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Leviathan
Oct 8, 2001

I hear the jury's
still out.. on science.
Fun Shoe

Addamere posted:

as an undergrad taking a political science course i once asked the professor why the us cannot just default on all its sovereign debt and the response was a mealymouthed wall of text about precedent and good faith and blah blah blah

and im like yo argentina defaulted and recovered from it just fine and they DIDN'T have the worlds largest economy and infrastructure and military and ability to bully the rest of the world into doing what they want to which he told me i did not understand the complexity

so someone here in cspam tell me complexity of what prevents big swinging dick us of a from just being like nah we dont owe u nerds poo poo wanna do something about it try it i will blow up this entire goddamned planet to spite you for it

i will have a mcskillet and a large chocolate shake please

if us defaults, treasury bond/note prices collapse, interbank lending collapses, and corporate ($10T), mortgage related ($9T), muni ($4T) bond market collapses. interest rates skyrocket, corporations and entire cities start defaulting. walmart et al. lays off 20+ million ppl. everyone loses their home. also entitlement spending and stimulative payment to federal employees stops. another few million people lose their jobs. massive recession and so on


ed balls loses job as well because europe collapses

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Grondoth
Feb 18, 2011

Addamere posted:

as an undergrad taking a political science course i once asked the professor why the us cannot just default on all its sovereign debt and the response was a mealymouthed wall of text about precedent and good faith and blah blah blah

and im like yo argentina defaulted and recovered from it just fine and they DIDN'T have the worlds largest economy and infrastructure and military and ability to bully the rest of the world into doing what they want to which he told me i did not understand the complexity

so someone here in cspam tell me complexity of what prevents big swinging dick us of a from just being like nah we dont owe u nerds poo poo wanna do something about it try it i will blow up this entire goddamned planet to spite you for it

i will have a mcskillet and a large chocolate shake please

The entire world economy basically lies on the fact that US debt is going to be worth the same as when you bought it. If that ever changes, not only do we lose the power we have by being the world's baseline safe investment, but the economy everywhere blows up.

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler

Leviathan posted:

if us defaults, treasury bond/note prices collapse, interbank lending collapses, and corporate ($10T), mortgage related ($9T), muni ($4T) bond market collapses. interest rates skyrocket, corporations and entire cities start defaulting. walmart et al. lays off 20 million ppl etc. also entitlement spending and stimulative payment to federal employees stops. another few million people lose their jobs. massive recession and so on


ed balls loses job as well because europe collapses

Wow I can't believe it's all Obama's fault

neutral milf hotel
Oct 9, 2001

by Fluffdaddy

Raskolnikov38 posted:

long term it should be possible to recover from the US defaulting but the question is do we survive the short term of literally upending the entire financial system

depends if we eat the rich in the short term or not...

Squizzle
Apr 24, 2008




Addamere
Jan 3, 2010

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Leviathan posted:

if us defaults, treasury bond/note prices collapse, interbank lending collapses, and corporate ($10T), mortgage related ($9T), muni ($4T) bond market collapses. interest rates skyrocket, corporations and entire cities start defaulting. walmart et al. lays off 20+ million ppl. also entitlement spending and stimulative payment to federal employees stops. another few million people lose their jobs. massive recession and so on


ed balls loses job as well because europe collapses

Grondoth posted:

The entire world economy basically lies on the fact that US debt is going to be worth the same as when you bought it. If that ever changes, not only do we lose the power we have by being the world's baseline safe investment, but the economy everywhere blows up.



so the investor class gets hosed all around the world and wal mart employees riot, i see nothing wrong with this

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
I tried making America great again but Obama and his leakin' appointees just rigged and blew up the economy, folks

Zerg Mans
Oct 19, 2006

Addamere posted:

so the investor class gets hosed and wal mart employees riot, i see nothing wrong with this

I know 1 walmart employee. She voted Trump.

Addamere
Jan 3, 2010

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

logikv9 posted:

I tried making America great again but Obama and his leakin' appointees just rigged and blew up the economy, folks

[Star Trek II Kirk] LIBERALS!!! :argh:

PIZZA.BAT
Nov 12, 2016


:cheers:


Addamere posted:

as an undergrad taking a political science course i once asked the professor why the us cannot just default on all its sovereign debt and the response was a mealymouthed wall of text about precedent and good faith and blah blah blah

and im like yo argentina defaulted and recovered from it just fine and they DIDN'T have the worlds largest economy and infrastructure and military and ability to bully the rest of the world into doing what they want to which he told me i did not understand the complexity

so someone here in cspam tell me complexity of what prevents big swinging dick us of a from just being like nah we dont owe u nerds poo poo wanna do something about it try it i will blow up this entire goddamned planet to spite you for it

i will have a mcskillet and a large chocolate shake please

i'll try to put this succinctly but it's kind of tough but anyways here goes:
  • all financial instruments are usually brokered with some sort of collateral. dealing with raw cash is a bad thing when you're dealing with very large amounts of money so contracts are usually traded with things considered to be extremely safe
  • the absolute safest investment vehicle is a us federal treasury bill (t-bill). the reason why is because it's extremely stable and guaranteed to be paid. it's literally impossible for the us fed to be in a position where they can't pay it since they can literally just print the money to pay it off. absolute worst case scenario is them doing this and leading to minor inflation in which case you wouldn't have been any better off holding other vehicles anyways, so the t-bill still wins
  • a big reason the '08 crash was so bad was because there literally wasn't enough federal debt. the amount of outstanding t-bills on the market wasn't enough for wall st to use as collateral for everything they were doing, so they had to search for other investments that were "almost" as safe. thus we got the tranches/distributed risk pools in the housing market for wall st. to use as collateral. side note: the giant irony of these instruments is they created the very risk they were counting on being impossible. that's a whole different discussion though
  • if the federal gov't slips on even a single payment then suddenly the t-bill loses its magical powers. the literal bed rock of our entire financial system is suddenly suspect and every single contract everywhere has to be re-analyzed under this new assumption. obviously if this happens without warning it's real easy for this to turn into a panic and obliterate the financial markets.
  • i want to emphasize that there's no real reason we would ever be unable to pay off the debt. we have total control of the currency the debt is denominated in. defaulting on the debt would be insanity- a willful suicide with absolutely no real justification.
  • republicans are insane so defaulting on the debt seems reasonable to them.
  • that's a bad thing

neutral milf hotel
Oct 9, 2001

by Fluffdaddy

Leviathan posted:

if us defaults, treasury bond/note prices collapse, interbank lending collapses, and corporate ($10T), mortgage related ($9T), muni ($4T) bond market collapses. interest rates skyrocket, corporations and entire cities start defaulting. walmart et al. lays off 20+ million ppl. everyone loses their home. also entitlement spending and stimulative payment to federal employees stops. another few million people lose their jobs. massive recession and so on


ed balls loses job as well because europe collapses

Good thing I sold off all my possessions to buy bitcoins. Your move, statists :smuggo:

Fuck You And Diebold
Sep 15, 2004

by Athanatos

Raskolnikov38 posted:

long term it should be possible to recover from the US defaulting but the question is do we survive the short term of literally upending the entire financial system

:thermidor:

Leviathan
Oct 8, 2001

I hear the jury's
still out.. on science.
Fun Shoe

Addamere posted:

so the investor class gets hosed all around the world and wal mart employees riot, i see nothing wrong with this

i guess if you define "investor class" as everyone who lives in a home or has any savings in a 401k/IRA, then yeah

radical meme
Apr 17, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Addamere posted:

much like a juniper bush



Yeah, I'm not putting a whole of stock into one TV performance by him but, he did a better job of explaining his position than any of the losers from the Republican Primary have done recently. 16 Republican losers and 1 Democrat got their rear end kicked by the piss goblin President; Tom Cotton couldn't do any worse.

Addamere
Jan 3, 2010

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Leviathan posted:

i guess if you define "investor class" as everyone who lives in a home or has any savings in a 401k/IRA, then yeah

my dude what if i told you most people who "live in a home" are renters and that most people dont have a loving 401k because they are poor service industry schmucks making a starvation wage

its really easy on a board full of middle class white men with office jobs that allow them to shitpost all day to think that your position in life is the average and anything you have a dime in would gently caress everyone but lol that is objectively wrong on so many levels

PIZZA.BAT
Nov 12, 2016


:cheers:


like i can't over-emphasize just how colossally stupid and insane defaulting on the debt would be. it would be suicide with absolutely zero upsides. the only way a sane person would do it is if they wanted to absolutely destroy everything. so basically baloogan or something

punchymcpunch
Oct 14, 2012



yes but you see when big daddy balances his checkbook sometimes he gotta tighten his belt

Fuck You And Diebold
Sep 15, 2004

by Athanatos
https://twitter.com/chicagotribune/status/840595004024377344

change my name
Aug 27, 2007

Legends die but anime is forever.

RIP The Lost Otakus.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yfCCwEf_J5A

sullat
Jan 9, 2012

punchymcpunch posted:

yeh i mean global depressions are actually sort of a big deal tho. it wouldnt rip a tear in the fabric of reality is all im sayin.

You ever been on a boat? If it sinks, nbd, there's lifeboats and life preservers and poo poo. Wouldn't be the end of the world. Unless instead of lifeboats, there's only pieces of paper that say, "bootstraps!"

Addamere
Jan 3, 2010

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

"Death is inevitable." :frogon:

jBrereton
May 30, 2013
Grimey Drawer
nobody knows what would really happen if the US properly not technically defaulted and it would be interesting.

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
listen i'm not a fan of accelerationism but i've found myself strapped into this loving hell-bound train and i'd just rather die now then speed along bashing through concrete walls for 4+ years

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler

Rex-Goliath posted:

like i can't over-emphasize just how colossally stupid and insane defaulting on the debt would be. it would be suicide with absolutely zero upsides. the only way a sane person would do it is if they wanted to absolutely destroy everything. so basically baloogan or something

so

bannon

Acelerion
May 3, 2005

Sweet, one free hour closer to death

radical meme
Apr 17, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Rex-Goliath posted:

like i can't over-emphasize just how colossally stupid and insane defaulting on the debt would be. it would be suicide with absolutely zero upsides. the only way a sane person would do it is if they wanted to absolutely destroy everything. so basically baloogan or something

I think you underestimate the stupidity of some members of Congress; also some talk radio personalities, like Master Shake.

Fuck You And Diebold
Sep 15, 2004

by Athanatos

Acelerion posted:

Sweet, one free hour closer to death

no you moron thats exactly how it doesnt work

Squizzle
Apr 24, 2008




radical meme posted:

Yeah, I'm not putting a whole of stock into one TV performance by him but, he did a better job of explaining his position than any of the losers from the Republican Primary have done recently. 16 Republican losers and 1 Democrat got their rear end kicked by the piss goblin President; Tom Cotton couldn't do any worse.

rubio also looks great if you only see him once and dont realize hes only capable of chinese room style policy statements

PIZZA.BAT
Nov 12, 2016


:cheers:


zegermans posted:

Levin isn't an idiot, he was deputy attorney general.. Limbaugh and Hannity are though, neither went to college and both majored in "my dad has a good paying job for me"

sean hannity went to college but dropped out to become a morning talk radio host

bastion of intellectual might- he is

Addamere
Jan 3, 2010

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

logikv9 posted:

listen i'm not a fan of accelerationism but i've found myself strapped into this loving hell-bound train and i'd just rather die now then speed along bashing through concrete walls for 4+ years

pfft look at this low energy loser who doesnt have the balls to be goku

GOKU SLAMMED THROUGH ROCK WALLS FOR LIKE TEN SEASONS FOR YOUR SINS BAKA

Baloogan
Dec 5, 2004
Fun Shoe

Rex-Goliath posted:

like i can't over-emphasize just how colossally stupid and insane defaulting on the debt would be. it would be suicide with absolutely zero upsides. the only way a sane person would do it is if they wanted to absolutely destroy everything. so basically baloogan or something

:3:

proof of concept
Mar 6, 2005

by FactsAreUseless

Rex-Goliath posted:

like i can't over-emphasize just how colossally stupid and insane defaulting on the debt would be. it would be suicide with absolutely zero upsides. the only way a sane person would do it is if they wanted to absolutely destroy everything. so basically baloogan or something

Look at how many unforced errors the trump administration has already made. Why should this one be any different?

sullat
Jan 9, 2012

logikv9 posted:

so

bannon

He worked for Goldman Sachs, though, he would never crash the world economy solely for his own advancement.

punchymcpunch
Oct 14, 2012



sullat posted:

You ever been on a boat? If it sinks, nbd, there's lifeboats and life preservers and poo poo. Wouldn't be the end of the world. Unless instead of lifeboats, there's only pieces of paper that say, "bootstraps!"

anyone who doesnt find a door to float on just didnt want it enough i guess

Addamere
Jan 3, 2010

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Acelerion posted:

Sweet, one free hour closer to death

time is just a clocktease tho, gonna yank that hour right back in six months

unless of course.... :unsmigghh:

Leviathan
Oct 8, 2001

I hear the jury's
still out.. on science.
Fun Shoe

Addamere posted:

my dude what if i told you most people who "live in a home" are renters and that most people dont have a loving 401k because they are poor service industry schmucks making a starvation wage

its really easy on a board full of middle class white men with office jobs that allow them to shitpost all day to think that your position in life is the average and anything you have a dime in would gently caress everyone but lol that is objectively wrong on so many levels

my dude renters (such as myself) would also be homeless because their landlords would default (since renters wouldn't be able to pay 3x their current rent to service their landlord's 22% interest note) and service industry workers would all be fired because no one needs restaurants in a depression. everyone gets hosed in a debt ceiling breach

Mariana Horchata
Jun 30, 2008

College Slice

zegermans posted:

Did you know cicadas don't even morph with mouths and have to gently caress before starving to death?

What the gently caress kind of life is that, 17 years suckling on a tree, and then die in a week.

sounds great! just show me where to sign

Addamere
Jan 3, 2010

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Leviathan posted:

my dude renters (such as myself) would also be homeless because their landlords would default (since renters wouldn't be able to pay 3x their current rent to service their landlord's 22% interest note) and service industry workers would all be fired because no one needs restaurants in a depression. everyone gets hosed in a debt ceiling breach

yes so like i said then the service industry workers (in my above statement, "walmart employees") riot

this is a good thing

they are hella exploited

eat the rich they are high

and also have some nutrients

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler

sullat posted:

He worked for Goldman Sachs, though, he would never crash the world economy solely for his own advancement.

i assume everything he's ever done were just stepping stones to destroy the world

remember that with brietbart he wanted the world to burn because that means higher readership

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UrbicaMortis
Feb 16, 2012

Hmm, how shall I post today?

Squizzle posted:

its been 15 years and im still down to relitigate this edition war mfers

The true answer to this argument is to play nWoD.

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