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Geriatric Pirate posted:How about you tell me under which measures of well-being Macedonia, Bulgaria and Albania are better off than Greece? Your argument was that countries poorer than Greece would have to bail Greece out. So please explain how these countries you have listed would be the ones bailing out Greece. Which mechanisms would be involved?
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Feb 22, 2017 15:48
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GaussianCopula posted:Re: GDP PPP - you don't get to cite that when your country is overly expensive because of over-regulation and debt fueled inflation. You don't get to discount opposing arguments just because they are made on a different ideological basis than yours.
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Feb 22, 2017 17:05
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Cat Mattress posted:Your argument was that countries poorer than Greece would have to bail Greece out. So please explain how these countries you have listed would be the ones bailing out Greece. Which mechanisms would be involved? Stop dodging, I was (at first) responding to your ridiculous post where you seemed to suggest that people were unfairly comparing Greece to countries like Yemen or Sudan. Greece is unquestionably richer than its neighbours. Ardennes posted:Also, only 1 of their neighbors is actually apart of the EU and Bulgaria isn't even part of the EFSF (European Financial Stability Facility) either. So yeah Greece is doing better than Albania, Macedonia (errr.... "FYROM") and Turkey, but does that matter at all? Greece is also doing better than Moldova too. (gently caress, and I don't think anyone in this thread is actually proposing helping those countries either especially not those Turks.) That might be the case now, at the time of the bailouts things may have been different. And anyway, I'm still not sure why a country that's roughly as wealthy as another country, and a 5-10 years ago was significantly poorer, should be compelled to help. At least on grounds of Greece's poverty. I also googled Estonian pensions vs Greek pensions, which basically highlights what this crisis is about : The average Estonian pension is about 4000 euros per year, in Greece it's over 10000. The two countries produce roughly the same level of output per person (GDP). http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Social_protection_statistics_-_pension_expenditure_and_pension_beneficiaries
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Feb 22, 2017 17:09
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Fiction posted:You don't get to discount opposing arguments just because they are made on a different ideological basis than yours. Granted, his makes even less sense than that considering I am not Greek or is there any reason for him to think I am Greek. Moreover, Greece is part of the Eurozone, so monetary inflation should be a relative non-factor. Even if he had proof that "regulation and debt" made the cost of living higher (I really would not give him the benefit of the doubt about that either), it doesn't change the fact that the cost of living is what it is and that relative wages of Greece is basically at the bottom with Latvia. That said, I don't think Greece is really the critical factor here but basically the basic communicated idea that "no one ever deserves sympathy" not the Greeks, not Latvians, not the Albanians or the Syrians. I am not even being that moralistic about that either, but rather that is more or less what is being clearly communicated. Geriatric Pirate posted:That might be the case now, at the time of the bailouts things may have been different. And anyway, I'm still not sure why a country that's roughly as wealthy as another country, and a 5-10 years ago was significantly poorer, should be compelled to help. At least on grounds of Greece's poverty. How is Greece being richer than its neighbors a useful point when none of them are part of the Eurozone? Wait why is the fact these countries were poorer in the past a reason for denying Greece a bailout now? Is Latvia an important tripping point considering they are a tiny part of the EFSF? Should the entire facility be frozen until only the country in question is at the absolute bottom? If Greece falls a little bit until it is just under Latvia, are all bets off? Also Estonia's pensions are so comparatively low because they are rooted in the old Soviet system, and are dangerous low. Moreover not only were many Greek pensions were already cut to the bone, but make up the primary income for 52% of households. Also, I guess throw out different costs of living since purchasing power in Estonia is considerably higher. But sure, lets say cut them to $3999 euros, would that be enough for Greece to qualify for a bailout? If Greek was undoubtedly poorer in every category, even compared to former Soviet states would be that enough? Is there an actual bottom here or is it just a complete distraction? (I will cut to the chase it is the latter.) Ardennes fucked around with this message at 18:02 on Feb 22, 2017 |
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Feb 22, 2017 17:21
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Ardennes posted:monetary inflation should be a relative non-factor. Maybe you should look up fiscal inflation, which is debt related.
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Feb 22, 2017 17:44
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Geriatric Pirate posted:Stop dodging, I was (at first) responding to your ridiculous post where you seemed to suggest that people were unfairly comparing Greece to countries like Yemen or Sudan. Greece is unquestionably richer than its neighbours. Turkey and Macedonia are equally ridiculous comparisons as Yemen and Sudan. Greece is an Eurozone country and should be compared with Eurozone countries only.
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Feb 22, 2017 17:50
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Bayrou's decided not to run and has endorsed Macron: http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2017/02/what-does-fran-ois-bayrous-endorsement-emmanuel-macron-mean-frenchquote:François Bayrou, the leader of the centrist Democratic Movement and a candidate for the French presidency in 2007 and 2012, has endorsed Emmanuel Macrons bid for the presidency. Love that Mélenchon quote at the end. LemonDrizzle fucked around with this message at 17:57 on Feb 22, 2017 |
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Feb 22, 2017 17:55
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GaussianCopula posted:Maybe you should look up fiscal inflation, which is debt related. Yeah and part of fiscal inflation is control over independent monetary policy which is a non-factor in Greece. The idea behind fiscal inflation is that you run up a debt, and then inflation occurs as the government expands the monetary supply in order to cover it. However, it isn't a readily accepted piece of economic thought and also it isn't applicable here. The more orthodox explanation is that prices in Greece are sticky, and that despite lower wages, businesses still have plenty of sunk costs they can't lower. Moreover, Greece is still reliant on a large number of imports from the rest of the EU (which are not going to fluctuate in price) but has no currency of its own to protect its own domestic industries. Demand for imports can be lower (and it is), but prices for imports will always remain inflexible and so will the domestic prices for those goods. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 18:07 on Feb 22, 2017 |
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Feb 22, 2017 17:59
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This is literally everything about contemporary European civilization.
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Feb 22, 2017 18:20
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so that means I can be a cheapskate and post about posting instead of having some wit or spending any more on comedy avs for people. Which I'm also incapable of. Comedy.
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Retarded Goatee posted:This is literally everything about contemporary European civilization. It's also true. If that poo poo actually kept the sun rising every single day, I would be on board with human sacrifice too.
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Feb 22, 2017 18:25
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Retarded Goatee posted:This is literally everything about contemporary European civilization. It really is. It even includes that condescending shoulder grasp of your old racist uncle trying right after they say "the world isn't fair", apparently forgetting they inherited their
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Feb 22, 2017 18:28
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orange sky posted:I love, love the argument that the NL has less work hours because there's a lot of people with part times - hey, you dipshits, maybe that's because they can live with a part time job and that's actually a very big difference from the other countries! That is why i mentioned the female labour participation rate. When people live together typically the man works fulltime and the woman chooses to work less (not my assertion, source is the Dutch central bureau of statistics). Based on the female labour participation rate for Greece it seems that it is more common for the woman there to not work at all. Appearently because the economy is somewhat hostile to part time work (this does not seem the case for Portugal which has a high female labour participation rate as well). Technically we could raise our average hours worked if all part timers just quit tommorow and all couples started living on a single income. If you see Dutch people work 30 hour a week on average you should be mindful that this is a lot of couples where the man works 36 hours and the woman 24. Unless you have a very well paying job you aren't going to have a very fun time living on a part time job if you are single anymore than if you lived in Portugal on €200 a month.
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Feb 22, 2017 19:32
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Holy poo poo bunch of crabs in a bucket in this thread Jesus christ
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Feb 22, 2017 21:35
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Retarded Goatee posted:This is literally everything about contemporary European civilization. Fukuyamaism is the new black.
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Feb 22, 2017 22:00
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I gotta say, most couples here in Portugal would be in the poverty line if one of them worked a part time. If you can't realize that that is definitely 100% a quality of life improvement I don't know what to tell you. And don't try to tell me that all the people registered as part time are actually "secretly" working even more than 40 weekly hours because that's bullshit and if it's not, you're evading taxes/regulations (or only your company is and in that case that's nothing to be proud of and you should be trying to change it) and you're as bad as those drat greeks.
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Feb 22, 2017 23:48
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orange sky posted:I gotta say, most couples here in Portugal would be in the poverty line if one of them worked a part time. If you can't realize that that is definitely 100% a quality of life improvement I don't know what to tell you. And don't try to tell me that all the people registered as part time are actually "secretly" working even more than 40 weekly hours because that's bullshit and if it's not, you're evading taxes/regulations (or only your company is and in that case that's nothing to be proud of and you should be trying to change it) and you're as bad as those drat greeks. Clearly the solution is to spend less on survival and more on making the economy viable. What do you mean that will kill you? Haven't you heard of fiscal responsibility?
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Feb 23, 2017 02:34
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Cat Mattress posted:Turkey and Macedonia are equally ridiculous comparisons as Yemen and Sudan. Greece is an Eurozone country and should be compared with Eurozone countries only. Slovakia then. Or Slovenia. Or Lithuania. Or Latvia. e: in fact literally the entirety of Eastern Europe and depending on which measure you use Portugal too.  That's not to say that the German government shouldn't be more flexible towards Greece. Perhaps if SPD is elected (a big if) things might change. But it is worth remembering that it's not only Germany pushing against further Greek bailouts (and by extension austerity), far from it. They are just the most populous and influential to the point where they could conceivably swing the opinion to a more interventionist position. Casting the whole country as the ultimate European evil reminds me of how tankies view the US. There are quite a few governments in the EU which are more rightwing than Germany's (including Tess's native UK). Private Speech fucked around with this message at 05:55 on Feb 23, 2017 |
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Feb 23, 2017 05:21
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orange sky posted:I gotta say, most couples here in Portugal would be in the poverty line if one of them worked a part time. If you can't realize that that is definitely 100% a quality of life improvement I don't know what to tell you. And don't try to tell me that all the people registered as part time are actually "secretly" working even more than 40 weekly hours because that's bullshit and if it's not, you're evading taxes/regulations (or only your company is and in that case that's nothing to be proud of and you should be trying to change it) and you're as bad as those drat greeks. That definitely happens in some professions. Teachers on a 32 hour week have 26 contact hours, officially having to do all preparation and test checking in the remaining 6. For caretakers travel time between patients isn't always counted as work. Some companies just don't care about the amount of hours you actually work, but have a time amount budgeted per task. If you fail to live up to the times and complain about it, your half year contract won't get renewed. Not surprisingly this tends to happen in the shittier jobs. For a double university educated couple the ability to work part time is indeed amazing. You have both money and the free time to spend it. For blue collar jobs it really sucks, because guess what? You are on the poverty line now. Jobs that used to be 38 hrs/week on a permanent contract fifteen years ago are now 24 on a half year temp contract. Not surprisingly it makes people adverse to handing over money to foreigners living in a vacation destination they can no longer visit. It has little to do with how hard working southern Europeans really are and more with disliking mandatory charity when you are already being squeezed for money.
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Feb 23, 2017 09:36
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you feelin fucky posted:That definitely happens in some professions. Teachers on a 32 hour week have 26 contact hours, officially having to do all preparation and test checking in the remaining 6. For caretakers travel time between patients isn't always counted as work. Some companies just don't care about the amount of hours you actually work, but have a time amount budgeted per task. If you fail to live up to the times and complain about it, your half year contract won't get renewed. Not surprisingly this tends to happen in the shittier jobs. I understand the mentality even though I completely disagree with it and think it goes against European values. Regardless of that, everything you said in your first paragraph also applies to Portuguese/Greek workers but only with more work hours. That's what I'm getting at.
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Feb 23, 2017 10:39
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orange sky posted:I understand the mentality even though I completely disagree with it and think it goes against European values. I have no doubt southern europeans make longer office hours than dutch. I used to hear a lot that a lot from my greek colleagues who were surprised a 38 hour work week only meant 40-45 in practice. They were also surprised we got things done in that time, but that's a different story. But let's not pretend "part time jobs for everyone, whether they like it or not" is a 100% a quality of life improvement. edit: and I don't mean the greeks were slacking off during office hours either. they were legit surprised you could work out a deal with a troublesome sub-contractor or file for a government permit in a half a workday. you feelin fucky fucked around with this message at 12:00 on Feb 23, 2017 |
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Feb 23, 2017 11:33
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you feelin fucky posted:I have no doubt southern europeans make longer office hours than dutch. I used to hear a lot that a lot from my greek colleagues who were surprised a 38 hour work week only meant 40-45 in practice. They were also surprised we got things done in that time, but that's a different story. But let's not pretend "part time jobs for everyone, whether they like it or not" is a 100% a quality of life improvement. Yes, I think that that is the crux of the point here - there needs to be bureaucratical and structural change in Greece, even they know that. But no one can achieve that without investment or at least some help. I was always amazed at how the Troika gave us (Portugal) a ton of money and all they'd do was e-mail counseling and some visits - if I handed out that kind of money I'd make drat sure the country got help - help from specialized legal teams from other countries, consultancy regarding bureaucracy and digitally processing that same bureaucracy instead of having a paper trail, stuff like that. But it's more like "lol you need to get rid of this, thanks". Now, there might have been suggestions regarding this and Portugal might have not accepted them because our MPs need their own lawyer's firms to make money, so I'll grant them that. We are stupidly corrupt and that is, in my opinion, still the largest problem. I see no mechanism to help us in that, though, because while this kind of corruption isn't as rampart in other EU countries, it still does exist. The Netherlands is kind of a touchy subject for me, that's why I might have come off as aggressive when in fact after visiting some (admittedly not a lot) cities I'd definitely choose Amsterdam over anywhere else. The problem I have with the country is the fact that all big companies in Portugal pay taxes in the NL - it annoys me that this happens. And I don't think the solution is to lower our company tax, but to create some kind of small range that applies to all the EU countries.
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Feb 23, 2017 14:05
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Private Speech posted:Casting the whole country as the ultimate European evil reminds me of how tankies view the US. There are quite a few governments in the EU which are more rightwing than Germany's (including Tess's native UK). Germany are not the ultimate European evil. The Bible of Austerity is.
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Feb 23, 2017 14:09
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orange sky posted:is the fact that all big companies in Portugal pay taxes in the NL - it annoys me that this happens. And I don't think the solution is to lower our company tax, but to create some kind of small range that applies to all the EU countries. It annoys us more socialist-minded Dutchies too. The Netherlands is a tax haven and it is a thing here that many corporations have their 'headquarters' in Amsterdam or Rotterdam which is literally an unmanned postbox so they can pay the lower tax rates. Even that is not enough so the real big companies make deals directly with the government like with Starbucks.
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Feb 23, 2017 14:14
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orange sky posted:Yes, I think that that is the crux of the point here - there needs to be bureaucratical and structural change in Greece, even they know that. But no one can achieve that without investment or at least some help. There was a "Task Force for Greece" that was supposed to do the kind of job there that you're talking about here, but it was not very effective. Or rather, it may have achieved successes of the kind that only get noticed by people who pay really close attention to policy and public administration (i.e. nerds like me). The task force got folded into an overall EU "Structural Reform Support Service", somewhat understandably because Syriza resented the idea of a country-specific task force . The EU has also made several attempts to help Greece create a national cadastre that foundered. So this sort of help is available, but getting member states to accept it is another matter. Outside of programs involving conditionality, the EU really is not as good at getting member states to do what it wants as people think, and even measures that are part of the bailout programs can be ignored, delayed, or implemented only partially. But it's now clear that the Troika should have focused on stuff like this much more. Ardennes posted that Ardennes posted:The more orthodox explanation is that prices in Greece are sticky, and that despite lower wages, businesses still have plenty of sunk costs they can't lower. Moreover, Greece is still reliant on a large number of imports from the rest of the EU (which are not going to fluctuate in price) but has no currency of its own to protect its own domestic industries. Demand for imports can be lower (and it is), but prices for imports will always remain inflexible and so will the domestic prices for those goods. but the fault really is with the ridiculously overregulated product markets in Greece, which suffer from high barriers to entry, heavy state control, an inefficient regulatory framework, a lack of effective competition policy and antitrust enforcement, and of course corruption (source article). Reforming all this requires investment, time, and the importation of expertise, not budget cuts and tight deadlines. Price levels should have fallen along with the crash in the economy, and the failure to properly address this and instead concentrate strictly pushing austerity and forcing down wages alone is one of the many mistakes made by the Troika.
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Feb 23, 2017 14:44
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Namarrgon posted:It annoys us more socialist-minded Dutchies too. The Netherlands is a tax haven and it is a thing here that many corporations have their 'headquarters' in Amsterdam or Rotterdam which is literally an unmanned postbox so they can pay the lower tax rates. Even that is not enough so the real big companies make deals directly with the government like with Starbucks. I particularly enjoy seeing a spokesperson of the PvdA throwing out the usual litanies of "We can't actually tax corporations, imagine all the jobs we'd lose! Think about the effects it'll have on THE ECONOMY!" Meanwhile the VVD eagerly continues to slash into our healthcare and job security chanting "participatiemaatschappij".
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Feb 23, 2017 14:58
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Namarrgon posted:It annoys us more socialist-minded Dutchies too. The Netherlands is a tax haven and it is a thing here that many corporations have their 'headquarters' in Amsterdam or Rotterdam which is literally an unmanned postbox so they can pay the lower tax rates. Even that is not enough so the real big companies make deals directly with the government like with Starbucks. Ikea only operates one store directly: Ikea Delft. The rest are all officially franchises, who pay franchise fees to a (tax-free) charity promoting interior design. Take that sweden.  Pluskut Tukker posted:There was a "Task Force for Greece" that was supposed to do the kind of job there that you're talking about here, but it was not very effective. Or rather, it may have achieved successes of the kind that only get noticed by people who pay really close attention to policy and public administration (i.e. nerds like me). The task force got folded into an overall EU "Structural Reform Support Service", somewhat understandably because Syriza resented the idea of a country-specific task force . The EU has also made several attempts to help Greece create a national cadastre that foundered. So this sort of help is available, but getting member states to accept it is another matter. Outside of programs involving conditionality, the EU really is not as good at getting member states to do what it wants as people think, and even measures that are part of the bailout programs can be ignored, delayed, or implemented only partially. One of my greek friends used to help out the family business during summer. They arranged import licenses. Dad rented an office in the ministry's basement and son would walk around with the form, a cup of coffee and 20 euros. He offered the officials a "coffee break" in return for the necessary stamps. It was a full time job, but it shouldn't exist. This entire business model shouldn't exist.
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Feb 23, 2017 15:18
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Pluskut Tukker posted:but the fault really is with the ridiculously overregulated product markets in Greece, which suffer from high barriers to entry, heavy state control, an inefficient regulatory framework, a lack of effective competition policy and antitrust enforcement, and of course corruption (source article). Reforming all this requires investment, time, and the importation of expertise, not budget cuts and tight deadlines. Price levels should have fallen along with the crash in the economy, and the failure to properly address this and instead concentrate strictly pushing austerity and forcing down wages alone is one of the many mistakes made by the Troika. In all honesty, while those reforms may make Greece more competitive (it really depends on specifics) it would probably have relatively little effect on the cost of living itself. One thing is that most of the Eurozone is already ahead of Greece, so even if they closed the gap they would still be relatively noncompetitive. Moreover, it wouldn't really change sunk costs or the sticky prices associated with them. They may do a bit better, but at the end of the day as you say that continued austerity and the crushing weight of austerity would almost certainly win out. Also it is very difficult to impossible to stamp out corruption when you are also lowering state wages, if anything wage and benefit cuts incentives corruption. Ukraine is a good example of how little actually gets done even the country is under a military threat. Likewise further liberalizing the Labour market also has its own social costs as well.
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Feb 23, 2017 15:34
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JMolen posted:I particularly enjoy seeing a spokesperson of the PvdA throwing out the usual litanies of "We can't actually tax corporations, imagine all the jobs we'd lose! Think about the effects it'll have on THE ECONOMY!" It always depresses me when I have to explain to friends and family that I'm an Socialist Party member "but they're so left" and you have to point out again that Labour is an empty husk of neoliberalist thinking with some veneer of social liberalism.
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Feb 23, 2017 16:30
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Junior G-man posted:It always depresses me when I have to explain to friends and family that I'm an Socialist Party member "but they're so left" and you have to point out again that Labour is an empty husk of neoliberalist thinking with some veneer of social liberalism. Yes, that's the point. 
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Feb 23, 2017 16:55
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9-Volt Assault posted:Yes, that's the point. Don't I know it. I was merely trying to point out how tiresome it is to have to repeat oneself over and over again.
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Feb 23, 2017 17:01
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Junior G-man posted:Don't I know it. I was merely trying to point out how tiresome it is to have to repeat oneself over and over again. You are lucky. In Spain I bring it up and the first answer is "Oh so you like not having toilet paper like Venezuela!?". loving TV talking points, man.
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Feb 23, 2017 17:36
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https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/835145400889782272 I like the Mélenchon and Hamon voters who'd abstain in a Le Pen/Macron second round.
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Feb 24, 2017 16:16
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LemonDrizzle posted:https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/835145400889782272 How many really would though?
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Feb 24, 2017 17:37
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Lord of the Llamas posted:How many really would though? Not enough to affect the result, but enough to get the neoliberals screeching about how they were stabbed in the back by the perifidious left.
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Feb 24, 2017 17:42
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If only either of their candidates was more popular than Macron!
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Feb 24, 2017 19:37
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I still don't understand how Macron can be popular. Sure he's a bit younger than the average politician, but he's still a banker and he's still the brain behind the most unpopular law of the Hollande quinquennat, and he's still far from being as clever as he thinks he is. And, you know, this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KCk4Rg0EM_o
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Feb 24, 2017 19:53
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Cat Mattress posted:I still don't understand how Macron can be popular. Sure he's a bit younger than the average politician, but he's still a banker and he's still the brain behind the most unpopular law of the Hollande quinquennat, and he's still far from being as clever as he thinks he is. He's an empty shell on which everyone projects their own political ideals and aspirations, given an extremely favorable treatment in the media because he doesn't threaten big economic interests in any way, shape, or form. MEANWHILE: The inquiry on Fillion's embezzeling has moved to "information judiciaire" status!
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Feb 24, 2017 20:54
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LemonDrizzle posted:https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/835145400889782272 Thanks LemonDrizzle, I like you too.
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Feb 24, 2017 21:00
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you feelin fucky posted:Not just directed at you, but do people put a lot of faith in economic models? I did a lot of modelling and once or twice the same kind econometrists use. It would scare me if they did. Validation seemed almost absent in that field. You gonna have to be more specific about which models you wanna talk. There's models about all sorts of things. Econometrics is miles ahead of any other social science in technique and method, having pretty much the monopoly (and this includes non-social sciences) on causal inference techniques, thought on identification and endogeneity and structural modeling (the former two things are just now finding their way into Machine Learning, as well). I have worked with Sociologists (and I have refereed for their top journal) and they are not anywhere close. Oh and all those "fancy" dynamic panel models, discrete choice, newish diff-in-diffs, matching, GMMs and structural network models? Yeah, all developed in econometrics. Econometrica is the hardest journal to publish applied stats in. And political science basically replicates economics papers since forever anyway. As far as validation goes... econ has a higher replicability rate than Psychology, a literal experimental science. Let that sink in. But those are probably not the models you want to talk about I guess... You wanna talk about "Neoclassics" and "Keynes", right? About good old Macroecon. The truth is that the data in economics is poo poo. It's observational, not experimental, and extremely limited. You have one observation of one country per timepoint. What'ya gonna do now? You either be a timeseries guy, assume there's a nice stochastic process somewhere and calculate VARs, hoping there's enough variation in the data. Or, you do what "New Keynesians" do, models which for the most part are not even estimated but calibrated and simulated. That is also the reason why they could be like 98% accurate pre and post crisis (the older ones sometimes even beat more sophisticated, newer models), but total poo poo during. You can thank Lucas&Prescott for that philosophy basically. It's not wrong, but when no subfield in microeconomics claims to have many solid and unquestionable truths, then taking all that stuff and putting it in a Macro model is basically just ad hoc. And that's exactly how much stock people put into it. Yeah, as soon as we lived long enough in our economic framework to use econometric techniques for Macro analysis, we will be sure to come back to you. But are there solid economic models in general? Hell yes. Look at IO, look at experimental, behavioral, game theory and policy stuff. There's a nice paper where some economists implement a mechanism design based compensation scheme for salesforce, literally increasing revenue by millions (not billions of course) of dollars. Oh and by the way the only people who told you that the Euro was a really bad idea? Economists. Haramstufe Rot fucked around with this message at 19:47 on Feb 25, 2017 |
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Feb 24, 2017 21:10
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Flowers For Algeria posted:Thanks LemonDrizzle, I like you too. Reminder that LemonDrizzle was jizzing himself at the thought of left-wingers being forced to vote for Fillon to stop Le Pen. FWIW I'd abstain too in your sitch.
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Feb 25, 2017 01:33
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