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Herstory Begins Now posted:Given all the pipelines and shipping routes involved in getting oil out of the ME, for all of these to be shut down would be uh something extremely unprecedented. Basically, the uncertainty that part of the oil production network will go offline is baked into the price of oil Mine the straight of Hormuz and blow up just one tanker. That would freak out the whole energy market.
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Sep 18, 2019 02:29
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Kanine posted:ok is anyone naive enough to believe that the democrats wouldnt be totally cool with a war with iran if it came to that? A war would basically be a godsend for the GOP since Americans still seem to view Republicans as more reliable military leaders for some Godforsaken reason. I'm inclined to disagree, but Democrats disappoint me all the time.
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Sep 18, 2019 04:13
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Kanine posted:ok is anyone naive enough to believe that the democrats wouldnt be totally cool with a war with iran if it came to that? Uhh, Looking at this issue at scale one side really doesn’t want a war and the other one kind of does?
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Sep 18, 2019 04:14
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War is inevitable with Iran, it’s just a matter of when.
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Sep 18, 2019 04:21
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Tab8715 posted:Does this still qualify this event as a enormously successful military operation? Yes. It was a successful and very damaging attack against a high-value (and valid!) strategic target. The Houthis are waging a war here, and winning.
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Sep 18, 2019 04:52
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Conspiratiorist posted:Yes. It was a successful and very damaging attack against a high-value (and valid!) strategic target. Is there real evidence this was a ingenious low-tech attack or did Iran just give them a high tech missile with instructions?
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Sep 18, 2019 04:54
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The Houthis have been using missiles and drones since the start of the conflict, have their own experts which to my understanding where the ones who originally pushed them towards building suicide drones, and while their most sophisticated platforms are derivative of Iranian designs, construction is for the most part indigenous + whatever commercial parts they can sneak through the blockade. They've also beenn executing precision strikes with unmanned UAVs against value targets like grounded planes and VIPs for years, and getting increasingly better at it. ED: just a couple months ago they loaded iirc one of their Qasefs with anti-personnel munitions, flew that baby 30+ kms through air defenses and right into the brass at a parade in Aden, nailing over two dozen military personnel and a top commander, showing the Saudi proxy that nowhere is safe. Conspiratiorist fucked around with this message at 05:07 on Sep 18, 2019 |
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Sep 18, 2019 05:00
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Conspiratiorist posted:The Houthis have been using missiles and drones since the start of the conflict, have their own experts which to my understanding where the ones who originally pushed them towards building suicide drones, and while their most sophisticated platforms are derivative of Iranian designs, construction is for the most part indigenous + whatever commercial parts they can sneak through the blockade. That’s pretty freaking innovative. Goddamn.
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Sep 18, 2019 05:16
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Clearly this is a Drone arms race going on. I wonder what potential countermeasures can be made against war drones in the future? Signal jamming?
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Sep 18, 2019 05:20
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I would suspect they’d be relatively easy to shoot down with a full rifle round?
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Sep 18, 2019 05:22
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Kanine posted:ok is anyone naive enough to believe that the democrats wouldnt be totally cool with a war with iran if it came to that? Back in the 2004 elections, during the 3rd debate, John Kerry gave a quick answer to an innocuous question and then used his last 45 seconds to go on about how "by the way, I'd totally attack Iran if it turned out to be justified." No context, no other mention of Iran, just an "oh by the way, I'd totally bomb Iran."
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Sep 18, 2019 05:29
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Grouchio posted:Clearly this is a Drone arms race going on. I wonder what potential countermeasures can be made against war drones in the future? Signal jamming? 
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Sep 18, 2019 05:32
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Grouchio posted:Clearly this is a Drone arms race going on. I wonder what potential countermeasures can be made against war drones in the future? Signal jamming? ive seen netguns, shotguns, various Wile E. Coyote poo poo suggested, it all sounds fine i guess Tab8715 posted:I would suspect they’d be relatively easy to shoot down with a full rifle round? it really depends heavily on the size of the drone and how fast its going. i would probably compare it to skeet shooting? in which case an ar15 isnt optimum Kanine fucked around with this message at 05:40 on Sep 18, 2019 |
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Sep 18, 2019 05:35
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  something that's a bit of a steampunk cyberpunk mashup is ive seen people suggest using punt guns which are essentially massive blunderbusses that were used for commercial duck harvesting.
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Sep 18, 2019 05:38
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mllaneza posted:Back in the 2004 elections, during the 3rd debate, John Kerry gave a quick answer to an innocuous question and then used his last 45 seconds to go on about how "by the way, I'd totally attack Iran if it turned out to be justified." No context, no other mention of Iran, just an "oh by the way, I'd totally bomb Iran." People say may stupid things but which party right now is showing restraint?
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Sep 18, 2019 05:38
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Grouchio posted:Clearly this is a Drone arms race going on. I wonder what potential countermeasures can be made against war drones in the future? Signal jamming? There's all kinds of stuff being developed, ranging from electronic warfare to standard AA systems. IIRC the Russians in Syria have had a good degree of success using the Pantsir-S1 against low tech drone swarm attacks, which were deployed after a drone grenade attack hit a bunch of jets in a Syrian airfield. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantsir_missile_system It's basically a truck with a Radar, missiles and AA guns mounted on top, which offers point defense in a 20-30 km range and can engage several targets at the same time.
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Sep 18, 2019 05:41
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Less Claypool posted:War is inevitable with Iran, it’s just a matter of when. Maybe under a Biden Administration. Trump is rather resist. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump...ingawful.com%2F
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Sep 18, 2019 05:55
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The Israelis have a system where they can disconnect a drone from the operator and gain remote control of it. Why shoot down or destroy a drone when you can hijack it?
Less Claypool fucked around with this message at 06:09 on Sep 18, 2019 |
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Sep 18, 2019 06:06
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https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1174173959924924417 The dog and pony show soon to come. edit The guesstimated radar track currently looks something like this. https://twitter.com/EllemanIISS/status/1174011827048636416 At least one of the radars in Riyad are pointed south to detect ballistic missiles from the south. Also as of 2017 a new radar would give it 360 coverage but I don't think the Saudis have that. But what you really need to detect these sorts of drone attacks is an AWACs up at the time and in range. (Oh what is this formation flying low off a regular path) edit 2 A small thread on the air defenses at the site. https://twitter.com/DuitsyWasHere/status/1174186756708679681 One thing from the video of the attack itself I don't remember hearing is gunfire. Mainly just the drone of the engine then boom. RaffyTaffy fucked around with this message at 06:49 on Sep 18, 2019 |
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Sep 18, 2019 06:11
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Squalid posted:I'm not an engineer, but I feel like you are understating the difficulty involved. I have some familiarity with small drones, and I think with a bit of trial and error I could put a large quadcopter together in a weekend using off the shelf parts. These missiles though are definitely on a different scale of complexity and necessary expertise. I mean its likely the engines and electronics were all off the shelf parts but you can tell the body is all custom built. You can't just buy 3+ meter long rocket superstructures on Amazon, these things required at least a moderately sized professional workshop to construct. If they were fired from Yemen they would have also been operating near the edge of the maximum theoretical range feasible given the engine and fuel load, according to that Arms Control Wonk article. Actually achieving that performance is going to require serious design and foresight, this isn't a project you can just wing. Especially since they did it at least 19 times over. dude yemen is a country with 30 million people. I think they might have a workshop or two. jesus christ.
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Sep 18, 2019 14:54
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Trump is saying he’s putting more sanctions on Iran but gave no specifics so it may mean nothing
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Sep 18, 2019 15:06
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FlamingLiberal posted:Trump is saying he’s putting more sanctions on Iran but gave no specifics so it may mean nothing
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Sep 18, 2019 15:25
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I'm glad he specified that he meant the country of Iran, because it might have been confusing otherwise. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1174305447513186304 Rent-A-Cop posted:He's going to block Rouhani on Twitter. Rouhani does seem to be having trouble getting a visa to attend the UN General Assembly, which is a pretty serious diplomatic violation if the US doesn't issue it.
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Sep 18, 2019 15:25
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Kanine posted:it really depends heavily on the size of the drone and how fast its going. i would probably compare it to skeet shooting? in which case an ar15 isnt optimum Host a skeet shooting tournament, give the top 5 a position in the military.
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Sep 18, 2019 15:29
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Sinteres posted:I'm glad he specified that he meant the country of Iran, because it might have been confusing otherwise. I guess putting "I hereby order" and "the country of" in the same tweet would have been a little much, even for Trump.
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Sep 18, 2019 15:46
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Here's the wreckage evidence KSA is presenting to claim Iranian involvement: https://twitter.com/Stone_SkyNews/status/1174326457247703041?s=19 I've seen a few defense blogs theorize that the attack was a mix of UAVs and QUDS-1 cruise missiles specifically because their different speeds and altitudes would make them very hard to intercept. Combined with the attack potentially coming from Iran itself and taking the circular route to avoid Saudi air defenses to nail Abqaiq from the West, this whole thing feels pretty loving sophisticated.
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Sep 18, 2019 15:55
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So how does Robert O'Brien compare to John Bolton?
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Sep 18, 2019 15:56
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Objurium posted:I've seen a few defense blogs theorize that the attack was a mix of UAVs and QUDS-1 cruise missiles specifically because their different speeds and altitudes would make them very hard to intercept. Actually it was taped together drone parts the Houthis ordered on Amazon.
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Sep 18, 2019 16:08
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Objurium posted:Here's the wreckage evidence KSA is presenting to claim Iranian involvement: What I want to know is how many of the poor fucks trying to shoot down the drones with small arms got waxed.
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Sep 18, 2019 16:11
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Iran and hezbollah have their poo poo together with missile technology now. Maybe shouldn’t have pulled out of.that deal ducking moron.
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Sep 18, 2019 16:20
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https://twitter.com/N_Waters89/status/1174348098560233474?s=20
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Sep 18, 2019 16:50
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Sinteres posted:I'm glad he specified that he meant the country of Iran, because it might have been confusing otherwise. How much room is there actually to increase sanctions against Iran, given that everything is already forbidden to everyone? Sinteres posted:Rouhani does seem to be having trouble getting a visa to attend the UN General Assembly, which is a pretty serious diplomatic violation if the US doesn't issue it. Time to move the UN to Geneva, IMO.
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Sep 18, 2019 16:52
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Sooo the strike was done by Saudis 
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Sep 18, 2019 16:57
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Delta-Wye posted:Sooo the strike was done by Saudis And they're gonna invade Afghanistan next, since Yemen has been such a triumphal adventure.
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Sep 18, 2019 17:10
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RIP Syndrome posted:Although the US starting a confrontation with Iran and just sitting back twiddling its thumbs as the Saudis get wrecked is kind of darkly humorous Declaring war and then letting the ally you hate get wrecked while you risk nothing is a sound strategy in Paradox games, so it'll absolutely work irl.
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Sep 18, 2019 17:16
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Conspiratiorist posted:Let's switch to car analogies. The US is a Tesla, KSA is the driver and Iran is a firetruck.
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Sep 18, 2019 17:19
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Less Claypool posted:War is inevitable with Iran, it’s just a matter of when. It really isn't. We could normalize relations with them and just accept that it's a multi-polar world when it comes to power. We won't, but that doesn't mean we can't.
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Sep 18, 2019 17:26
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Grouchio posted:So how does Robert O'Brien compare to John Bolton? Less warmongery, more of a spineless sycophant. So... an improvement, I guess? Cat Mattress posted:How much room is there actually to increase sanctions against Iran, given that everything is already forbidden to everyone? Basically none at this point. The idea of "additional sanctions" is essentially treated as a punchline in Iran.
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Sep 18, 2019 17:44
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Kindest Forums User posted:dude yemen is a country with 30 million people. I think they might have a workshop or two. jesus christ. Hi. I can tell you think you are making a principled defense of the intelligence and capabilities of the Yemeni people against something I have implied. However if you reread what I wrote again, I think you will find your inference was mistaken. Getting subtext is challenging, you might want to limit your comments to what is explicit and overt while taking some time to practice critical reading.
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Sep 18, 2019 18:06
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i know this poo poo is pretty hard to predict but like, what's a realistic scenario in which war with iran happens? what would be the tipping point to watch out for where we know we're hosed?
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Sep 18, 2019 18:35
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