UKMT Autumn 2022 - Get thee behind me, seitan.

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > UKMT Autumn 2022 - Get thee behind me, seitan.

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OwlFancier: Aug 22, 2013

Bobby Deluxe posted:

Taking bets this is where the freeports will be announced.

Tees was already announced as that by johnson when he first floated the idea.

# ? Sep 28, 2022 22:54

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# ? May 20, 2024 19:09

sebzilla: Mar 17, 2009; Kid's blasting everything in sight with that new-fangled musket.

Incredible if they ride this out tbh

# ? Sep 28, 2022 23:03

fuctifino: Jun 11, 2001

https://twitter.com/POLITLCSUK/status/1575229502455975936

:toot:

# ? Sep 28, 2022 23:16

Bobby Deluxe: May 9, 2004

Tijuana Bibliophile posted:

That looks like a natural trumpet, among the flexiest instruments

https://twitter.com/JacobDJAtkinson/status/1572449169666703360?t=GQ5Uo8JkEsVzC1WYcJdrLg&s=19

# ? Sep 28, 2022 23:22

Only Kindness: Oct 12, 2016

The benefits understander has logged on (to twitter).

https://twitter.com/LewisDAdams/status/1575236325053452288

# ? Sep 28, 2022 23:24

Hobo: Dec 12, 2007; Forum bum

forkboy84 posted:

I'm saying that with his background Kwarteng knows what he's doing.

I understood this to be your point and I disagree with it - if you think this is an intentional consequence of his plan then the only way it makes sense is a form of bizarre accelerationism. There are far more lasting ways to reduce the state down, namely through cutting spending first, and if the aim was to funnel money to investors in various funds then this is an amazingly poor execution of it.

The thing to remember is that the reduction of the state is not the end goal - he isn�t a sovereign citizen libertarian - it is a means to the end of wealth consolidation, and by that standard he�s basically decided that shooting the goose in the head will result in a golden egg tree growing from the corpse.

# ? Sep 28, 2022 23:33

Guavanaut: Nov 27, 2009; Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998; Toilet Rascal

Tijuana Bibliophile posted:

That looks like a natural trumpet, among the flexiest instruments

It's a coach horn, which is like someone blew a post horn in a looney tunes cartoon so hard that it straightened out.

Not quite sure why the post horn gallop is always played on coach horns instead, even in Germany where they have a tradition of playing post horns as instruments (and putting them on the Deutsche Post flags and logos).

Only Kindness posted:

The benefits understander has logged on (to twitter).

https://twitter.com/LewisDAdams/status/1575236325053452288

I guarantee he's one of these cunts too

Guavanaut posted:

Every time someone suggests it the comments are full of the most outraged Englishmen shouting about how single mothers are popping out kids to get free houses.

This despite the teen conception rate being the lowest ever

and the benefits not being there and the overall birth rate being below replacement

So the answer to

is probably that they're perpetually mad about other people's children that don't even exist.

# ? Sep 28, 2022 23:36

OwlFancier: Aug 22, 2013

The ideal brass instrument is the tromboon, an instrument that combines the bassoon and the trombone and has all the disadvantages of both.

Sounds kind of like being run over by a speeding truck.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4x7xZO4YUE

# ? Sep 28, 2022 23:40

Spangly A: May 14, 2009; God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall

Hobo posted:

I understood this to be your point and I disagree with it - if you think this is an intentional consequence of his plan then the only way it makes sense is a form of bizarre accelerationism. There are far more lasting ways to reduce the state down, namely through cutting spending first, and if the aim was to funnel money to investors in various funds then this is an amazingly poor execution of it.

The thing to remember is that the reduction of the state is not the end goal - he isn�t a sovereign citizen libertarian - it is a means to the end of wealth consolidation, and by that standard he�s basically decided that shooting the goose in the head will result in a golden egg tree growing from the corpse.

His donors placed bets against gilts and GBP after he became chancellor, I don't think anyone is arguing this is the culmination of a decades long ideological project to end the welfare state but that it makes sense because he's leveraging his position for personal gain

;The OBR member and former BoE honcho who was saying "drat we won't be able to afford our revenue-positive healthcare model" is the one doing an ideology

# ? Sep 28, 2022 23:41

Guavanaut: Nov 27, 2009; Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998; Toilet Rascal

OwlFancier posted:

The ideal brass instrument is the tromboon, an instrument that combines the bassoon and the trombone and has all the disadvantages of both.

Is that a brass instrument or a woodwind?

I'd call it a woodwind, because any instrument with a reed is conventionally defined by the reed over the body. But I understand why both groups of players would be keen to assign it to the other.

# ? Sep 28, 2022 23:49

Hobo: Dec 12, 2007; Forum bum

Spangly A posted:

His donors placed bets against gilts and GBP after he became chancellor, I don't think anyone is arguing this is the culmination of a decades long ideological project to end the welfare state but that it makes sense because he's leveraging his position for personal gain

;The OBR member and former BoE honcho who was saying "drat we won't be able to afford our revenue-positive healthcare model" is the one doing an ideology

I mean it�s tens of thousands of pounds in exchange for a permanent reputation as a total gently caress up, if he is doing this move for that small personal gain then we can probably fundraise a bigger amount to get him to stop.

Like he literally could have just done a couple of dinner talks for more money than that.

If you really think his moves are for personal gain then there�s a million other ways he could have done this for more gain. I know there�s a perception that Tories are largely in this for looting the state but the reality is that if you just care about money then the access you need to become a Tory MP, much less a minister, would already get you to a far better paying job. At some level this is an ego/legacy incentive, and fundamentally pretty much every minister across all parties will think that their actions are making the country better, for wildly varied and often deluded definitions of what �better� is.

Hobo fucked around with this message at 23:59 on Sep 28, 2022

# ? Sep 28, 2022 23:53

Spangly A: May 14, 2009; God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall

Hobo posted:

I mean it�s tens of thousands of pounds in exchange for a permanent reputation as a total gently caress up, if he is doing this move for that small personal gain then we can probably fundraise a bigger amount to get him to stop.

Like he literally could have just done a couple of dinner talks for more money than that.

It's a mid six figure salary, for 7 hours a month, for the rest of his life, as soon as he's taken enough of a beating that his resignation is strategically useful. And while you and I see "fuckup", bankers and MPs see "team player". Chris Grayling is never out of work long.

Spangly A fucked around with this message at 23:58 on Sep 28, 2022

# ? Sep 28, 2022 23:56

Dabir: Nov 10, 2012

Also like, our MPs have no sense of scale for bribes. £4k will buy you any backbencher and some ministers

# ? Sep 29, 2022 00:04

Hobo: Dec 12, 2007; Forum bum

Spangly A posted:

It's a mid six figure salary, for 7 hours a month, for the rest of his life, as soon as he's taken enough of a beating that his resignation is strategically useful. And while you and I see "fuckup", bankers and MPs see "team player". Chris Grayling is never out of work long.

What team do you think he�s playing on that the entire City is calling for him to stop, including MPs? And calling for the BoE to do anything counter it? Like I get that often what�s good for the City is bad for the general public, but this is just bad for everyone.

# ? Sep 29, 2022 00:04

OwlFancier: Aug 22, 2013

I think a slight caveat to the idea that you need "access" to be an MP/Minister is somewhat diluted by the fact that the tories have been scraping the bottom of the barrel since cameron left and this is literally the people who were too stupid/worthless to get a shot in the last several rounds of succession.

# ? Sep 29, 2022 00:10

Spangly A: May 14, 2009; God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall

Hobo posted:

What team do you think he�s playing on that the entire City is calling for him to stop, including MPs? And calling for the BoE to do anything counter it? Like I get that often what�s good for the City is bad for the general public, but this is just bad for everyone.

The team of multi billionaire hedge fund owner and donor and former boss of his, Crispen odey, who is openly bragging about it, would be my guess

Gideon Osbourne got up to, what, seven different 6 figure salaries after being chancellor? Kwarteng might look unbelievably cheap by comparison but you've still got people below him like Daniel Kawczynski (no relation) crying to unsympathetic ears about how Putin won't even offer him a Russia today guest spot. Politicians in England are really cheap.

Spangly A fucked around with this message at 00:22 on Sep 29, 2022

# ? Sep 29, 2022 00:15

Hobo: Dec 12, 2007; Forum bum

Spangly A posted:

The team of multi billionaire hedge fund owner and donor and former boss of his, Crispen odey, who is openly bragging about it, would be my guess

I think you�re vastly overestimating the personal gain from the approach he�s taken here against a massive range of options that would involve the usual suspects getting money, as opposed to a hedge fund that knew how big of an idiot he really is and decided to bet on that. All these post government positions require, at the very least one of:

Hiring the person gives prestige
Hiring the person gives access
Hiring the person gives inside knowledge

At the moment he�s going 0/3, with a poor chance of lasting long enough to change that. Being the dude that you can give �10k in order to gently caress up and piss everyone off is not the stunning company investment you might think is automatic with any minister.

Edit: you think he�s going to be Osborne or Grayling - he�s not, he�s going to be Hancock.

Hobo fucked around with this message at 00:26 on Sep 29, 2022

# ? Sep 29, 2022 00:22

Lady Demelza: Dec 29, 2009; Lipstick Apathy

JackChat: they once promised to send me a recipe book for my local food bank and it never arrived. I never mentioned it before because it may not have been Jack's fault. But I wonder if it's a pattern of not following through.

# ? Sep 29, 2022 00:27

Spangly A: May 14, 2009; God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall

Hobo posted:

I think you�re vastly overestimating the personal gain from the approach he�s taken here against a massive range of options that would involve the usual suspects getting money, as opposed to a hedge fund that knew how big of an idiot he really is and decided to bet on that. All these post government positions require, at the very least one of:

Hiring the person gives prestige
Hiring the person gives access
Hiring the person gives inside knowledge

At the moment he�s going 0/3, with a poor chance of lasting long enough to change that. Being the dude that you can give �10k in order to gently caress up and piss everyone off is not the stunning company investment you might think is automatic with any minister.

Im fine if you don't agree but I genuinely do think ministers are that cheap and the ones that do take up bullshit consultancies after sweetheart deals get away with it just fine.

The bit where "does he know what he's doing" is harder is that I think he knows he's loving the pound on purpose, I don't think he is even capable of comprehending the difference between what he's doing and what Ed Davey did.

# ? Sep 29, 2022 00:31

Jaeluni Asjil: Apr 18, 2018; Sorry I thought you were a landlord when I gave you your old avatar!

Just saw this on reddit which gives an overview/explanation of what happened today re pension funds:
ELI5 = "explain like I'm 5"

quote:

Quick ELI5 on why the BOE intervened today and what it has to do with pension funds.
Have seen a lot of questions on the page today as to what provoked the bank of england into today's pretty unprecedented action. As someone who works in the pension fund industry, and having spent most of the last 48 hours working through this, I thought some may find a brief ELI5 helpful.

Background: UK Pension schemes are massive entities. When we talk about them, there are two main types that we care about - both are relevant here. Defined Benefit (or DB, or final salary) schemes - where a company, via a pension scheme, promises employees to pay them a proportion of their salary from retirement until they die. Defined Contribution (or DC) - where you and your employer pay into an account, which you can access when you retire. There is no promise beyond this pot of money.

Today's problem has started with DB schemes - but its a much, much bigger problem.

There are about 4,000 UK private sector pension schemes - and many of these things are massive. They have about 18m people as members, and (as at a month ago) have �1.7tn in assets.

�1.7tn is a truly unfathomable number - we are talking more money than Jeff Bezos could earn in 10 lifetimes.

The problem with DB pension schemes in particular is that:

You don't know how long people are going to live - so paying someone (say) �10k per year, could cost you 400k if they live for 40 years, or 10k if they die within a year of retirement.

UK pension promises are generally linked to inflation - and as the last year has proven, predicting this is hard.

UK regulations and the pensions regulator - broadly speaking - force companies to fund pension schemes by looking at the price of government bonds.

Every three years a pension scheme commissions a valuation, where an actuary estimates how much they think each person needs to be paid - based on life expectancy and inflation expectations. This provides the starting point of your liabilities - how much do you think you will need to pay out. Across the UK, for simplicity lets say this is about �2tn.

They then use the interest rates available on government bonds to work out how much needs to be held today to make the �2tn of future payments. In other words, if rates are 1% and you need to make a payment in 10 years time, you can knock 10% off what you need to hold today, because all you need to do is buy �1.8tn of government bonds (aka gilts), and in 10 years time, the interest payable will mean you will have your �2tn.

In practice, liabilities aren't "neat" like this and payable in one go - some will be payable next week - some in 100 years, but you can do this calculation for every person in the scheme and work out exactly what bonds you need to hold, and therefore how much money each pension scheme needs.

Now in practice, most UK pension schemes haven't gone out and bought UK debt to match every payment. Interest rates might tell us we need to have �1.7tn to pay pensions, but that doesn't mean we need to physically hold �1.7tn of UK bonds to pay.

What most do is split there investments - some will be held in UK government bonds/gilts (50% is a reasonable average), some will be held in corporate bonds, some will be held in stocks and shares. The idea is that if you can return better than the interest rate of 1% - you don't actually need to hold �1.7tn, you need to hold less than that.

What this exposes you to however is a mismatch. What happens if at the same time interest rates fall (now you need to hold closer to the �2tn), and the value of your shares fall. You now have a double whammy - your target is higher, and the assets you hold are worth less.

So what most schemes have done over the past 10 years (and here is the critical point to all of this) - is used something called LDI - or liability driven investment. You can think of this as a 'cake and eat it' asset. It basically says - if interests rates go down, and you need to hold more money - we will pay that extra money to you. If rates go up, you pay extra money to us. This has allowed pension schemes to invest in assets like stocks and shares, whilst insulating themselves against interest rate movements.

However investment managers need to know that pension schemes are good for the money, if interest rates rise (as they have over the last month). They ask schemes to post 'collateral'. Basically you lock money up to make sure that if things go wrong, money is on hand to make it good.

The problem today is that things have moved so fast, that its quickly burnt through the cash that pension schemes have had stashed away to deal with this outcome. So schemes have had to find more collateral - and fast.

The "run on the bank" situation is that the way many schemes have done this is by selling more UK bonds/gilts. UK pension schemes own almost all of the long dated bonds/gilts in the market, so what we've seen is the market flooded with long dated UK bonds/gilts which has sent the price falling (which is the same thing as saying the interest rate has risen).

But the price falling on gilts.... causes rates to rise.... which means that the schemes to need to post more collateral to back the LDI.... so they sell more gilts.....which causes the price to fall... and rates to rise further... and so on.

A horrible mess for the managers and for many schemes. For those without LDI - its all actually excellent news. Interest rates are so high, they need far less money to pay their pension obligations. However years and year of the Pensions Regulator pushing pension schemes towards buying UK debt means this is the exception rather than the rule.

So an absolutely vicious cycle which led to the FT today reporting it all as "a complete poo poo show".

The talk of the whole pension industry going insolvent was overstated - that's not really how you'd expect this to operate.... but there are real problems. But this is why the BOE action is targeted and long dated debt (this is what pension schemes buy) and why its going to be limited in scope (because they need to do just enough to stop the rot and solve the practical issues).

There is lots more going on here in terms of practical challenges... but hopefully this gives a bit of an idea...

The knock on consequence for those of us with DC schemes, is that those within 10 years of retirement usually hold lots of UK debt/Gilts. Soaring interest rates reduces the value of those gilts - which in turn means people are seeing their savings wiped out.

Hope this is helpful!

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/xqkfc1/quick_eli5_on_why_the_boe_intervened_today_and/

# ? Sep 29, 2022 00:46

bump_fn: Apr 12, 2004; _{two of them}

i was on the korean air flight thst clipped the other plane ask me anything

# ? Sep 29, 2022 00:47

Jaeluni Asjil: Apr 18, 2018; Sorry I thought you were a landlord when I gave you your old avatar!

bump_fn posted:

i was on the korean air flight thst clipped the other plane ask me anything

Was it scary? Did you know what happened before you got off?

# ? Sep 29, 2022 00:51

bump_fn: Apr 12, 2004; _{two of them}

Jaeluni Asjil posted:

Was it scary? Did you know what happened before you got off?

i didn�t notice anything at collision so i assume it was on the other side of the plane

it was scary once the plane was surrounded by fire trucks and cops and poo poo and we were still on. at first they told us to leave with just our passports but i was enough in the back that we were told to go back and get all our stuff so i didn�t have to wait for them to unload all my carry one

also i�m flying with my cat which made it extra insane

# ? Sep 29, 2022 00:57

Jaeluni Asjil: Apr 18, 2018; Sorry I thought you were a landlord when I gave you your old avatar!

bump_fn posted:

i didn�t notice anything at collision so i assume it was on the other side of the plane

it was scary once the plane was surrounded by fire trucks and cops and poo poo and we were still on. at first they told us to leave with just our passports but i was enough in the back that we were told to go back and get all our stuff so i didn�t have to wait for them to unload all my carry one

also i�m flying with my cat which made it extra insane

Was puss in the hold or in the cabin?

# ? Sep 29, 2022 00:58

bump_fn: Apr 12, 2004; _{two of them}

Jaeluni Asjil posted:

Was puss in the hold or in the cabin?

cabin thank god otherwise i would have for sure lost it

# ? Sep 29, 2022 01:02

Goatse James Bond: Mar 28, 2010; If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

bump_fn posted:

cabin thank god otherwise i would have for sure lost it

christ

# ? Sep 29, 2022 01:58

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

fuctifino posted:

https://twitter.com/POLITLCSUK/status/1575229502455975936

6th, which is why you can't afford it anymore.

# ? Sep 29, 2022 05:45

Bacon Terrorist: May 7, 2010; to ride eternal, shiny and chrome

THUNDERDOME LOSER 2022

Lady Demelza posted:

JackChat: they once promised to send me a recipe book for my local food bank and it never arrived. I never mentioned it before because it may not have been Jack's fault. But I wonder if it's a pattern of not following through.

I'm afraid that you are not alone in that, at least it was only a gift? She got quite aggressive with her Kickstarter backers when they complained about not receiving theirs.

https://twitter.com/saxena_puru/status/1575309586453536768?s=20

# ? Sep 29, 2022 06:36

Biggus Dickus: May 18, 2005; Roadies know where to focus the spotlight.

Lady Demelza posted:

JackChat: they once promised to send me a recipe book for my local food bank and it never arrived. I never mentioned it before because it may not have been Jack's fault. But I wonder if it's a pattern of not following through.

Anecdotal, but we have a couple of their books and never had a problem other than delays on the first one due to miscalculation of just how much effort was involved. Could be just bad luck on your part.

# ? Sep 29, 2022 06:44

His Divine Shadow: Aug 7, 2000; I'm not a fascist. I'm a priest. Fascists dress up in black and tell people what to do.

fuctifino posted:

https://twitter.com/POLITLCSUK/status/1575229502455975936

Not at this rate.

# ? Sep 29, 2022 07:27

Halisnacks: Jul 18, 2009

Presumably rumblings will start about a rebellion on the �mini� Budget itself? When will it be voted on? Obviously it will pass, but how many Tory rebels would be enough to have some ramifications on the rest of Truss�s agenda?

# ? Sep 29, 2022 08:22

Chinese Gordon: Oct 22, 2008

Truss sounded like her normal, robot lunatic self in the interviews. Refused to admit any mistakes, nothing will be reversed, complete lack of audible empathy for those suffering etc. Can't say as I expected anything else. Bond markets taking it 'well'. If I was a Tory MP I'd be lining up my next do-nothing directorship ASAP.

Like I said, I genuinely think she'll be out by Christmas if nothing changes.

# ? Sep 29, 2022 08:31

smellmycheese: Feb 1, 2016

https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1575387454034640896

# ? Sep 29, 2022 08:33

Gonzo McFee: Jun 19, 2010

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1575087200882102274?s=19

Jesus Christ

# ? Sep 29, 2022 08:36

Chinese Gordon: Oct 22, 2008

Gonzo McFee posted:

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1575087200882102274?s=19

Jesus Christ

Uttering the phrase 'radical centre' should be punishable by death.

Much as I hate, hate, hate what Keith is doing in terms of styling himself The Real, Actual Heir To Blair, I'd still take a Labour government in a loving *heartbeat* over the current band of deranged ideologues. Listening to Truss this morning it is very clear that a *lot* of people are going to properly needlessly suffer until she and her fellow cultists are removed from power.

# ? Sep 29, 2022 08:44

el dingo: Mar 19, 2009; Ogres are like onions

Yeah I was debating internally who I would vote for or if I would bother in the next GE but jesus loving christ

# ? Sep 29, 2022 08:58

Barry Foster: Dec 24, 2007; What is going wrong with that one (face is longer than it should be)

Nothing will ever make me vote for Keir Starmer's Labour.

# ? Sep 29, 2022 09:10

JoylessJester: Sep 13, 2012

Yeah I obviously won't be voting tory, but I've no positive reason to vote labour.

The next Labour government will complete the privatisation of the NHS and the 'soft left' will defend it.

# ? Sep 29, 2022 09:17

Guavanaut: Nov 27, 2009; Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998; Toilet Rascal

I keep trying to look for positive reasons and they keep expending effort to make sure that any of those reasons are snuffed out.

# ? Sep 29, 2022 09:19

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# ? May 20, 2024 19:09

josh04: Oct 19, 2008; "THE FLASH IS THE REASON
TO RACE TO THE THEATRES"
_{This title contains sponsored content.}

josh04 posted:

This should be pretty funny because Truss clearly thinks these will be podunk nowhere journalists bowled over by getting to talk to the PM, when it's even odds that they're decent journalists frozen out of the london clique whose rear end-kissing she apparently considers insufficient.

lol. lmao.

https://twitter.com/dinosofos/status/1575395660018368514

# ? Sep 29, 2022 09:21

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > UKMT Autumn 2022 - Get thee behind me, seitan.

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