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Taking SK's numbers also seems naive considering most of the world is more similar to Italy than SK in terms of response and hospital access.
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Mar 18, 2020 15:43
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I am applying for margin solely to short APRN. This is ridiculous.
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Mar 18, 2020 15:43
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waffle posted:My dude South Korea's numbers are low because there are still a lot of infected people who may still die. In fact the current as of today death rate in SK is .9%, which is still about 10x as deadly as an especially bad flu season Ok we have different opinions thus we have a market. The death rate at the end of this will absolutely be lower than what we are showing now due to obvious testing bias for a virus that most people cant tell apart from a cold symptomatically. We may never know how many people actually get infected given how many people are completely asymptomatic. Of course old dying people get tested while everyone else gets tested at some ludicrously low rate. The data is already showing itself, public officials are just being overly cautious in their analysis which is the *correct* approach
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Mar 18, 2020 15:44
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pixaal posted:That is not the problem, the problem is hospitals are going to be 100% full, people that have a life threatening but livable with hospitalization are going to die. Heart attack? sorry no free bed you have to try and recover at home, and you're dead. This is grossly exaggerated. China built a few bigass hospitals and they are already empty and closed. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/coronavirus-wuhan-masks-video-doctors-nurses-hospital-a9402631.html Its good to be prepared, which is what leaders are trying to do by warning about these things, but the scaremongering and inaccurate interpretation of what is happening is wildly out of control right now. Open your eyes guys, this virus has already shown what it is
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Mar 18, 2020 15:46
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SKs numbers are probably a bit lower since they were using hydroxychloroquine early for infected patients to rapidly decrease viral load which likely saved lives. The field evidence suggests strongly that this is an effective way of dealing with infections.
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Mar 18, 2020 15:47
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The thing is, South Korea is actually testing a shitload of people, which makes it the best reference for best case scenarios. Also it appears SK's death rate has gone up above 1% now. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgylp3Td1Bw
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Mar 18, 2020 15:47
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Omerta posted:I am applying for margin solely to short APRN. This is ridiculous. hahahahhah what the gently caress
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Mar 18, 2020 15:47
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greasyhands posted:This is grossly exaggerated. China built a few bigass hospitals and they are already empty and closed. Its good to be prepared, which is what leaders are trying to do by warning about these things, but the scaremongering and inaccurate interpretation of what is happening is wildly out of control right now. Yeah I get this feeling. When you point out that people are going very, very crazy they think you're saying that coronavirus isn't real. No, it's real. And it's serious. But, like, there is quantifiable hysteria right now.
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Mar 18, 2020 15:48
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greasyhands posted:Ok we have different opinions thus we have a market. The death rate at the end of this will absolutely be lower than what we are showing now due to obvious testing bias for a virus that most people cant tell apart from a cold symptomatically. We may never know how many people actually get infected given how many people are completely asymptomatic. Of course old dying people get tested while everyone else gets tested at some ludicrously low rate. The data is already showing itself, public officials are just being overly cautious in their analysis which is the *correct* approach It's really not an "opinion" though, there are lots of statisticians and epidemiologists accounting for those exact factors, and here's two studies: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.04.20031104v1 that found a 1.3% fatality rate accounting for asymptomatics and testing in China, and another: https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/severity/diamond_cruise_cfr_estimates.html that found a mortality rate of 2.3% from data from the Diamond Princess after accounting for the age distribution of passengers on the ship. There are real reasons to think the market is overreacting but if your basis for thinking that is "COVID-19 isn't that bad, actually", there's a lot of (scientific) evidence against that. China has stopped it and Italy is in the process of stopping it, so it definitely can be stopped, but neither country is anywhere close to ending the interventions that led to stopping it (which will have continued economic impact after the last few cases)... if they do, they'll risk reintroduction and new epidemics (so they likely won't) waffle fucked around with this message at 15:50 on Mar 18, 2020 |
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Mar 18, 2020 15:48
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My REIT screener is ugly red. Somebody'll come out of this crash but poo poo.
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Mar 18, 2020 15:48
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Omerta posted:I am applying for margin solely to short APRN. This is ridiculous. 1) Holy poo poo haha 2) no shares to borrow and put premiums means it basically has to go negative 
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Mar 18, 2020 15:49
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waffle posted:It's really not an "opinion" though, there are lots of statisticians and epidemiologists accounting for those exact factors, and here's two studies: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.04.20031104v1 that found a 1.3% fatality rate accounting for asymptomatics and testing in China, and another: https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/severity/diamond_cruise_cfr_estimates.html that found a mortality rate of 2.3% from data from the Diamond Princess after accounting for the age distribution of passengers on the ship. There are real reasons to think the market is overreacting but if your basis for thinking that is "COVID-19 isn't that bad, actually", there's a lot of (scientific) evidence against that. a non peer reviewed study on github with A calculated mortality rate for a disease based on a few dozen cases on a ship in an extremely stressful environment (forcibly quarantined at sea in a tiny cruise ship cabin)? You loving kidding me?
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Mar 18, 2020 15:50
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Buying options at all right now is a dangerous proposition and buying deeper OTM contracts at farther-out expiry is probably a good idea. Holding options you bought in the past, though, is great.
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Mar 18, 2020 15:50
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Omerta posted:I am applying for margin solely to short APRN. This is ridiculous. lol this is cool
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Mar 18, 2020 15:51
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greasyhands posted:A calculated mortality rate for a disease based on a few dozen cases on a ship in an extremely stressful environment (forcibly quarantined at sea in a tiny cruise ship cabin)? You loving kidding me? dude cruise passengers are *healthier* on average than their non-cruising counterparts, because they are on a cruise. you are extremely talking out your rear end at the moment. and if you like here's a 3rd one https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033357v1 that calculates the CFR as 1.38%. back to the thread topic, there are other reasons to think the market has overreacted--a huge stimulus bill blunts a lot of negative economic effects, but "everyone is overestimating the potential severity of COVID-19" ain't one waffle fucked around with this message at 16:00 on Mar 18, 2020 |
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Mar 18, 2020 15:51
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LLCoolJD posted:Hopefully! Thank you. I had to do a double take to see why GILD was going UP with this news. Makes sense now.
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Mar 18, 2020 15:52
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greasyhands posted:This is grossly exaggerated. China built a few bigass hospitals and they are already empty and closed. if your thesis about how this plays out focuses on China and South Korea and doesn't put more focus on Italy you're gonna get burned You're comparing the U.S. to two countries which have contended with rabidly infectious and lethal diseases recently vs. western nations that haven't touched this problem in living memory I mean ultimately you're right, we have a market from our disagreement. I think if you're calling a bottom now, with certainty, your argument isn't reflecting some available information, and you're in for some hurt if you're acting on it with the certainty you express.
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Mar 18, 2020 15:58
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LLCoolJD posted:China is reporting that a Japanese flu treatment, faviparivir ("Avigan") shows effectiveness at treating Coronavirus (better lung outcomes, 4 days versus 11 to test negative). is this (or a similar treatment) going to be Trump's FDA announce pump today at <time he thinks the market will be at its low>
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Mar 18, 2020 16:01
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I'm curious about how fast people think the market will rebound, even if we're at the bottom. Even healthy companies like Amazon are gonna see their revenues drop significantly this whole year. Yeah, people are gonna order their poo poo at home some more, but a lot of people are gonna go broke and just not spend. Doesn't that mean that we should see a stagnant market for months while the real economy recovers?
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Mar 18, 2020 16:01
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waffle posted:dude cruise passengers are *healthier* on average than their non-cruising counterparts, because they are on a cruise. you are extremely talking out your rear end at the moment Heres the thing... it doesnt really matter if its 0.6%, 0.9%, or 1.2% (it will not be 2%+, github study notwithstanding) none of those numbers are good nor are any of them catastrophic. Its just a possible range. Im of the the belief that a ton of people are being missed in the current testing (confirmed asymptomatic patients makes this an almost certainty) and the disease is far more contagious than originally thought (viral loads are extremely high) but also far less lethal than feared by the fearmongers. There is room for disagreement there, we do not know for sure yet. What we do know is in places that it started, its already on the way out. It didnt wipe out any significant number of the population. It didnt knock entire populations on their rear end for weeks- most people get over it in a weekend! Yes, it took drastic measures in a couple of places but it absolutely was not a disaster in the end. China is already back on its feet. Theres a lot of evidence that reinfection is unlikely. Every single sign points to “were gonna move past this pretty quickly”.
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Mar 18, 2020 16:04
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Doccykins posted:is this (or a similar treatment) going to be Trump's FDA announce pump today at <time he thinks the market will be at its low> You should fully expect him to get behind a semi working treatment. It's the next event I'm waiting for.
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Mar 18, 2020 16:05
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Ur Getting Fatter posted:I'm curious about how fast people think the market will rebound, even if we're at the bottom. People aren't thinking about the layoffs they are thinking "hold up for a week maybe two then everything goes back to normal". That's how they are reaching a fast recovery, everyone still has their income, no one told their boss off when they got laid off, everyone goes back to buying full swing when they are told everything is cool. Instead it's going to be a slow ramp up as people are no longer in that routine and some have probably found they enjoy some quiet time.
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Mar 18, 2020 16:06
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Ordinary Joes will struggle for a while, but I assume the well-to-do who have large investment budgets will be quick to scoop up bargains once the panic abates. Berkshire has many billions they're itching to spend.
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Mar 18, 2020 16:07
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Ur Getting Fatter posted:I'm curious about how fast people think the market will rebound, even if we're at the bottom. It depends on the sector. Retail, for example, is extremely hosed and absent a miraculous Christmas 2020 will be losing a significant part of that sector permanently. As I said above, if oil stays at or below $24 for two months, there will be many oil speculators flat out failing. That will take years to recover from if at all. Airlines might also be hosed long-term if corporate America finds out they can do business just as well remotely as they can in person. Other sectors like banking will recover very quickly and might even be able to save Q3 earnings.
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Mar 18, 2020 16:07
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Tokyo Sex Whale posted:1) Holy poo poo haha Maybe I’m just dumb and/or missing something, but isn’t margin approval required to execute any short sale? I’m not planning to go beyond my account balance on a single-stock short.
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Mar 18, 2020 16:08
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greasyhands posted:Heres the thing... it doesnt really matter if its 0.6%, 0.9%, or 1.2% (it will not be 2%+, github study notwithstanding) none of those numbers are good nor are any of them catastrophic. Its just a possible range. Im of the the belief that a ton of people are being missed in the current testing (confirmed asymptomatic patients makes this an almost certainty) and the disease is far more contagious than originally thought (viral loads are extremely high) but also far less lethal than feared by the fearmongers. There is room for disagreement there, we do not know for sure yet. What we do know is in places that it started, its already on the way out. It didnt wipe out any significant number of the population. It didnt knock entire populations on their rear end for weeks- most people get over it in a weekend! Yes, it took drastic measures in a couple of places but it absolutely was not a disaster in the end. China is already back on its feet. Theres a lot of evidence that reinfection is unlikely. Every single sign points to “were gonna move past this pretty quickly”. waffle fucked around with this message at 16:16 on Mar 18, 2020 |
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Mar 18, 2020 16:11
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Tokyo Sex Whale posted:1) Holy poo poo haha Yeah that's hosed. Also I have $3200 cash because I bitched out and sold 2 Disney puts at the high early this morning, what should I do with it? SPY puts?
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Mar 18, 2020 16:13
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Closing some puts today and taking some profit I think.  Thanks for the CZR post Lote! (If I wasn't such an options newbie I would have gambled more on this...)
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Mar 18, 2020 16:15
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Omerta posted:Maybe I’m just dumb and/or missing something, but isn’t margin approval required to execute any short sale? I’m not planning to go beyond my account balance on a single-stock short. Margin is required, yes. When you short stock, your broker has to find shares to borrow/sell. He's saying they might not be available. Another way to take a short position is to buy put options, which carry premiums that are super high at the moment, making it difficult to profit on puts. If you somehow do manage to borrow shares and "don't plan on going beyond the account balance of your account" - you can still wind up net negative if the stock continues to rise, so you'd better have an exit plan.
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Mar 18, 2020 16:17
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Omerta posted:Maybe I’m just dumb and/or missing something, but isn’t margin approval required to execute any short sale? I’m not planning to go beyond my account balance on a single-stock short. Yeah pretty sure you need a margin account to short. The problem though is that it’s hard to borrow stock to short it. Maybe your broker can get some but if not you can’t short it. And the premiums on the options are too high for there to be much of a trade unless it’s actually going to 0. Like if it costs $14 to buy a put and it’s $14 a share then whelp.
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Mar 18, 2020 16:18
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:This x1000. This is the time to be greedy per Buffett. I already put my non-emergency savings into a long-term retirement portfolio right before the crash  I have no money leftOh well.
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Mar 18, 2020 16:18
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Lote posted:PENN is a better put than BYD IMO. RRR, CZR, and PENN are going to 0. Boyd May survive. I guess maybe the only room left is with hotels? Marriott down 30% today but that kind of move stopped me from buying puts on the casinos earlier.
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Mar 18, 2020 16:21
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Update on my casino bets: BYD seems to be weathering this better than the rest, like Lote said, but still down a shitload. PENN is so hosed, they're apparently tapping into $430m credit line just to stay afloat during the closure. I still won't hold this too long. Wouldn't be surprised if gambling addicts spend all of their Trump windfall on casinos the second they open again. Plot twist: not being able to gamble for 15 days actually helps people break their addiction, all Casinos go bankrupt and the world is a better place.
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Mar 18, 2020 16:21
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Wow, Ally almost down 30% today so far
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Mar 18, 2020 16:21
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greasyhands posted:Ok we have different opinions thus we have a market. The death rate at the end of this will absolutely be lower than what we are showing now due to obvious testing bias for a virus that most people cant tell apart from a cold symptomatically. We may never know how many people actually get infected given how many people are completely asymptomatic. Of course old dying people get tested while everyone else gets tested at some ludicrously low rate. The data is already showing itself, public officials are just being overly cautious in their analysis which is the *correct* approach We already have more deaths than South Korea. You are simply viewing the virus for "what it is" in the context of near absolute control. Near absolute control of the elderly population, near absolute control of testing and near absolute control over business and public life. Other places will have much higher death rates because they do not have what South Korea and China have. Also they are less capable of fibbing the data because let's be honest, the numbers from these areas ain't true. Further, you focus purely on the denominator while ignoring the numerator. We don't know how many people have died from this and not been counted. It's easy for people to say "well actually the denominator could be two or three times as high" while ignoring that thousands more could easily have died as a result of the virus around the world and not been counted.
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Mar 18, 2020 16:22
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DeadFatDuckFat posted:Wow, Ally almost down 30% today so far Uh, I have my savings in them. Is that gonna gently caress me over?
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Mar 18, 2020 16:23
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Ur Getting Fatter posted:Plot twist: not being able to gamble for 15 days actually helps people break their addiction, all Casinos go bankrupt and the world is a better place. They'll just download the really stupid slots games on their phone. Maybe some online poker or blackjack picks up.
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Mar 18, 2020 16:23
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I mean, when does the infrastructure rebuild america bill go through?
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Mar 18, 2020 16:23
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Pollyanna posted:Uh, I have my savings in them. Is that gonna gently caress me over? Are you over the FDIC insurance limit? (Based on your posting you aren't).
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Mar 18, 2020 16:24
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pixaal posted:Are you over the FDIC insurance limit? (Based on your posting you aren't). Prolly not? quote:$250,000  Absolutely not.
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Mar 18, 2020 16:27
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