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Halisnacks
Jul 18, 2009

Rustybear posted:

sure: massive debt burden + ramped-up exposure to rate rises

the fact that they can afford their home is totally orthogonal to the issue. if they can afford to buy in a high price/low rate enviroment then they can almost certainly afford to buy in a low price/high rate enviroment, at least in the latter the debt is inflated away as productivity/income rise (lol)

Assuming the exact same monthly mortgage costs in these scenarios, in the former more of their payment is capital repayment, which should bear some relationship to the value of the asset they are building toward ownership of.

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Rustybear
Nov 16, 2006
what the thunder said

Halisnacks posted:

Assuming the exact same monthly mortgage costs in these scenarios, in the former more of their payment is capital repayment, which should bear some relationship to the value of the asset they are building toward ownership of.

ok? congrats you now own a hovel worth 500k which you can trade for a cardboard box worth 400k or a shed worth 600k

this is so much better than crushing the 150k mortgage on a 4 bed detached in just shy of two decades or whatever the average used to be

crispix
Mar 28, 2015

Grand-Maman m'a raconté
(Les éditions des amitiés franco-québécoises)

Hello, dear

so then what you do is you get yourself really wankered up on coke for your attendance at the queen's funeral

learnincurve
May 15, 2014

Smoosh

xtothez posted:


there's going to be a significant number of regular homeowners who face significantly increased mortgage, energy, and general living costs on top of possible job losses in a new recession. Under the current government there won't be any support for them.


Start of the pandemic, I spoke about what it’s like being on long term benefits and what you had to do to economise, Kind people said to apply to the solidarity fund. I said I wouldn’t because my troubles are constant and consistent. I have never had money so no one has ever given me credit and therefore I have no debts, I can budget and plan, where as it’s the unexpected that will cripple you.

When you look at the big financial picture someone who works in IT earning £32k a year has less money than me. They are - £300k on house, car, credit card, student depts and so on and I am £800 deep in my overdraft. I also have soft skills that you learn through being long term poor, my phone hasn’t been just allowed to roll on to the next contract for example, I know when everything gets yellow stickered in each local supermarket. I can cook full one pot meals from scratch using only oven/pressure cooker/air fryer/hob and slow cooker. I am basically the greatest person with money you will ever meet.

Recession hits and trust me I’ve already planned well in advance what I can do to avoid freezing to death this winter (15 tog duvets). Your IT engineer is hosed

Halisnacks
Jul 18, 2009

Rustybear posted:

ok? congrats you now own a hovel worth 500k which you can trade for a cardboard box worth 400k or a shed worth 600k

this is so much better than crushing the 150k mortgage on a 4 bed detached in just shy of two decades or whatever the average used to be

You’re positioning this as if interest rates are the only thing that have bearing on property values.

The base rate has been <1% since 2009 and property prices have skyrocketed in the 13 years since then. Are you trying to say that an owner-occupier who bought in 2009 hasn’t benefited massively from a low-interest rate environment?

Guavanaut
Nov 27, 2009

Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998



Toilet Rascal

Rustybear posted:

ok? congrats you now own a hovel worth 500k which you can trade for a cardboard box worth 400k or a shed worth 600k
The good news is that'll only be about $5000

Gorn Myson
Aug 8, 2007






This is just like what would have happened under Jeremy Corbyn

Guavanaut
Nov 27, 2009

Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998



Toilet Rascal
Welcome to communism (that's when the government does things that don't work)

crispix
Mar 28, 2015

Grand-Maman m'a raconté
(Les éditions des amitiés franco-québécoises)

Hello, dear
tory MPs are still going on TV saying there'd be chaos under labour lol

forkboy84
Jun 13, 2012

Corgis love bread. And Puro


Rustybear posted:

ok? congrats you now own a hovel worth 500k which you can trade for a cardboard box worth 400k or a shed worth 600k

this is so much better than crushing the 150k mortgage on a 4 bed detached in just shy of two decades or whatever the average used to be

My folks got a 3 bedroom semi-detached with a fair sized garden in 1990 for about £32k. Even adjusted for inflation that is £80k today. 80 grand could get you a rundown 3 bed that needs lots of work and is 2 & a half hours by train from Inverness, up in Helmsdale. I have no loving idea what you'd do for work. Would have Edwyn Collins of Orange Juice fame as a neighbour though. Only other place in that bracket in the Highlands with a similar number of bedrooms is even further north in Wick.

My point is merely the housing market is loving stupid and so is capitalism

Halisnacks
Jul 18, 2009
So in an attempt to reassure the markets, the Treasury has now said they will publish plans to tackle debt. If they still want to introduce even more tax cuts (as Kwarteng said just yesterday), the only option is cuts to public spending. Yay!

peanut-
Feb 17, 2004
Fun Shoe
Yes the way the actually square this circle is going to be aggressive spending cuts.

Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

Aggressive spending cuts from aggressively spending cunts.

qhat
Jul 6, 2015


Speaking as someone who is earning in Canadian dollars, I'm looking forward to coming home for the Christmas Holidays.

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

learnincurve posted:

Start of the pandemic, I spoke about what it’s like being on long term benefits and what you had to do to economise, Kind people said to apply to the solidarity fund. I said I wouldn’t because my troubles are constant and consistent. I have never had money so no one has ever given me credit and therefore I have no debts, I can budget and plan, where as it’s the unexpected that will cripple you.

When you look at the big financial picture someone who works in IT earning £32k a year has less money than me. They are - £300k on house, car, credit card, student depts and so on and I am £800 deep in my overdraft. I also have soft skills that you learn through being long term poor, my phone hasn’t been just allowed to roll on to the next contract for example, I know when everything gets yellow stickered in each local supermarket. I can cook full one pot meals from scratch using only oven/pressure cooker/air fryer/hob and slow cooker. I am basically the greatest person with money you will ever meet.

Recession hits and trust me I’ve already planned well in advance what I can do to avoid freezing to death this winter (15 tog duvets). Your IT engineer is hosed

You're on the right track for sure. :)

I've been paranoid about debt my whole life, can't handle it tbh. :shrug:
Can't afford something; don't buy it or start saving for it... never an overdraft or loan or mortgage.

Since i took voluntary redundancy practically two years to the day, barring selling my car and having no internet i'm about as battened down as i'm comfortable being till i get my pension.
No more wasting money just to feel good for a day or two, weird that i'm happier now than then (probably the lack shift work i guess).

piano chimp
Feb 2, 2008

ye



Nextdoor is having a field day today. A couple of my favourite takes:



e: fixed

piano chimp fucked around with this message at 18:44 on Sep 26, 2022

qhat
Jul 6, 2015


The only time I've ever taken on debt is student loan (lol 1.75% max forever) and when I actually have the money somewhere and it's really just a matter of time before I can move it into the right place, so short term. The idea of long term debt makes me ill, it's too limiting for my lifestyle. I can understand why people take on mortgages (because they have kids and need a stable location), but I also can't help but feel that if mortgages weren't a thing, housing would not be in the hundreds of thousands and people wouldn't be sweating when it decreased in value. But what do I know.

keep punching joe
Jan 22, 2006

Die Satan!
We paid 87k for a 3 bed (really it's 2 bed because ones more of a dining room), and large front/back garden. In a fairly nice if a little rundown rural area.

Downside is that it's 60 min commute to Glasgow and if not for homeworking the saving on rent would be wiped out by rail fares. Still at least I don't have to put up with some oval office landlord Kramering into my life at random moments, and extracting money that is better off being saved.

OwlFancier
Aug 22, 2013

I count myself lucky a lot that I never really developed vices, don't drink don't smoke don't gamble don't buy fashion don't like fancy dining don't travel. Apart from a videogame maybe once a month or two the only thing I want is a roof, food, and electricity for the computer, and to live where I live.

I don't know how people manage honestly, so much of my job involves selling people poo poo and it strikes me how little of it I would actually want to buy, but I assume some people do, and I loving hate how much effort goes into trying to convince people to buy things they just don't need.

I dunno, it just feels a lot of the time like most of existence is geared around depriving people of stuff and making them feel insecure so you can sell them back the basic level of contentment that surely everyone should just have by default? Surely that people must have had in abundance for 95% of human history? What could you desire in a village in the 1200s other than for the danes and the lord to gently caress off? Surely the need to consume so much must be impressed upon us from outside?

And it's not like, it's inherently wrong to do that or anything it's just that it must make people so loving vulnerable to develop a dependency on poo poo like that, like where does the money come from? What do you do when it stops? How much of your life do you have to sell away to get it even under ideal circumstances? How easy would it be to take on any of the millions of loving predatory loans they'll offer you to keep you consuming.

Bold claim but I loving hate capitalism.

Ewan
Sep 29, 2008

Ewan is tired of his reputation as a serious Simon. I'm more of a jokester than you people think. My real name isn't even Ewan, that was a joke it's actually MARTIN! LOL fooled you again, it really is Ewan! Look at that monkey with a big nose, Ewan is so random! XD

piano chimp posted:

Nextdoor is having a field day today. A couple of my favourite takes:



e: fixed
Makes a change from "LAST NIGHT AT 10PM MY NEST CAMERA CAUGHT THIS MAN LOOKING SUSPICIOUS WALKING PAST MY HOUSE. PLEASE KEEP SAFE EVERYONE xxxx". (Posts picture of a perfectly normal looking gentleman minding his own business walking past on the pavement that just happens not to be white)

sassassin
Apr 3, 2010

by Azathoth
Parents have been waiting 3 months for the guys who bought their small business a few years ago to come up with the money to buy the land and buildings and finish off the lease no one is happy with. Mortgage all agreed, all that is left is the official valuation, booked for next week.

Can't see it happening now. Was really hoping for a yacht for Christmas (or help to pay down my mortgage when it comes up for renewal next year, whichever's cheaper).

Scientastic
Mar 1, 2010

TRULY scientastic.
🔬🍒


learnincurve posted:

Start of the pandemic, I spoke about what it’s like being on long term benefits and what you had to do to economise, Kind people said to apply to the solidarity fund. I said I wouldn’t because my troubles are constant and consistent. I have never had money so no one has ever given me credit and therefore I have no debts, I can budget and plan, where as it’s the unexpected that will cripple you.

When you look at the big financial picture someone who works in IT earning £32k a year has less money than me. They are - £300k on house, car, credit card, student depts and so on and I am £800 deep in my overdraft. I also have soft skills that you learn through being long term poor, my phone hasn’t been just allowed to roll on to the next contract for example, I know when everything gets yellow stickered in each local supermarket. I can cook full one pot meals from scratch using only oven/pressure cooker/air fryer/hob and slow cooker. I am basically the greatest person with money you will ever meet.

Recession hits and trust me I’ve already planned well in advance what I can do to avoid freezing to death this winter (15 tog duvets). Your IT engineer is hosed

When you were partying, I studied not getting paid.

When you were having premarital sex, I mastered frugality.

While you wasted your days at the gym in pursuit of vanity, I cultivated my inner miser.

And now that the world is on fire and the Tories are at the gate you have the audacity to come to me for help.

Guavanaut
Nov 27, 2009

Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998



Toilet Rascal

piano chimp posted:

Nextdoor is having a field day today. A couple of my favourite takes:



e: fixed
If Starmer was in power he would put all the white people in concentration camps and shoot their alpacas, just like Mao did.

kecske
Feb 28, 2011

it's round, like always

pretty cool for those of us still stuck in potential towering infernos due to cladding that we can't remortgage or fix rates because the mortgageable value is zero until the cladding comes off. love to pay variable tracker rate on a worthless flat I can't get out of.

Rustybear
Nov 16, 2006
what the thunder said

Halisnacks posted:

You’re positioning this as if interest rates are the only thing that have bearing on property values.

The base rate has been <1% since 2009 and property prices have skyrocketed in the 13 years since then. Are you trying to say that an owner-occupier who bought in 2009 hasn’t benefited massively from a low-interest rate environment?

yes, p much. none of that price speculation is productive gain it's just a bubble inflated by very cheap credit. you can't access any of that capital while inside the bubble as you have to live somewhere and if the bubble ever pops then it all vanishes overnight.

it's not particularly controversial to say that the high interest environments of the 70s, 80s, and 90s benefited owner-occupiers as a class much more than the very low rate enviroments of the late 00s and 10s.

it is not a universal law but it holds in aggregate that debtors as a class benefit from high(er) rates and creditors the inverse.

OwlFancier
Aug 22, 2013

I feel like the general acceleration of house prices will have benefited specifically retirees who can then sell their giant inflated priced houses in appealing areas and move to places that are uneconomical for people who need to go to work, and that the contrast between desirable and undesirable areas in that respect is massively amplified into a margin you could lose a 3 bedroom detached and a very comfortable retirement in, by the general bubble.

If the bubble is big enough you don't need to cash out entirely, there is enough room for people to do very well just by moving around a bit.

Brendan Rodgers
Jun 11, 2014




OwlFancier posted:

Transitioning from voodoo economics to druidic economics :britain:

If we purposefully built new Stonehenges via viral flash mobs in the interest of tourism, that would be a druidic policy and it would be more logical than what we are doing now.

OwlFancier
Aug 22, 2013

Also would cause terf twitter to implode the minute they find out there's menhir. Alternatively good name for a stonehenge themed gay bar.

Diet Crack
Jan 15, 2001

OwlFancier posted:

I feel like the general acceleration of house prices will have benefited specifically retirees

Ah, the ol' Boomeround

It's almost as if they rigged the game for themselves!

fuctifino
Jun 11, 2001

https://twitter.com/coldwarsteve/status/1574451329795235841

e: and because it never gets old:
https://twitter.com/David_Cameron/status/595112367358406656

fuctifino fucked around with this message at 19:30 on Sep 26, 2022

forkboy84
Jun 13, 2012

Corgis love bread. And Puro


https://twitter.com/Meat__Hook/status/1574362544344637440?s=20&t=6yuLIRadP1fHtmhhUPZZxA

Guavanaut
Nov 27, 2009

Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998



Toilet Rascal
https://twitter.com/borisjohnson/status/1212679425629859840

fuctifino
Jun 11, 2001


The two should be permanently joined at the hip

OwlFancier
Aug 22, 2013

New SIlent Hill sounding horrific.

fuctifino
Jun 11, 2001

https://twitter.com/ABridgen/status/1574440792483053569

:toot:

The Wicked ZOGA
Jan 27, 2022
Probation
Can't post for 4 days!

fuctifino posted:

The two should be permanently joined at the hip

The two should be permanently joined at the tip

xtothez
Jan 4, 2004


College Slice

Haha 'secure energy supplies'. Isn't fracking basically the fossil fuel equivalent of rummaging through your sofa for spare change while also making your living room uninhabitable

Bobstar
Feb 8, 2006

KartooshFace, you are not responding efficiently!

Pound the Ground for a Pound

kingturnip
Apr 18, 2008

xtothez posted:

Haha 'secure energy supplies'. Isn't fracking basically the fossil fuel equivalent of rummaging through your sofa for spare change while also making your living room uninhabitable

There's nothing uninhabitable about flammable water, and it's unpatriotic to think otherwise.

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Jel Shaker
Apr 19, 2003

the fracking in the us was heavily subsidised and completely unregulated , because it’s basically unprofitable unless you can externalise costs like being able to spray toxic radioactive salt water over roads as a grit substitute

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