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Lmao https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1535260675353747456?t=zcPmt0zA1cwDT0QbloB5nQ&s=19 quote:Consumer sentiment declined by 14% from May, continuing a downward trend over the last year and reaching its lowest recorded value, comparable to the trough reached in the middle of the 1980 recession. All components of the sentiment index fell this month, with the steepest decline in the year-ahead outlook in business conditions, down 24% from May. Consumers' assessments of their personal financial situation worsened about 20%. Forty-six percent of consumers attributed their negative views to inflation, up from 38% in May; this share has only been exceeded once since 1981, during the Great Recession. Overall, gas prices weighed heavily on consumers, which was no surprise given the 65 cent increase in national gas prices from last month (AAA). Half of all consumers spontaneously mentioned gas during their interviews, compared with 30% in May and only 13% a year ago. Consumers expect gas prices to continue to rise a median of 25 cents over the next year, more than double the May reading and the second highest since 2015. In addition, a majority of consumers spontaneously mentioned supply shortages for the ninth consecutive month. Wrong thread, but this is is lower than anytime during the great recession and is in fact the lowest sentiment on record. Mr Hootington fucked around with this message at 15:18 on Jun 10, 2022 |
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Jun 10, 2022 15:13
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Mr Hootington posted:These numbers are not good. March was not the peak. Initial quick scanning is telling me everything is accelerating. June is on track to be worse. I need to stress again that Biden’s treasury secretary thought it was amazing how households were pessimistic about the economy when there have been jobs gains. The democrats is just the Maria Antoinette party at this point
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Jun 10, 2022 15:14
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MickeyFinn posted:So what will paying attention to the hearing get me? A look at what an insurrection looks like when these yahoos don't bring their guns. The sequel will have a lot more action scenes.
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Jun 10, 2022 15:15
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Oracle posted:It is a very dangerous precedent and was exactly what Trump was attempting to do with all the Hunter Biden Ukraine stuff and trying to get Comey to go along with his nutty bullshit. Weaponizing the Justice Department to go after your political enemies is just another ten steps down the road to tinpot dictatorsville. Appointing an independent investigator is the correct call but the Republicans put the kibosh to that pretty quick. No legal document can because fascists don't believe in the law. And they're correct, the law is fake and only works because we believe in it and agree to follow it. In the same way that tolerance only works if you swiftly eject anyone who is trying to push non-tolerance, rule of law only works if you swiftly eject anyone who doesn't believe in it and agree to it. Historical precedent has shown again and again that fascist groups rising to power need to be swiftly outlawed and pushed out or else they will keep trying to subvert the law until it works and they have control. Saying it's like a slippery slope is like saying allowing someone to shoot a rabid animal to save lives could open up a slippery slope to murder being legal.
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Jun 10, 2022 15:29
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All wage growth has been erased
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Jun 10, 2022 15:41
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Mr Hootington posted:All wage growth has been erased Larry Summers and Jerome Powell are giddy at the news.
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Jun 10, 2022 15:45
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Mr Hootington posted:All wage growth has been erased And some folks on CNBC are calling for a Volcker shock! This is crazy
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Jun 10, 2022 15:47
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Nucleic Acids posted:Larry Summers and Jerome Powell are giddy at the news. Not yet. Wages are still "growing", but the purchasing power of those wage increases are decreasing faster. They want 0 "wage growth". So someone could be technically correct in saying wages are growing, but it would be in bad faith and disingenuous. It leaves out that inflation is causing wage reduction via purchasing power reduction.
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Jun 10, 2022 15:47
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At least the "Biden Boom" is a real thing, but not quite like the lanyards meant.Gumball Gumption posted:No legal document can because fascists don't believe in the law. And they're correct, the law is fake and only works because we believe in it and agree to follow it. In the same way that tolerance only works if you swiftly eject anyone who is trying to push non-tolerance, rule of law only works if you swiftly eject anyone who doesn't believe in it and agree to it. Historical precedent has shown again and again that fascist groups rising to power need to be swiftly outlawed and pushed out or else they will keep trying to subvert the law until it works and they have control. edit: I think 1/6 was a big deal specifically because it was an attempt at a coup by a sitting president. It was an incoherent and hamfisted that had precisely zero chance of success, but still. To me, the fact that this will have no real consequences for anyone that matters is a much bigger deal. You can just do this stuff now, its fine. cat botherer fucked around with this message at 16:07 on Jun 10, 2022 |
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Jun 10, 2022 15:50
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Mr Hootington posted:All wage growth has been erased "There. See what happens when we pay workers more money?" - Economists
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Jun 10, 2022 16:13
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Mr Hootington posted:All wage growth has been erased But consider the median wage increase.
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Jun 10, 2022 16:18
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Man it's so expensive to even just stay alive
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Jun 10, 2022 16:18
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Mr Hootington posted:These numbers are not good. March was not the peak. Initial quick scanning is telling me everything is accelerating. June is on track to be worse. Holy crap, an 8.4 annual drop in real income and an annual energy increase of almost 50 percent. That food-prices number looks kind of understated at an annual 14.4 percent; is it because of the criteria used for calculation, or because food inflation has already topped off?
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Jun 10, 2022 16:20
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Willa Rogers posted:Holy crap, an 8.4 annual drop in real income and an annual energy increase of almost 50 percent. I'm not seeing the 8.4 annual drop, can you describe it for me? I see 0.7% in "real weekly wages" and 8.6% increase in YOY "Consumer Prices".
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Jun 10, 2022 16:26
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Willa Rogers posted:Holy crap, an 8.4 annual drop in real income and an annual energy increase of almost 50 percent. Real weekly earnings is a -3.9% y/y (3% seasonal adjusted *jerkoff motion) https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1535242615435800576?t=M1xuNhv51IA1emNzOheLsg&s=19 Disposable income is only -4% below trend.  Not at the 8.4% but still very bad! Take home food prices is at 12%. https://twitter.com/byHeatherLong/status/1535245905045209090?t=A5RUTMCpDpy9wLdm7Qp6oQ&s=19 Food inflation has definitely not topped off.
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Jun 10, 2022 16:33
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^^^ Thanks for the correction!Mr Hootington posted:Lmao  This is an incredible drop, but even more so when one remembers how last year's numbers were touted by liberals as a sign of a healthy economy.
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Jun 10, 2022 16:33
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Mr Hootington posted:Wrong thread, but this is is lower than anytime during the great recession and is in fact the lowest sentiment on record. "In addition, a majority of consumers spontaneously mentioned supply shortages for the ninth consecutive month." Do they mean fuel supply shortages or shortages of something else? The way the sentence tacked on after covering gas prices is confusing. I ask because I haven't seen anything about fuel shortages.
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Jun 10, 2022 16:37
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Willa Rogers posted:"In addition, a majority of consumers spontaneously mentioned supply shortages for the ninth consecutive month." That could be anything from people expressing concern about shortages potentially happening or they couldn't buy something when hey went to the store. Remember the baby formula shortage was on everyone's mind this last month.
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Jun 10, 2022 16:42
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The economic news people are posting is really slanted and unfair to the Biden admin. Let's check out what neoliberal economists are thinking: https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/1535241330372272129?cxt=HHwWgoCz1eP2os4qAAAA  It's pretty galling that the political/econ class is still insisting that the piss falling on us is rain.
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Jun 10, 2022 16:48
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I fully expected us to be in an a actual economic boom by now. I did not expect global political and economic leadership to witness ongoing disruptions to the global supply chains and just say “seems fine.” When grocery store shortages first became a regular thing, I took it as a given there would be some regulation limiting just in time shipping for critical goods. This has been just another thing where I’ve realized that as cynical as I am, I wasn’t cynical enough.
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Jun 10, 2022 16:55
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the '20s sure does feel like a speedrun/replay of the '70s.
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Jun 10, 2022 16:57
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^^^ Or of the late 1920s. What the hell is Wolfers even trying to get at with this tautology? quote:And while energy prices have risen, once they stop rising, they'll stop contributing to inflation. "The beatings will continue until they stop" is how it reads.
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Jun 10, 2022 17:00
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https://i.imgur.com/AMJjldL.mp4
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Jun 10, 2022 17:01
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MickeyFinn posted:So what will paying attention to the hearing get me? Hours of "you are a bad man, sir!" and a few details? For the people on the committee: You get to watch a bunch of people getting increasingly red in the face attempting to shame an indifferent dog for making GBS threads on the rug. For the people watching: This is Two Minutes Hate.
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Jun 10, 2022 17:01
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queeb posted:Man it's so expensive to even just stay alive
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Jun 10, 2022 17:03
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cat botherer posted:The economic news people are posting is really slanted and unfair to the Biden admin. Let's check out what neoliberal economists are thinking: You think that is good. Look at the Harvard Econ professor and former Obama economic advisor not understand consumer spending is increasing because prices are climbing. https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact/status/1535284009298690049?t=Cnq3_kCyntwgGy5KOKdCCA&s=19 You want to know something very unsettling too? This last week a couple of widely read online finance publications and a couple of economists were talking about how the consumer is still strong because they have "untapped equity that can be leveraged." People in here won't want to hear it, but the number #1 that can be done to release massive amounts of pressure would be lifting all Russian sanctions by the USA and EU. Mr Hootington fucked around with this message at 17:10 on Jun 10, 2022 |
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Jun 10, 2022 17:07
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Sample size of one, and all that, but I have no interest in watching the hearings, because I'm fairly certain how this hearing is going and will continue to go. Dems present evidence and make their case. GOP will grandstand and cry about how they're being unfairly targeted. 5 days later, a vote is held along party lines and nothing fundamentally changes, since the Dems don't want to look like a group of meanies and actually punish their colleagues. Not saying 1/6 isn't important or something that should be ignored, but you have one side playing with the rules against another side that doesn't give a gently caress about rules. You can't win that game, and so this hearing sadly seems like a waste of time. E: Mr Hootington posted:You want to know something very unsettling too? This last week a couple of widely read online finance publications and a couple of economists were talking about how the consumer is still strong because they have "untapped equity that can be leveraged." Holy poo poo. "See the economy is fine because people still have things they can borrow against and go further into debt!" Velocity Raptor fucked around with this message at 17:14 on Jun 10, 2022 |
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Jun 10, 2022 17:09
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Mr Hootington posted:You think that is good. Look at the Harvard Econ professor and former Obama economic advisor not understand consumer spending is increasing because prices are climbing. Inflation is good because it means people are spending more is for sure a take I would expect from an economist. I swear to god Economists are the astrology or acupuncture of legitimate fields of study. just complete woo horseshit with a veneer of truthiness and sheer momentum from legacy.
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Jun 10, 2022 17:13
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:Inflation is good because it means people are spending more is for sure a take I would expect from an economist. I swear to god Economists are the astrology or acupuncture of legitimate fields of study. just complete woo horseshit with a veneer of truthiness and sheer momentum from legacy. A lot of it is yes.
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Jun 10, 2022 17:16
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bird food bathtub posted:What would the response have been like if it was BLM protesters at the capitol? What happened to Occupy Wall Street? They would never have gotten inside, because members of Congress wouldn't be feeding them info, and Trump administration members wouldn't be telling the Capitol Police to pull back rather than clash with them. Gumball Gumption posted:No legal document can because fascists don't believe in the law. And they're correct, the law is fake and only works because we believe in it and agree to follow it. In the same way that tolerance only works if you swiftly eject anyone who is trying to push non-tolerance, rule of law only works if you swiftly eject anyone who doesn't believe in it and agree to it. Historical precedent has shown again and again that fascist groups rising to power need to be swiftly outlawed and pushed out or else they will keep trying to subvert the law until it works and they have control. When the pro-fascism party is getting 46% of the nationwide popular vote and politically dominates roughly half the states, it's far too late to just declare them illegal and start rounding them up. Especially when the law enforcement agencies who'd necessarily be tasked with doing the roundup also happen to openly sympathize with the fascists. This goes beyond decorum or Constitutional rights or any of that poo poo. When the fascists are big enough to pose a real threat, that means they're already too strong to simply outlaw them with the stroke of a pen. It's not like we can just purge the entire white population of the entire American Southeast.
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Jun 10, 2022 17:17
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:Inflation is good because it means people are spending more is for sure a take I would expect from an economist. I swear to god Economists are the astrology or acupuncture of legitimate fields of study. just complete woo horseshit with a veneer of truthiness and sheer momentum from legacy. Economics is to capitalism what the Roman Catholic Church was to monarchy for 15 centuries.
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Jun 10, 2022 17:21
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Velocity Raptor posted:Sample size of one, and all that, but I have no interest in watching the hearings, because I'm fairly certain how this hearing is going and will continue to go. There was literally no grandstanding last night. This isn't a normal congressional committee where the seats are split between the parties evenly and decided by the majority/minority leaders. The footage was previously unseen and incredibly compelling.
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Jun 10, 2022 17:24
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Main Paineframe posted:They would never have gotten inside, because members of Congress wouldn't be feeding them info, and Trump administration members wouldn't be telling the Capitol Police to pull back rather than clash with them. What do you recommend for the next steps considering the fascists are about to permanently assume control of our government?
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Jun 10, 2022 17:25
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Mr Hootington posted:You think that is good. Look at the Harvard Econ professor and former Obama economic advisor not understand consumer spending is increasing because prices are climbing. 1. Lol at Furman; is he being disingenuous or does he truly believe it? Either way, it's damning. 2. I noticed that in this week's Yougov polling, Biden's approval was underwater on the topic of the Russian/Ukraine war, and it's been one of his higher topic approvals before now, similar to his handling of covid. There was a separate section later in the poll with voter approvals for various actions that Biden could take or has taken toward Russia that I didn't read, but now I want to go back & see if sanctions are dropping in approval. It'd be weird if Biden's blaming Russia for oil increases turns around on him by voters associating it with higher gas prices, as in "Stop punishing us with your sanctions." eta: I looked it up and 2/3 of voters still support sanctions on Russia & banning exports; they didn't break out gas separately. Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 17:32 on Jun 10, 2022 |
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Jun 10, 2022 17:25
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Fuckin wow. Well, look how much consumer spending has increased (when it costs people $90 to fill up their car and their gorcery bill has doubled)! For some reason, people keep spending more money even though many people are broke. How do we explain this, economic expert, Hugh Jidiette? Jesus Christ, people need to EAT and have transportation and are being totally gouged right now but we need experts to try and explain why consumer spending is up during all this turmoil. Why, a reasonable person would think they'd be SAVING right now but that is not the case for some mysterious reason. Hmm...I see. Thank you, Hugh! In other news, coming up: a video of a funny cat that went viral and, boy, how about that Kardashian clan? *cut to payday loan commercial* Best Friends posted:I fully expected us to be in an a actual economic boom by now. Why did you expect an economic boom?
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Jun 10, 2022 17:27
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Main Paineframe posted:They would never have gotten inside, because members of Congress wouldn't be feeding them info, and Trump administration members wouldn't be telling the Capitol Police to pull back rather than clash with them. Not every white American in the south east is a fascist and we still allow active conspirators of the coup to hold office. I guess you're right about it being too late but by that argument it's been too late since the early 1900's so uh, what are we waiting for if fascists have been in control since the early 1900's. Christ, this whole argument is that it's already too late to enforce laws in a country based on the rule of law. That's not good or an argument for why we shouldn't just rip off that bandaid and pick these fights before it gets even worse. Gumball Gumption fucked around with this message at 17:33 on Jun 10, 2022 |
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Jun 10, 2022 17:30
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Willa Rogers posted:It'd be weird if Biden's blaming Russia for oil increases turns around on him by voters associating it with higher gas prices, as in "Stop punishing us with your sanctions." We were heading towards some sort of energy crisis because of shortages before the Ukraine war. The sanctions have just made it so much worse. I do not think thebsanctions will be lofted for 3 reasons. 1. It makes biden and the West look weak. 2. It means biden and the West lost the economic war. 3. The sanctions are not about punishing Russia, but enriching usa companies by looting Europe.
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Jun 10, 2022 17:32
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Solkanar512 posted:There was literally no grandstanding last night. This isn't a normal congressional committee where the seats are split between the parties evenly and decided by the majority/minority leaders. The footage was previously unseen and incredibly compelling. Are any of the political organizers in jail or likely to be because of this? Is Trump no longer allowed to run for president? Is COINTELPRO looking at people lighter than a paper bag? Is there a purge of white nationalists in law enforcement? Is Fox being bankrupted for its part in this? Well at least the decline of the country will be well documented with slick production values I guess.
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Jun 10, 2022 17:33
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BiggerBoat posted:
During COVID’s first year, I foolishly expected that covid would not become a permanent condition, and I foolishly expected the Biden gov to maintain their foot on stimulus (though this assumption was shattered quickly with the talking point that $1400 = $2000). Basically, all the economic impacts of covid reversing + ongoing aggressive stimulus were my assumptions that led to me to expecting a boom. Whoops.
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Jun 10, 2022 17:41
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Mr Hootington posted:We were heading towards some sort of energy crisis because of shortages before the Ukraine war. The sanctions have just made it so much worse. Yeah, and from the sound of it, it looks like we're going to get back to sucking up to the Saudis instead
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Jun 10, 2022 17:42
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