|
Volkerball posted:This was at the NCRI(MEK) rally in Paris. Lots of western politicians show up for that thing. Crisis averted. Weird as poo poo seeing an ostensibly leftist, previously vehemently anti-american literal cult getting Neocon approval these days. I'm sure a bunch of Saddam collaborators will be embraced with open arms in Tehran. 
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2018 08:58
|
|
so that means I can be a cheapskate and post about posting instead of having some wit or spending any more on comedy avs for people. Which I'm also incapable of. Comedy.
|
|
| # ? May 24, 2024 13:15 |
|
|
pro starcraft loser posted:Why is this not getting more press? I heard a single snippet about it like on Friday, nothing since. Trump didn't tweet about it. Retarded Goatee posted:Weird as poo poo seeing an ostensibly leftist, previously vehemently anti-american literal cult getting Neocon approval these days. I'm sure a bunch of Saddam collaborators will be embraced with open arms in Tehran. It's just an opportunity to make a token gesture towards the moral reasons for opposing the Iranian regime. "We stand with the people of Iran" type of deal. You won't hear a mention of the MEK or Rajavi 364 days of the year from people like Bolton, Giuliani, and Howard Dean, who have all attended the event recently. In the years I've been keeping up with developments in Iran, I've seen 1 instance of what could be described as MEK activism in Iran, and it was just a dude filming himself putting up a picture of Maryam Rajavi on a bridge. In all of the actual protests over the last year, I have not seen a single reference to her, the MEK, or anyone that appears to be deliberately wearing yellow to signify themselves as aligned with the MEK. Despite the fact that the annual gathering in Paris is far and away the largest gathering of Iranian dissidents in the world, I don't think there's anything whatsoever to suggest they have any sort of influence in Iran. Regardless of their history, at the conference, even from Rajavi herself, all you really get are generic nods towards democratic reform from all the speakers and rounds of applause from a lot of people who are being paid to be there. Nobody is really married to the MEK or their platform, whatever the hell it is these days. Nobody gives a poo poo about them. I find that the Barbara Slavin's and Trita Parsi's of the world that focus on legitimizing the reformists are the ones who spend the most time discussing the MEK and drawing a bunch of conclusions from western politicians going to their conference to say "I think the Iranian people deserve freedom!  " Truth is if the west was looking to influence the aftermath of a hypothetical Iranian revolution, it'd most likely be by backing Reza Pahlavi as the figurehead of what would be framed as the first steps towards a new secular democracy. Not the MEK.
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2018 09:42
|
|
|
Volkerball posted:Trump didn't tweet about it. This is actually a pretty good summary. A bit unsure about reinstalling the monarchy, but you would sure as poo poo go with the most pliant despot around, without the MEKs toxic reputation at home. It would probably also make the Chalabi debacle in Iraq seem like a masterstroke by comparison.
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2018 10:12
|
|
|
Volkerball posted:Truth is if the west was looking to influence the aftermath of a hypothetical Iranian revolution, it'd most likely be by backing Reza Pahlavi as the figurehead of what would be framed as the first steps towards a new secular democracy. Ahahahaahahahahaa
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2018 10:50
|
|
|
fishmech posted:Over the course of the late 1920s into the late 1930s and a bit earlier, nearly 3.5 million people from the area around and including Oklahoma fled to California and another few million to states around California. The population of California was only 3,426,861 at the 1920 census. Huh! I’d never thought about that. And were people super racist against those drat Oakies? Did it have any lasting impact on social structures, like does that explain why Central Valley is super conservative? Sorry pretty OT, maybe I can just read about it on my own. VVV [several posts down to Fishmech]: Not replying further to derail the thread further, but thanks for the info. Also by "racism" I mean the way "racism" now is used in the world, to mean prejudice against any ethnic or cultural group, regardless of whether or not they are a "race". Like, people use "racist" to describe people who are prejudiced against Latinos and Arabs, even though it makes zero loving sense since like, Latinos can be anything from east Asian Peruvians to African Venezuelans to Bolivian Native Americans to Aryan-as-gently caress Argentine-Germans. Saladman fucked around with this message at 21:57 on Jul 3, 2018 |
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2018 11:43
|
|
|
The only legitimate ruling party in Iran would be a Marxist-Leninist government led by the Tudeh Party. Reinstalling old bourgeois elements is no better than the current regime.
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2018 11:56
|
|
|
Retarded Goatee posted:This is actually a pretty good summary. A bit unsure about reinstalling the monarchy, but you would sure as poo poo go with the most pliant despot around, without the MEKs toxic reputation at home. It would probably also make the Chalabi debacle in Iraq seem like a masterstroke by comparison. There's definitely a monarchist contingent among current revolutionaries, but I think they are a small, albeit loud, group of kids that are just lashing out in the most militant way they can think of. Not just against the government, but against the older generation for allowing Iran to become a theocracy. And you can see the think pieces now coming out from older, Iranian academics talking about how these drat millennials are dumb as poo poo and don't know what they're saying. Same sort of dynamic you see all the time in these situations. I don't think that can be translated into an actual real support for reinstating the shah. I think it'd be much more likely to see a multi-party democracy with Pahlavi leveraging his anti-theocratic credentials into becoming a prime minister or president or whatever they want to call it. Seems to be more in line with Pahlavi's view of how Iran should move forward. Right now there's literally no other opposition figure people are rallying around. That being said, I think there's no way the Iranian people can unseat the IRGC. They may be able to kick the clerical establishment from the top floor of the tower, but the structure would still remain standing. While there's a lot of "My life only for Iran, not for Iraq, Syria etc" type chants, I don't think people are that radically against Iranian foreign policy. There's still a lot of hero worship for the military going back to the Iran/Iraq war, and a lot of right wing nationalism. It's the theocratic control and economic mismanagement that really seems to be the driver. Theoretically, the military could ride that lightning and provide some token economic reforms in the name of rooting out corruption, get rid of the mandatory hijab and some other strict religious mandates, and allow the clergy to remain a very influential force within Iranian politics. I think the vast majority of people would be ok with that. But I think the political executions in the late 80's pale in comparison to the lengths the IRGC and the government are willing to go if they faced real domestic threat, and the louder and more demanding protesters become will be directly proportionate to the amount of people who are killed. A year ago I would've said there is little to no political appetite in Iran to open that box, but times are changing. People are getting madder, and things aren't going to get better any time soon. It's hard to predict what the future holds. Volkerball fucked around with this message at 12:11 on Jul 3, 2018 |
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2018 12:08
|
|
|
Volkerball posted:There's definitely a monarchist contingent among current revolutionaries, but I think they are a small, albeit loud, group of kids that are just lashing out in the most militant way they can think of. Not just against the government, but against the older generation for allowing Iran to become a theocracy. And you can see the think pieces now coming out from older, Iranian academics talking about how these drat millennials are dumb as poo poo and don't know what they're saying. Same sort of dynamic you see all the time in these situations. I don't think that can be translated into an actual real support for reinstating the shah. I think it'd be much more likely to see a multi-party democracy with Pahlavi leveraging his anti-theocratic credentials into becoming a prime minister or president or whatever they want to call it. Seems to be more in line with Pahlavi's view of how Iran should move forward. Right now there's literally no other opposition figure people are rallying around. Imagine how much of a dumb goon you would have to be to fawn at Reza Pahlavi and notorious gestapo-larpers SAVAK when you can just scroll a little further and find Mohammed Mossadegh as a historical figure to rally around.
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2018 14:12
|
|
|
The shah's legacy is a bit more difficult to bury than Mossadegh's. Khomeini despised them both. There also isn't a figure like Mossadegh's grandson out trying to capitalize on the name right now like Reza Pahlavi that I know of. When it comes to these younger people, I think it's just a matter of looking back on those old pictures of Iranian women wearing dresses with no hijab, and reading about people drinking and doing what they wanted without the morality police trying to get up in their poo poo, which is something the Iranian youths all deal with. I'm sure many know someone who was arrested and or executed for some minor drug offense given Iran leads the world in executions per capita. Their families work for IRGC run factories and are lucky to get paid while the key figures among their supposed moral leaders want for nothing. They get lectured about the evils of western culture and modernity by a government that can't even provide them water. Anyone who speaks out about it gets thrown in prison and abused. And the people telling them that the shah was horrible are the ones complicit in the status quo. I'm not really surprised that the younger rebellious sorts would respond to their parents arguments on the subject with "what the gently caress do you know," and draw their own conclusions about that time period.
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2018 14:39
|
|
|
Volkerball posted:They get lectured about the evils of western culture and modernity by a government that can't even provide them water. And Trump's policy of hitting Iran with the "harshest sanctions ever" and trying to basically besiege the country by using sanctions against any country that dares to trade with Iran is the perfect way to legitimize the government's message and explain any shortage. They can just say that It's America's Fault™ and they wouldn't even be wrong.
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2018 15:34
|
|
|
Cat Mattress posted:And Trump's policy of hitting Iran with the "harshest sanctions ever" and trying to basically besiege the country by using sanctions against any country that dares to trade with Iran is the perfect way to legitimize the government's message and explain any shortage. They can just say that It's America's Fault™ and they wouldn't even be wrong. You're looking at it through the perspective of your experiences and your political environment. If you grew up in Iran and had the disdain for its government that you have for yours, you'd take that claim about as seriously as if the US said the water shortage had nothing to do with the sanctions.
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2018 15:50
|
|
|
Volkerball posted:You're looking at it through the perspective of your experiences and your political environment. If you grew up in Iran and had the disdain for its government that you have for yours, you'd take that claim about as seriously as if the US said the water shortage had nothing to do with the sanctions. We Will Be Greeted As Liberators
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2018 16:48
|
|
|
Volkerball is full of poo poo, utterly unsurprised at the stanning for the Shah. In real news, looks like India bitched out and folder under American pressure to not buy Iranian oil: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/India-Folds-Under-Pressure-Halts-Iranian-Oil-Imports.html Alienating potential allies because your foreign policy on Iran is driven by the Israel and KSA lobbies is awesome.
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2018 17:32
|
|
|
Given how India depends on Iran to avoid being fully encircled by China, giving Iran no other ally than China seems like a really stupid move from Modi.
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2018 18:39
|
|
|
Cat Mattress posted:Given how India depends on Iran to avoid being fully encircled by China, giving Iran no other ally than China seems like a really stupid move from Modi. Iran isn't going to write off India entirely just because the US threatened India into submission. Iran still has use for sympathetic countries trying to stand in the way of any potential US invasion, or even for those countries to try to start working toward an alternative to US global economic primacy since we're so clearly abusing that power now.
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2018 18:55
|
|
|
Sinteres posted:Iran isn't going to write off India entirely just because the US threatened India into submission. Iran still has use for sympathetic countries trying to stand in the way of any potential US invasion, or even for those countries to try to start working toward an alternative to US global economic primacy since we're so clearly abusing that power now. Wait, when has the US ever not abused that power since the end of WW2.
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2018 18:57
|
|
|
MiddleOne posted:Wait, when has the US ever not abused that power since the end of WW2. We've dramatically ramped up our use of sanctions since the 90's. I'm not saying we've always been a benevolent superpower or anything, just that threatening to cut off countries from global markets if they even do business with another country we don't like is bonkers and a major escalation. In other news, it looks like Team Trump was in contact with Team al-Assad pretty much immediately after the election:  https://www.emptywheel.net/2018/07/03/putting-a-face-mine-to-the-risks-posed-by-gop-games-on-mueller-investigation/
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2018 19:01
|
|
|
I'm trying to make sense of the Iranian bomb plot. I identified the potential for this in the post-deal world but this plot doesn't make sense to me. This doesn't make any sense in terms of timing or target, to me. The timing is right before a diplomatic tour of EU & the target is not as soft/civilian as past Iranian terror targets. In the past, terror was during a tit-for-tat with Israeli/MEK assassinations within Iran. Even the 500 g amount is not very effective.  Obviously you can use fragmentation to improve this. Or, hell, it's about time to start seeing drone terror attacks and 500 g is a reasonable payload for an OTS quadcopter. But if you're attacking a large rally of opposition where there will be inevitable political blowback, you might as well go for the gold and ensure lethality toward intended VIP targets. With a lot of PR being expended against Iran by KSA, et al, this fits in with the narrative perfectly. I'm pretty sympathetic to claims of a false flag here but I'm looking forward to reading more as details emerge. guidoanselmi fucked around with this message at 20:24 on Jul 3, 2018 |
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2018 20:22
|
|
|
Saladman posted:Huh! I’d never thought about that. And were people super racist against those drat Oakies? Did it have any lasting impact on social structures, like does that explain why Central Valley is super conservative? Sorry pretty OT, maybe I can just read about it on my own. You wouldn't call it racism (although boy it definitely got extra harsh for those migrants coming in who also happened to be of another race) but there was all sorts of measures against the various migrants, including things like campaigns to keep the kids out of local schools and all that. As to it being why certain parts of California are so conservative today, that's hard to judge because California as a whole used to be a lot more conservative all over. And a lot of the people involved in this migration would end up in various semi-temporary camps for a decade or more before finally managing to get into real housing or buying their own farms elsewhere too. It's a pretty big topic, and a lot of it folds into the great exodus from the the rural areas into cities and suburbs starting in the 1910s as well.
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2018 20:23
|
|
|
All this lost Roman talk reminds me that all I really want in life is an initiation into the Eleusinian Mysteries.
|
|
#
?
Jul 4, 2018 04:19
|
|
|
Austria is lifting the diplomatic immunity of the Iranian diplomat who was arrested in connection with the bomb plot. Still not very many details. https://mobile.twitter.com/WalidPhares/status/1014233801524989952
|
|
#
?
Jul 4, 2018 07:06
|
|
|
Volkerball posted:Austria is lifting the diplomatic immunity of the Iranian diplomat who was arrested in connection with the bomb plot. Still not very many details. they didn't even have to 9/11 to have a justification
|
|
#
?
Jul 4, 2018 08:14
|
|
|
Is anybody plugged into what's happening in Armenia right now? They just seemed to have had a spontaneous bottom up revolution and I can't find any good sources analyzing what happened. Just news articles stating the basic facts of what happened.
|
|
#
?
Jul 4, 2018 10:10
|
|
|
Yadoppsi posted:Is anybody plugged into what's happening in Armenia right now? They just seemed to have had a spontaneous bottom up revolution and I can't find any good sources analyzing what happened. Just news articles stating the basic facts of what happened. I didn't follow it, but someone who does sent me this link on another forum: https://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2018/05/04/armenias-people-power-revolution-russia-and-the-western-bloc/ This might also be informative: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/armenia/2018-05-17/why-didnt-putin-interfere-armenias-velvet-revolution
|
|
#
?
Jul 4, 2018 13:00
|
|
|
Jihadists getting BTFO in Daraa 
|
|
#
?
Jul 5, 2018 02:36
|
|
|
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mw8mHWu1n3s
|
|
#
?
Jul 5, 2018 03:05
|
|
|
Retarded Goatee posted:Imagine how much of a dumb goon you would have to be to fawn at Reza Pahlavi and notorious gestapo-larpers SAVAK when you can just scroll a little further and find Mohammed Mossadegh as a historical figure to rally around. there's a crucial characteristic that Reza Pahlavi has and Mohammad Mossadegh does not
|
|
#
?
Jul 5, 2018 05:25
|
|
|
Darkman Fanpage posted:Jihadists getting BTFO in Daraa Yup praise the lion assad for hiw anti-terrorist operations
|
|
#
?
Jul 5, 2018 06:55
|
|
|
Seized equipment I guess, but from who?
|
|
#
?
Jul 5, 2018 09:55
|
|
|
GreyjoyBastard posted:there's a crucial characteristic that Reza Pahlavi has and Mohammad Mossadegh does not is it the authoritarian strongman appeal?
|
|
#
?
Jul 5, 2018 10:02
|
|
|
Retarded Goatee posted:is it the authoritarian strongman appeal? Don't really know enough about ole Reza, but contrasted with the other I imagine it's moreso: "Authoritarian lapdog of the US." Same poo poo that made the CIA invest in Saddam Hussein, before that turned out so drat well hurrr.
|
|
#
?
Jul 5, 2018 10:22
|
|
|
Retarded Goatee posted:Imagine how much of a dumb goon you would have to be to fawn at Reza Pahlavi and notorious gestapo-larpers SAVAK when you can just scroll a little further and find Mohammed Mossadegh as a historical figure to rally around. No more dumb than the retarded goons cheering for a guy engaged in an active project of demographic engineering to eliminate future threats to his rule. https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2018/06/30/how-a-victorious-bashar-al-assad-is-changing-syria Assad’s regime calls on Syrian refugees to return home - problem: the regime destroyed most of those homes and will seek to punish perceived dissenters in the most brutal ways. A key audience for Assad’s regime is Europe’s growing far right - they’ll love this message from him http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Mi...campaign=buffer
|
|
#
?
Jul 5, 2018 10:56
|
|
|
Retarded Goatee posted:is it the authoritarian strongman appeal? Well he's alive for starters.
|
|
#
?
Jul 5, 2018 10:59
|
|
|
Absurd Alhazred posted:Didn't know what thread to bring this up in: Nicholas Talib Lol. How is that superior genetico-cultural (A term he invented) genes of Phoenicians going for him?
|
|
#
?
Jul 5, 2018 11:00
|
|
|
Grape posted:It's coming off way more orientalist to not actually examine and be critical with Middle Eastern ethnic controversy, like it's some mysterious gordian knot that outsiders can never interpret. You have no idea what you are talking about stop dude. The most sectarian and hateful bigots you will ever meet in life are middle easterners like Talib whom view themselves as superior to the rest of the "Rats" around them. They make Trump look inclusive. Joey Ayoub Summarised what Nasim Talib actually is: https://twitter.com/joeyayoub/status/1014813949836038145 Savy Saracen salad fucked around with this message at 11:28 on Jul 5, 2018 |
|
#
?
Jul 5, 2018 11:07
|
|
|
Savy Saracen salad posted:No more dumb than the retarded goons cheering for a guy engaged in an active project of demographic engineering to eliminate future threats to his rule. The fact that these same far right morons don't realize, that this means there's precisely zero chance of, in their own words, 'refugees going home' now, thanks to this crap, is just icing on the cake of their idiocy I suppose.
|
|
#
?
Jul 5, 2018 12:05
|
|
|
CrazyLoon posted:The fact that these same far right morons don't realize, that this means there's precisely zero chance of, in their own words, 'refugees going home' now, thanks to this crap, is just icing on the cake of their idiocy I suppose. As soon as the open warfare stops, there's going to be a lot of pressure in European countries (and presumably in neighboring countries) to start deporting them, and if Assad's running a PR campaign welcoming refugees back as part of an effort to re-enter the international community, that's only going to add to that pressure. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 13:06 on Jul 5, 2018 |
|
#
?
Jul 5, 2018 13:01
|
|
|
Sinteres posted:As soon as the open warfare stops, there's going to be a lot of pressure in European countries (and presumably in neighboring countries) to start deporting them, and if Assad's running a PR campaign welcoming refugees back as part of an effort to re-enter the international community, that's only going to add to that pressure. Yeah, voluntary (and inevitably involuntary) deportation of Syrians is inevitably going to pop up in every government with a dominant nationalist party at the pace that everything is going nazi.
|
|
#
?
Jul 5, 2018 13:07
|
|
|
Retarded Goatee posted:is it the authoritarian strongman appeal? It's being alive in 2018.
|
|
#
?
Jul 5, 2018 13:13
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 24, 2024 13:15 |
|
|
I'm a huge dummy
|
|
#
?
Jul 5, 2018 13:21
|
|