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fuctifino posted:The UK finally has a plan Jesus Christ the UK has become so irrelevant. "BREXIT means... good luck suckers"
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Mar 7, 2022 01:34
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fuctifino posted:The UK finally has a plan ah the heady days of a week ago when it seemed like the UK was the only nation that would do something.
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Mar 7, 2022 01:37
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d64 posted:Naive tactics, unrealistic expectations of a quick rout, equipment and logistics problems, unprepared manpower, it all remind me of the Winter war a lot. But: after a couple of months of very big losses, Soviets put their heads together, probably got some of the most incompetent officers out of the important positions, revised doctrine and started doing a lot better. Soon they were winning and could dictate the peace terms. The difference now is that I don’t think Russia can afford several months to get their poo poo together. Their economy is about to crater and I think they need a resolution that sees the sanctions easing within weeks rather than months. Also I think a lot of their problems stem from mechanical issues like poor maintenance which is going to take more than a few months to rectify.
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Mar 7, 2022 01:38
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The UK can give up having UK as their abbreviation for the Ukraine, and they can instead have FART.
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Mar 7, 2022 01:38
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I'm mixed on these guys, but this is a good top level look at the issues facing Russian Manpower. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/explainer-russian-conscription-reserve-and-mobilization quote:Russia is likely rapidly exhausting the manpower it can readily use to generate additional effective combat power even as its forces lose combat effectiveness in Ukraine amid high losses. Russian efforts to mobilize more manpower can bring more people into Russian combat units, but those people are unlikely to be well-enough trained or motivated to generate large amounts of new combat power. Basically, the math continues to not work out for Russia being able to even put enough bodies in Ukraine to defeat the Ukrainian army or occupy the territory. Yes they have a hundred million people, but too few of those have military training. They've had hilariously low interest in building up their reserves from the population.
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Mar 7, 2022 01:40
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Vox Nihili posted:There are laws and a legal system. The state uses that legal system to crush dissent. It is not dissimilar from the situation you'd encounter in places like Turkey or Brazil. Much of the world's population unfortunately lives under similar circumstances. The Russian state says it has laws and a legal system. It also says there are votes and free elections. The president has limited powers and its beholden to the constitution. Maybe between intellectual honesty and semantics choose the former. Correct answer to "what is legal in Russia" is: its legal till it isnt.
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Mar 7, 2022 01:45
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d64 posted:Naive tactics, unrealistic expectations of a quick rout, equipment and logistics problems, unprepared manpower, it all remind me of the Winter war a lot. But: after a couple of months of very big losses, Soviets put their heads together, probably got some of the most incompetent officers out of the important positions, revised doctrine and started doing a lot better. Soon they were winning and could dictate the peace terms. The Soviet Union in the Winter War was fighting a defensive total war, with the entire country on a war footing, and basically the entire populace backing the war effort. They were also being propped up by lend-lease. So now we have Russia, which is about two-thirds of the USSR, fighting a war of conquest that they won't even admit is a war, with a populace that's pretty opposed to that whole idea, and the side that's getting propped up by the West is the other one. In theory their military is bigger, and maybe they can succeed in occupying Ukraine. But then what? Literally millions of Ukrainians now have rifles, boxes of Molotovs, a year's worth of military experience, and a burning desire not to live under Putin's lash. That leaked FSB memo estimated they would need half a million troops to maintain an occupation under more peaceful circumstances, and implied closer to a million for the circumstances as they are.
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Mar 7, 2022 01:47
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Morrow posted:I'm mixed on these guys, but this is a good top level look at the issues facing Russian Manpower. Additional manpower probably doesn’t make much difference if the closest you can get them to the front is the rear of the first bogged down convoy you find blocking the road.
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Mar 7, 2022 01:47
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I think the term of art is rule by law, as opposed to rule of law. There's absolutely laws, it's just that their enforcement is arbitrary/selective and always to the benefit of the state/its supporters, not in service of any abstract concept of justice, as people have been saying. See: almost all modern dictatorships and most Chinese imperial regimes.
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Mar 7, 2022 01:50
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Lead out in cuffs posted:The Soviet Union in the Winter War was fighting a defensive total war, with the entire country on a war footing, and basically the entire populace backing the war effort. They were also being propped up by lend-lease.
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Mar 7, 2022 01:50
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cinci zoo sniper posted:My favourite oblast of Russia, Syria. Gotta fight fire with fire as they say: “the US and UK intelligence services in recent weeks have de facto turned Polish territory into a 'logistical hub' used to supply weapons and smuggle fighters”-- including Daesh* terrorists from Syria reportedly trained at the Al-Tanf military base. https://sputniknews.com/20220306/ukraine-says-nearly-20000-mercenaries-en-route--but-just-who-are-they-1093643491.html
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Mar 7, 2022 01:52
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gay picnic defence posted:Additional manpower probably doesn’t make much difference if the closest you can get them to the front is the rear of the first bogged down convoy you find blocking the road. Theoretically, the US Army War College can quantum leap onto the Russian General Staff and begin to resolve their supply issues. There's no coming back from manpower issues.
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Mar 7, 2022 01:53
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Lead out in cuffs posted:The Soviet Union in the Winter War was fighting a defensive total war, with the entire country on a war footing, and basically the entire populace backing the war effort. They were also being propped up by lend-lease.
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Mar 7, 2022 01:55
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Today hasn't been a lot of movement outisde of Russia taking three airbases in the South West near Mykolaiv, Russian's mainly continue to target infrastructure and presumably sort their poo poo out or wait for fuel lines. They've also been shelling evacuation routes, taking out a Train Station and Bridge in the West to slow people leaving. Amazingly Mauripol is still holding on, but Ukrainian counter attack didn't really seem to achieve much to alleviate things there. There's been an absolute ton of reports of shelling Kharkiv in the East. Pretty much every area of the city has someone reporting a hit or something on fire. Definitely feels like it's their main focus right now. Amazingly this is the second time the Russian's have now shot at a Nuclear facility as the rocket striked the Kharkiv Institute of Physics and Technology has a working nuclear reactor in it. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-kharkiv-nuclear-reactor-rocket-b2029663.html
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Mar 7, 2022 01:56
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I mean allegedly Russia has already been sending conscripts into Ukraine with trained military, so I don't think there is much else they can pull from if that's the case We're at the point now where the BEST case scenario for Putin is that Russian soldiers are stuck in a decades-long bloody occupation of Ukraine that accomplishes nothing. I don't think they can realistically fund this with the level of sanctions they are under.
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Mar 7, 2022 01:57
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DJ_Mindboggler posted:I think the term of art is rule by law, as opposed to rule of law. There's absolutely laws, it's just that their enforcement is arbitrary/selective and always to the benefit of the state/its supporters, not in service of any abstract concept of justice, as people have been saying. See: almost all modern dictatorships and most Chinese imperial regimes. I mean looks around southernly
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Mar 7, 2022 01:58
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Hey, did we sort out if being a lawyer in Russia is a good gig or not?
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Mar 7, 2022 01:59
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the popes toes posted:Gotta fight fire with fire as they say: ... I assume you are joking but just in case your link for this is to Sputnik news. A Russian government news operation.
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Mar 7, 2022 02:02
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the popes toes posted:Hey, did we sort out if being a lawyer in Russia is a good gig or not? Depends if you're defense or prosecution, I imagine.
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Mar 7, 2022 02:02
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You don't need to go back to the Winter War for an analogue; this is the First Chechen War all over again, more or less. The "less" being, Ukraine is a vastly superior opponent to a bunch of Chechen rebels.
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Mar 7, 2022 02:04
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FlamingLiberal posted:I mean allegedly Russia has already been sending conscripts into Ukraine with trained military, so I don't think there is much else they can pull from if that's the case The current conscripts are the ones who were unlucky enough to be already serving their one year while Ukraine was invaded. There is still a constant supply of kids turning 18 and getting conscripted that Putin can immediately send to the frontline. If he gets desperate he can draft everyone else of military age, however, that is much more likely to lead to public unrest.
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Mar 7, 2022 02:06
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KitConstantine posted:... I assume you are joking but just in case your link for this is to Sputnik news. A Russian government news operation. Ha, I was just amused at the contrast between the statements. But I do think it's very useful to browse the other side's news organs. oh, since we're talking about law: THE HAGUE (Reuters) - Ukraine will ask the United Nations' top court on Monday to issue an emergency ruling requiring Russia to stop its invasion, arguing that Moscow's justification for the attack is based on a faulty interpretation of genocide law
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Mar 7, 2022 02:06
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Ynglaur posted:Eh, they were maintaining excellent spacing and were prioritizing speed. They could have low-crawled out to the firing position, but that would have taken longer--the targets might have moved--and if they got detected they'd be suppressed anyways. Those were some fairly long shots (200-300m, maybe? I could use some help with that estimate), but close enough to see which direction the turret--and thus optics--were facing. The guys in that video are federal police (basically kyiv swat) btw, which is even more hilarious. And those are good tactics in play!
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Mar 7, 2022 02:08
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Rad Russian posted:The current conscripts are the ones who were unlucky enough to be already serving their one year while Ukraine was invaded. There is still a constant supply of kids turning 18 and getting conscripted that Putin can immediately send to the frontline. If he gets desperate he can draft everyone else of military age, however, that is much more likely to lead to public unrest. This is all true, but sending fresh untrained conscripts into smashed up cities you don't actually control, because a bunch of dudes and duettes with bazookas were hiding down in the nuclear shelters they built all over town, is a recipe for a Bad Time.
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Mar 7, 2022 02:09
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Franks Happy Place posted:This is all true, but sending fresh untrained conscripts into smashed up cities you don't actually control, because a bunch of dudes and duettes with bazookas were hiding down in the nuclear shelters they built all over town, is a recipe for a Bad Time. Sending your elite paratroopers in doesn't seem to be great either. Defended cities are hard to take. Who knew?
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Mar 7, 2022 02:11
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Franks Happy Place posted:You don't need to go back to the Winter War for an analogue; this is the First Chechen War all over again, more or less.
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Mar 7, 2022 02:11
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Pook Good Mook posted:Jesus Christ the UK has become so irrelevant. They wanted to be an Empire again. Instead they became ever more irrelevant.
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Mar 7, 2022 02:12
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CommieGIR posted:They wanted to be an Empire again. Instead they became ever more irrelevant. Are you talking about Britain or Russia?
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Mar 7, 2022 02:13
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Andrei V Kozyrev Foreign Minister of Russia, 1990-1996. Member of the State Duma till 2000 @andreivkozyrev First of all, I want to examine where the questioning of Putin’s rationality started. To understand why the invasion was rational for Putin, we have to step into his shoes. Three beliefs came together at the same time in his calculus: 1. Ukraine’s condition as a country 2. Russian military’s condition 3. The West’s geopolitical condition 1. Ukraine’s condition. Putin spent the last 20 years believing that Ukraine is not a real nation and, at best, should be a satellite state. Maidan ended any hope of keeping Ukraine independent and pro-Kremlin. He thought the West was behind it. If Ukraine’s government cannot be kept independent and pro-Kremlin covertly, as he likely concluded, then he will overtly force it to be. He also started to believe his own propagandists that Ukraine is run by a Nazi-Bandera junta. Perfect pretext to “de-Nazify” Ukraine. 2. Russian military. The Kremlin spent the last 20 years trying to modernize its military. Much of that budget was stolen and spent on mega-yachts in Cyprus. But as a military advisor you cannot report that to the President. So they reported lies to him instead. Potemkin military 3. The West. The Russian ruling elite believed its own propaganda that Pres. Biden is mentally inept. They also thought the EU was weak because of how toothless their sanctions were in 2014. And then the U.S. botched its withdrawal from Afghanistan, solidifying this narrative. If you believe all three of the above to be true and your goal is to restore the glory of the Russian Empire (whatever that means), then it is perfectly rational to invade Ukraine. He miscalculated on all three, but that doesn’t make him insane. Simply wrong and immoral.
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Mar 7, 2022 02:14
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d64 posted:I've been thinking of this too. At the time of the second war it seemed impossible the place could ever be anything but a war zone, with the asymmetric conflict just smoldering forever, but hey, today it is a part of Russia, more or less, and the resistance is no longer much of a problem for the larger nation. A huge money sink, but it still turned out better for the Russians than I ever thought it would. I think that might change a bit depending on how this goes. Kadyrov has sent a lot of his personal army out on this adventure and if it keeps looking like a disaster his position is gonna be weakened significantly. Also the Imams that declared jihad on Kadyrov may debate if it's okay for Muslims to fight explicitly on the side of Ukraine (Muslims fighting Muslims in service of non-Muslims is typically haram), but attacking Kadyrov directly as part of a rebellion in Chechnya is a-ok.
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Mar 7, 2022 02:16
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The Lone Badger posted:Are you talking about Britain or Russia? Oooo, good question.
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Mar 7, 2022 02:16
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The Lone Badger posted:Are you talking about Britain or Russia? Yes.
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Mar 7, 2022 02:17
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Nobody cares what that tiny island of racist non-EU TERFs thinks about a single thing, Boris is less relevant to this conversation than the PM of Cyprus. Shut up and let the real countries like Poland deal with this, that's what you wanted wasn't it? Somebody fucked around with this message at 22:33 on Mar 7, 2022 |
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Mar 7, 2022 02:17
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Franks Happy Place posted:Nobody cares what that tiny island of racist non-EU TERFs thinks about a single thing, Boris is less relevant to this conversation than the PM of Cyprus. The UK is not a tiny island, its literally one of the world's largest islands.
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Mar 7, 2022 02:21
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d64 posted:Soon they were winning and could dictate the peace terms. The can dictate all they want. The west isn't going to drop sanctions just because they bullied the hell out of Ukraine.
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Mar 7, 2022 02:28
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So the officially counted and visually verified number of Russian tanks destroyed by the Ukrainian Army is rapidly approaching the entire number of MBTs available to Great Britain; and yet I still read that I need to be prepared for Ukraine to fall within a week. Still don't get it. https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1500592555938963456?s=20&t=t-_4jszk0SI5p055X1erfA
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Mar 7, 2022 02:32
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Calibanibal posted:The UK is not a tiny island, its literally one of the world's largest islands. <laughs in australian>
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Mar 7, 2022 02:33
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Calibanibal posted:The UK is not a tiny island, its literally one of the world's largest islands. Canada owns empty Arctic reefs bigger than the small island known as Great Britain.
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Mar 7, 2022 02:34
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The Lone Badger posted:<laughs in australian> I mean, technically ever continent is an island.
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Mar 7, 2022 02:35
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I looked it up on Google and it looks tiny. Hard to say.
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