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FUCK SNEEP
Apr 21, 2007





Some true bipartisanship in TYOOL 2017 :wow:

e:

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Night10194
Feb 13, 2012

We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

Heck Yes! Loam! posted:

one of the biggest problem democrats face is that people who support them are easily deceived by those who don't.

Every bad thing is the democrats' fault because they're the only rational actors!

Is a thing plenty of people unironically apparently believe.

boner confessor
Apr 25, 2013

by R. Guyovich

Glazier posted:

Yeah if you do that people won't read it, welcome to the future of "long form" content.

i read plenty of long form articles but i'm not going to read one article chunked into 30 little tiny sections. twitter is for jokes and blurbs not long complex thoughts

BigBallChunkyTime
Nov 25, 2011

Kyle Schwarber: World Series hero, Beefy Lad, better than you.

Illegal Hen
I take it no Spicey time today?

Classtoise
Feb 11, 2008

THINKS CON-AIR WAS A GOOD MOVIE

Night10194 posted:

Every bad thing is the democrats' fault because they're the only rational actors!

Is a thing plenty of people unironically apparently believe.

It's like when the 2 year old shits in his pants and paints the walls with it. You can't yell at him! Yell at the 10 year old instead! :downs:

ShredsYouSay
Sep 22, 2011

How's his widow holding up?
Wasn't the point of twitter to prevent long complex thoughts, ala newspeak

Teddybear
May 16, 2009

Look! A teddybear doll!
It's soooo cute!


So obviously the congressional game is going to get some major coverage tonight. I wonder if they'll have commentators come in to call it-- give it the full broadcast experience. Or it'll end up being one camera behind home plate or something.

Heck Yes! Loam!
Nov 15, 2004

a rich, friable soil containing a relatively equal mixture of sand and silt and a somewhat smaller proportion of clay.

Night10194 posted:

Every bad thing is the democrats' fault because they're the only rational actors!

Is a thing plenty of people unironically apparently believe.

more than is reasonable. There's plenty of mcmagic's out there who'd gladly destroy the party to feel like they've accomplished something close to ideological purity. Just look at TYT for another good example.

TheScott2K
Oct 26, 2003

I'm just saying, there's a nonzero chance Trump has a really toad penis.

Teddybear posted:

So obviously the congressional game is going to get some major coverage tonight. I wonder if they'll have commentators come in to call it-- give it the full broadcast experience. Or it'll end up being one camera behind home plate or something.

A lot of unathletic Congresscritters sweating this poo poo now

tight aspirations
Jul 13, 2009

ShredsYouSay posted:

Wasn't the point of twitter to prevent long complex thoughts, ala newspeak

You're thinking of Fahrenheit 451. Newspeak just didn't have words for some concepts.

Eggplant Squire
Aug 14, 2003


A car is going to backfire in the parking lot and one of the congress guys that were bragging about packing heat yesterday will kill four people.

Kekekela
Oct 28, 2004
Trump picked up 4 net points in the Gallup today. (59/36 to 57/38) That's a three-day average so he probably got a fair bump from this. Anecdotal evidence based on the number of assholes I've had to block on fb for "radical leftwing" bullshit posts supports the theory. God how are otherwise normal people so loving dumb.

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
Do you have an Air Miles Card?
lol at this thread defending avowed nazi heidegger

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
Do you have an Air Miles Card?

Kekekela posted:

Trump picked up 4 net points in the Gallup today. (59/36 to 57/38) That's a three-day average so he probably got a fair bump from this. Anecdotal evidence based on the number of assholes I've had to block on fb for "radical leftwing" bullshit posts supports the theory. God how are otherwise normal people so loving dumb.

Don't worry he'll be plumbing new depths within a week

empty whippet box
Jun 9, 2004

by Fluffdaddy

Kekekela posted:

Trump picked up 4 net points in the Gallup today. (59/36 to 57/38) That's a three-day average so he probably got a fair bump from this. Anecdotal evidence based on the number of assholes I've had to block on fb for "radical leftwing" bullshit posts supports the theory. God how are otherwise normal people so loving dumb.

Don't sweat it. It doesn't matter.

Jaxyon
Mar 7, 2016
I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

HappyHippo posted:

Don't worry he'll be plumbing new depths within a week

Yep. Dude is way too dumb to capitalize on this

Eggplant Squire
Aug 14, 2003


The kind of people that come back every time Trump ties his shoes by himself or wipes his own rear end without getting any on the walls are going to come back come election time regardless of whatever he does. It's like the types that "forgot" about the pussy grabbing comments when in reality they didn't really care but didn't want admit they were supporting those comments until they could be sure that other people didn't care either.

Pollyanna
Mar 5, 2005

Milk's on them.


Nevertheless, his floor is somewhere from 30%~35%. I doubt his approval will go much lower. His disapproval, however, technically has no ceiling :getin:

Gynocentric Regime
Jun 9, 2010

by Cyrano4747

boner confessor posted:

i read plenty of long form articles but i'm not going to read one article chunked into 30 little tiny sections. twitter is for jokes and blurbs not long complex thoughts

I agree, but we are olds so :shrug:

Yngwie Mangosteen
Aug 23, 2007

Pollyanna posted:

Nevertheless, his floor is somewhere from 30%~35%. I doubt his approval will go much lower. His disapproval, however, technically has no ceiling :getin:

His ceiling would be 70%~65% with those numbers.

empty whippet box
Jun 9, 2004

by Fluffdaddy

Pollyanna posted:

Nevertheless, his floor is somewhere from 30%~35%. I doubt his approval will go much lower. His disapproval, however, technically has no ceiling :getin:

I think we're gonna see him dip into the 20s, and it won't be long. My pessimism has been melting steadily as the mattering has continued. The investigation will progress, and he is actually guilty, and of more things than we know. So he will do crazier and crazier and more unacceptable things, and his approval will plummet. People give him bumps for poo poo like this but they never last. It's just 'oh, something happened in the news, yes I am a dutiful republican' responses.

Teddybear
May 16, 2009

Look! A teddybear doll!
It's soooo cute!


TheScott2K posted:

A lot of unathletic Congresscritters sweating this poo poo now

I would unironically love the game getting the full ESPN treatment in the future. It's at the Nats' stadium already, all the tech and facilities are there, just swing the staff in and have them work up some graphics.

Sen. Ed Markey (D-MA-2B)
BA: .201
1 - 4 (single)
COOK: Safe Dem

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
Do you have an Air Miles Card?

Pollyanna posted:

Nevertheless, his floor is somewhere from 30%~35%. I doubt his approval will go much lower. His disapproval, however, technically has no ceiling :getin:

Someone posted this a while back but I only recently got around to reading it. A South Korean talks about the scandal that got Park kicked out of office:

http://askakorean.blogspot.ca/2016/12/the-lessons-of-choi-soon-sil-scandal.html?m=1


quote:

Trump boasted that he would maintain his support even if he killed someone in the middle of New York city. Park Geun-hye had something similar—a “concrete floor” that supported her no matter what she did. No matter how badly Park Geun-hye performed as the president, the “concrete floor” never let her fall below 30 percent approval rating. Those who belonged to the “concrete floor” only consumed right-wing newspapers and cable TV news, and believed the ridiculous rumors about liberal politicians spread through conservative chat rooms, about how they were North Korean shills bent on bringing communism to South Korea. (My personal favorite? According to the rumors, Moon Jae-in is secretly hoarding 200 tons of gold bars that he stole from an innocent conservative man. As a frame of reference, the Bank of Korea has slightly more than 100 tons of gold.)

To Korea’s liberals, this concrete floor seemed impenetrable. Park Geun-hye supporters were old, set in their ways, and lived in their own information bubble. What is more, because of Korea’s falling birth rate, there are more older voters than younger voters for the foreseeable future. For several years into Park Geun-hye’s presidency, liberal politics in Korea seemed structurally doomed. Until suddenly, it wasn’t. In the aftermath of the Choi Soon-sil scandal, Park Geun-hye’s concrete floor melted away like it never existed.

But how? Corruption has been a constant presence in Korean politics. Every president in Korea’s democratic history—including Roh Moo-hyun and Lee Myung-bak—was investigated for receiving bribes, but not one of them suffered a 4 percent approval rating, coupled with weekly protests with million attendees and an impeachment vote. What was so special about this particular corruption scandal?

My personal theory is: Choi Soon-sil scandal was just the right fact that destroyed the foundation Park Geun-hye’s appeal.

It goes on to explain that last sentence. I don't know if this is the right scandal to completely undermine Trump's appeal, but it's not impossible for him to collapse completely

Teddybear
May 16, 2009

Look! A teddybear doll!
It's soooo cute!


Fun fact: Trump isn't the lowest approved western leader right now. Step forward the Strong and Stable Theresa May:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/875347278596366336

axeil
Feb 14, 2006

Skex posted:

Personally I think that your theories on Narrativists and compaction cycles make a lot of intuitive sense. And does seem to track fairly consistently with historical data.

Where I think you go off the rails in prediction is that you forget that your own theory shows why extremist eventually dissipate into a none issue. Because the compaction cycles themselves shrink the contingent with each compaction while the group becomes hardened and more extreme they also become by necessity smaller as they slough off the less extreme members with each cycle.


The story of Islamic extremism and terrorism in Algeria is an apt anology for this. Paraphrasing from what I recall when I learned about it in the early 00s:

-Algeria has a growing extreme Islamist movement. There are Islamist parties and are potentially poised to win elections and promise that if they win there will not be any more elections as the will of God is not decided by democracy
-Alegerian state security grows nervous and as a result infilitrates these Islamist groups
-Algerian undercover agents encourage more extreme thinking, in hopes that a more radical message will decrease their popularity
-Islamist parties become more extreme, start blowing up "secularists"
-Algerian society reacts in horror, political gains dry up
-Islamist groups continue to radicalize
-Islamist parties now target anyone who isn't Islamic
-More horror from Algerian public
-Islamist groups continue to radicalize, splinter groups start forming
-Islamist parties now target anyone not actively advocating for Islamic Revolution
-Public is generally fed up with this now, recruiting for these terrorist groups drops precipitiously
-The radicalize->expand target list->lose popularity cycle continues

In the end the budding Islamic extremist movement in Algeria ended with a bunch of groups pushed out of society, focusing more on attacking each other than achieving their objectives. Their increasing radicalization and inability to accept any viewpoint other than their own isolated them from the rest of society and eventually resulted in them destroying themselves.

IMO, the same stuff is happening in American politics, it's just moving a lot slower.

Eggplant Squire
Aug 14, 2003


Teddybear posted:

Fun fact: Trump isn't the lowest approved western leader right now. Step forward the Strong and Stable Theresa May:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/875347278596366336

Someone check up on Jim Messina.

CascadeBeta
Feb 14, 2009

by Cyrano4747
A thought experiment that I'm sure has come up before but is worth considering: Assuming Trump somehow doesn't get nailed with obstruction and refuses to resign, and he gets obliterated in the 2020 election, does he give up the seat or does he try to claim some sort of fraud in the election to hold onto power? I just can't see Trump willingly doing a peaceful transition of power.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Ogmius815 posted:

See if you make up words that don't mean anything and write too goddamn much there's a certain class of people who will think you are smart. See also: Eripsa, Heidegger.

There are a substantial number of people in D&D with severe lack of understanding how people with learning differences work. I realize this is a large category " learning differences" but I've seen some really dumb takes. Working on an OP.

B B
Dec 1, 2005

So, uh, Ben Sasse is a pretty loving weird dude, turns out:

The Outline posted:

Ben Sasse is a Millennial-bashing baby
The Nebraska senator’s new book blames the young for society’s ills.

Conservatives have a strange and fraught relationship with modernity. On one hand, they relish fantasies of endless economic growth fueled by mass production and unrestrained consumption. When asked to defend laissez-faire capitalism, they point to the iPhone, McDonald’s and the Ford Model T, capitalism’s highest achievements. Any critique is met with an accusation of hypocrisy that uses these as a cudgel — how can you hate capitalism while using an iPhone? Capitalism means technological advancement, infinitely expanding consumer choices, and instant gratification, which makes it far preferable to life in North Korea, the only possible alternative. On the other hand, conservatives loathe what modernity has wrought. The automobile and the airplane destroyed the tight-knit local community. The addition of women to the workforce chipped away at the traditional nuclear family of the 1950s. The doctrine of consumerism led us to constantly crave the new, novel, and exciting, words that cannot be used to describe the Bible. Worst of all, modernity gave us electronic gadgets that distract children from their fathers' lectures. A good conservative believes all these things at once, but cannot and will not reconcile their contradictions. When he attempts to put together a statement of belief, as Sen. Ben Sasse, a Republican from Nebraska, has done in his book The Vanishing American Adult: Our Coming-of-Age Crisis--and How to Rebuild a Culture of Self-Reliance, the result is wholly incoherent.

The Vanishing American Adult is designed to appeal to the newest trend among conservatives: Millennial-bashing. Anger at younger generations, and at Millennials in particular, is nothing new. The stereotypes about Millennials — that they’re lazy, self-entitled, quick to take offense — have been floating around for a decade. But, thanks to a rash of increasingly hysterical op-eds and high-profile college protests, this latent anger has morphed into a primary fixation. Much of movement conservatism is now inseparable from grievances about the young. The holy trinity of millennial-mockery (safe spaces, trigger warnings, and “snowflakes”) has come to dominate the conservative vocabulary, beating out old standbys like “freedom” and “Benghazi.” Sasse is acutely aware of this, which is why the first sentence of The Vanishing American Adult’s description reads as such: “In an era of safe spaces, trigger warnings, and an unprecedented election, the country's youth are in crisis.”

Before Sasse, 45, became famous for being present when Bill Maher said the n-word on television, he was most notable for being one of the GOP’s biggest hypocrites. After winning his 2014 Senate campaign on an anti-Obamacare platform, his status as a junior senator representing a patch of wilderness evidently garnered him inadequate press coverage. His solution was to cast himself as a staunch anti-Trumper. He published an open letter denouncing Trump during the 2016 Republican primary, the first of many attention-grabbing stunts. Sasse called Trump a “megalomaniac strongman” and expressed concerns about his womanizing and flip-flopping on gun rights. Under the assumption that Trump would lose the general election, the National Review and Mother Jones alike anointed him as the man who would rebuild the party after the “Trumpocalypse.”

This all looks very dumb in hindsight — under Trump, the so-called “moderates” have less power within the party than ever, and Sasse’s voting record, both pre- and post-Trump, is exactly in line with the president’s policy proposals. He railed against Obamacare, even though Nebraska has an unusually high rate of enrollment in ACA exchanges. He shares the bulk of Trump’s views on immigration, including a fixation on increasing border security and a refusal to consider amnesty for longtime undocumented residents. He’s anti-gay marriage, anti-abortion, a climate-change denier and a bathroom warrior. And in a display of utter shamelessness, Sasse voted for 19 out of 20 Trump cabinet nominees. Who did he oppose? Was it Jeff Sessions, the neo-Confederate caricature who wants to dramatically increase our record-high rate of incarceration? Was it Betsy DeVos, the school privatizer whose only qualification is that her brother was CEO of Blackwater? Of course not. It was Robert Lighthizer, now the U.S. Trade Representative, whom Sasse deemed insufficiently friendly toward NAFTA.

So it perhaps comes as no surprise that the attention-hungry Sasse sets out to analyze why America’s teens and 20-somethings have gone so astray. Given the arbitrary nature of the Boomer/Gen X/Millennial divides and the difficulty of empirically comparing their respective psychological profiles, his evidence is largely anecdotal. When he does provide hard data, it does little to strengthen his case. Many of the statistics he presents only signify generational “crisis” to a Nebraska evangelical. Some of the more encouraging trends he recoils from are that young people “identify less with the faith and organized religion of their parents and grandparents and more with an amorphous spirituality” and that they show “a resurgence of interest in socialism.” The book is full of this sort of unintentional optimism — at one point, he earnestly writes that “For men with less than a four-year college degree, ‘leisure time’ completely dominates the hours they’re not working.”
Sasse does bring up some legitimately worrying trends, like the increase in reported stress levels among teens and the alarming number of Millennials living with their parents well into adulthood. He just barely acknowledges that there may be an economic reason for these changes, but it seldom comes up. When it does, he mentions it as a postscript to the greater issues of “decreasing initiative” and “lack of self-reliance.” The phrase “student loans” appears just once in 320 pages. “Recession” appears twice, first to say that despite it, “we still have more material surplus than any other people any place in all of history,” and then in the context of mocking writer Talia Jane for demanding higher wages from Yelp.

Sasse’s guidelines for successful child rearing are interesting. He recommends that children kill deer and have “the blood of their casualty dabbed on their foreheads and cheeks,” which is a great way to contract a number of animal-borne diseases, not to mention very weird. His wife “regularly quotes Margaret Thatcher” to their three children. He praises the 19th-century Scottish philosopher Thomas Carlyle, a fervent defender of slavery, as an authority on “the work ethic that dominated nineteenth-century America.” Many passages in the book read like Grandpa Simpson dialogue: “No one should regard the eradication of polio as anything but a glorious blessing, but we should also be able to recall that many older folks we know grew their character by fighting through their polio,” Sasse writes. In the absence of a quick-fix disease epidemic, Sasse subscribes to the belief that self-denial, especially for its own sake, is the cornerstone of virtue. In one of many puzzling childhood reminiscences, he writes: “When I was a kid, we had air conditioning in our house, but we never used it. My dad explained that it was a luxury, and it was a nice blessing that the house came with it, but we weren’t rich, and so we wouldn’t be paying for the extra electricity.” That the Sasse family knowingly shelled out extra money for a luxury and then decided to forego it purely as a display of virtue illustrates the confused worldview of the suburban evangelical — one part conspicuous consumption, one part stoicism, the two mixed together so haphazardly that neither is able to retain its internal logic.

It comes as no surprise that Sasse, who has degrees from both Harvard and Yale, largely sounds confused and out of his element when extolling the virtues of hard manual labor and material deprivation. In the book’s afterword, he chooses to do this through the voice of Teddy Roosevelt, who travels through time to give an imagined commencement address at a modern-day university. An excerpt: “Hey, you! — in the third row, with the dyed hair, on your smartyphone — are you hearing me? Put your gadgets down and look around you! Wake up!” Give me a loving break.

When he's not trying to build a case for child labor, Sasse sounds more like a new-age philosopher than a Tea Party senator. His prescriptions for modern youth are, for the most part, distinctively un-Republican. He invites readers to limit their possessions and reject consumerism. He has a soft spot for nature, and he writes at length about the benefits of the cross-country road trip. At one point, he argues for a greater embrace of birth and death with an anecdote about witnessing a friend’s birth with his wife as a “trial run” for their own. “The obstetrics nurses were — to put it mildly — surprised to see the four of us arrive in the delivery room arm in arm,” he writes. He describes this as “a great evening.” This mishmash of ideologies — part Thoreau, part Kerouac, part Mommy Blogger — bears no resemblance to Sasse’s actual voting record, which is hostile to the environment and seeks to further enrich the purveyors of mindless entertainment and conspicuous consumption.

It’s hard not to view the sudden uptick in Millennial-bashing as a form of psychological projection. Every negative personality trait conservatives identify in Millennials is also present in Trump, the oldest president upon inauguration and the overwhelming favorite of older voters. Privileged upbringing? Check. Inability to handle criticism? Check. Too much “screen time”? Rejection of the traditional nuclear family? Compulsive oversharing on social media? All of it applies to the leader of the Republican Party as much as it does to those in the catacombs of Instagram. Conservatives both on and off the Trump Train are uneasy about this glaringly obvious counterargument, but for the time being they have no choice but to double down. Sasse was pressed on this in a recent interview with Politico, but he quickly changed the subject. It’s understandable that he wouldn’t want to go there. For Sasse to confront the fundamental truth that his own party is the primary vector of the selfishness, alienation, and moral decay he abhors would require him to care about other people besides himself.

https://theoutline.com/post/1729/ben-sasse-is-a-millennial-bashing-baby

TheScott2K
Oct 26, 2003

I'm just saying, there's a nonzero chance Trump has a really toad penis.

CascadeBeta posted:

A thought experiment that I'm sure has come up before but is worth considering: Assuming Trump somehow doesn't get nailed with obstruction and refuses to resign, and he gets obliterated in the 2020 election, does he give up the seat or does he try to claim some sort of fraud in the election to hold onto power? I just can't see Trump willingly doing a peaceful transition of power.

Trump will be so god drat happy to be done with this poo poo after four years

Jaxyon
Mar 7, 2016
I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

Ogmius815 posted:

See if you make up words that don't mean anything and write too goddamn much there's a certain class of people who will think you are smart. See also: Eripsa, Heidegger.

Oh god, this, everywhere

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009
Probation
Can't post for 6 hours!
Ruh-Roh!

quote:

BREAKING: TRUMP TRIED TO CONVINCE NSA CHIEF TO ABSOLVE HIM OF ANY RUSSIAN COLLUSION

A recent National Security Agency memo documents a phone call in which U.S. President Donald Trump pressures agency chief Admiral Mike Rogers to state publicly that there is no evidence of collusion between his campaign and Russia, say reports.

The memo was written by Rick Ledgett, the former deputy director of the NSA, sources familiar with the memo told The Wall Street Journal. Ledgett stepped down from his job this spring.

The memo said Trump questioned the American intelligence community findings that Russia interfered in the 2016 election. American intelligence agencies issued a report early this year that found Russian intelligence agencies hacked the country’s political parties and worked to sway the election to Trump.
http://www.newsweek.com/trump-tried-convince-nsa-chief-mike-rogers-russia-investigation-fake-report-626073

eyebeem
Jul 18, 2013

by R. Guyovich

CascadeBeta posted:

A thought experiment that I'm sure has come up before but is worth considering: Assuming Trump somehow doesn't get nailed with obstruction and refuses to resign, and he gets obliterated in the 2020 election, does he give up the seat or does he try to claim some sort of fraud in the election to hold onto power? I just can't see Trump willingly doing a peaceful transition of power.

I've been saying this since November.

I simply can't see him admitting he was beaten in an election and doing the right thing.

eyebeem
Jul 18, 2013

by R. Guyovich

It's okay. He's just new to this.

HappyHippo
Nov 19, 2003
Do you have an Air Miles Card?
Did anyone actually think that Eripsa was smart?

Hastings
Dec 30, 2008

FizFashizzle posted:

Goon Project?!?!?!

I'll get started on some concept art

Tell me if you need some strategic planning, and I'm your gal.

AnoHito
May 8, 2014

CascadeBeta posted:

A thought experiment that I'm sure has come up before but is worth considering: Assuming Trump somehow doesn't get nailed with obstruction and refuses to resign, and he gets obliterated in the 2020 election, does he give up the seat or does he try to claim some sort of fraud in the election to hold onto power? I just can't see Trump willingly doing a peaceful transition of power.

So, what, he's just going to lock himself in the Oval Office? Who do you really think is going to support him doing this? I have a hard time believing the police/secret service wouldn't just throw him out, let alone, say, the military turning on its own country.

Lote
Aug 5, 2001

Place your bets

Otto Warmbier should have a good perspective on gaining strength of character from weakness from a neuromuscular disease. Let's ask him.

EndTimesProfit
Jul 1, 2004

Don't worry son, it's just the Smilin' Mighty Jesus!

B B posted:

So, uh, Ben Sasse is a pretty loving weird dude, turns out:

I, no-poo poo, had the blood of the first deer I killed when I was a teenager, rubbed all over my face by a couple of older cousins.

It's why that was the last time I ever went hunting.

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Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

Blood Clots
Sweat Dries
Bones Heal
Suck it Up and Keep Wrestling
I agree with Ben Sasse that a cross country road trip is a fantastic idea for a vacation if you can stand the people who come with you

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