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Bishounen Bonanza posted:"Dominate" means like what we did to Iraq and Afganistan, which is obvious from the context. Yeah this. Obama rejected the no fly zone and direct regime change. He didn't bomb Assad or mount an invasion. The US could have crushed the SAA as easily as it did Saddam had they wanted to, but, for whatever reason (domestic war weariness, lack of an exit strategy, faith in diplomacy, sheer indecisiveness, Russian intercession, regional/NATO reluctance, all of the above?) he never made that call. It doesn't matter what the "foreign policy establishment" thought because they're just professional blowhards and thankfully don't get to make those decisions. The US support for rebels set in slowly and indecisively (the FSA we're frequently the worst armed faction in the country) and the absence of a clear US commitment left abundant room for Turkey, The Saudis, and everyone else to start backing their own pet proxies and did nothing to stop Russia and Iran from moving in in force. That's what multipolar warfare looks like. The US could have said "we'll handle Syria everyone else stay out" and it might have worked for a while, but we'd have to own it -- declare war on Assad, send in troops, deal with the blowback the whole thing, but then maybe it becomes another "you broke it, you bought it" scenario and we spend the next decade seeing pictures of flag draped coffins on the news. The approach we actually took with CIA arms shipments and special ops "advisors" means we have a lot less exposure and a lot more plausible deniability, but it also means we can't control who else will get involved.
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# ? Nov 23, 2017 03:50 |
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# ? May 25, 2024 14:35 |
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I think multipolar warfare can look like all kinds of wars, not just proxy ones like Syria. WW1 was fought in a multipolar world. The great powers at the time just grouped themselves together. The Iran-Iraq war, or the Falklands war or the Russo-Japan war, these are all more conventional wars that could occur in a multipolar world. 2 regional powers fighting, a great power attacking a minor power, and two great powers going at it. Even WW1 should have been multipolar. Democracy vs Fascism vs Communism. But despite the enormous ideological differences, it still ended up being 2v1 before being 1v1. I for one think there's be more war in a multipolar world, not less. It also might not be very stable in the long run, but then nothing has been lately.
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# ? Nov 23, 2017 04:07 |
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A multipolar world is a much more concrete concept with the advent of the nuclear age than in any other prior era. There is simply no way to penetrate a nuclear shield and, thus, no way to knock any of the major players off the board. Previously the only time this would occur was when the distances were so great that a major power simply couldn't project its military might to dominate its neighbor such as Parthia and, to a more chaotic extent, the Germanic tribes east of the Danube for the Roman empire. When you can't remove a competitor they are given as much time as they need to adapt to your strengths and undermine your position even if it takes decades or centuries. And if you can't remove them then you need to work with them.
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# ? Nov 23, 2017 05:12 |
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Well anyway https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...SKBN1DM0NY?il=0 quote:Syrian opposition groups, meeting in Saudi Arabia to seek a unified position ahead of peace talks, decided to stick to their demand that Assad leave power, Al Arabiya television reported, following speculation they might soften their stance after their hardline leader quit.
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# ? Nov 23, 2017 05:15 |
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Brother Friendship posted:A multipolar world is a much more concrete concept with the advent of the nuclear age than in any other prior era. There is simply no way to penetrate a nuclear shield and, thus, no way to knock any of the major players off the board. There's no such thing as a nuclear shield. Arguably, a small-time nuclear power can become even more vulnerable to attack from the "we can destroy the world on our own" crew than a non-nuclear armed power, due to their lack of ability to meaningfully retaliate while simultaneously being viewed as more threatening inherently. And actually amassing and maintaining nuclear weaponry on the scale of the US or Russia remains very expensive and difficult, especially since so much of it is reliant on having the ability to keep tons of subs out at sea and planes in the air 24/7 that could deliver nukes.
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# ? Nov 23, 2017 05:18 |
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I'm referring to Russia/China/USA/"Europe", I suppose I should have made that clear. There are plenty of other reasons why India/Pakistan/Iran/North Korea can't be removed from geography to (non nuclear) fallout.
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# ? Nov 23, 2017 05:21 |
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Duckbox posted:Yeah this. I don't think it was ever possible for the US to have prevented Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf from interfering in the Syrian Civil War. Just stopping private Gulf donors from funding Al Qaeda was difficult enough. Turkey was always going to try and divide the rebels from the PYD, and all the American money in the world couldn't guarantee Syrian rebels would behave as good little western liberal proxies and not engage in a little ethnic cleansing or create a new dictatorship following a victory over Assad.
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# ? Nov 23, 2017 06:39 |
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You can't absolutely prevent such things. But it would have been a totally different ballgame. Assad's regime would have collapsed rapidly, and it would have been tremendously more difficult for Iran to operate or for Turkey/Hezbollah to take advantage of their borders. 'Winning the peace' would still be beyond American power and obviously everyone would put their foot in the ring. But i.e. you wouldn't have Russians bombing things.
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# ? Nov 23, 2017 07:34 |
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Squalid posted:I don't think it was ever possible for the US to have prevented Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf from interfering in the Syrian Civil War. Just stopping private Gulf donors from funding Al Qaeda was difficult enough. Turkey was always going to try and divide the rebels from the PYD, and all the American money in the world couldn't guarantee Syrian rebels would behave as good little western liberal proxies and not engage in a little ethnic cleansing or create a new dictatorship following a victory over Assad. At the start of the revolution, the PYD was far from the only group in Rojava and their relationship with the FSA didn't go to poo poo until Turkey started getting more involved. Obviously we can't prove a counterfactual and I opposed US intervention at the time (still do, mostly), but if Assad had been ousted in the first year of the civil war, the factional map would have been unrecognizable. It took time for the regional powers to really start digging their hooks into Syria and that, more than anything, is what pulled the revolution into a dozen different directions.
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# ? Nov 23, 2017 09:46 |
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Gozinbulx posted:Sorry for drive by post, but can someone recommend me a good book about Syria's occupation of Lebanon? Also possibly just the civil war in general? https://www.amazon.co.uk/Beware-Small-States-Lebanon-Battleground/dp/057123741X/ This provides a fairly detailed overview of modern Lebanese history, up to and including the 2006 Israeli invasion. Its academically sound (as far as I'm aware) and also very readable.
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# ? Nov 23, 2017 13:46 |
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Blut posted:https://www.amazon.co.uk/Beware-Small-States-Lebanon-Battleground/dp/057123741X/ I really should read this. I picked it up years ago but I was put off by how the intro of the book just seemed to talk about how bad Israel was. I mean, I largely agree with that, but it seemed out of place. I guess I'll try again.
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# ? Nov 23, 2017 14:48 |
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https://i.imgur.com/YYxUlMs.gifv
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# ? Nov 23, 2017 17:08 |
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Why do you post that?
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# ? Nov 23, 2017 17:14 |
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Count Roland posted:Why do you post that?
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# ? Nov 23, 2017 17:30 |
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Count Roland posted:Why do you post that? Putin tips over Erdogan's chair
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# ? Nov 23, 2017 18:04 |
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Duckbox posted:At the start of the revolution, the PYD was far from the only group in Rojava and their relationship with the FSA didn't go to poo poo until Turkey started getting more involved. Obviously we can't prove a counterfactual and I opposed US intervention at the time (still do, mostly), but if Assad had been ousted in the first year of the civil war, the factional map would have been unrecognizable. It took time for the regional powers to really start digging their hooks into Syria and that, more than anything, is what pulled the revolution into a dozen different directions. The fact is even with all the knowledge of hindsight it is very difficult to say how things would have turned out in alternative circumstances. The best we can do is make broad assumptions about the motivations and capabilities of actors at a given moment, but even those quickly breakdown following small divergences from actual history. Anyone who thinks they know what would have been in the long term in another world is a fool or liar.
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# ? Nov 23, 2017 18:14 |
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Three big Turks came running like they were in DC.
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# ? Nov 23, 2017 18:18 |
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rear end struggle posted:Putin tips over Erdogan's chair False flag! Erdogan did chairghazi! https://twitter.com/discojournalist/status/933685681670549504
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# ? Nov 23, 2017 18:25 |
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Anta posted:False flag! Erdogan did chairghazi! how deep does this go
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# ? Nov 23, 2017 18:26 |
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rear end struggle posted:Putin tips over Erdogan's chair No, I looked at that. Erdogan goes to standup, but the chair has started to lean back. He doesn't standup fully lest it fall over. That's why he's bent over when he shakes Putin's hand. Putin sees the chair is unsteady and adjusts it, then just pulls it away. Erdogan is still awkwardly moving about. edit: a 2nd camera angle! I was close.
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# ? Nov 23, 2017 19:04 |
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rear end struggle posted:Putin tips over Erdogan's chair "That's for Oleg!"
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# ? Nov 23, 2017 20:31 |
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Count Roland posted:No, I looked at that. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tBz3PqA2Fmc
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# ? Nov 23, 2017 23:38 |
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https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/933845994202157058 The next six months are crucial....
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# ? Nov 24, 2017 01:05 |
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I see he’s white-knighting torture and extortion of political opponents as ‘reform’
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# ? Nov 24, 2017 01:20 |
The reasons why the Arab Spring failed isn't because of violent suppression. It's because the public's desire for change wasn't government lead and sanctioned!
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# ? Nov 24, 2017 02:07 |
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RandomPauI posted:The reasons why the Arab Spring failed isn't because of violent suppression. It's because the public's desire for change wasn't government lead and sanctioned! Yeah if the public had actually desired government lead then there would be no problem
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# ? Nov 24, 2017 02:54 |
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fits my needs posted:https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/933845994202157058 I wish thomas friedman would just die already, he's such an irredeemable piece of poo poo hack. gently caress that guy. I'm reading the article now. Holy poo poo this loving guy just made a hamilton reference I loving hate this rear end in a top hat. Also I love how this slack jawed piece of poo poo rube walks up to people and thinks he'll get any other response than total support and then he takes that as proof of support. I'm not surprised that the same idiot piece of poo poo assholes who hired brett stephens also hired this guy. THE ARAB SPRING WAS VIOLENTLY RAPED AND MURDERED BY SAUDI ARABIA, THE US, RUSSIA AND IRAN, WHAT IS THIS loving rear end in a top hat EVEN TALKING ABOUT?!?!?! RandomPauI posted:The reasons why the Arab Spring failed isn't because of violent suppression. It's because the public's desire for change wasn't government lead and sanctioned! What this loving hack doesnt understand that because the arab spring was so brutally murdered they've pretty much killed any possibility of peaceful reform, There's GOING to be a violent and completely merciless revolution a couple decades from now that wont be liberal and will absolutely see hundreds of thousands more people killed and everybody who even whiffs support for the current order will be guillotined without trial, this loving rear end in a top hat doesnt realize that the only real chance for a peaceful transition of power has come and gone. the arab democrats and everyone else interested in change (including non-democratic and illiberal forces like the crazed fundamentalists) are already drawing up the lists and groups of people and numbers of officers they'll need to kill to change the region for good. holy poo poo you guys have no loving idea what kind of blood bonanza is on the horizon thanks to the absolute brutality with which arab fascism decided to treat it's people when they tried to let them go easy.
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# ? Nov 24, 2017 03:06 |
I don't want to imagine how bad it will be, but another global recession coupled with more rapid than planned for climate change wont make for a pretty picture.
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# ? Nov 24, 2017 04:20 |
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Al-Saqr posted:I wish thomas friedman would just die already, he's such an irredeemable piece of poo poo hack. gently caress that guy. same. never forget: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3076512 speaking of MBS... Daily Mail posted:EXCLUSIVE: 'American mercenaries are torturing' Saudi elite rounded up by new crown prince - and billionaire Prince Alwaleed was hung upside down 'just to send a message' http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5108651/American-mercenaries-torturing-Saudi-princes.html fuckin lol
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# ? Nov 24, 2017 06:17 |
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What a cool would we would live in if Gaddafi was writing nytimes op eds and Friedman got a knife in the butt.
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# ? Nov 24, 2017 06:34 |
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Yeah, any time the double-think that is the core of American foreign policy is actually communicated in public, it is going to come out as complete nonsense for a reason. I think this isn't the end of the puff pieces we are going to be seeing on MbS (or generally demonizing Iran). I did chuckle about "Iranian over-reach" in Lebanon and Yemen.
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# ? Nov 24, 2017 07:02 |
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guidoanselmi posted:same. never forget: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3076512 It’s the Daily Mail so I wouldn’t get too excited about this being real.
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# ? Nov 24, 2017 11:12 |
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Still early for all the details, but as of now it seems that nearly 200 people have been killed during a terrorist attack on a Sufi mosque in the Sinai. Likely ABM/ISIS responsible. It's a disaster.
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# ? Nov 24, 2017 16:05 |
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Oh what's this? The fascist animals who run Egypt are incompetent pieces of poo poo who are the source of the cancer? Wow. Btw in case you guys forgot Ayman al zawahiri was a direct product of the Egyptian fascist police state torture system.
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# ? Nov 24, 2017 16:35 |
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https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/934029886842458112
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# ? Nov 24, 2017 16:47 |
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Al-Saqr posted:Oh what's this? The fascist animals who run Egypt are incompetent pieces of poo poo who are the source of the cancer? Wow. I generally like you Al-Saqr, but be careful about stringing together too many of those words (fascist, police state, torture, system, etc) or you'll end up sounding like Francis E. Dec, Esq.
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# ? Nov 24, 2017 16:51 |
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Erdogan is OK with Assad now as long as he fights the US backed terrorists PKK. http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/no-place-for-ypg-in-syria-solution-president-erdogan-122972 quote:“We discussed the issue of the Syria national dialogue congress in detail. We, as three countries, will decide on who will be invited to the congress. Sub-commissions established by our foreign ministries will make the necessary studies beforehand,” Erdoğan said, adding that chiefs of general staff and intelligence agencies will contribute if necessary.
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# ? Nov 24, 2017 16:51 |
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Randarkman posted:I generally like you Al-Saqr, but be careful about stringing together too many of those words (fascist, police state, torture, system, etc) or you'll end up sounding like Francis E. Dec, Esq. Ok.
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# ? Nov 24, 2017 16:57 |
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I will say I get a bit about the phrase "fascist animals" because usually it's the fascists calling everyone else animals.
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# ? Nov 24, 2017 16:59 |
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# ? May 25, 2024 14:35 |
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Please do not insult animals or neanderthals by comparing them to fascists. Also please try not to get an all-expenses-paid stay at the Ritz Carlton.
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# ? Nov 24, 2017 17:29 |