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https://twitter.com/nick_rhodes_nz/status/1164107386757320712?s=20
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Aug 21, 2019 11:21
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Scikar posted:Apparently they are legit, but they used some methodology tweaks, thread here from a YouGov guy explaining it: https://twitter.com/anthonyjwells/status/1164107051297050624 Polling to determine an "accurate" is always hard, even if you are doing it with the best of intentions, due to such decisions about methodological tweaks. And they cannot predict the future - how people respond to outcoming GE campaigns. Does that mean the brexit party voters have a weak base and will be easy for the tories to capture, or just people taking the poll are lazy enough to take a Tory option if a brexit party one isn't there but still would rather vote brexit?
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Aug 21, 2019 11:24
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Rarity posted:The only polls that matter are exit polls. This really is the truth and you all should have learned this lesson from the previous GE. I mean come on, almost all of the polls beforehand were predicting an absolute thrashing of labour but we all know how that turned out.
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Aug 21, 2019 11:28
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BzuKaTuk_lw
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Aug 21, 2019 11:29
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It me, I'm the reply guy posting 10 tweets about how shipping containers that people live in have windows
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Aug 21, 2019 11:43
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Some shipping container homes are pretty cool. I'd be willing to bet that these aren't what homeless children are being stuffed in though.
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Aug 21, 2019 11:53
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One of the most fashionable places in York is the shipping container bar thingy.
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Aug 21, 2019 11:54
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Guavanaut posted:I'd be willing to bet that these aren't what homeless children are being stuffed in though. Well maybe, if it belongs to a Tory MP
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Aug 21, 2019 11:54
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Aphex- posted:This really is the truth and you all should have learned this lesson from the previous GE. I mean come on, almost all of the polls beforehand were predicting an absolute thrashing of labour but we all know how that turned out. I definitely wouldn't want to draw conclusions from one poll, or even take much beyond a very vague sense of trends from multiple polls, but I do think there's a danger of people here being way too blase about bad polling because of 2017. Yes, Labour did an amazing job in the campaign (which they still don't get credit for from the commentariat), but the context to any new election will be different. Labour managed, pretty successfully, to pivot the election discussion away from Brexit to heavily focused on domestic policy, which the Tories didn't seem to anticipate (e.g. the dementia tax). This time it's pretty clear that Johnson is already laying the ground work for a domestic policy platform come any election, big on tax cuts and spending giveaways. There's also the factor that Corbyn/McDonnell don't get the chance to be introduced to much of the electorate in the same way again and there's been an extra 2 years of utter nonsense being slung at them, with anti-semitism sticking in a way that nothing pre-2017 quite did. That doesn't mean we need to panic or anything, but there's a real smugness about the idea that the 2017 bounce from bad polling to 40% is a trifle to achieve under any conditions at all.
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Aug 21, 2019 12:02
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post ur map
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Aug 21, 2019 12:03
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Jaeluni Asjil posted:I'm being Mrs Dim this morning but I have to ask - what is an 'election grid'? Apologies for the late reply, but it was a Blair thing where they would release some pre-planned piece of news each day to dominate the news cycle, along with covering up expected bad news with announcements. e: Or at least try to, but they did moderately well at it. Private Speech fucked around with this message at 12:16 on Aug 21, 2019 |
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Aug 21, 2019 12:12
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Lol https://twitter.com/RaynerSkyNews/status/1164133074692726784?s=19
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Aug 21, 2019 12:15
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Lol wat
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Aug 21, 2019 12:16
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(Northern Powerhouse)
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Aug 21, 2019 12:17
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this is so cursed i think everyone needs to see it https://twitter.com/inmybabyarmz/status/1164042360591773696?s=20
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Aug 21, 2019 12:22
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Jose posted:this is so cursed i think everyone needs to see it Thanks, I hate it 
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Aug 21, 2019 12:25
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Jose posted:this is so cursed i think everyone needs to see it Thanks I have a lot of cancer now.
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Aug 21, 2019 12:27
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that's real bad, OP.
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Aug 21, 2019 12:36
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I watched the first five seconds without sound because I’m in work and I’m experience a creeping dread
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Aug 21, 2019 12:36
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Junior G-man posted:Thanks I have a lot of cancer now. 
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Aug 21, 2019 12:40
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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/taxbeating/article-7376787/Self-employed-face-losing-homes-innocently-using-tax-loophole.html Sorry for the Mail link, but I don’t get this at all. These people just didn’t pay any income tax for years or even decades and we’re meant to feel sorry for them? Why the gently caress are 150 MPs trying to get them some kind of special waiver?
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Aug 21, 2019 12:46
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Niric posted:I definitely wouldn't want to draw conclusions from one poll, or even take much beyond a very vague sense of trends from multiple polls, but I do think there's a danger of people here being way too blase about bad polling because of 2017. Yes, Labour did an amazing job in the campaign (which they still don't get credit for from the commentariat), but the context to any new election will be different. Labour managed, pretty successfully, to pivot the election discussion away from Brexit to heavily focused on domestic policy, which the Tories didn't seem to anticipate (e.g. the dementia tax). This time it's pretty clear that Johnson is already laying the ground work for a domestic policy platform come any election, big on tax cuts and spending giveaways. There's also the factor that Corbyn/McDonnell don't get the chance to be introduced to much of the electorate in the same way again and there's been an extra 2 years of utter nonsense being slung at them, with anti-semitism sticking in a way that nothing pre-2017 quite did. On the other hand, what the hell is the Tory message going to be? “Vote for us and we’ll immediately institute no deal, destroying the country!” That will be popular in the more insane parts of the country, but far from all. Are Tory MPs from Remain constituencies really going to run on that? An election campaign threatens to crack the Tories like an egg. They’ve completely abandoned the traditional (if bollocks) framing of the Conservatives as the party of stable economic sense, and made a party run by a “radical Marxist” look like the steady hand on the tiller. Labour will be running a campaign made up of the popular positions of funding public services well and appropriately taxing the rich plus a very reasonable Brexit solution versus, almost literally, “DEHUMANISE AND FACE TO BLOODSHED”. Even the centrist commentariat is coming around to the realisation that the choice is between Corbyn and No Deal.
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Aug 21, 2019 12:48
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peanut- posted:https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/taxbeating/article-7376787/Self-employed-face-losing-homes-innocently-using-tax-loophole.html Lol I think someone in this thread just advised jose to do this the other day?
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Aug 21, 2019 12:52
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That poll is definitely a massive jump in a ~week from: https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1161020956854358017?s=20 But apparently they didn't ask about the Brexit party at all: https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1164112695882330112?s=20
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Aug 21, 2019 12:53
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As if I needed reasons to not watch The Simpsons.
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Aug 21, 2019 12:57
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I feel like my brain is melting from reading this insane screed https://twitter.com/MattGertz/status/1164141943665897473?s=19
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Aug 21, 2019 13:03
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Aramoro posted:I think the big issue out of that is not if you can fire them, but can you legally even employ them at that stage. As a euro who is currently looking for work I should probably stop reading this thread, it's not good for my mental health. Also why I get so much time to post lately. Private Speech fucked around with this message at 13:21 on Aug 21, 2019 |
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Aug 21, 2019 13:06
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Excuse me while I clutch my pearls.... Chief Inspector for Manchester City View https://twitter.com/CherieButtle/status/1162766534344921097?s=20 In case she zaps it: 
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Aug 21, 2019 13:08
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e: ^^^^replies good  Uh I'm p sure sacking people on the basis of nationality is very loving illegal even after we leave the EU (assuming they're legally allowed to work in the UK) gently caress I hate my country sometimes, I'm really sorry EU comrades  Tesseraction posted:I feel like my brain is melting from reading this insane screed Wonder how long until he starts encouraging American Jews to be more like Israeli Jews in terms of their residence status
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Aug 21, 2019 13:15
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Comrade Fakename posted:On the other hand, what the hell is the Tory message going to be? “Vote for us and we’ll immediately institute no deal, destroying the country!” That will be popular in the more insane parts of the country, but far from all. Are Tory MPs from Remain constituencies really going to run on that? An election campaign threatens to crack the Tories like an egg. They’ve completely abandoned the traditional (if bollocks) framing of the Conservatives as the party of stable economic sense, and made a party run by a “radical Marxist” look like the steady hand on the tiller. It's going to depend a lot on when the election is. If it's before 31st Oct (highly unlikely I'd guess) then the message will be something along the lines of "Fed up of Brexit? Boris will finish the job." If it's post-31st Oct, the message will be more like "Boris delivered Brexit as promised, now let him make Britain Great Again." I think you're being overly optimistic about the zeitgeist being the Tories have/will crash the economy; this isn't a Labour in 2010 situation where there's been a massive financial crash and 2 years for its effects to be felt by a broad cross section of society. Labour can't run on a equivalent platform to the Tories' 2010 devastatingly effective "Labour spent all the pounds" - a message that's clear, simple and plays into deeply embedded assumptions about each party (EDIT: and worked again, to ever better effect, in 2015). Something like "the Tories did a Brexit and now we're hosed" might be true, but I don't think it works in anything like the same way, and I don't think Labour are (or will be) viewed as a "steady hand" by many beyond current Labour voters. That doesn't mean I think we're hosed come an election, but I'm very, very skeptical that the Tories are in as bad electoral shape and you're suggesting Niric fucked around with this message at 13:19 on Aug 21, 2019 |
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Aug 21, 2019 13:15
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Tesseraction posted:I feel like my brain is melting from reading this insane screed how about this one https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1163972607714242560
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Aug 21, 2019 13:15
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Borrovan posted:Uh I'm p sure sacking people on the basis of nationality is very loving illegal even after we leave the EU (assuming they're legally allowed to work in the UK) Let's take a little bet on how long that lasts in the Glorious Reborn British Empire.
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Aug 21, 2019 13:16
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Borrovan posted:
he already tells american jews that their home is israel not the US
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Aug 21, 2019 13:16
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Jose posted:how about this one How the gently caress is this guy the favourite for the Dems candidacy?
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Aug 21, 2019 13:19
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The guardian in being loving poo poo shocker https://twitter.com/Hadas_Gold/status/1164146488773136384?s=19
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Aug 21, 2019 13:19
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Rarity posted:How the gently caress is this guy the favourite for the Dems candidacy? US FBPE brigade.
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Aug 21, 2019 13:20
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quote != edit
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Aug 21, 2019 13:21
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Rarity posted:How the gently caress is this guy the favourite for the Dems candidacy? Everybody desperately wants to go back to the "normal" Obama years.
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Aug 21, 2019 13:21
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Junior G-man posted:Let's take a little bet on how long that lasts in the Glorious Reborn British Empire. Junior G-man posted:Let's take a little bet on how long that lasts in the Glorious Reborn British Empire.
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Aug 21, 2019 13:24
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Borrovan posted:Eh we can't change those laws as long as we're still in the Council of Europe I don't think the CoE will do much to stop BoJo et al. if it came down to it ...
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Aug 21, 2019 13:25
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