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niethan posted:Bad news bro Was darf Satire?
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Sep 18, 2021 10:48
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niethan posted:Bad news bro Ich musste das googeln bevor ich sicher war dass es nicht wirklich pasierte
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Sep 18, 2021 10:57
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Lord Stimperor posted:Ich musste das googeln bevor ich sicher war dass es nicht wirklich pasierte 
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Sep 18, 2021 11:01
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Lord Stimperor posted:Ich musste das googeln bevor ich sicher war dass es nicht wirklich pasierte Likewise, I was like "50/50 that's either real or Satire"
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Sep 18, 2021 11:02
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Lord Stimperor posted:Ich musste das googeln bevor ich sicher war dass es nicht wirklich pasierte
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Sep 18, 2021 12:09
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Re: Umfragen: what I read is that those are done exclusively by Festnetz so it’s essentially boomers.xls E: https://twitter.com/gavinkarlmeier/status/1439130195898814467?s=21 Zwille fucked around with this message at 12:30 on Sep 18, 2021 |
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Sep 18, 2021 12:26
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Zwille posted:Re: Umfragen: what I read is that those are done exclusively by Festnetz so it’s essentially boomers.xls Too bad Germany is full of olds, would be funny if real election rolls around and the amtliches Endergebnis is something like 40% Grün, 30% Linke, 20% SPD and the rest is CDU/CSU/AfD/FDP. 
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Sep 18, 2021 13:39
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Just voted.
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Sep 18, 2021 18:23
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One way or another, I'm preparing myself for a "I don't think the polls are right, guys  " moment on election night.
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Sep 18, 2021 22:13
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Srsly don't think that the two nigh-universally reviled candidates are gonna deliver much of a positive surprise for their parties at least
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Sep 18, 2021 22:43
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aphid_licker posted:Srsly don't think that the two nigh-universally reviled candidates are gonna deliver much of a positive surprise for their parties at least Yeah, Lindner's FDP is already going down again and now fighting with AfD to get the coveted price of 2nd smallest party in parliament, he and Laschet are definitely not gonna lead to any surprises
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Sep 19, 2021 13:11
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frankenfreak posted:One way or another, I'm preparing myself for a "I don't think the polls are right, guys Yeah, same, I'm steeling myself for an infuriating AfD gain
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Sep 19, 2021 13:43
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frankenfreak posted:One way or another, I'm preparing myself for a "I don't think the polls are right, guys Linke gets 99% of votes, announces 5 billion € for project to clone Lenin and nationalizes all zahnbürsten as first amtshandlung. Pollsters are stunned
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Sep 19, 2021 13:45
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I'm coming around to the notion of forbidding election polling tbh. People should vote for what they want. This entire Wahlkampf madness around polling is poisonous and everything turns into 5D chess moves around tactical voting and obsessing about swings within the margin of error of those polls.
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Sep 19, 2021 14:34
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Introduce sortition, but for TV guys. You need years of training to turn all politics into meta horse race discussion, but every idiot off the street can luck into asking a good question.
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Sep 19, 2021 14:55
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I think you'll find if someone asks a good question they are coached by the socialist left and planted by the media to disrupt the divine will.
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Sep 19, 2021 15:07
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Antigravitas posted:I'm coming around to the notion of forbidding election polling tbh. Yeah, this time I actually found myself sitting down with a calculator plotting out various scenarios whether e.g. Linke did or didn't make it in, what the breakpoints for various coalitions were, and so on. And I really loving hated it, gently caress tactical voting. Really all I want is just look at program -> cast vote -> be done. Honestly at this point I'm kinda longing for an Australia-style ranked choice voting system.
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Sep 19, 2021 16:52
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Perestroika posted:Honestly at this point I'm kinda longing for an Australia-style ranked choice voting system. Ranked-choice voting is not a form of proportional representation. As fucky as the German system might be, at least it's not something as deeply disproportionate as FPTP or AV. Is MMPR flawed? Yes, incredibly flawed, especially if it tends towards two parties gaining the largest amount of seats, as per eg. Germany or New Zealand. Is it better than FPTP or AV? Undoubtedly.
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Sep 19, 2021 17:10
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If you want to ban election polling you might as well ban any reporting on the election and forbid politicians to speak publicly. It's true that polls have an influence on the result of the election, but so does literally everything else happening related to it. Nobody makes their decision on who to vote for by locking themselves into their homes to read through all the party programs.
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Sep 19, 2021 18:21
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Perestroika posted:And I really loving hated it, gently caress tactical voting. Really all I want is just look at program -> cast vote -> be done. I would like to do it that way. But then you punch your answers into wahlomat and see that the best matches are all in the sub5%-parties, so you filter those out. Then you notice that the first match is led by weirdos, the second ones are weathervanes, and so on... I'm afraid it'll never come down to a choice based on policy in my lifetime
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Sep 19, 2021 18:44
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you dont have to agree 100% with a party. in fact thats the reason they were invented in the first place
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Sep 19, 2021 18:56
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Vulin posted:ban forbid politicians to speak publicly
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Sep 19, 2021 19:09
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All one's decisions are made for dumb reasons, who cares imo
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Sep 19, 2021 19:59
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Lmao triell Moderatorinnen showed up in Miami Vice cosplay
niethan fucked around with this message at 21:21 on Sep 19, 2021 |
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Sep 19, 2021 20:02
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Looking at the polling aggregate on Wikipedia and the last few pages of this thread, can anyone give the lowdown on what's going on to a non-German speaker?
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Sep 20, 2021 00:53
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SoggyBobcat posted:Looking at the polling aggregate on Wikipedia and the last few pages of this thread, can anyone give the lowdown on what's going on to a non-German speaker? Angela Merkel is retiring. CDU/CSU nominated an absolute clown to be her successor (Armin Laschet), while the SPD nominated somebody who in many respects is a male Merkel (Olaf Scholz). CDU/CSU numbers tanked, while the SPD rose above them in the polls. The Greens were pretty high before settling for Annalena Baerbock, who perhaps wasn't the best choice. FDP, AfD and Linke are holding steady at 11%, 11% and 6%, respectively. The polls have been pretty stable for them these last few months. All movement is between CDU/CSU, SPD and Greens. If the polls are correct, forming a government will be rather complicated. The only possible two party coalition that would get a majority of seats in the Bundestag would be the "grand coalition" of CDU/CSU and SPD. But it's probably not that likely that those parties would agree to form a government. First, because traditionally, the chancellor comes from the party with the most seats. Which would mean the SPD's Olaf Scholz. But the conservatives are not likely to agree to become the junior partner in the new coalition. They've been the senior partner for the last 16 years, including 8 years with the SPD as junior partner. As said, tradition dictates that the biggest party gets first dibs at trying to form a coalition. If we exclude CDU/CSU as potential partners, then there are two possible combinations that would have a majority in the Bundestag. Either SPD/Greens/Linke (Rot-Grün-Rot), or SPD/FDP/Greens ("Ampelkoalition", literally "traffic light coalition", because the party colors are red, yellow and green, respectively). A RGR coalition was unlikely in the past, because the Linke had some pretty out there political positions, and because of the bad blood between the SPD and Linke. A lot of Linke politicians are disaffected former SPD members. But the Linke have moderated some of their positions, and are clearly courting the SPD to be part of the new government. This would be the only coalition where all parties are nominally part of the left. An Ampel with the Free Democrats would trend more to the center. The FDP are the party of the rich and business, and are basically like Republicans opposed to any higher taxes. Their party leader pulled out of the 2017 coalition talks between CDU/CSU, Greens and FDP because they didn't meet his demands, especially the Greens. Leading to another unloved grand coalition. It's difficult to see how he would instead be ready to join an even more left wing government. There's no doubt that the SPD and Greens want to govern together. There are several policy areas where their proposals overlap, including many financial questions. Which makes it even more difficult to imagine those two to get together with the FDP, who would surely block a lot of their taxing proposals, making financing their spending ideas difficult to impossible. On the other hand, warning against a left coalition with RGR had been an effective tool in the past, and Olaf Scholz himself is clearly part of the SPD's right wing. So he might not be eager to govern with the Linke. Apart from an SPD led government, there's also one other possible coalition. CDU/CSU, FPD and Greens ("Jamaica", again after the party colors of black, yellow and green). It's just tradition that gives the biggest party the chance to form the government, the only thing that matters is that a coalition has a majority of seats in the Bundestag. The CDU would obviously prefer this, as this would make Armin Laschet chancellor. The FDP also has made it clear that they want to govern with the CDU. And the Greens are governing in just such a coalition in at least one Bundesland. But as I mentioned above, the FDP has pulled out of coalition talks for Jamaica in the last federal elections, preferring to remain opposition party instead. And it's not obvious why the Greens would prefer to govern with two parties that are quite a bit farther apart from their policy positions than the other two left parties. And the differences are especially big when it comes to the environment, the Greens' core issue after all. So it's not at all clear whether those three parties would really agree to form a government. So it would once again come back to RGR, or the Ampel. I think RGR is a little bit more likely, just because I can't really see Lindner agreeing to govern with the SPD and Greens. It wouldn't surprise me if he announced "Jamaica or bust". Whether the three left parties can agree on a government program is also an open question, but it's imho a bit more likely. But this all turns on the polling being right. Which is something that obviously shouldn't be taken for granted. See US or UK polling in the last few years. And we also had some significant polling misses in Germany quite recently. And considering that the Linke could very well fail to get into the Bundestag (by falling below 5%, and failing to win at least three districts directly [polling indicates they can expect to win between 3 and 5 seats]), which would obviously remove the RGR option. And I'm not at all confident that the SPD will really be stronger than CDU/CSU. They're not that far apart. So the situation is pretty fluid, and we likely won't know who will form the new government even after all the votes have been counted next Monday. Torrannor fucked around with this message at 06:28 on Sep 20, 2021 |
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Sep 20, 2021 06:22
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Thanks that’s a good writeup! So a party has to either get 3 direct mandates OR reach 5%, right? If they get 3 direct mandates but only 4%, do those 4% still count, i.e. do they get those Abgeordnete/Listenplätze?
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Sep 20, 2021 06:46
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Zwille posted:Thanks that’s a good writeup! Thanks  Yes, they need to hit either of these milestones. If the Linke fall to 4% but get 3 or more Direktmandate, they would still get about 4% of the seats in the Bundestag. To be filled according to the Landeslisten like usual. If they only win 2 Direktmandate, they would only get those 2 Abgeordnete.
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Sep 20, 2021 06:51
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[Bahamas coalition haunts your peripheral vision]
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Sep 20, 2021 09:03
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Antigravitas posted:[Bahamas coalition haunts your peripheral vision] It does, yeah. Something else that's making me really worried in general, is how the Union was basically comfortably leading the polls since forever. Only really sliding once it became clear to the wider public just how much of a clown Armin Laschet is. I mean, that black void of negative charisma named Olaf Scholz is seen by a sizeable plurality as being the best possible chancellor choice! Doesn't this tell you something? People were more than ready to go with "weiter so" after 16 loving years of CDU/CSU government. And now consider that it wasn't all that unlikely for Markus Söder to become Kanzlerkandidat. And no matter how much I hate Söder, I can't deny that he is charismatic. If he had been the candidate, I think he and the Union would stand quite a lot higher in the polls. Can you imagine Darth Söder as chancellor?? And this could still very well happen if there are not quite enough votes for RGR, the FDP refuses an Ampelkoalition, while the Greens reject Jamaica, leading to fresh elections, with perhaps Söder as the new Union Kanzlerkandidat? So go out and vote, preferably for the Linke with your Zweitstimme, and give your Erststimme whoever has the highest chances of beating the CDU/CSU candidate in your Wahlkreis (unless that would force you to vote AfD, of course).
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Sep 20, 2021 09:14
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They don't need fresh elections to change their chancellor candidate, do they? They can nominate whoever they want and whoever gets their vote passed in the Bundestag gets to be chancellor and form a government. We aren't voting for a chancellor anyway, we are voting for a party, and everything that happens afterwards is tradition and the result of political realities. A CSU chancellor would be disastrous. That would be a good reason to have another plebiscite and join Denmark instead of remaining in the BRD.
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Sep 20, 2021 09:27
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SoggyBobcat posted:Looking at the polling aggregate on Wikipedia and the last few pages of this thread, can anyone give the lowdown on what's going on to a non-German speaker? That's easy: Everything is hosed. Sometimes more and faster, sometimes the same amount but a little slower.
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Sep 20, 2021 09:31
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Are there Umfragen auf Wahlkreisebene or do I have to go by the 2017 numbers? Erststimme for the most likely non-CDU candidate and Zweitstimme Linke sounds like a good idea.
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Sep 20, 2021 09:37
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As disasterous as a CSU chancellor would be, at least Merz wouldn't be in charge
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Sep 20, 2021 09:42
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Antigravitas posted:They don't need fresh elections to change their chancellor candidate, do they? They can nominate whoever they want and whoever gets their vote passed in the Bundestag gets to be chancellor and form a government. We aren't voting for a chancellor anyway, we are voting for a party, and everything that happens afterwards is tradition and the result of political realities. They don't need to, but if they could form a coalition that had a majority of Bundestag seats, they would elect Laschet. Switching to Söder would lead to a lot of criticism even from conservative media about misleading the voters, etc. And I can't imagine the Greens being more likely to join FDP and Union if the latter two attempt to switch the Kanzlerkandidat. That said, there's a very small mercy in that the first vote on who will become chancellor is over the candidate proposed by the Bundespräsident. And longtime SPD member Frank Walter Steinmeier is not likely to propose Söder as chancellor over Laschet. After that, parliament can vote in whoever they like, but they must vote on Steinmeier's candidate first. And if the SPD becomes the biggest party, he will almost assuredly give Scholz the first chance to become Kanzler. Serendipitaet posted:Are there Umfragen auf Wahlkreisebene or do I have to go by the 2017 numbers? https://www.wahlkreisprognose.de/
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Sep 20, 2021 09:43
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quote isn't edit 
Torrannor fucked around with this message at 09:50 on Sep 20, 2021 |
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Sep 20, 2021 09:45
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All three party coalitions require one party to get together with a two thirds+ majority of their ideological opponents, except possibly RGR, if Linke decides that SPD isn't Hitler for coming into power purposes. So maybe renewed spd-cdu isn't that unlikely after all, if the election result allows it. Nobody wants it, but nobody also wants the other options, it's relatively simple to set up and those minister posts are a compelling argument.
aphid_licker fucked around with this message at 10:41 on Sep 20, 2021 |
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Sep 20, 2021 09:58
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Yeah, KroGo seems to be the most likely to me. They were very happy working together for the last administrations and I don't see a reason why they would want to make things more complicated by getting third parties on board. What exactly does it add except more compromising for both Union and SPD? I also just found out that literally any German can be elected chancellor by parliament. They don't even have to have to sit in parliament. I guess that's good for Laschet since this dumbass probably won't have one due to his own hubris
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Sep 20, 2021 10:22
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GABA ghoul posted:Yeah, KroGo seems to be the most likely to me. They were very happy working together for the last administrations and I don't see a reason why they would want to make things more complicated by getting third parties on board. What exactly does it add except more compromising for both Union and SPD? First they need to have more than 50% together and the GroKo is three parties as well.
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Sep 20, 2021 11:05
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BabyFur Denny posted:First they need to have more than 50% together and the GroKo is three parties as well. They currently have a majority of seats according to polls. Remember, stimmverteilung != sitzverteilung
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Sep 20, 2021 11:19
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