26, 2004

WarpedNaba posted:

You'd think with the way things are going, he'd have run the gently caress out by now.

Where would he go? Nowhere's safe, and the more he moves the greater chance there is that someone will figure it out and bomb the gently caress out of him.

Grouchio posted:

A bunch of former ISIS militants are probably going to be returning to Europe after their state collapses.

They'll try. Getting out isn't as easy anymore as getting in was. Plus governments will be looking for them back home too.

Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 21:37 on Feb 10, 2017

# ? Feb 10, 2017 21:34

Bastaman Vibration: Jun 26, 2005

Randarkman posted:

3000 people you utter piece of poo poo. Also alot more than "just" 3000 people were killed, wounded and left homeless during the course of the fighting.

So what's the number of people killed/wounded/displaced that should trigger an overwhelming, violent intervention by the US? Asking for a friend.

# ? Feb 10, 2017 21:53

MechanicalTomPetty: Oct 30, 2011; Runnin' down a dream
That never would come to me

Didn't Baghdadi get hosed up in an air strike a few years back? It's entirely possible that he can't be safely moved anymore, at least not under his own power.

# ? Feb 10, 2017 22:11

Saladin Rising: Nov 12, 2016; When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

MechanicalTomPetty posted:

Didn't Baghdadi get hosed up in an air strike a few years back? It's entirely possible that he can't be safely moved anymore, at least not under his own power.

It's commonly thought that he got hosed up by an airstrike because he hasn't been seen on video for a couple years; he's still alive and releasing audio recordings, but the absence of a single picture or video is very conspicuous.

The thought is that he's been visually disfigured, rather than completely incapacitated. (Although if he's so incapacitated that he can't move under his own power, that would be loving great.)

# ? Feb 10, 2017 22:59

Volkerball: Oct 15, 2009; by FactsAreUseless

Saladin Rising posted:

It's commonly thought that he got hosed up by an airstrike because he hasn't been seen on video for a couple years

It's not just a shot in the dark speculation. A couple years ago rumors went around he was hit and was in critical condition from an airstrike that had targeted him that day, and everyone was talking about it. Nobody really seems to know what happened. Similar thing happened with Shishani but he died fairly quickly from his injuries.

# ? Feb 10, 2017 23:05

Dr Kool-AIDS: Mar 26, 2004

He supposedly fled Mosul in advance of its encirclement, so there's reason to believe he's capable of movement. Continually moving around is still dangerous in general, though he's also running out of safe places to hide.

# ? Feb 10, 2017 23:09

Volkerball: Oct 15, 2009; by FactsAreUseless

Sinteres posted:

He supposedly fled Mosul in advance of its encirclement, so there's reason to believe he's capable of movement. Continually moving around is still dangerous in general, though he's also running out of safe places to hide.

Moving around is probably safer than sitting still. Unless he's actually been chilling out in downtown Abbottabad this whole time.

# ? Feb 10, 2017 23:09

Shageletic: Jul 25, 2007

Saladin Rising posted:

Holy crap, the SDF are like 5 KM away from Raqqa:
https://twitter.com/A7_Mirza/status/830052532152102913

Other stuff:
https://twitter.com/abdullahawez/status/830106232283357187

Interesting times at State. Largely out of loop of the WH, their supervisory chain of command decimated, maybe its giving them a little more excuse for more of an independent type of role than in previous administrations, at least until Tillerson (who has no experience in govt) starts putting his flunkies into the org. But right now State is almost subversive when it comes to US politics.

# ? Feb 10, 2017 23:46

Shageletic: Jul 25, 2007

uh ok, jihad inc. why not, Syria already has everything else

quote:

Heavily armed and expertly kitted with body armor and ballistic helmets, the men can be seen defending bunkers, storming buildings, and even posing by whiteboards giving tactical lessons. Though the titles of these YouTube videos are written in Russian Cyrillic, their background music is an a cappella Islamic chant known as a nasheed, which is often used by extremist groups in propaganda films. But the men are no ordinary jihadis. They are members of Malhama Tactical, the world�s first jihadi private military contractor (PMC) and consulting firm.

Malhama Tactical isn�t an enormous military conglomerate like the infamous Blackwater (now named Academi). It consists of 10 well-trained fighters from Uzbekistan and the restive Muslim-majority republics of the Russian Caucasus. But size isn�t everything in military consulting, especially in the era of social media. Malhama promotes its battles across online platforms, and the relentless marketing has paid off: The outfit�s fighting prowess and training programs are renowned among jihadis in Syria and their admirers elsewhere. It helps that until now the group has specialized its services, focusing on overthrowing Bashar al-Assad�s regime and replacing it with a strict Islamic government.

The group�s leader is a 24-year-old from Uzbekistan who goes by the name Abu Rofiq (an Arabic pseudonym that means father of Rofiq). Little is known about him other than that he cycles through personal social media accounts rapidly, using fake names and false information to throw off surveillance efforts. In virtually every video and photo posted online, he wears a scarf or balaclava to cover his face from the nose down, leaving visible only his narrow dark eyes and long, somewhat tangled, pitch-black hair. He speaks fluent Russian, but with a slight Uzbek accent.

Since launching in May 2016, Malhama has grown to do brisk business in Syria, having been contracted to fight, and provide training and other battlefield consulting, alongside groups like the al Qaeda-affiliated Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (formerly known as the Nusra Front) and the Turkistan Islamic Party, a Uighur extremist group from China�s restive Xinjiang province. And despite recent rebel setbacks in Syria, including the loss of Aleppo, demand for Malhama Tactical�s services in the country is as strong as ever, Abu Rofiq told Foreign Policy in an interview conducted over the messaging app Telegram.

But he is also beginning to think about expanding elsewhere. His group is willing to take work, Abu Rofiq says, wherever Sunni Muslims are oppressed. He cites China and Myanmar as places that would benefit from jihad. He also suggests that Malhama Tactical might go back to its roots, returning to fight in the North Caucasus against the Russian government.

In November, the group placed job ads on Facebook looking for instructors with combat experience to join the group. The ad described the outfit as a �fun and friendly team� looking for recruits who are willing to �constantly engage, develop, and learn� and work with Jabhat Fateh al-Sham. It even specified that instructors were privy to benefits like vacation time and one day off a week from jihad. The wording was more befitting of a Fortune 500 company than a group of extremists fighting in a brutal and bloody war. Jihad went global long before Malhama Tactical, but rarely with so entrepreneurial a spirit.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/02/10/the-world-first-jihadi-private-military-contractor-syria-russia-malhama-tactical/

# ? Feb 11, 2017 00:39

Cease to Hope: Dec 12, 2011

Shageletic posted:

uh ok, jihad inc. why not, Syria already has everything else

https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/02/10/the-world-first-jihadi-private-military-contractor-syria-russia-malhama-tactical/

capitalism coopts everything

# ? Feb 11, 2017 00:42

Junkyard Poodle: May 6, 2011

Where is Kyoon's release from Syria in the thread? Rough page number

# ? Feb 11, 2017 05:21

Volkerball: Oct 15, 2009; by FactsAreUseless

Junkyard Poodle posted:

Where is Kyoon's release from Syria in the thread? Rough page number

Caro.

https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3390388&pagenumber=2442&perpage=40#post458456229

# ? Feb 11, 2017 05:25

Junkyard Poodle: May 6, 2011

Volkerball posted:

Caro.

https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3390388&pagenumber=2442&perpage=40#post458456229

Thanks for the clarification and page goonsir

# ? Feb 11, 2017 05:27

Cease to Hope: Dec 12, 2011

Volkerball posted:

Caro.

https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3390388&pagenumber=2442&perpage=40#post458456229

holy poo poo, Caro survived?

I know I'm way late to this but that blows my loving mind

# ? Feb 11, 2017 06:17

MRC48B: Apr 2, 2012

It blew everybodies mind. Death is a pretty attractive alternative to a stay in a torture prison. Even if you are crazy already.

# ? Feb 11, 2017 06:23

Brother Friendship: Jul 12, 2013

Cease to Hope posted:

holy poo poo, Caro survived?

I know I'm way late to this but that blows my loving mind

He actually wrote an account of what happened to him but I couldn't find the link. I never read past the first part, not even sure if there's more of it, but it would likely interest you.

# ? Feb 11, 2017 06:29

Volkerball: Oct 15, 2009; by FactsAreUseless

Brother Friendship posted:

He actually wrote an account of what happened to him but I couldn't find the link. I never read past the first part, not even sure if there's more of it, but it would likely interest you.

pretty sure he stopped writing at the point where he was captured

# ? Feb 11, 2017 06:34

Flavahbeast: Jul 21, 2001

I still hold out hope that one day Kyoon will be freed

# ? Feb 11, 2017 07:12

WarpedNaba: Feb 8, 2012; Being social makes me swell!

Kyoon's probably already been freed.

Of this mortal coil.

# ? Feb 11, 2017 11:07

Dusty Baker 2: Jul 8, 2011; Keyboard Inghimasi

Somebody just got shot at the protests outside the green zone in baghdad by security forces, poo poo is sorta going the tear gas/live ammunition route right now

# ? Feb 11, 2017 12:09

MiddleOne: Feb 17, 2011

Dusty Baker 2 posted:

Somebody just got shot at the protests outside the green zone in baghdad by security forces, poo poo is sorta going the tear gas/live ammunition route right now

Oh no

# ? Feb 11, 2017 12:11

Thug Lessons: Dec 14, 2006; I lust in my heart for as many dead refugees as possible.

John Dolan posted a good takedown of Roy Gutman's hit piece on the YPG on facebook. Applies to most of the crocodile tears you'll hear about them in general as well.

quote:

More Gutman. (Feel free to skip. I feel like I have to do this; doesn't mean you have to read it.)

Gutman's article is rhetorically interesting, in a horrible way; it's not meant to be read. The point is the headline and the impression of moral equivalency it leaves: "See, the SDF/YPG is just as bad!"
This is the lazy, convenient take from the article--the take Gutman and The Nation want you to have: "IS, Jabhat Fateh ash-Sham, the SAA, Hezbollah, and the SDF are all the same."
There are Sunni sectarian militias not only selling women as slaves and massacring unbelievers but boasting about it, and trying to outdo each other in atrocity. We've seen so many of those horror stories they're old news by now. And Gutman's headline is meant to convince you that the SDF is the same kind of outfit.

But that's wildly, utterly false--even if you read the article and accept every one of its claims.

Most of those who see it on social media will not read it. You all know the game as well as I do: you find an article with a headline supporting your bias, put it up on Twitter or FB, and dare everybody who isn't on your side to come back at you. Most of them won't take that dare, so you win.

It helps if you know nothing about irregular war and assume that all war is either Gettysburg, with a hands-off-civilians rule, ("good" war) or Mad Max, with no rules at all.
Nice, easy view. Totally wrong, and very dangerous. There are irregular groups who compete for nightmare creds, like IS; there are others who strive far harder than most "conventional" armies and especially air forces to play by certain rules. Not the same rules as Gettysburg--irregular groups can't play by those rules--but the best rules they can make under circumstances most first-worlders can't even imagine.

So--has the SDF committed any sectarian massacres? No, not even according to this article. Has it slaughtered villages for speaking the wrong language, then? No, not even according to Gutman. Has it said aloud (as the leaders of most of the Sunni militias have done) that everyone must accept its ideology, leave, or die? No.

Gutman claims that the YPG/J has expelled villagers from their houses and even demolished or burned those houses. That's possible, though people I know who are serving with the YPG/J deny it absolutely.
When an irregular force occupies a village or town dominated by hostile factions, it has limited options. Faced by harassment sniping or collusion with the former rulers among inhabitants, the irregular force can, and usually does, simply kill those it suspects. The SDF doesn't do that, as even Gutman implicitly admits.

So, faced with implacable ethnic or sectarian enmity (or, as usual in Syria, both), the SDF may (or may not) have expelled suspects from occupied villages. That may not be Geneva Rules, but by the standards of irregular war, let alone, MY loving GOD, the standards of Syria over the last four years, it's the mildest reaction possible.

Gutman claims that the YPG/J has also colluded iwith the Assad regime to divide up parts of the country, notably Hasakah. Very possible. Again, standard multi-faction war behavior. And very siensible, too, since until recently there was a little problem called Islamic State that called for collusion, a damned sight more collusion than actually occurred.

Gutman then implies that this collusion proves that the SDF is a creature of the Assad regime. What. Utter. Crap. The guy needs to watch Game of Thrones, if he can't do any more serious historical research in the pattern of endless treachery which defines these wars. Assad's people hate the SDF; their defenders on social media never fail to sneer at the SDF's good reputation, and call people like me "Rojava-heads" while vowing to reconquer every inch of Syria. Who do you think that claim was aimed at? This collusion was cynical, temporary, and perfectly standard for irregular war.

What Gutman's claims imply is loathing for irregular war as such. Let's suppose it's all true; the SDF has expelled villagers who opposed its control, even burned their homes. It has killed its enemies by "assassination" rather than (I suppose Gutman means) in noble, face-to-face combat.
If the SDF's tactics are illegitimate, you're delegitimizing all irregular war. You're describing tactics practiced by every irregular leader from Collins to Mandela. You have NOT found evidence of matters which are considered atrocities by legitimate irregular groups, such as enslavement, sectarian murder, forced conversion, massacre of prisoners.

That last one, "massacre of prisoners," is the most significant. If you know irregular war, you know that groups can't afford to keep POWs in nice neat camps. So most of the time, they try to trade them, or kill them outright. Killing of prisoners has been pretty well documented among most groups in the Syrian War. There's no evidence, no claim even by Gutman, that it's been carried out by the SDF.

If all non-Gettysburg war is illegitimate, then be an honest Quaker, not a bombing enthusiast like Gutman. To decry the tactics of irregular militias by way of advocating high-tech bombing campaigns is just smug imperial crap.

Which brings us to a last point: Gutman's treatment of the PKK. He has three things to say about the PKK:

1. They're considered by some countries as a terrorist group.
2. They may be funded by Iran (though his proof here is weak).
3. They're the same as the SDF.

Well (sighs), this has been too long already, so for brevity's sake let's stipulate all three. In which case--so what? Since when do I take the US's childishly tendentious classifications of groups as "terrorist" or not as Gospel? And since when does Iranian involvement--as opposed to Saudi, Qatari, Turkish, Israeli, British, or US involvement--constitute proof of evil? Insurgents take help where they can get it. And if the PKK/SDF distinction is a fiction--again, so what? This demonization of the pKK, which Gutman seems to think will stand unquestioned, is the weird flip side of his affected horror at irregular-warfare tactics. While he's horrified at guerrilla behavior, he does not mention--NOT ONCE--the treatment of the Kurds in Turkey as just maybe having anything to do with the rise of the PKK. I've talked to Turks who grew up in the Southeast, watching Kurdish kids' bodies dragged behind M113s. The co-mayors of Diyarkabir are in prison now for supporting a Kurdish party. It wasn't even legal to call yourself a Kurd, or speak Kurdish, in Turkey, until recently.

None of that bothers Gutman at all. Actually ,he may not even know it. He doesn't seem very bright. But as so often in these cases, I'm hazy on where stupid leaves off and filthy intervention-promoting Clintonite propagandist begins.

Sorry this has been so long. Felt like I had to do something. Oh, and Dear The Nation: You should be loving ashamed.

https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=1784959735160927&id=100009407541064

# ? Feb 11, 2017 18:35

steinrokkan: Apr 2, 2011; Soiled Meat

Turkey and SAA have closed up all the roads to al Bab, so perhaps the Three Stooges-esque charade that has been Euphrates Shield will finally come to a conclusion. Hell, before it started I would have said Turkey with its modern army could have cleaned the house in Syria if they wanted just a little bit, but now they have turned themselves into a laughing stock. Good job, Erdogan.

# ? Feb 11, 2017 21:37

Dr Kool-AIDS: Mar 26, 2004

steinrokkan posted:

Turkey and SAA have closed up all the roads to al Bab, so perhaps the Three Stooges-esque charade that has been Euphrates Shield will finally come to a conclusion. Hell, before it started I would have said Turkey with its modern army could have cleaned the house in Syria if they wanted just a little bit, but now they have turned themselves into a laughing stock. Good job, Erdogan.

Turkey's all over the map on what the next step is. One second they're talking about Euphrates Shield being over after the capture of Al-Bab, the next they're ranting about the SDF capturing Raqqa being a national security issue for them and shelling Efrin and Manbij. I hope they're just posturing with some meaningless pot shots on the way out and that Russia and the US can rein in their more aggressive impulses. Barring that, I wish the YPG all the best.

# ? Feb 11, 2017 22:10

Darkman Fanpage: Jul 4, 2012

Dusty Baker 2 posted:

Somebody just got shot at the protests outside the green zone in baghdad by security forces, poo poo is sorta going the tear gas/live ammunition route right now

Five. Along with two Iraqi security forces. The protestors are supporters of al-Sadr. Poor Shiites from Baghdad's slums tired of being used as cannon fodder in the fight against ISIS but not seeing any reform from the government.

# ? Feb 11, 2017 22:14

Goatse James Bond: Mar 28, 2010; If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

Darkman Fanpage posted:

Five. Along with two Iraqi security forces. The protestors are supporters of al-Sadr. Poor Shiites from Baghdad's slums tired of being used as cannon fodder in the fight against ISIS but not seeing any reform from the government.

All of this has happened before, and all of this will happen again.

# ? Feb 12, 2017 05:06

EmpyreanFlux: Mar 1, 2013; The AUDACITY! The IMPUDENCE! The unabated NERVE!

steinrokkan posted:

Turkey and SAA have closed up all the roads to al Bab, so perhaps the Three Stooges-esque charade that has been Euphrates Shield will finally come to a conclusion. Hell, before it started I would have said Turkey with its modern army could have cleaned the house in Syria if they wanted just a little bit, but now they have turned themselves into a laughing stock. Good job, Erdogan.

Erdogan could have never suspected that gutting the command structure of your military and filing it full of sycophants and toadies would have any negative consequences, because never before in history have such similar circumstances occurred. Ever.

# ? Feb 12, 2017 06:56

Dante80: Mar 23, 2015

Speaking of Turkey..

quote:

Turkey aims to produce long-range missiles
http://www.defensenews.com/articles/turkey-aims-to-produce-long-range-missiles

ANKARA, Turkey � Turkey�s state-controlled missile-maker Roketsan is developing a long-range ground-to-ground missile and weapons system, the country�s procurement office has announced on its website.

The Undersecretariat for Defense Industries, or SSM, said that �deliveries continue on in line with the program�s timetable.� But SSM did not say if the deliveries were prototypes or the systems, dubbed �Bora.� SSM did say the systems are required by the Turkish Land Forces.

An SSM official familiar with the program would not comment on the status of Project Bora, but said the end goal of the program is to earn capabilities to design, perform qualification and progress into serial production of the Bora system.

Security analysts say Turkey would eventually aim to produce ground-to-ground missiles with a range of up to 1,000 kilometers.

Some of the foreign capitals falling within that range if a missile is fired from Turkey include Damascus, Baghdad, Tehran, Tel Aviv, Cairo, Belgrade, Athens, Kiev and Budapest.

�If Turkey makes verifiable progress in its �offensive� [ground-to-ground] long-range missile system, this will inevitably have repercussions in the region. Some of the countries that feel politically and militarily threatened by Turkey would seek ways to develop or buy systems that would intercept the Turkish system. Secondly, they may seek ways to develop or buy their own offensive systems, sparking a kind of missile race within this very turbulent region," a security analyst said.

In 2016, Turkey�s top procurement official and SSM chief Ismail Demir said Turkey might develop �offensive� missile systems in addition to its plans to build a long-range air and anti-missile defense system. He said the efforts to develop offensive missiles were meant to improve deterrence capabilities.

The word at the grapevine is that Roketsan has been working from 2009 to make this Bora-B class missile. Some analysts are talking about a licensing of the DF-15B SRBM.

The also say that some missiles are already delivered, and that during the coup last summer there was a lot of drama circulating around them.

# ? Feb 12, 2017 12:48

Dante80: Mar 23, 2015

Also, Al-Bab seems to be in great shape!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jTDMVuHWHQg

_{for Stalingrad standards}

# ? Feb 12, 2017 13:12

Dr Kool-AIDS: Mar 26, 2004

The SDF has the saddest looking tank I've ever seen.

https://twitter.com/AfarinMamosta/status/830850604209692673

# ? Feb 12, 2017 20:02

Bohemian Nights: Jul 14, 2006; When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today; Clapping Larry

Lots of conflicting reports out of al-bab and surroundings today. First the FSA claimed to have captured both Bza'a and Qabisin again but it seems like they got a little ahead of themselves and either lost control or never pushed IS forces entirely out, because they've pulled back to the outskirts of the towns again. Can't be long now, though, all roads to the area have been cut off and SAA forces are now a mere kilometer away in the south.

Sinteres posted:

The SDF has the saddest looking tank I've ever seen.

https://twitter.com/AfarinMamosta/status/830850604209692673

we advance wars now boys

# ? Feb 12, 2017 20:05

RoyKeen: Jul 24, 2007; Grimey Drawer

Sinteres posted:

The SDF has the saddest looking tank I've ever seen.

https://twitter.com/AfarinMamosta/status/830850604209692673

That thing is adorable.

# ? Feb 12, 2017 20:13

Communist Zombie: Nov 1, 2011

Sinteres posted:

The SDF has the saddest looking tank I've ever seen.

https://twitter.com/AfarinMamosta/status/830850604209692673

Wouldnt that properly be a tankette and not a tank? :spergin:

# ? Feb 12, 2017 20:24

Thug Lessons: Dec 14, 2006; I lust in my heart for as many dead refugees as possible.

Looks like a converted excavator of some sort. I'm surprised they'd convert one because they're really useful and the YPG loves building earthen fortifications. Maybe it's salvage.

# ? Feb 12, 2017 20:25

lollontee: Nov 4, 2014; Can't post for 10 years!

Sinteres posted:

The SDF has the saddest looking tank I've ever seen.

https://twitter.com/AfarinMamosta/status/830850604209692673

Except it's chibi :kimchi:

# ? Feb 12, 2017 20:27

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Sinteres posted:

The SDF has the saddest looking tank I've ever seen.

https://twitter.com/AfarinMamosta/status/830850604209692673

WALL-E sequel looking great, 10 points Pixar!

It's still hard to overcome the Bob Semple tank, NZ DIY at its best

quote:

The designers based it on an American tractor tank, but the problem was that they had no blueprints, no building materials outside those found in a farm and no idea what the hell they were doing. They literally designed the Bob Semple by looking at a postcard of the original tank.

Nenonen fucked around with this message at 20:51 on Feb 12, 2017

# ? Feb 12, 2017 20:47