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piL posted:[snipped right wingers yelling] They're going to try to make hay out of it, but it's hard to overstate how unpopular the afghanistan war had become and ironically conservative opinion solidified even more behind the urgency of the US needing to withdraw after Trump started making noise about dealing with the taliban. so yeah they'll try to make a thing out of it, but idk who on either side of the aisle is honestly looking at afghanistan and thinking 'yeah we totally could have turned things around if we just stayed there 10 more years and pissed away another trillion dollars'
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Aug 13, 2021 04:41
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https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1425901540045377544 That is decent tech to have giftwrapped for free. Who knows what other DoD treasures await them in their next adventures in the areas with all the hastily fleeing remnants of the government.
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Aug 13, 2021 05:24
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I've never quite understood why the US doesn't at the very least take the time to destroy what they're leaving behind.
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Aug 13, 2021 05:34
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MiddleOne posted:I've never quite understood why the US doesn't at the very least take the time to destroy what they're leaving behind. It kind of indicates the panicy haste with which the US withdrawal's taken place. Also, I claim 6th September for the fall of Kabul.
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Aug 13, 2021 05:40
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Herstory Begins Now posted:They're going to try to make hay out of it, but it's hard to overstate how unpopular the afghanistan war had become and ironically conservative opinion solidified even more behind the urgency of the US needing to withdraw after Trump started making noise about dealing with the taliban. Reading the replies to all those tweets, the response is almost universally 'good riddance'. Only the most worm brained are posting anything anti-Biden and it's almost always tangential empty hatred.
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Aug 13, 2021 05:43
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Herstory Begins Now posted:They're going to try to make hay out of it, but it's hard to overstate how unpopular the afghanistan war had become and ironically conservative opinion solidified even more behind the urgency of the US needing to withdraw after Trump started making noise about dealing with the taliban. I think public opinion will just depend on how bad the pictures coming out of Kabul will be over the next few weeks
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Aug 13, 2021 05:48
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I'll take august 17
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Aug 13, 2021 05:51
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August 20th
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Aug 13, 2021 07:11
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Am I the only one who thinks a jovial bet on when a city falls is a touch distasteful?
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Aug 13, 2021 07:34
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Similar, although on a smaller scale, thing happened in Syria a few months back, where an FOB of some sort was hastily evacuated by the US. There was a video of Russian soldiers rummaging through a canteen with half-drunk cola cans and personal belongings strewn about. Seems like its some sort of doctrine to just GTFO and not worry about gear.
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Aug 13, 2021 07:36
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e: ^ that was the result of a literally overnight order from trump to pull out of syria, so yeah they clearly just threw whatever would fit onto trucks or helis and left anything that didn't.MiddleOne posted:I've never quite understood why the US doesn't at the very least take the time to destroy what they're leaving behind. The US generally does destroy or take bigger stuff, thoroughness depending upon speed of withdrawal ofc. Those were probably drones given to some afghan unit that got captured along with all their other stuff. They're a ~90k drone so it's a decent find, but nothing incredible and definitely nothing super secret. that aside, you're also up against accounting and a lot of stuff is probably cheaper to just procure in the us vs trucking/helicoptering out of some corner of afghanistan to kabul and then again shipping it all the way across the planet. Typo posted:I think public opinion will just depend on how bad the pictures coming out of Kabul will be over the next few weeks eh certain people will inevitably try to make something of it because that's what they do, but good luck selling even the conservative base on 1) actually caring about afghan civilians now and 2) yes we should go spend another trillion dollars and more american (and invariably afghan) lives in a literal lost-cause unwinnable quagmire. I don't think the 'we shouldn't be letting this happen' really can be separated from the 'well what should we do?' Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 07:52 on Aug 13, 2021 |
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Aug 13, 2021 07:38
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Optimistic wild card.... 9/11... (Nov-9)
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Aug 13, 2021 07:41
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TheRat posted:Am I the only one who thinks a jovial bet on when a city falls is a touch distasteful? What date are you picking?
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Aug 13, 2021 07:52
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I will guess the 17th of September for the fall of Kabul, I think the west will do some propping up to avoid it falling. Lost Time posted:https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1425901540045377544
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Aug 13, 2021 08:33
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TheRat posted:Am I the only one who thinks a jovial bet on when a city falls is a touch distasteful? lol 1998 called, they want "things mattering" back
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Aug 13, 2021 08:48
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Anyway, sept 8th, Kabul will reach deal with Taliban. No major fighting will happen in the city.
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Aug 13, 2021 08:50
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TheRat posted:Am I the only one who thinks a jovial bet on when a city falls is a touch distasteful? No. In a thread that’s already less about the Middle East than it is about a majority American or at least European audience aggregating up conflict porn for one another, it’s still pretty distasteful.
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Aug 13, 2021 08:55
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New taliban seem pretty savvy wrt trolling; regardless of when they for-reals capture the rest of Afghanistan, they're going to announce control over the country on 9/11
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Aug 13, 2021 08:57
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mlmp08 posted:No. In a thread that’s already less about the Middle East than it is about a majority American or at least European audience aggregating up conflict porn for one another, it’s still pretty distasteful. yeah this is sport and incredibly cool and very funny. nothing is real dude, it's all spectacle. Are you some type of strange prod who thinks that thinking can be bad. being entertained by suffering doesn't enable it, and as an end result makes people more informed. pretty distasteful that someone would pay people to pretend to be world war II soldiers and film it, and then sell the strange distastful snuff they produce. wisconsingreg fucked around with this message at 09:28 on Aug 13, 2021 |
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Aug 13, 2021 09:25
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Absurd Alhazred posted:I would think that the Middle East thread would be more of a "consider the consequences for the Afghanis and others affected by this" and less of a "dunk on the US administration" place. This is coming off kind of bloodlusty and gross. While everything War Crime Gigolo posts is bloodlusty and gross, I'd like to highlight that the current thread is having a betting pool for when Kabul falls to a political organization made up of fanatics who will likely commit large-scale massacres and who will all but certainly control Afghanistan for at least the next 20-30 years. TheRat posted:Am I the only one who thinks a jovial bet on when a city falls is a touch distasteful? Just you and me apparently.
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Aug 13, 2021 09:32
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https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1426094637219995651
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Aug 13, 2021 09:34
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The Taliban are having fun so why can’t we? https://twitter.com/qomandon/status/1426077511172038657?s=21
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Aug 13, 2021 09:42
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TheRat posted:Am I the only one who thinks a jovial bet on when a city falls is a touch distasteful? Only a touch distasteful?
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Aug 13, 2021 09:42
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I gotta say though, the fact that the Taliban went from complete military defeat, to holding barely a sliver of border areas with Pakistan, to now overrunning and conquering Afghanistan again in a matter of weeks is really one of the biggest and fastest turnarounds and comebacks in modern history and I really can’t think of a similar example of how quickly the Taliban bounced back like this.
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Aug 13, 2021 09:51
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Al-Saqr posted:I gotta say though, the fact that the Taliban went from complete military defeat, to holding barely a sliver of border areas with Pakistan, to now overrunning and conquering Afghanistan again in a matter of weeks is really one of the biggest and fastest turnarounds and comebacks in modern history and I really can’t think of a similar example of how quickly the Taliban bounced back like this. How many of these guys pay their annual Taliban membership fees? How much of this is opportunism from affiliated commanders and local warlords? Everyone knew the Americans where leaving for several years now and have had time to stock up and make plans, and it looks just about every Pashtun there has decided to get it while it is good. We already had 1 ANA army korps surrender in mass (They had 7 in total), that is a lot of equipment and ammo for the Taliban and who knows how many of those soldiers will simply switch sides. Do we have any clear picture on what Kabul's strategy on this is? Will they even try to hold the capital or fall back to their traditional strongholds in the north?
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Aug 13, 2021 10:35
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The "traditional strongholds" were territory held by a charismatic rival islamist long since dead. His base of support are all talibs now and most of that territory is already gone. All that's left is Dostum and even he is barely clinging in Mazar i Sharif. He might go down fighting, but it won't shock me if he decides he's done and just leaves or gives up. The government's strategy is presumably taking this time to pack as much as they can before they head to Zurich, Dubai, Vienna, etc and live out the rest of their lives in extreme luxury buying up property in every city on the planet.
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Aug 13, 2021 10:49
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You guys should read up on what went on in Berlin days before the Soviets invaded. There are different ways of coping with lovely news and humor is one of them. Also, acting high and mighty is annoying as poo poo.
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Aug 13, 2021 11:03
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Ramrod Hotshot posted:9/11 but it won't be reported for two days So... sept 13? Please confirm. Pistol_Pete posted:Also, I claim 6th September for the fall of Kabul. Grip it and rip it posted:I'll take august 17 Negostrike posted:August 20th Cable Guy posted:9/11... (Nov-9) Pump it up! Do it! posted:I will guess the 17th of September for the fall of Kabul, I think the west will do some propping up to avoid it falling. Vasukhani posted:Anyway, sept 8th, Kabul will reach deal with Taliban. No major fighting will happen in the city. Neurolimal posted:New taliban seem pretty savvy wrt trolling; regardless of when they for-reals capture the rest of Afghanistan, they're going to announce control over the country on 9/11 sullat posted:Sept. 3rd
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Aug 13, 2021 11:38
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Al-Saqr posted:I gotta say though, the fact that the Taliban went from complete military defeat, to holding barely a sliver of border areas with Pakistan, to now overrunning and conquering Afghanistan again in a matter of weeks is really one of the biggest and fastest turnarounds and comebacks in modern history and I really can’t think of a similar example of how quickly the Taliban bounced back like this. I’d say it says more about the shocking weakness of the Afghan government than the strenght of the Taliban. I may be wrong but it doesn’t sound like the Taliban are all that well organized or commanded, when they are taking these cities my sense is it’s just a bunch of guys in technicals with AKs, not a complex combined arms operation. Like ISIS in Mosul, they just waltz in and the garrison dissolves. This is not Vietnam where both sides had heavy armor, air power etc. If the national government were even at the level of South Vietnam they probably could have kept it together
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Aug 13, 2021 11:45
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As far as people saying this is distasteful, well, maybe it is. But this has been a disaster that's been foreseen for 10+ years and the thread has already been (naturally) speculating wildly as to when the capital will fall. This is a way for people to put their money where their mouth is, so to speak. And this it a Middle East thread; if all we did was express shock and sorrow at terrible things happening (and yes, the refugee crisis created from Kabul falling will be extremely serious) we wouldn't have much else to do in this thread. Finally, this is in fact a comedy forum Here's where we stand: pre:ThisIsJohnWayne Aug-13 DukeDuke Aug-14 Logic Probed Aug-16 Grip it and rip it Aug-17 Zotix Aug-18 How are u Aug-20 Wulf Aug-26 Koaxke Aug-27 escapegoat Aug-29 Al-Saqr Sep-1 WoodrowSkillson Sep-2 sullat Sep-3 Loving Africa Chaps Sep-5 Pistol_Pete Sep-6 Vasukhani Sep-8 Rosalind Sep-10 HisMajestyBOB Sep-11 Ramrod Hotshot Sep-13 please confirm this is the date you want Pump it up! Do it! Sep-17 Antlerhill Oct-3 Il Federale Oct-7 Count Roland Oct-19 Cable Guy Nov-9 Dante80 Nov-19 Mokotow Dec-2 Shageletic try again Neurolimal try again Negostrike try again Vasukhani posted:So if the Afghan gov capitulates before Kabul falls who wins? We'll see what this looks like. As I said the fall itself could be confusing-- the capture of the presidential palace by the Taliban is the gold standard for our pool.
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Aug 13, 2021 11:45
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https://twitter.com/kazmiwajahat/status/1426099967928803328?s=21 Vice President of Afghanistan reportedly flees to Tajikistan.
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Aug 13, 2021 12:01
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I'll take Sep 4th
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Aug 13, 2021 12:22
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Sep 7th please.
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Aug 13, 2021 12:24
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Kabul falls on August 31st.
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Aug 13, 2021 12:43
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September 25th!
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Aug 13, 2021 12:44
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https://twitter.com/ajenews/status/1426149863885004807?s=21
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Aug 13, 2021 13:02
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Mokotow posted:You guys should read up on what went on in Berlin days before the Soviets invaded. There are different ways of coping with lovely news and humor is one of them. Also, acting high and mighty is annoying as poo poo. To be fair, we're not the ones living in harm's way. But yeah morbid interest is kind of what this thread is all about I guess, whether that's a good thing or a bad thing. 
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Aug 13, 2021 13:04
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August 21st then
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Aug 13, 2021 13:11
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Al-Saqr posted:I gotta say though, the fact that the Taliban went from complete military defeat, to holding barely a sliver of border areas with Pakistan, to now overrunning and conquering Afghanistan again in a matter of weeks is really one of the biggest and fastest turnarounds and comebacks in modern history and I really can’t think of a similar example of how quickly the Taliban bounced back like this. https://twitter.com/AlanRMacLeod/status/1426095222228983817 
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Aug 13, 2021 13:34
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August 31.
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Aug 13, 2021 13:40
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