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Nothus
Feb 22, 2001

Buglord

sexpig by night posted:

So just so I'm clear because this fat moron is rambling, is he saying TOMORROW he's going to issue 'new guidelines' that functionally open things up again because...he thinks we've peaked nationally???

Chuds are getting restless. He has to open up.

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Notorious R.I.M.
Jan 27, 2004

up to my ass in alligators


This graph for Italy gives us a real idea of what the back side of the curve looks like with strong lockdown measures. I'm sure someone can draw a line and figure out where it zeroes out, but looks like September-ish to me.

shovelbum
Oct 21, 2010

Fun Shoe

Stereotype posted:

R(t) is really hard to calculate if you don't know how long people are contagious for, but if you assume they are really only contagious for a week before isolating themselves then NYC has an R of like 0.5 which is good, it means that it will eventually go away, but it is way higher than what the IHME models assume.

Anything under about 6 in the US is lack of testing

Flesh Forge
Jan 31, 2011

LET ME TELL YOU ABOUT MY DOG

Stereotype posted:

There's still like 30k new cases every day and either we have a very high 8% death rate or a lot of people have it who don't know or weren't tested.

I've been saying for a while the official strategy is to reduce and interfere with testing to get the numbers down, it's working!

Lawman 0
Aug 17, 2010


They should hand him a medal

doingitwrong
Jul 27, 2013
I found someone worse than landlords

https://abcnews.go.com/US/convoy-protesting-stay-home-orders-targets-michigans-capital/story?id=70138816

quote:

For three decades, Meshawn Maddock and her family have run A-1 Bail Bonds in Milford, Michigan. But just a few days ago, she said she was forced to lay off her last three employees due to courts being shuttered and jails being emptied to blunt the spread of coronavirus in the hard-hit state.

Instead of staying in her house, adhering to Gov. Gretchen Whitmer's stay-at-home orders, Maddock drove 60 miles from her residence to Lansing, the state capital, to join a convoy of motorists Wednesday afternoon protesting the governor's pandemic directive and calling on state leaders to allow small businesses to reopen so employees can get back to work.


e: I just read further

quote:

Maddock, also the chair of the 11th District Congressional District Republican Committee in Michigan and co-founder of Michigan Trump Republicans, told ABC News that the demonstration had nothing to do with the politics of the first-term Democratic governor, who last week appeared on Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden's newly launched podcast, fueling speculation she's on his shortlist for a running mate.

"This is not partisan. Jobs are not partisan. Workers are not partisan. This is just a frustrated expression of people," said Maddock, whose husband is a Republican member of the state Legislature.

doingitwrong has issued a correction as of 23:11 on Apr 15, 2020

NecroMonster
Jan 4, 2009

mammon death cult

Homeless Friend
Jul 16, 2007

Notorious R.I.M. posted:



This graph for Italy gives us a real idea of what the back side of the curve looks like with strong lockdown measures. I'm sure someone can draw a line and figure out where it zeroes out, but looks like September-ish to me.

Will be lol when they open early and ruin everything

Flesh Forge
Jan 31, 2011

LET ME TELL YOU ABOUT MY DOG

Notorious R.I.M. posted:



This graph for Italy gives us a real idea of what the back side of the curve looks like with strong lockdown measures. I'm sure someone can draw a line and figure out where it zeroes out, but looks like September-ish to me.

yeah but what does it look like when you have the opposite of lockdown measures

NecroMonster posted:

mammon death cult

praise mammon!

SKULL.GIF
Jan 20, 2017



sexpig by night
Sep 8, 2011

by Azathoth

Notorious R.I.M. posted:



This graph for Italy gives us a real idea of what the back side of the curve looks like with strong lockdown measures. I'm sure someone can draw a line and figure out where it zeroes out, but looks like September-ish to me.

ah but what if we don't do anything after like a month of half-assed lockdowns? That'll fix it!

Malcolm XML
Aug 8, 2009

I always knew it would end like this.

shovelbum posted:

The US is in uncontrolled exponential growth, assume 33% daily on all numbers, anything below this is under testing. There is zero evidence any of our laughable measures have done anything

nah, the lockdowns definitively work in places like WA, CA and NY.

ShutteredIn
Mar 24, 2005

El Campeon Mundial del Acordeon

She's a republican district chair too

Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

COMMENCE THE RITE OF SHITPOSTING


Lol Trump is going to throw a shitfit and piss off the military brass even more

Good

Relevant Tangent
Nov 18, 2016

Tangentially Relevant

seattle plague rat posted:

they told residents to consider the standard of care theyd get in their cabin up north

dunno if they ever did anythng more formal

but a lot of those second home peple want to go off to their prepper shacks and die

they should be allowed to do so, "You're Next" was a documentary

ChipNDip
Sep 6, 2010

How many deaths are prevented by an executive order that prevents big box stores from selling seeds, furniture, and paint?

sexpig by night posted:

So just so I'm clear because this fat moron is rambling, is he saying TOMORROW he's going to issue 'new guidelines' that functionally open things up again because...he thinks we've peaked nationally???

Yes. He just said that "some states will be before May 1st". Florida beaches, Texas, Mississippi, Georgia, Kansas, etc. will be open by tomorrow night.

sexpig by night
Sep 8, 2011

by Azathoth

ChipNDip posted:

Yes. He just said that "some states will be before May 1st". Florida beaches, Texas, Mississippi, Georgia, Kansas, etc. will be open by tomorrow night.

WE HAVEN'T PEAKED IN TEXAS YET

Relevant Tangent
Nov 18, 2016

Tangentially Relevant

shovelbum posted:

the second home thing drives me crazy, my friend inherited a property in shithole like central northern ish michigan, poor lovely bitter cold area, and we found out when we tried to hunt it that his like broke rear end neighbors had poached every ounce of animal protein off it over the years it was abandoned before his uncle died, theres just not enuf LIVE OFF THE LAND to support much of anyone

yeah second homes are only good for hiding from the law in and ideally you use someone else's for that

sexpig by night
Sep 8, 2011

by Azathoth
haha I'm gonna mc fuckin diiiiiiiiie let's go!!!!!

Spime Wrangler
Feb 23, 2003

Because we can.

Malcolm XML posted:

from https://covid.arena-ai.com/ (also not a great model but)

>The IHME team’s model is not an epidemiological model but an empirical one, based on the assumption that the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths follows a specific curve shape / trajectory in time, and that this curve “shape” should be shared across countries and states. This model is also trained on deaths (as opposed to confirmed cases) over time – an explicit choice by the IHME to ensure the model is robust against observational bias in testing.

like it says on the box, the only real intended decision making use for this model is to put numbers and timing on possible peak resource needs

however they have so little confidence in their model that the bounds are a full order of magnitude apart and they still suggest basing decisions off the upper bound, which they recognize as being overly pessimistic

it's an interesting research project for a few grad students to work on internally (in which their advisor should have quietly told them to try again when they chose a gaussian) but absolutely shameful as the public-facing centerpiece for the pandemic response of a quarter-billion-dollar-plus health metrics institute

ChipNDip
Sep 6, 2010

How many deaths are prevented by an executive order that prevents big box stores from selling seeds, furniture, and paint?

Malcolm XML posted:

nah, the lockdowns definitively work in places like WA, CA and NY.

No, you see, the government is actually hiding mass graves (like they did in Wuhan) and not testing.

sexpig by night
Sep 8, 2011

by Azathoth
neat world where I'm jealous of my boyfriend living in Kentucky! Thank you Donald very cool!

ChipNDip
Sep 6, 2010

How many deaths are prevented by an executive order that prevents big box stores from selling seeds, furniture, and paint?

sexpig by night posted:

WE HAVEN'T PEAKED IN TEXAS YET

Definitely not, considering that your President is going to order you to open back up in 24 hours :v:

Malcolm XML
Aug 8, 2009

I always knew it would end like this.

ChipNDip posted:

No, you see, the government is actually hiding mass graves (like they did in Wuhan) and not testing.

thats for the adrenochrome, stupid

Mr Ice Cream Glove
Apr 22, 2007

I feel bad for anyone who lives in state with republican governor because they are going to rush to open their states before May 1st

Hot Karl Marx
Mar 16, 2009

Politburo regulations about social distancing require to downgrade your Karlmarxing to cold, and sorry about the dnc primaries, please enjoy!
https://i.imgur.com/qhvNsIM.mp4

turn on sound!!!!

sexpig by night
Sep 8, 2011

by Azathoth

ChipNDip posted:

Definitely not, considering that your President is going to order you to open back up in 24 hours :v:

well at least I can hope my governor is also immune weak and this can take his rear end out with me

SpiderHyphenMan
Apr 1, 2010

by Fluffdaddy
lol there is absolutely strong evidence that says current measures are saving tens of thousands of lives, which is why it's funny that those measures are about to be taken away by an impatient toddler and those beholden to him because we all live in that one Twilight Zone episode, the best one.

SKULL.GIF
Jan 20, 2017


Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:

I feel bad for anyone who lives in state with republican governor because they are going to rush to open their states before May 1st

Great Lakes Union looking better and better

Mr Ice Cream Glove
Apr 22, 2007

trumps going to award states that open early isn’t he?

Lawman 0
Aug 17, 2010

Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:

trumps going to award states that open early isn’t he?

With what

Mayor Dave
Feb 20, 2009

Bernie the Snow Clown

sexpig by night posted:

So just so I'm clear because this fat moron is rambling, is he saying TOMORROW he's going to issue 'new guidelines' that functionally open things up again because...he thinks we've peaked nationally???

He indicated yesterday that it's only 29 states but yes essentially

sexpig by night
Sep 8, 2011

by Azathoth

Lawman 0 posted:

With what

fat loads

Stereotype
Apr 24, 2010

College Slice
Only 13 new cases again in Hawaii, exactly the same as yesterday.

Dr_0ctag0n
Apr 25, 2015
Probation
Can't post for 9 days!

Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:

I feel bad for anyone who lives in state with republican governor because they are going to rush to open their states before May 1st

Lol as if any of them actually closed in the first place. Chuds are stupid as poo poo and the essential businesses are determined by what the chud owners think.

Det_no
Oct 24, 2003

Lawman 0 posted:

With what

The sweet release of death.

Relevant Tangent
Nov 18, 2016

Tangentially Relevant

sexpig by night posted:

THURSDAY?!

loving THURSDAY?! TOMORROW?!

technically he could mean any Thursday

Stereotype
Apr 24, 2010

College Slice

Relevant Tangent posted:

technically he could mean any Thursday

He will of course say this when cases skyrocket in red states that reopened.

triple sulk
Sep 17, 2014



what's going on? i'm making dinner and have been busy

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sexpig by night
Sep 8, 2011

by Azathoth
MAN I SURE AM HAPPY VIRUSES FAMOUSLY RESPECT STATE BORDERS!!!

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