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Ice Phisherman posted:You're probably not going to get it. Trump and the republicans are not going to inspire confidence in big business with how they're acting right now. We're most likely looking at a mild to moderate recession sometime in the next four years. We're about due for one. There are a number of economic bubbles that may pop in the next two to four years. Eh, big business likes Republicans and it looks like they're moving ahead with the tax holiday for foreign profits and even Tim Cook would hug Trump for that. That said, if we don't have a recession or at least a losing year in stocks during Trump's one term, we'll be looking at one of the longest (if not the longest) periods of economic growth ever. Beating out even the Clinton boom years. So odds are strong we'll see at least some kind of economic disruption for reasons. And I know people will debate whether we've really had 8 years straight of economic growth because wages haven't really moved until recently. But you have to register growth by certain numbers and according to those things have been relatively good.
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Jun 3, 2017 22:45
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Big Business would be a good rapper name.
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Jun 3, 2017 22:46
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Krispy Kareem posted:It's far more likely the economy will boom under Trump. I'd be interested to see your source on this, as all analysis I've read suggests our expansion is getting near maturity.
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Jun 3, 2017 22:46
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Chilichimp posted:He'll just blame congress for not getting legislation passed to deregulate more. I hope he does blame the Republican Congress for not being able to pass a bloated reconciliation bill with 51% of the vote. That's not even economics, it's Civics 102.
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Jun 3, 2017 22:47
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Businesses were slightly optimistic at the start of Trumps term because they hoped that he'd be a stable generic Republican crony cutting taxes and leaving things well enough alone. Since he's proven himself to be a full on retarded crazy person businesses are worried. The economy is going to poo poo itself soon enough b
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Jun 3, 2017 22:48
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BougieBitch posted:To expand on this, the government is getting less income than anticipated this year, and when we bump up against the debt ceiling again it is going to have some really bad repercussions. Trump said some incredibly stupid poo poo that implies he would be totally fine with the government having to stop non-essential operations again- that is not the sort of thing that leads to economic growth. This sort of connects back to what we were talking about a few pages ago too, but any sort of wide reaching cuts in federal spending are going to have a chilling effect on growth. Having a Republican administration during what is likely the tail end of a recovery is... not awesome.
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Jun 3, 2017 22:48
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glowing-fish posted:I am really and truly confused. Please do not confuse New York City and New York State. New York State is a largely barren wasteland*, not a heavily populated interstate. *With some nice trees and occasional cute farmhouse.
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Jun 3, 2017 22:49
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So, functionally life imprisonment for protesting the president. A president who is doing his best to put himself and his allies above the law. Cool.
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Jun 3, 2017 22:51
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JAY ZERO SUM GAME posted:Big Business would be a good rapper name. I saw that Big Business was on Spotify and thought maybe there already was one but...  ...very much not the case
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Jun 3, 2017 22:53
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Hellblazer187 posted:I'd be interested to see your source on this, as all analysis I've read suggests our expansion is getting near maturity. The plans to allow offshore profits in at a reduced tax rate. I think 10% is the number going around. There's approximately a trillion dollars in profits sitting in overseas banks waiting to be brought back in. If even half of that is returned you're going to see a huge wave of corporate spending and mergers and acquisitions. You are right that we are overdue for a recession. Heck, I was certain the expansion was nearing its end two years ago. That hasn't happened, possibly because inflation has been too low to really heat up the economy. Wages are finally rising and energy costs are still low, so we will probably see faster growth over the next year or so. Of course, Trump can screw this up. He wants more influence over the Fed which would mean lower interest rates and faster growth to the point where poo poo starts to get real (I'm pretty sure that's an actual economic term).
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Jun 3, 2017 22:53
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Apoplexy posted:Also, back on the subject of Trump, Trumpkins, and other assorted murderers: https://mobile.twitter.com/itsmikebivins/status/871099079710953472 jesus loving christ. i honestly hope this gently caress gets his jaw shattered with a bat. loving nazi scum.
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Jun 3, 2017 22:55
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Something I've randomly noticed the past few days. Have you heard that theory about how the Mona Lisa isn't a painting of an actual woman, but possibly a feminized self portrait of DaVinci himself? Ivanka actually has a lot of Trump's facial features, just decidedly feminized. I can't not see it now.
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Jun 3, 2017 22:56
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Krispy Kareem posted:There's approximately a trillion dollars in profits sitting in overseas banks waiting to be brought back in. If even half of that is returned you're going to see a huge wave of corporate spending and mergers and acquisitions. One of the strangest issues facing the economy right now is that businesses aren't actually spending. What makes you think that an influx of money will change that when many of the businesses that are foregoing spending are already highly profitable?
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Jun 3, 2017 22:57
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Dapper_Swindler posted:jesus loving christ. i honestly hope this gently caress gets his jaw shattered with a bat. loving nazi scum. This is going to be the issue that starts the next civil war isn't it.
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Jun 3, 2017 22:58
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Krispy Kareem posted:The plans to allow offshore profits in at a reduced tax rate. I think 10% is the number going around. Tax holidays don't work. They don't create jobs, they're just a giveaway to large corporations. I don't know why we're even pretending that it would do anything - Bush tried the same thing and it had zero effect on job growth in America. We may as well be talking about the merits of trickle-down or cutting federal spending. Aves Maria! fucked around with this message at 23:01 on Jun 3, 2017 |
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Jun 3, 2017 22:59
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Krispy Kareem posted:The plans to allow offshore profits in at a reduced tax rate. I think 10% is the number going around. Obama for all of his faults kept the financial crisis from becoming worse. He went in with all of these grand ideas and promises and then the economy broke. That then became his number one priority and his focus is probably one of the biggest reasons why it wasn't worse than it was. However the safeguards that kept it from happening again were never put in place in a way that mattered. We learned nothing from it and are therefor doomed to repeat it in another ten to twenty years. Run on the banks used to be a common thing that happened back in the day and without proper safeguards we'll be back to twenty to thirty year cyclical boom and bust economies.
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Jun 3, 2017 23:01
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Aves Maria! posted:Tax holidays don't work. They don't create jobs, they're just a giveaway to large corporations. Didn't most of the Bush profit repatriation go to stock buy-backs and bonuses?
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Jun 3, 2017 23:03
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Bueno Papi posted:Didn't most of the Bush profit repatriation go to stock buy-backs and bonuses? Yeah. And, ironically, the companies who repatriated the most actually ended up cutting jobs.
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Jun 3, 2017 23:05
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Ice Phisherman posted:Obama for all of his faults kept the financial crisis from becoming worse. He went in with all of these grand ideas and promises and then the economy broke. That then became his number one priority and his focus is probably one of the biggest reasons why it wasn't worse than it was. However the safeguards that kept it from happening again were never put in place in a way that mattered. We learned nothing from it and are therefor doomed to repeat it in another ten to twenty years. Run on the banks used to be a common thing that happened back in the day and without proper safeguards we'll be back to twenty to thirty year cyclical boom and bust economies. Also post 2010 any stimulus plan got kneecapped by the GOP.
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Jun 3, 2017 23:06
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oh good, more using-vehicles-as-a-bludgeoning-weapon going on.
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Jun 3, 2017 23:07
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Captain Invictus posted:oh good, more using-vehicles-as-a-bludgeoning-weapon going on. Hoping it's another drunk and not political murder. The guy wasn't wearing a shirt, so it could be a drunk.
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Jun 3, 2017 23:08
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business hammocks posted:Hoping it's another drunk and not political murder. The guy wasn't wearing a shirt, so it could be a drunk. The article updated to say gunshots were reported, but I guess we'll have to see.
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Jun 3, 2017 23:10
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Darth Windu posted:Thanks man. Maybe trump was right to take us out, then. Granted it's the only thing he's been right on so far oh god, they're cross-polllinating
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Jun 3, 2017 23:10
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Aves Maria! posted:Yeah. And, ironically, the companies who repatriated the most actually ended up cutting jobs. Kinda makes sense. Now they have the capital to automate or outsource.
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Jun 3, 2017 23:11
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Paradoxish posted:It's also only showing states where bills have been introduced, which is completely meaningless. Let's compare two maps from that article: South Dakota, Michigan, and Vermont: "our voting access is exactly where it should be." 
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Jun 3, 2017 23:12
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kartikeya posted:of DaVinci To save you from pedantry later, some now. Saying DaVinci is like saying from Chicago.
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Jun 3, 2017 23:15
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BrandorKP posted:To save you from pedantry later, some now. Saying DaVinci is like saying from Chicago. Here let me save you from pedantry but piling on a big 'ol helping of worthless pedantry.
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Jun 3, 2017 23:18
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BrandorKP posted:To save you from pedantry later, some now. Saying DaVinci is like saying from Chicago. If your point was to say he should have a space between da and vinci, you didn't make that point very clear. If your point was something else, I'm genuinely mystified as to what it could be.
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Jun 3, 2017 23:20
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GreyjoyBastard posted:South Dakota, Michigan, and Vermont: "our voting access is exactly where it should be." Vermont brought us Bernie so I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt.
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Jun 3, 2017 23:20
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Paradoxish posted:One of the strangest issues facing the economy right now is that businesses aren't actually spending. What makes you think that an influx of money will change that when many of the businesses that are foregoing spending are already highly profitable? Businesses don't spend when they're uncertain about the future. The clusterfuck that was 2007 scared a lot of companies into more of the Japanese model (save, save, save) and away from the US model of being so leveraged you can't even make payroll if someone hiccups. But at some point all that extra money becomes ridiculous and needs to go somewhere. Also the Japanese model sucks if taken too far. So they could do stock buybacks which would boost Wall Street. Or they can consolidate via mergers. Or they can remodel stores and buy newer equipment. Any of those and the economy keeps humming along. If businesses bring back those profits they will buy something with them. Especially Apple, since they've got 300 billion just sitting around and are falling behind in several new technologies.
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Jun 3, 2017 23:25
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GreyjoyBastard posted:South Dakota, Michigan, and Vermont: "our voting access is exactly where it should be." tbf that's a slightly better look than the apparent "not enough voting or too much?" crisis the rest of the country is apparently going through
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Jun 3, 2017 23:26
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Dear god he really won't shut up about all this: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3822630&pagenumber=1&perpage=40
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Jun 3, 2017 23:27
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So is this incident at London Bridge actually at London Bridge or the bridge everyone thinks is London Bridge?
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Jun 3, 2017 23:28
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empty whippet box posted:If your point was to say he should have a space between da and vinci, you didn't make that point very clear. If your point was something else, I'm genuinely mystified as to what it could be. His point is that da Vinci means from Vinci and isn't really a name. But everyone knows who "da Vinci" refers to and only an annoying pedantic medievalist like BangorKP could possibly care. Ogmius815 fucked around with this message at 23:31 on Jun 3, 2017 |
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Jun 3, 2017 23:28
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empty whippet box posted:If your point was to say he should have a space between da and vinci, you didn't make that point very clear. If your point was something else, I'm genuinely mystified as to what it could be. Referring to Leonardo as "daVinci" is just saying " of Vinci". The daVinci part is just where he was from and born not a last name.
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Jun 3, 2017 23:28
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Darth Windu posted:Thanks man. Maybe trump was right to take us out, then. Granted it's the only thing he's been right on so far This is a masterful troll it pisses off people, sure, but it also elevates the climate deniers to tell us more.
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Jun 3, 2017 23:28
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Ogmius815 posted:His point is that da Vinci means from Venice and isn't really a name. But everyone knows who "da Vinci" refers to and only an annoying pedantic medievalist like BrandorKP could possibly care. Nah this is this art history interest from decades ago. I'll have you know I could ID random impressionist works by artist in early middle school. Bar Ran Dun fucked around with this message at 23:35 on Jun 3, 2017 |
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Jun 3, 2017 23:32
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kartikeya posted:Something I've randomly noticed the past few days. Have you heard that theory about how the Mona Lisa isn't a painting of an actual woman, but possibly a feminized self portrait of DaVinci himself? Ah so Donnie wants to gently caress a female himself.
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Jun 3, 2017 23:33
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PhazonLink posted:Ah so Donnie wants to gently caress a female himself. Your favorite child is usually the one who looks most like your spouse because they have qualities that attracted to you to them, even if it's only subconsciously and not sexual in nature. So Donald is even weird with the kids he prefers and it's probably totally sexual in nature.
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Jun 3, 2017 23:39
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Nonsense posted:People like to pretend that the economy is capable of massive growth uncoupled from government spending. I heard it yesterday on On Point from a caller. ...I'm going to be uncharacteristically fair here and point out that a lot of people don't even have a loving clue how the economy works in a basic sense, so it is that much easier for them to believe "spending bad!" Sit someone down and walk them through the basic cycle & how demand is the driving factor and it helps.
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Jun 3, 2017 23:41
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