|
V. Illych L. posted:eh I feel personally attacked
|
#
?
Feb 24, 2020 20:56
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 24, 2024 13:02 |
|
|
V. Illych L. posted:i think the last possible opportunity to avert disaster would've been if they could've actually swung a government of national unity, but the loving lib dems shot that down before it could even get going There was a time to "avert disaster" when it comes to the English and lol it was a lot longer ago than brexit
|
|
#
?
Feb 24, 2020 20:56
|
|
|
multijoe posted:The membership have already established themselves as clowns. First they bounce the leadership into backing a 2nd referendum that handed an election to the Tories, and now that's blown up in our faces they're going to follow it up by electing the 'unifier' candidate backed by Progress & Labour First and voluntarily driving the grassroots left extinct. At this point we're a worse failcountry than the loving US Yeah the complete capitulation of the membership was something I didn't expect to happen. Then Corbyn lost and it all went so very quiet. And it still is. The left died that day. Utterly destroyed. The only thing I can think of is that people psyched themselves up maybe a bit too hard? Mackers posted:There was a time to "avert disaster" when it comes to the English and lol it was a lot longer ago than brexit Do go on.
|
|
#
?
Feb 24, 2020 20:58
|
|
|
V. Illych L. posted:eh by a return to idpol do you mean a return to economic neolib orthodoxy but with the soothing salve of socially liberal stuff that costs the capitalists nothing but is still broadly unpopular with the cursed UK public? aka the worst possible position? i havent actually seen his idpol stuff if true, but then I am a shellshocked brit refusing to pay attention until the last possible moment, which i am reluctantly approaching. e: gonadic io posted:I feel personally attacked this but unironically lol, it hurts to read even though i've been saying as much myself for 3 months...
|
|
#
?
Feb 24, 2020 21:01
|
|
|
Regarde Aduck posted:Yeah the complete capitulation of the membership was something I didn't expect to happen. Then Corbyn lost and it all went so very quiet. And it still is. The left died that day. Utterly destroyed. The only thing I can think of is that people psyched themselves up maybe a bit too hard? its possible that we'll rebound, i'm begrudgingly coming back to vote against the pod people and i hope others are too but i hoped other people would vote like me before 
|
|
#
?
Feb 24, 2020 21:04
|
|
|
I think part of the problem is there was little reason to understand the forces of brexit. Slightly more than half the country is irredeemably stupid. What can you do with that? Like what could anyone do if they did comprehend the scale of the problem? There is no reasoning with them much like there's no reasoning with a hard core trump supporter. You just have to try and live around them.
|
|
#
?
Feb 24, 2020 21:06
|
|
|
Regarde Aduck posted:I think part of the problem is there was little reason to understand the forces of brexit. Slightly more than half the country is irredeemably stupid. What can you do with that? Like what could anyone do if they did comprehend the scale of the problem? There is no reasoning with them much like there's no reasoning with a hard core trump supporter. You just have to try and live around them. yeah, you gotta grab at the lever of power when its accidentally revealed though. one of these days someone else might pull it with you i'm not sure it was the hype thats hurt us, that at least made for an enjoyable time rather than a bitterly depressing one. what hurt us is how devastatingly hard we lost lol, a small loss would have been manageable. this calls into question whether 2017 was actually a success or whether it was a feeble swing and miss on the easiest target in the world, which was always the centrist line, and undermining 2017 undermines the entire left narrative of the UK for the past 3 years.
|
|
#
?
Feb 24, 2020 21:09
|
|
|
The only hope is to move to Scotland and then secede.
|
|
#
?
Feb 24, 2020 21:12
|
|
|
I eagerly await your gentlemanly debates about the source of your nazihood
|
|
#
?
Feb 24, 2020 21:13
|
|
|
gonadic io posted:I feel personally attacked you're not alone, people were disavowing the concept of using polls and smaller elections as barometers of political support it was looney tunes and not just on SA. i actually went to britain (i had other business but i took a few more days) and joined a couple of canvassing sessions because i'm a huge loser and people were genuinely convinced that they were going to win in a landslide. against my better judgement and all available evidence, i also believed in a corbyn premiership at election night. once one wants to believe fervently enough it becomes a sort of madness. we on the left are as vulnerable to magical thinking as everybody else, and it was very much in evidence during the 2019 GE. the big problem is that the actual meat of the 2019 manifesto is mostly both very good and quite popular and people seem to be forgetting that. voters distrusted corbyn, imo because of character assassination and how long it took the party to arrive at a position on brexit. the worst that is normally said about the policies is stuff like "hurr free broadband, how frivolous" - moving away from the genuinely very good stuff in the manifesto is a huge mistake. it can be salvaged, and bojo's hard brexit wonderland actually does open up a lot of political space to gently caress around and do socialism. keir starmer seems reassuring and is telling people that he doesn't hate them for being wrong, but electing him would be taking exactly the opposite lesson from 2019 to that which they need. i can absolutely understand the temptation to allow oneself to be brow-beaten into voting for him, though - it's a very natural response to such a devastating defeat.
|
|
#
?
Feb 24, 2020 21:14
|
|
|
thinking about it, the US equivalent for "2017 was a victory" is "Bernie Would Have Won in 2016", thats sorta the thesis for the US left atm. imagine what happens to the american left movement if sanders wins the nomination but then loses the GE against Trump. and not just loses, a historic, crushing defeat being wiped out in dem strongholds. and as an added twist everyone has exactly opposing opinions of why it happened
|
|
#
?
Feb 24, 2020 21:17
|
|
|
Communist Thoughts posted:by a return to idpol do you mean a return to economic neolib orthodoxy but with the soothing salve of socially liberal stuff that costs the capitalists nothing but is still broadly unpopular with the cursed UK public? when i say idpol i mean it in the sense of cosmopolitan urbane liberalism - building a party of the cities, for the cities. it's a stable constellation in the sense that most of the membership is concentrated in the major cities and have been given a lot more power since miliband's reforms. probably starmer would shed all the troublesome equivocation about migration, for example, in exchange for accepting the premise of the means test and some laughably inadequate tenant's subsidy which is actually a landlord's subsidy.
|
|
#
?
Feb 24, 2020 21:19
|
|
|
Communist Thoughts posted:thinking about it, the US equivalent for "2017 was a victory" is "Bernie Would Have Won in 2016", thats sorta the thesis for the US left atm. Im mortified that the US is going to repeat the same stupid mistake britain did.
|
|
#
?
Feb 24, 2020 21:24
|
|
|
Communist Thoughts posted:thinking about it, the US equivalent for "2017 was a victory" is "Bernie Would Have Won in 2016", thats sorta the thesis for the US left atm. tbh i think you're a little too shell-shocked by the whole affair. the 2019 policies mostly poll well individually - there is a victory available there somewhere for a canny left-wing candidacy. in a lot of ways, 2019 was a very well-run campaign from the labour side - they consistently set the agenda, they made johnson look foolish and corbyn's popularity as well as labour's own polling improved throughout. the problem was that they started out from such a completely horrendous position, which can be traced directly to brexit equivocation. the only way the labour party can recover is if they can leverage their membership in the cities while also winning back the really deprived areas in e.g. wales and northern england. probably, this should be possible come next election when brexit is done and johnson's had a term and nothing's improved. but it does mean that you have to actually give these old yokels a say, to which i think the labour membership is going to be extremely resistant. we'll see.
|
|
#
?
Feb 24, 2020 21:28
|
|
|
Yeah for better or worse the next election shouldn't be being fought over Brexit, which severely undermined Labour for the past two years. For the same reason I'm alot more optimistic about Bernie in the US, for all their culture war bullshit they don't have an issue that has driven their entire country completely psychotically insane in the same way Brexit ended up doing here
|
|
#
?
Feb 24, 2020 21:43
|
|
|
multijoe posted:Yeah for better or worse the next election shouldn't be being fought over Brexit, which severely undermined Labour for the past two years. Plus he's
|
|
#
?
Feb 24, 2020 21:46
|
|
|
tbh id be very surprised if we dont have at least one more brexit election to endure
|
|
#
?
Feb 24, 2020 21:46
|
|
|
multijoe posted:Yeah for better or worse the next election shouldn't be being fought over Brexit, which severely undermined Labour for the past two years. the sanders campaign has many structural advantages, not being responsible for a hostile party for several years among them
|
|
#
?
Feb 24, 2020 21:48
|
|
|
Communist Thoughts posted:tbh id be very surprised if we dont have at least one more brexit election to endure The tories already plan to make the next one about scottish independence, or as they will put it "breaking up great britain."
|
|
#
?
Feb 24, 2020 21:48
|
|
|
Communist Thoughts posted:tbh id be very surprised if we dont have at least one more brexit election to endure i'm spamming this thread now, but if there's another brexit election the context will be the failure of the johnson government's brexit policy
|
|
#
?
Feb 24, 2020 21:50
|
|
|
V. Illych L. posted:the sanders campaign has many structural advantages, not being responsible for a hostile party for several years among them yeah its really much easier, plus you get the momentum building up from the primaries, rather than just BANG hes leader - long interim period of endless knife fighting - BANG snap election. i guess bernie's issue is being sabotaged by the senate, whereas a PM with majority is basically king. V. Illych L. posted:i'm spamming this thread now, but if there's another brexit election the context will be the failure of the johnson government's brexit policy I think that is possible... but its pretty hard to hold a tory government accountable to anything. I think more likely if it all fucks up they'll just blame everything on the EU and labour which will be dutifully reported verbatim. If we get Starmer we may end up doing some stupid rejoin the EU poo poo and have to lose another one before we get over that hump.
|
|
#
?
Feb 24, 2020 22:21
|
|
|
multijoe posted:Yeah for better or worse the next election shouldn't be being fought over Brexit, which severely undermined Labour for the past two years. A huge factor over the next few years is going to be; 1. Whether Boris even attempts to keep his election spending promisess (which it seems like he will not The Saj is gone) 2. Whether this is actually effective and the Tory government is competent While the Tories won a landslide the margins in a lot of constituencies are thin, based on a vote to Get Brexit Done and post-election analysis showed that voters by and large don't like Boris at all, just hated Corbyn more. Could be a wild ride in 2024.
|
|
#
?
Feb 24, 2020 22:31
|
|
|
Communist Thoughts posted:yeah its really much easier, plus you get the momentum building up from the primaries, rather than just BANG hes leader - long interim period of endless knife fighting - BANG snap election. i am pretty sure that rejoining is going to poll in the low double digits for the next decade at least, nobody but the diehards is going to want to relitigate this mess. starmer's big problem is his association with remoanerism, i don't think he's stupid enough to actually try to campaign on that platform. i mean, one never knows, but i never got the impression that the FBPE die-hards were that numerous. they're enough to give the lib dems another lease of life being poo poo on the sidelines, i guess i am also absolutely confident that the johnson government is going to fail to make life better for the people who voted it in. even if they tried, their core constituencies have nothing but contempt for these people. especially with the brexit shock coming, businesses are going to need a lot of propping up, which means subsidies or tax breaks, which combined with british neuroses about inflation means very limited room for the johnson government to maneuver. i expect some non-entity spending like a northern powerhouse 2.0 which does nothing to change the situation on the ground. reversing the decay of these regions is going to take radical policy, far beyond anything a tory government in full crisis mode is going to be able to muster no matter what dom cum wants
|
|
#
?
Feb 24, 2020 22:38
|
|
|
Communist Thoughts posted:thinking about it, the US equivalent for "2017 was a victory" is "Bernie Would Have Won in 2016", thats sorta the thesis for the US left atm. There’s a very good chance this could happen. I’d urge everyone who’s hoping for a Bernie miracle to steel themselves for a Trump landslide. It is very hard to unseat a sitting president and voters are not as politically aware as you’d think.
|
|
#
?
Feb 24, 2020 22:40
|
|
|
It wasn't crazy to think that Corbyn had a shot at winning, right before the election the polls were within the margin of error, and last time round they highly overestimated Tory support. And the polls were totally wrong again, except this time they had overcorrected from 2017 and overestimated Labour support.
|
|
#
?
Feb 24, 2020 22:45
|
|
|
There was also hope of Farage being an absolutely massive piece of poo poo to the rest of the rightwing and letting Brexit Party stand in Tory held marginals to really drain their voter base and make them feel pinched from both sides. Basically the smears were effective against Corbyn, People Vote campaign was an effective wrecking operation against Labour around Brexit and we just ran out of time against the Brexit deadlines, ended up in a lovely winter election and got smashed.
|
|
#
?
Feb 24, 2020 23:54
|
|
|
the people’s vote campaign is such an unmitigated poo poo show it’s the perfect encapsulation for a huge amount of what’s wrong with this country
|
|
#
?
Feb 24, 2020 23:59
|
|
|
Darth Walrus posted:Point out that harsher immigration restrictions aren't actually about kicking out foreigners, but undermining workers' rights. Companies still want them, and the government will still let them in on 'temporary' visas that they're tacitly encouraged to overstay, but if their presence here is illegal, they have no legal redress to abuse and exploitation by employers (because the police will just deport them). End result, you get a slave underclass who have zero political representation and are dehumanised by the media, and are used to undercut wages and destroy collective bargaining. You know, exactly like how things are in the US. This was the line the PvdA took in the Netherlands, and it didn't give them a landslide. Yes, I know they have a history of working together with a right-wing party on a right-wing agenda.
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2020 07:47
|
|
|
immigration is genuinely unpopular everywhere in the world, let's not kid ourselves by pretending that this is because we just haven't explained it correctly. we must find a way to commit to a solidaric migration policy while mitigating the issue's relevance and avoiding the CONTROLS ON IMMIGRATION mug style of politics. committing to fully open borders would be a disaster politically, it's an extremely marginal position. migration is one of those issues where if we have to talk about it, we lose because we genuinely haven't got the ideological space to properly engage with it. ideally the answer would be an aggressively internationalist policy to improve other countries and communities around the world so that e.g. welfare and employment differences weren't a Thing, but so long as they are, liberal immigration policy is going to be used to undercut less-qualified labour's position (there are many examples of Freedom of Movement being used this way). this combines with racism and cultural chauvinism to create an incredibly sticky issue we can bite the bullet and take the hit hoping that the rest of our policy proposals outweigh it, or we can run away from the issue. neither position is great. ideally we could institute better regulations like a mandatory workers' rights seminar and a union intro for migrant workers to address some of the undercutting issues, but so long as we have our individualistic liberal employment system a greater pool of potential candidates for a job is going to put downward pressure on the price of labour and create resentment easily amplified by racism. this is, unfortunately, a fact of our economy. the immediate response to 'immigration controls create a black market' among these people is not going to be 'controls are wrong' it's going to be 'well then have a crackdown'. it's not a wrong thing to bring up, but it's not going to convince a great many people
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2020 10:06
|
|
|
what really boils my blood about this whole issue is that the parties involved love cracking down on refugees in order to control migration, so you end up sending orphans back to afghanistan to make the stats look better. the conflation of labour migration with humanitarian residents is directly related to perhaps the greatest failure of the EU, the cowardice during the refugee crisis and the institution of a deadly border to the union i hate even thinking about migration policy it just makes me loving depressed
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2020 10:11
|
|
|
V. Illych L. posted:immigration is genuinely unpopular everywhere in the world, let's not kid ourselves by pretending that this is because we just haven't explained it correctly. we must find a way to commit to a solidaric migration policy while mitigating the issue's relevance and avoiding the CONTROLS ON IMMIGRATION mug style of politics. committing to fully open borders would be a disaster politically, it's an extremely marginal position. OK boomer
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2020 10:25
|
|
|
I knew we were going to lose. I knew we were going to lose the second we backed a second referendum - I also suspect that held us back to some degree in 2017. I chose to be optimistic, but I knew. remain remains an unpopular position, tragically. we are trapped in the belly of this horrible machine and the machine is bleeding to death. c'est la vie, c'est la mort.
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2020 11:21
|
|
|
CoolCab posted:I knew we were going to lose. I knew we were going to lose the second we backed a second referendum - I also suspect that held us back to some degree in 2017. I chose to be optimistic, but I knew. the tragic thing is that second ref could've been a reasonable compromise if the idiot remoaners hadn't gone all-in on it as the way they were going to stop brexit. had it come up later on as a way of resolving the deadlock it might've been genuinely popular lol people's vote campaign is one of the worst failures i've seen in my life, they actively hosed up everything they claimed to fight for
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2020 11:34
|
|
|
V. Illych L. posted:the tragic thing is that second ref could've been a reasonable compromise if the idiot remoaners hadn't gone all-in on it as the way they were going to stop brexit. had it come up later on as a way of resolving the deadlock it might've been genuinely popular lol Roland Rudd is probably pretty happy with the result even if it ended up in an awkward legal battle.
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2020 11:37
|
|
|
V. Illych L. posted:the tragic thing is that second ref could've been a reasonable compromise if the idiot remoaners hadn't gone all-in on it as the way they were going to stop brexit. had it come up later on as a way of resolving the deadlock it might've been genuinely popular lol Half of People's Vote purely wanted to gently caress up Corbyn and admitted they didn't actually want a second referendum
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2020 11:40
|
|
|
Hillary 2020 posted:There’s a very good chance this could happen. I’d urge everyone who’s hoping for a Bernie miracle to steel themselves for a Trump landslide. It is very hard to unseat a sitting president and voters are not as politically aware as you’d think. its gonna happen and its gonna be for the same reasons: overwhelming sabotage from the media and his own party
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2020 12:15
|
|
|
V. Illych L. posted:the tragic thing is that second ref could've been a reasonable compromise if the idiot remoaners hadn't gone all-in on it as the way they were going to stop brexit. had it come up later on as a way of resolving the deadlock it might've been genuinely popular lol nah PV would never be a reasonable compromise, it was always only a remain position because why on earth would a leaver want to redo the referendum they won? not a single one of them did. its why it annoys me people who say we woulda won if we went full remain, we did go remain, in a loving stupid way ofc but the remainers got what they wanted a gently caress of a lot more than the leavers. SMILLENNIALSMILLEN posted:its gonna happen and its gonna be for the same reasons: overwhelming sabotage from the media and his own party they have considerably less time to sabotage him in and he's considerably more popular than corbyn was at the start afaik, so its not certain
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2020 14:34
|
|
|
Communist Thoughts posted:nah PV would never be a reasonable compromise, it was always only a remain position because why on earth would a leaver want to redo the referendum they won? not a single one of them did. well yes in the idiot world in which we live the second referendum was immediately floated as a way of voiding the first referendum, poisoning the idea. the issue is that as it became obvious that there was no majority for any deal, had the remoaners not been assholes about it to begin with it could've been a way to resolve the thing somewhat amicably one way or the other. it's not, on its face, an unreasonable proposition to actually make a specific brexit deal the issue of a second referendum, it only becomes unreasonable when it's obvious that the only reason you're suggesting it is because it's a way to pretend the first vote never happened
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2020 14:55
|
|
|
also sanders is sweeping all before him atm and the DNC has very limited ability to actually hurt him. they don't control anyone for whom sanders is nominally responsible and who cannot be replaced by fiat. sanders' campaign is his own and is going to remain such until the end, be that bitter or otherwise. if he gets elected, expect an open war with congressional democrats, but until then there's not a lot they can do that he can't just shut them out of. the more individualistic presidentialism is structurally much more accommodating of outsiders than even relatively open parties like british labour, let alone old world leninist structures like the parties in my country. in 2016 i very much overestimated the impact of clinton's machine politics because where i'm from, a properly machined party is a very powerful thing - our labour leader's biggest problem is precisely that he's a relative outsider and doesn't command the powerful party apparatus, and so has to accept internal squabbling and petty bullshit which means that he's got very little room to maneuver. a presidential campaign doesn't work like that - the candidate mostly gets to pick their closest associates and is not subject to any higher authority, and don't need to tolerate factional behaviour like leaking the minutes of internal meetings or sabotaging edicts or what have you. the flip side is that it's going to be very difficult for sanders to translate his campaign into an actual institutional force for change on a broader scale and to orchestrate a proper takeover of the DNC. the clintonite holdovers are going to be fighting a very long and very hard rearguard action, to the extent that it might actually be easier to just try to dismantle the whole thing and start afresh. hopefully he'll spend his first four years working very hard on building new civil society institutions loyal to him, boosting union power etc. that's how it has to be if his presidency is going to translate into long-term change
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2020 15:11
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 24, 2024 13:02 |
|
|
Sanders amusingly if he actually gets his world anti corruption drive going might sweep up a bunch of uk guys with it
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2020 15:14
|
|
