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OctaMurk posted:Not that anything will turn out well for Qatar, but the idea of Saudis fighting and winning a quick war of any sort is laughable. They're only going to make themselves look weaker and more impulsive if they go down this route. They don't have the cards to back up what they're bidding. To be fair, I feel like the Houthis are probably going to be better at putting up a resistance than the Qataris would be. It just seems incredibly unlikely that all of the US, Iran, and Turkey would just let this pass with nothing more than words, right? I'm not really familiar with the inner workings of Middle Eastern politics.
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Jun 23, 2017 18:16
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OctaMurk posted:Not that anything will turn out well for Qatar, but the idea of Saudis fighting and winning a quick war of any sort is laughable. They're only going to make themselves look weaker and more impulsive if they go down this route. They don't have the cards to back up what they're bidding. i didnt say it would be quick. i think they probaly legit believe that. steinrokkan posted:I don't see how the economic and PR damage of initiating a shooting war over one of the Gulf prestigious metropolises could lead to any sort of gain for the Sauds. It actively makes them look worse, and it isn't going to be hushed up like Yemen. house saud doesn't give two fucks. they at least personally are richer then god and they dont give to shits about PR, they waved gold and probably threw whores and lies at trump and now he is content and will back anything they do, and they dont give a gently caress about their failson comanders or conscript soldiers.
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Jun 23, 2017 18:20
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Elyv posted:To be fair, I feel like the Houthis are probably going to be better at putting up a resistance than the Qataris would be. It just seems incredibly unlikely that all of the US, Iran, and Turkey would just let this pass with nothing more than words, right? I'm not really familiar with the inner workings of Middle Eastern politics. iran and turkey may fight back in some way if poo poo happens. who knows about the US but it looks like trump is pushing us standing by saudi arabia. for all of Obamas issues/gently caress ups, he wouldnt have let this poo poo happen.
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Jun 23, 2017 18:23
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Given the ultimatum style of the list of demands pointing towards further escalation, I wonder if the fact an occupation of Qatar would probably be rather revenue positive for Saudi might be a factor for MbS and his planning. It didn't work out for Saddam with Kuwait, but with Trump in power I'm not sure how likely the US is to step in this time - especially based on the reaction so far.
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Jun 23, 2017 18:38
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It would be cool if Qatar invited more NATO countries like France to join the Turkish troops as peacekeepers.
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Jun 23, 2017 18:44
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Volkerball posted:Ahrar al-Sham is rebranding itself, which was announced in a rare video from their leader. As part of it, they're now using the Syrian independence flag traditionally used by the FSA, instead of their variant of the black and white jihadist flag. They've also stated they are going to operate under "Arab law," rather than sharia moving forward. I think this sums it up well. Dapper_Swindler posted:the shithead knows that the Jihadi movements are hosed one way or another and is now gonna pretend he/they were moderates all along to save themselves. https://twitter.com/WithinSyriaBlog/status/878211281957867520 quote:Ahrar Al-Sham arrests 15 civilian in Ma'arat Al-Numan for drinking alcohol Moving over to Raqqa: https://twitter.com/CivilWarMap/status/878201780466839552 quote:Syrian Democratic Forces advancing on several fronts: I laughed at one of the twitter responses, then felt terrible: https://twitter.com/Jens_Govaert80/status/878220101731864577 quote:Seems like Raqqa city is on the verge to be beheaded by SDF. :-D
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Jun 23, 2017 18:49
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Saladin Rising posted:Yeah, about that rebranding: It might not win them any popularity contests, but if the worst jihadist groups did was ban alcohol, I think I could find a way to live with that. The quote Volkerball posted earlier about waiting until the revolution was dead to embrace it was really good though.
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Jun 23, 2017 18:53
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Again with the Clancy poo poo, sorry, but these are Clancy times. An outright Saudi invasion of Qatar seems pretty unlikely, but maybe they could stir poo poo up? Organize a coup, or protests in the streets, and then move their troops in to "maintain stability" or some such? Saudi send APCs and troops to Bahrain during protests there, though with the permission of Bahrain's rulers. Just a general question to the thread: what does KSA do if, after 10 days, Qatar hasn't met their demands? Doing nothing makes them look weak. Do they have other non-violent ways of exerting pressure? Maybe ejecting Qatar from the GCC? Maybe my mistake is thinking they actually have a plan.
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Jun 23, 2017 19:23
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Count Roland posted:Again with the Clancy poo poo, sorry, but these are Clancy times. Last I heard, there would be "unspecified consequences".
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Jun 23, 2017 19:32
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Count Roland posted:Again with the Clancy poo poo, sorry, but these are Clancy times. idk. maybe. i think they will try to starve them/no fly zone and then(probaly not but who knows in these times espcialy with trump) try to invade when they have all their GCC friends in row. Sinteres posted:It might not win them any popularity contests, but if the worst jihadist groups did was ban alcohol, I think I could find a way to live with that. The quote Volkerball posted earlier about waiting until the revolution was dead to embrace it was really good though. true. but the revolution weirdly might not be dead yet. it seems trump or at least the military and their neo con friends are still pushing for fighting assad or more importantly to them iran.
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Jun 23, 2017 19:41
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Elyv posted:Last I heard, there would be "unspecified consequences". I think Qatar will call their bluff and SA will eat poo poo. Christ, they're not going invade ala Saddam. They're hoping that the blockade is enough of a stick, and it appears so far that Qatar is getting by ok regardless, and in fact is quite defiant in the face of this aggression. I wonder if the inevitable failure of this ploy will cause the Allegiance Council to reconsider the status of the new crown prince.
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Jun 23, 2017 19:52
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Count Roland posted:1 Suppress all publications which "incite hatred and contempt of the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy" and are "directed against its territorial integrity". I had the excact same deja vu. What's quite interesting is that the real deal breaker wasn't 1. and 3. but point 6. Supressing media they were ok with but involving Austrian agents in their internal affairs was the real dealbreaker as far as I remember reading(which could also be touching point 5.) I think loosing such a large actor in the media diversity(even with its faults*) is the worst outcome out of all of this, but also something I think has precedence to be likely. *I would like some points on the merits of Al-Jazeera and its editorial freedom. I remember long ago someone said on this thread that the Arabic language version are uses a different tone in certain subjects then the English/international one. I also don't disspute that AJ shys away from Quatar criticism. I would like some nuanced points about this, i think its very important because what we have now is something really terrible. Autocrats trying to silence media discourse.
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Jun 23, 2017 19:59
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Ramrod Hotshot posted:I think Qatar will call their bluff and SA will eat poo poo. Christ, they're not going invade ala Saddam. They're hoping that the blockade is enough of a stick, and it appears so far that Qatar is getting by ok regardless, and in fact is quite defiant in the face of this aggression. Yeah I wonder what bit of palace politics inspired this move. The WW1 parallels are interesting though. I'm sure the invading Saudi troops (should it go that way) will totally be home by Christmas. 54.4 crowns posted:I would like some nuanced points about this, i think its very important because what we have now is something really terrible. Autocrats trying to silence media discourse. My  part of me thinks going after Al Jazeera is one of the reasons the white house is backing them on this. I know that network isn't as popular as it used to be in the west but since Trump can't silence the media here he might as well go after easier targets abroad.
Feldegast42 fucked around with this message at 20:16 on Jun 23, 2017 |
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Jun 23, 2017 20:09
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Sinteres posted:It would be cool if Qatar invited more NATO countries like France to join the Turkish troops as peacekeepers. Well there are currently a lot of Qatari pilots and mechanics who are guests of the ETR 3/4 "Aquitaine" squadron at St. Dizier, learning how to fly and maintain France's finest war machine.
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Jun 23, 2017 20:24
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Feldegast42 posted:Yeah I wonder what bit of palace politics inspired this move. my worry is that just like world war one, it will explode outward. i doubt iran and turkey would take it lying down and who knows what russia will do. yeah its clancy poo poo but who knows anymore. also i doubt it with trump. they probably had some models gently caress him after driving him around their gilded palaces.
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Jun 23, 2017 20:39
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How long until they blame Qatar? https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/878336710517571584
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Jun 23, 2017 20:50
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Sinteres posted:How long until they blame Qatar? Reports also indicating that Qatar-backed militants have set the Reichstag on fire
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Jun 23, 2017 20:51
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Saudi Arabia isn't just demanding that Qatar shut down al-Jazeera. They're demanding Qatar shut down all Qatari funded media.
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Jun 23, 2017 20:55
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Sergg posted:Saudi Arabia isn't just demanding that Qatar shut down al-Jazeera. They're demanding Qatar shut down all Qatari funded media. yeah. they want qatar to become a vassel state and i doubt qatar is going to go through with any of them except for maybe say they "stopped funding" terrorists.
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Jun 23, 2017 20:59
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List of demands via The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/23/close-al-jazeera-saudi-arabia-issues-qatar-with-13-demands-to-end-blockade 1) Curb diplomatic ties with Iran and close its diplomatic missions there. Expel members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and cut off any joint military cooperation with Iran. Only trade and commerce with Iran that complies with US and international sanctions will be permitted. 2) Sever all ties to “terrorist organisations”, specifically the Muslim Brotherhood, Islamic State, al-Qaida and Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Formally declare those entities as terrorist groups. 3) Shut down al-Jazeera and its affiliate stations. 4) Shut down news outlets that Qatar funds, directly and indirectly, including Arabi21, Rassd, Al-Araby Al-Jadeed and Middle East Eye. 5) Immediately terminate the Turkish military presence in Qatar and end any joint military cooperation with Turkey inside Qatar. 6) Stop all means of funding for individuals, groups or organisations that have been designated as terrorists by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, Bahrain, the US and other countries. 7) Hand over “terrorist figures” and wanted individuals from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Bahrain to their countries of origin. Freeze their assets, and provide any desired information about their residency, movements and finances. 8) End interference in sovereign countries’ internal affairs. Stop granting citizenship to wanted nationals from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Bahrain. Revoke Qatari citizenship for existing nationals where such citizenship violates those countries’ laws. 9) Stop all contacts with the political opposition in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Bahrain. Hand over all files detailing Qatar’s prior contacts with and support for those opposition groups. 10) Pay reparations and compensation for loss of life and other, financial losses caused by Qatar’s policies in recent years. The sum will be determined in coordination with Qatar. 11) Consent to monthly audits for the first year after agreeing to the demands, then once per quarter during the second year. For the following 10 years, Qatar would be monitored annually for compliance. 12) Align itself with the other Gulf and Arab countries militarily, politically, socially and economically, as well as on economic matters, in line with an agreement reached with Saudi Arabia in 2014. 13) Agree to all the demands within 10 days of it being submitted to Qatar, or the list becomes invalid.
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Jun 23, 2017 20:59
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Sergg posted:List of demands via The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/23/close-al-jazeera-saudi-arabia-issues-qatar-with-13-demands-to-end-blockade yep, its totatly the "lets provoke them into a war" type of demands.
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Jun 23, 2017 21:01
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When even Boris Johnson thinks you should take a more "measured and realistic" approach to negotiations, you know you're being a loon
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Jun 23, 2017 21:42
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We'll be home by Eid, lads
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Jun 23, 2017 21:46
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https://twitter.com/HenryKrinkIe/status/878419348410572800quote:The United States has told Turkey it will take back weapons supplied to the Kurdish YPG militia in northern Syria after the defeat of Islamic State, Ankara said on Thursday, seeking to address Turkish concerns about arming Kurds on its border. Can anyone really be falling for this?
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Jun 24, 2017 02:18
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FourLeaf posted:https://twitter.com/HenryKrinkIe/status/878419348410572800 I doubt either Erdogan or Mattis believes this will be foolproof, but some attempt is probably better than nothing. Nobody thinks the IRA turned in all their weapons in Ireland, or that FARC has turned in every single weapon in Colombia either, but that doesn't mean the peace accords were worthless in either case. Obviously all bets are off if the US just walks away and Turkey and the YPG are in open conflict at the end of all of this, but if some sort of security agreement is in place, and is predicated on the YPG handing back at least some significant fraction of these weapons, it could actually be somewhat workable. I guess we'll see.
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Jun 24, 2017 03:10
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FourLeaf posted:https://twitter.com/HenryKrinkIe/status/878419348410572800
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Jun 24, 2017 03:17
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It seems a bit early to publicly announce their desire to stab the YPG in the back tbh.
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Jun 24, 2017 03:23
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It's also silly as apparently the US wants to use them for their ends, and expects them to disarm against a clearly aggressive Turkey. If this is the cost for calling off the forecasted attack against Afrin Canton, I suppose they might play along. It would mean they rely on a US supporting/defending them against Turkey. I would rather have the concrete certainty of weapons frankly.
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Jun 24, 2017 03:29
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Coldwar timewarp posted:It's also silly as apparently the US wants to use them for their ends, and expects them to disarm against a clearly aggressive Turkey. If this is the cost for calling off the forecasted attack against Afrin Canton, I suppose they might play along. It would mean they rely on a US supporting/defending them against Turkey. I would rather have the concrete certainty of weapons frankly. Sandwiched between Assad on the one hand and Turkey on the other, those weapons won't do them much good in the long run if the US guarantee isn't credible. They picked a horse, and it still seems to me like their best option is to ride it out, while hedging with Russia and Assad as side bets.
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Jun 24, 2017 04:15
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Some guy tried to terror attack Mecca but was foiled and blew himself up:- https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/24/saudi-security-foils-terror-plot-targeting-mecca-grand-mosque
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Jun 24, 2017 05:29
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Isn't this just more American doubletalk to the Turks? There's been a lot of lip service before, maybe none of that will even happen
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Jun 24, 2017 05:46
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Punkin Spunkin posted:Isn't this just more American doubletalk to the Turks? There's been a lot of lip service before, maybe none of that will even happen I doubt Mattis is straight up lying about his intentions, but there's a lot that could happen between now and then. Whether he means it to be conditional or not, it is.
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Jun 24, 2017 05:47
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Here's the catch: The US will never determine that Islamic State is "truly" defeated 
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Jun 24, 2017 06:28
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Ramrod Hotshot posted:Here's the catch: The US will never determine that Islamic State is "truly" defeated He's waiting until Erdogan's reforms all go through and then it'll be we never said "which" Islamic state...
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Jun 24, 2017 06:32
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Ramrod Hotshot posted:Here's the catch: The US will never determine that Islamic State is "truly" defeated "The lesson of this war is that the IS was within us all along"
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Jun 24, 2017 07:56
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-sh/is_fighters Interesting stuff e: "Identifying all the men in the photographs has proved impossible. IS fighters use noms de guerre, but there was another factor at play. As one member of the Mosul's special forces team explains, "When IS came they were children, we don't recognise them as men." Grim Bohemian Nights fucked around with this message at 09:56 on Jun 24, 2017 |
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Jun 24, 2017 09:49
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https://twitter.com/HKaaman/status/878421394681364480
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Jun 24, 2017 11:18
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54.4 crowns posted:I had the excact same deja vu. Yeah I think even then their response was along the lines of "we're looking into the legal issues of having Austro-Hungarian agents involved in our trials" instead of outright rejection. But the answer was still "not good enough it's war gently caress you." Tragically, the one person in the Austro-Hungarian government who had both the power and will to oppose the war was...Archduke Ferdinand. I think a similar situation exists in Saudi Arabia where the old crown prince got replaced in favor of one that supports all this stupid poo poo.
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Jun 24, 2017 12:18
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Al-Saqr posted:Some guy tried to terror attack Mecca but was foiled and blew himself up:- quote:The blast partially collapsed the building where he had taken refuge, injuring six pilgrims, Turki said.
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Jun 24, 2017 13:05
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El Disco posted:Yeah I think even then their response was along the lines of "we're looking into the legal issues of having Austro-Hungarian agents involved in our trials" instead of outright rejection. But the answer was still "not good enough it's war gently caress you." To be "fair". The old crown prince was like 80 and was probably suffering from dementia. So the new prick had been ruling for a while now. Which is why they are starving Yemen to death.
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Jun 24, 2017 13:53
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