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Mar 3, 2022 13:50
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Alchenar posted:No this is actually real, rumour I heard is that the processes are in place to bring Sweden and Finland in within 24 hours if necessary. Their militaries are NATO certified, they do joint exercises, they literally already have seats and offices in NATO. For what it's worth, the Finnish president in an interview a few days ago was saying that for NATO membership to become actual and finalised, the parliaments of the existing 30 NATO members need to ratify the new member(s), which would definitely take like a week or two at least. I don't know the details of these mechanisms though. Perhaps NATO could somehow agree that article 5 applies "instantly" and then do the ratifying etc later? Yeah I don't know and also some of this stuff might also not be public knowledge anyway Also for clarity, there is no sign of any mobilisation on the Finland-Russia border (and there hasn't been for a very long time). But yeah here's hoping that NATO will expand north from Estonia and then immediately west from there. See, that wouldn't be NATO expanding east, so Putin shouldn't have any issue with it 
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Mar 3, 2022 13:51
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Boris Galerkin posted:Why wouldn’t they sign back dated documents if it meant going home? I’m just not sure what the implication is. Not sure about any other implications from a military or Russian perspective, but in any event signing backdated documents is forgery in a lot of jurisdictions, so you can be thrown in jail for that crime.
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Mar 3, 2022 13:51
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Alchenar posted:Oh yeah this. Sport in particular, but anything that gets prestige for a Russian flag on the world stage is a big deal for the regime. There's a reason they went to all the trouble of having a massive state organised doping programme. I feel like for big important things it's a prestige for russia thing, then for little super unimportant things it's "this was supposed to be fun", where like, what does the game look like if you make a russian children's soccer team face a ukrainian one. Does everyone just sit through that whole game with a sad look on their face? Or like, pray that it ends with one of those inspiring stories where the teams become best friends instead of like, punch each other. It feels like on little things it turns into 'this isn't a venue that is up to handling the drama a competition between a russian and Ukrainian represents, are we going to clap when the russian team totally destroys the Ukrainian team? are we going to boo? lets just not"
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Mar 3, 2022 13:54
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Boris Galerkin posted:Why wouldn’t they sign back dated documents if it meant going home? I’m just not sure what the implication is. Most likely those are so that when you get blown up you get written as an accident at exercise and not an official casualty in Ukraine. You weren't there.
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Mar 3, 2022 13:55
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More negotiations with the Russians today in Belarus at 3pm local. Whether than means we see more shelling or less today remains to be seen https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1499352617083969541?t=4FNVITpCingjxKmiF8gSNQ&s=19 https://twitter.com/mrsorokaa/status/1499361429891211270?t=vMxVtft1Txo1-IYgoYwW6g&s=19 Ominous timing https://twitter.com/GuyReuters/status/1499334789559689220?t=iB06Q01yNucGqpPtUPGx9A&s=19 Troubling warnings about this for the last few hours too. Ominous timing as well with the negotiations in a few hours. Would be a good excuse to hold the Ukr reps in Belarus https://twitter.com/motytchak/status/1499359160277811204?t=UZQTOARqgwbv3MBmEW5GeA&s=19
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Mar 3, 2022 13:55
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jaete posted:For what it's worth, the Finnish president in an interview a few days ago was saying that for NATO membership to become actual and finalised, the parliaments of the existing 30 NATO members need to ratify the new member(s), which would definitely take like a week or two at least. I don't know the details of these mechanisms though. Perhaps NATO could somehow agree that article 5 applies "instantly" and then do the ratifying etc later? Yeah I don't know and also some of this stuff might also not be public knowledge anyway The United States could always sign a defense pact with Finland before the NATO membership process got started.
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Mar 3, 2022 13:57
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e: oh yeah it could, and the Joint Expeditionary Force... well you only have to look at the list of members to see exactly what that exists to dojaete posted:For what it's worth, the Finnish president in an interview a few days ago was saying that for NATO membership to become actual and finalised, the parliaments of the existing 30 NATO members need to ratify the new member(s), which would definitely take like a week or two at least. I don't know the details of these mechanisms though. Perhaps NATO could somehow agree that article 5 applies "instantly" and then do the ratifying etc later? Yeah I don't know and also some of this stuff might also not be public knowledge anyway Yeah a week or two is more likely. So you get your first warning from the US that something is up. You probably spend 3-4 weeks having a public debate about whether it is real. You then maybe spend 3-4 weeks having a public debate about whether to ask to join NATO (someone will demand a referendum, even if you don't go down that road). Then you need 2 weeks or so to get the NATO states to ratify it. If nothing goes wrong then you are ready to ask NATO to deploy the NRF to you about the time the Russians start crossing the border. Bad plan. Talk to your reps. Write letters to newspapers. Get in now. Alchenar fucked around with this message at 14:00 on Mar 3, 2022 |
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Mar 3, 2022 13:58
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Does the president of Finland even have any power
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Mar 3, 2022 13:58
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Boris Galerkin posted:Why wouldn’t they sign back dated documents if it meant going home? I’m just not sure what the implication is. It's not explicitly stated by my impression is that they don't think it will affect their chances to get out either way. The army either has forgotten about them, can't or doesn't want to take them back to Russia yet. The guy says the backdated documents are for the higher ups to have prove that they have never been to Ukraine as a soldier. The resignation date is set before the invasion started. The soldiers obviously have nothing to gain from covering the higher ups rear end and expose themselves to possible trouble later if they sign. e: to clarify, these are survivors(and possibly deserters). They are finished in Ukraine and are waiting to be evacuated back to Russia
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Mar 3, 2022 13:58
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TheRat posted:I only mentioned it because the original thread said it was the only bridge towards Kyiv in the area. The tweet I linked also says 'the bridge' rather than 'a bridge' but that doesn't have to mean anything I suppose. It's also worth noting that it takes an hour for engineers to lay a pontoon bridge. Provided that there is suitable place, of course.
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Mar 3, 2022 13:59
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https://mobile.twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1499164245250002944
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Mar 3, 2022 14:00
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Please know there are Russians protesting. Brave people.  https://twitter.com/ASLuhn/status/1499367498994573315?t=E91RqoDxzKYquLLGYYj_LQ&s=19
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Mar 3, 2022 14:01
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GABA ghoul posted:e: to clarify, these are survivors(and possibly deserters). They are finished in Ukraine and are waiting to be evacuated back to Russia
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Mar 3, 2022 14:02
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Boris Galerkin posted:Does the president of Finland even have any power President leads the foreign policy in cooperation with the government and is the commander in chief of armed forces. Any foreign pact would need to be ratified by the parliament if that's what you are asking. This became evident when president Ryti gave assurances to Hitler in 1944 to get arms from Germany, which was deemed nonbinding. Nenonen fucked around with this message at 14:07 on Mar 3, 2022 |
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Mar 3, 2022 14:03
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Finland applying for Nato in any near future seems very short sighted, but our elected officials like to make panic course corrections when they feel threatened. Russia does not have any territorial disputes with Finland and there's no way they have resources to fight prolonged wars against two big armies at the same time.
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Mar 3, 2022 14:04
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Nenonen posted:It's also worth noting that it takes an hour for engineers to lay a pontoon bridge. Provided that there is suitable place, of course. And assuming you can get a bridge layer there. A bunch have been destroyed. From the Ukrainian war equipment tracking project list, Russia has lost: quote: 7 TMM-3 bridge layer: (1, destroyed) (2, abandoned) (3, damaged and abandoned) (4, captured) (5, captured) (6, captured) (7, captured) Here's the article. The above referenced numbers link to pictures of each piece of equipment referenced https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html?m=1 Edit: might as well put this in too. From the article: Russian equipment losses: quote:Russia - 515, of which: destroyed: 209, damaged: 8, abandoned: 129, captured: 169 Ukranian losses (likely underestimate as there have been less photos of Ukr equipment in general) quote:Ukraine - 163, of which: destroyed: 67, damaged: 4, abandoned: 43, captured: 49 KitConstantine fucked around with this message at 14:07 on Mar 3, 2022 |
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Mar 3, 2022 14:05
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the least important possible question: anyone around here still involved with goonfleet / goonswarm in Eve? Is that Russian alliance still around? Is this doing anything to Eve politics? I realize this is the least important dumbest trivial question, just curious.
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Mar 3, 2022 14:05
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fuctifino posted:I've unfollowed quite a few accounts recently for the same reason. I got sucked into a bad content bubble when the conflict kicked off that pumped me full of lovely opinions like the ones you mentioned. (Thank you everyone for piling on me when I made my first post in the other thread. I needed that wakeup slap) It's hard to filter things out when you unconsciously land in an echo chamber. 
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Mar 3, 2022 14:06
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TheRat posted:That thread claims it's the only bridge in the area. If so, wasn't it destroyed a week ago? https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1497100868537270300 Barrel Cactaur posted:Clearly different, one is over a railroad crossing the other over a river. Here's some footage from the destroyed bridge and it is clearly not the bridge over Teteriv just south of Ivankiv. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4zLv_TWHT0o Ukrainian forces have been harassing Russian movements on the highway as late as 26 February so it is possible they might have kept it up for their own mobility as the closest bridge in 25km away. https://twitter.com/Caucasuswar/status/1497598058170834948
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Mar 3, 2022 14:07
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I’m happy to discuss tagging, to make it more useful for everyone. I don’t read other threads, so my off-the-cuff idea would be to: - visible gore, visible death (any target), likely death (any visible target), clear violence against civiliansFor instance - soldier with blown off hand, charred corpses, Bayraktar shooting human convoy, that Kharkiv cruise missile hit, MLRS shelling residential buildings  - light wounds, clear violence against military, particularly emotional moments, heavy language, massive firesFor instance - soldier with bloodied biceps bandage, entrenched military firefight filmed from a highrise, that toddler screaming when airplane’s rocket blew up near the home, videos with more than just blyat and suka going on, Zhaporizhya cruiser missile hit scene on 95th base where everything was on fire no tag - everything else, including violence against an unclear target, and violence against likely empty target For instance - all those night time explosions, soldiers dumping RPGs around the corner, missile hit on TV tower If you use a tag, you must explain why you use a tag. content must be spoilered or not embedded (preferably latter), content should be spoilered if thumbnail is disturbing.Any feedback or suggestions are appreciated. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 14:13 on Mar 3, 2022 |
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Mar 3, 2022 14:07
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WaltherFeng posted:Finland applying for Nato in any near future seems very short sighted, but our elected officials like to make panic course corrections when they feel threatened. In his big speech he emphasized what a mistake the revolution made in 1917 in letting some states have independence and other autonomy. One of those states was Finland.
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Mar 3, 2022 14:07
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:the least important possible question: I'm very happy to have won eve.
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Mar 3, 2022 14:10
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WaltherFeng posted:Finland applying for Nato in any near future seems very short sighted, but our elected officials like to make panic course corrections when they feel threatened. I think there's enormous risk in the assumption that nobody in NATO would take exception to extending Article 5 to cover Finland when it needs it, when Finland has refused to formally take on the burden of collective defence. Sure the US and a coalition of the willing would likely pile in, but it only takes one country in NATO to be awkward to stall that process. One thing the last week has done is change how a lot of people in the West feel about NATO and about confronting Russia. I think one of the second order effects of the world drawing up lines is that there's a risk opinion turns quite rapidly against a country that is seen to try and get the benefit of the NATO insurance policy without paying the premiums.
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Mar 3, 2022 14:10
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fatherboxx posted:No, they havent deployed yet, notice the lack of guns and colored bands Doesn't he say "кто вырвался, кто остался живомy" around the 1m mark?
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Mar 3, 2022 14:11
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Even then realistically that would mean war on multiple fronts and I don't see how that would ever work in Russia's favour.
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Mar 3, 2022 14:12
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Translation of the Russian soldiers from the video posted previously NOTE: from twitter and I don't speak Russian, but someone who does said it was p close 
KitConstantine fucked around with this message at 14:37 on Mar 3, 2022 |
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Mar 3, 2022 14:12
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KitConstantine posted:Troubling warnings about this for the last few hours too. Ominous timing as well with the negotiations in a few hours. Would be a good excuse to hold the Ukr reps in Belarus  That's some next level poo poo. If its real that all needs to be released before someone can push the button and make Ukraine look like equal war criminals
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Mar 3, 2022 14:17
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Alchenar posted:I think there's enormous risk in the assumption that nobody in NATO would take exception to extending Article 5 to cover Finland when it needs it, when Finland has refused to formally take on the burden of collective defence. Sure the US and a coalition of the willing would likely pile in, but it only takes one country in NATO to be awkward to stall that process. Specifically even though Orbán has been publically critical of the war and eventually joined sanctions, he also spent years trying to align with Russia instead of the west. There's a very real possibility that Orbán could delay any NATO membership accession sufficiently at Putin's behest.
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Mar 3, 2022 14:17
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KitConstantine posted:Translation of the Russian soldiers from the video posted previously Looks adequate to me.
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Mar 3, 2022 14:17
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KitConstantine posted:Translation of the Russian soldiers from the video posted previously This isn’t quite as bad, but I deployed with a desert storm vet who was part of a company the US Army left in Kuwait by mistake for months. Militaries are big, callous, horrible bureaucracies that only add to the senseless and soul crushing and desperate nature of war. Catch 22 hits differently after you’ve experienced it up close and in a war zone
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Mar 3, 2022 14:18
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D34THROW posted:
I think there were some previous tweets discussing expected false flag operations from Russia. Could this be what that was referring to?
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Mar 3, 2022 14:18
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Reports of a sunken Estonian-owned cargo ship . If to be believed, it was under Russian Navy control and being used as a shield for landing.
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Mar 3, 2022 14:19
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Pablo Bluth posted:Reports of a sunken Estonian-owned cargo ship . If to be believed, it was under Russian Navy control and being used as a shield for landing. It seems like it hit a mine, idk how thats proof their using it for a naval landing
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Mar 3, 2022 14:22
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WaltherFeng posted:Even then realistically that would mean war on multiple fronts and I don't see how that would ever work in Russia's favour. Beep boop I am Russia, the rational actor beep boop. As we’ve seen.
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Mar 3, 2022 14:22
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Apparently the guy keeping track of all the vehicle losses got himself dmca'd by an Israeli paper for calling out an article of theirs: https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1499374361291149314 His account is still active though so I guess the takedown didn't last very long
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Mar 3, 2022 14:28
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gay picnic defence posted:That said, I think the west will be quite happy to provide weapons to Ukraine as long as there's people still willing to use them on Russians because I think deep down they'd welcome the prospect of Russia's military getting bogged down in a years long conflict similar to Afghanistan. "The West" wants 4 million+ refugees and the complete destruction of billions of dollars of value. What. Deep down the elite of "The West" wants to make money and live peaceful lives. Having a major war on your DOORSTEP (as opposed to the greater distance that Syria or the African conflicts were) is not what *anyone* wants. The amount of refugees is going to dwarf the amount that came from Yugoslavia too. The good news is, that the Russian Military is not going to be bogged down in a long conflict similar to Afghanistan.
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Mar 3, 2022 14:29
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Between all these logistical fuckups and morale issues on the Russian side with just the initial invasion it's like, even if they do take and occupy all of Ukraine, this is the country that thinks it's going to be able to deal with a massive, well funded insurgency in a country larger and more populous than Iraq? 
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Mar 3, 2022 14:30
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Insanely brave message from Chechens in Grozny. https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1499374684802109441?t=5V5GgYkgR89PKvyIWadq0Q&s=19 Link: https://1adat.com/en/news/piket-v-centre-groznogo-v-podderzku-ukraine Text: quote:Greetings from the Chechens.
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Mar 3, 2022 14:30
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KitConstantine posted:Translation of the Russian soldiers from the video posted previously Interesting, does this mean that Russian commanders are resorting to bureaucratic fraud to make themselves look better to their commanders with regards to official figures? If true then it's more evidence that a lot of people from the ground up in the Russian army are systematically lying to their superiors to make themselves look better, and giving their superiors completely inaccurate figures for logistics, supply, manpower, and equipment as a result. Even the competent commanders in the Russian army would be forging ahead with inaccurate numbers and capabilities provided by their own army.
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Mar 3, 2022 14:34
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