|
Given the level of competence Russian forces have displayed elsewhere, I find it entirely believable that the russian pilot simply fat-fingered the missile trigger unintentionally. If the missile was actually locked onto the Rivet joint aircraft, and only missed due to evasive action on the part of the brits, I feel like the UK would have used language a lot stronger than 'released a missile in the vicinity of' e: like 'recklessly released a missile in the general direction of'
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 14:28
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 23, 2024 17:10 |
|
|
It's an old plane. Sometimes those things happen, have some sympathy, you may be there yourself one day. Anyway: https://mobile.twitter.com/ABarbashin/status/1583080281011277824
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 14:30
|
|
|
OddObserver posted:It's an old plane. Sometimes those things happen, have some sympathy, you may be there yourself one day. (I am gonna guess there is a difference in how veteran Wagner and guy they picked up from jail are used).
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 14:31
|
|
|
OddObserver posted:(I am gonna guess there is a difference in how veteran Wagner and guy they picked up from jail are used). Edit: that was supposed to be edit, not quote....
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 14:31
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1583050042784460800
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 14:53
|
|
|
Slashrat posted:Given the level of competence Russian forces have displayed elsewhere, I find it entirely believable that the russian pilot simply fat-fingered the missile trigger unintentionally. If the missile was actually locked onto the Rivet joint aircraft, and only missed due to evasive action on the part of the brits, I feel like the UK would have used language a lot stronger than 'released a missile in the vicinity of' Fat fingering is pretty unlikely. There are all sorts of safety features that even a decades old Soviet fighter would have. Things like a master arm switch is almost certainly present in the cockpit and would have to be switched on to fire. The Guardian article says the missile was beyond visual range. Technical malfunction is probably the right answer.
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 14:55
|
|
|
He's already issued a very convincing explanation. 'I don't remember saying that, it must have been some kind of fabrication. Maybe it was, maybe it wasn't. I don't remember, unfortunately. It was a long time ago. I got a bad brain after the covid.'
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 14:55
|
|
|
Paladinus posted:He's already issued a very convincing explanation. While the bolded part may be true, he'll probably get thrown out of a window anyway 
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 15:02
|
|
|
Wibla posted:While the bolded part may be true, he'll probably get thrown out of a window anyway Nah, he'll be fine. More likely is he'll get invited to more shows now to parrot the official line. The official stance, by the way, is if UN tries to investigate the drones, Russia stops paying UN fees, because how dare you not to trust us the drones are Russian, they even have Cyrillic letters on them, they can't be Iranian!
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 15:06
|
|
|
I'm starting to suspect Ukraine and Russia has made a deal for Russia to evacuate the West bank of the Dnipro and the information blackout is part of it. Russia may wish to evacuate without being blasted by their nationalists during the process and just make the announcement after the fact. Ukraine may have acquiesced to that to ensure the evacuation happens and they don't have to expend men and material to destroy the Russian forces and avoid the civilian casualties and destruction a siege of Kherson would entail. I think the blackout is improbably effective if there is an actual offensive taking place and there's some Twitter chatter that indicates Russia is in the process of leaving. https://twitter.com/TallbarFIN/status/1582988102238277633?t=w5W6noWm8kTUe8X2_DnTag&s=19 https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1583046458474778626?t=UZTmLABfBWsrwullulHYBQ&s=19 https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1583057417046138880?t=zvccRpeLJ7ppeSs3TbDqhQ&s=19 Just idle speculation of course.
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 15:25
|
|
|
Young Freud posted:I'm going to wager a guess and say the Rivet Joint's international airspace was the Black Sea. It's a signals intelligence aircraft, the type of intelligence gathering that would uncover Russian troop movements, logistics, locations of officers, etc. They have been making missions over the Black Sea and Poland basically since the war started, both River Joint and Combat Sent platforms. The fact that a missile was fired upon one of them is frankly insane of Russia and I don't buy the "malfunction" story one bit. It is going to be real interesting to see what happens now that they will have fighter escort. I assume the RAF will have Eurofighters and the USAF will have F-16s likely. The only thing that makes any sort of sense is that Russia is looking to try and goad NATO into engaging them. It's a bad idea but it is all I got.
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 15:26
|
|
|
Menschsein posted:Russian airforce technology has sure taken a beating from the sanctions: I'm confused as to why people are speculating why the phrasing of this means a missile was fired? Dropping of a missile from a wing pylon would be described as a weapon release. The phrasing here is clear unless other information points to an actual ignition of the rocket motor. The point being made is that the Russian air force is expected to be a professional fighting force and losing weapons of your wings is third world incompetence. However, this is nothing new considering the current state of Russian forces.
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 15:42
|
|
|
Dunite posted:I'm confused as to why people are speculating why the phrasing of this means a missile was fired? It's like "officer involved shooting" in lieu of "cop merked some rando for breathing wrong"--it's to deliberately obfuscate or remove agency from the offending party by using the passive voice.
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 15:55
|
|
|
Dunite posted:However, this is nothing new considering the current state of Russian forces. About 70 years ago the US airforce released a nuke in South Carolina. Mistakes and malfunctions happen.
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 15:58
|
|
|
Dunite posted:Dropping of a missile from a wing pylon would be described as a weapon release. "Weapon release" is how the BBC describes it. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-63327999 quote:Russian jet released missile near RAF aircraft over Black Sea
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 15:59
|
|
|
OAquinas posted:It's like "officer involved shooting" in lieu of "cop merked some rando for breathing wrong"--it's to deliberately obfuscate or remove agency from the offending party by using the passive voice. What's the UK MOD's incentive to obfuscate here?
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 16:00
|
|
|
Djarum posted:They have been making missions over the Black Sea and Poland basically since the war started, both River Joint and Combat Sent platforms. Why are you so certain that a missile was fired upon the RAF aircraft? The British response and the language all seems to point to a weapon either being released off the rails (ie dropped) or dumb fired. Not that the British are above dumb moves, after all they just had a lettuce outlast a PM.
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 16:03
|
|
|
To me, it looked like the Defense Secretary almost said "fired a missile" at 0:25 mark, but corrected it to "released" instead. https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1583060188168622080
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 16:17
|
|
|
Edit: Oh lol the incident was on 29 September not today. That changes things. I assumed it was today, which given all the political chaos in the UK, made it more likely to be a deliberate Russian attempt to cause an incident to destabilise things (actively firing near it, not necessarily trying to shoot it down). Much less sure about that now. Tigey fucked around with this message at 17:01 on Oct 20, 2022 |
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 16:56
|
|
|
Mechanical equipment fails at times. Mechanical equipment with poor maintenance records are especially at risk of failure. It really can be just that.
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 17:33
|
|
|
Yeah reading between the lines it really seems like they were flying along and the missile just dropped off.
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 17:47
|
|
|
SourKraut posted:Mechanical equipment fails at times. Mechanical equipment with poor maintenance records are especially at risk of failure. Most things in weapons are designed to mechanically jam in failure conditions rather than just fall off. Usually there's some special jettison mode if you really wanted to get rid of something which can involve squibs going off to break those mechanical linkages. But then again, it's the Russians so who knows.
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 17:49
|
|
|
I feel like constantly calling a rivet joint ‘civilian style’ and unarmed is disingenuous at best. It’s a pretty hefty military asset.
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 17:51
|
|
|
I kinda doubt that, if a missile just fell off the rail how would British even detect that? They wouldn't bring that up as an issue. It would effectively just be a very expensive rock. Also I think it's very unlikely for a missile to just "fall off" an aircraft rail and even less likely that it would then ignite. Seems more likely intentional to spook the British recon aircraft or an unintentional firing by the pilot. TK-42-1 posted:I feel like constantly calling a rivet joint ‘civilian style’ and unarmed is disingenuous at best. It’s a pretty hefty military asset. Right, it's a reconnaissance aircraft. Given Russia's long history of aggressively spooking western aircraft that come close my guess is this was a similar situation and a pilot intentionally/unintentionally fired. Popete fucked around with this message at 17:53 on Oct 20, 2022 |
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 17:51
|
|
|
^^^ "Released" could be fired as well. If a missile just fell off, would anyone even notice it unless the plane like right in front of them?
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 17:51
|
|
|
WarpedLichen posted:Most things in weapons are designed to mechanically jam in failure conditions rather than just fall off. Usually there's some special jettison mode if you really wanted to get rid of something which can involve squibs going off to break those mechanical linkages. If the missile wasn't activated, then it probably hit the ground like a brick and went to pieces.
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 17:56
|
|
|
mobby_6kl posted:^^^ Maybe if it was dropped near a spy plane full of sensors?
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 17:56
|
|
|
Putin "visiting" a "military base" with Shoigu - I think today? https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1583120888278355972?s=20&t=UCdOhEPF_sCfyOm2F-JeJA Edit: apparently he tried out a gun https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1583130865349332992?s=20&t=UCdOhEPF_sCfyOm2F-JeJA
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 17:58
|
|
|
Tamba posted:Maybe if it was dropped near a spy plane full of sensors? That's not what those spy planes are built to look for, detecting a relatively small missile dropping off an airplane would really only be feasible by camera/eyeball I would think. Again if a missile just fell off a rail (which seems very unlikely in the first place, these things are built to withstand takeoff/landing) why would the British even bring this up?
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 17:59
|
|
|
More from his visit at the below account - not sure if it's the official Kremlinpool twitter though. And I just noticed that the guy guiding him is in VDV uniform I hope this translation is right because if it is it's so loving pointed"Putin was shown the equipment of the mobilized, including shoes. "The main thing is that it should exist," the President noted." https://twitter.com/Kremlinpool_RIA/status/1583123786689191936?s=20&t=UCdOhEPF_sCfyOm2F-JeJA "Putin last week instructed the Security Council of the Russian Federation to check how the mobilized are being prepared. But still came to see in person. Shoigu was nearby. For the first time since the beginning of the special operation, the President visited the training ground. Before that, Medvedev and Sobyanin came to look at the conditions of preparation." https://twitter.com/Kremlinpool_RIA/status/1583123786689191936?s=20&t=UCdOhEPF_sCfyOm2F-JeJA
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 18:05
|
|
|
In general, in the military world, the term released generally involves the weapon being activated. The Guardian and the BBC both have articles in which the verbiage being used is that it was released beyond visual range and that the spy jet promptly retreated. This means that it is unlikely the weapon just fell off. If it just fell off, it would be unlikely that it was detected from beyond visual range or that the spy place would feel threatened just seeing an object on radar fall to the surface. It almost certainly meant the missile was launched. They likely refrained from using the term fired since it carries an aggressive connotation when they have already determined that the spy plane wasn't targeted and the missile never got close to the plane.
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 18:07
|
|
|
Dick Ripple posted:Popular Front just dropped an episode about the Russian far right militias in Ukraine, https://www.popularfront.co/podcast. I knew they existed, but was not familiar with the names and individuals involved. Their upbringing in the Soviet times well as all the names that are frequently mentioned in this forum and their history was quite the interesting and suprising part. I'm halfway through the podcast, and it's really amazing, definitely a required source for anyone interested in the topic.
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 18:12
|
|
|
Owling Howl posted:About 70 years ago the US airforce released a nuke in South Carolina. Mistakes and malfunctions happen. One in South Carolina and one in the ocean near the South Carolina and Georgia. The first in South Carolina was jettisoned, but did not have a plutonium core—so it wasn’t actually armed—and it crashed into a bunch of houses. There is a fully armed hydrogen bomb from the second incident buried in the mud somewhere in the ocean near the mouth of the Savannah River near the Georgia/South Carolina border that has never been located. It was jettisoned after a midair collision in 1958. In 1957 a B-47 with a hydrogen bomb disappeared over the Mediterranean. The crash site and weapon were never located. In 1961 a B-52 broke up mid-flight over Goldsboro, North Carolina and 2x 3 megaton bombs fell to the ground. In that case one of them had its trigger in the fully armed and ready to be deployed setting and nearly detonated. In 1965 a plane loaded with a hydrogen weapon fell off an aircraft carrier in the Philippine Sea… its still at the bottom of the ocean. There are also two American nuclear submarines (USS Thresher and USS Scorpion) that sank in deep water that had nuclear torpedos that are still at the bottom of the ocean. The short of it is, you’re right. There have been a lot of “Broken Arrow” incidents just involving the US since 1945. ZombieLenin fucked around with this message at 20:03 on Oct 20, 2022 |
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 18:18
|
|
|
MikeC posted:In general, in the military world, the term released generally involves the weapon being activated. The Guardian and the BBC both have articles in which the verbiage being used is that it was released beyond visual range and that the spy jet promptly retreated. Beat me to it. At least in British mil terms, and I assume other countries use the word in the same way, a “weapon release” means the weapon was fired. I’m not sure if it’s a lawyer-like term to not apportion wether it was deliberate or not. It specifically doesn’t differentiate between the weapon being fired deliberately or accidentally.
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 18:21
|
|
|
ZombieLenin posted:One in South Carolina and one in the ocean near the South Carolina and Georgia. They also dirty bombed region around Thule airbase in 1968, when B-52 crashed. The safety features prevented actual activation but the conventional explosives inside the nukes detonated spreading the radioactive materials all over ice sheet.
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 18:26
|
|
|
MikeC posted:In general, in the military world, the term released generally involves the weapon being activated. The Guardian and the BBC both have articles in which the verbiage being used is that it was released beyond visual range and that the spy jet promptly retreated. Exactly. Also if it "just fell off" you wouldn't have the need to have fighter escort going forward. Also the River Joint has some of the most sophisticated defensive measures on any airframe so even if it was targeted there is little chance for the missile to actually hit it. There is always a chance that it was a mistake upon the Russians and they reached out to make sure that they don't start a shooting war with NATO over it. Which the way it has been treated certainly makes it sound that way, but the UK is going to make sure Russia is aware they screw around again they will have return fire immediately.
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 18:29
|
|
|
Der Kyhe posted:They also dirty bombed region around Thule airbase in 1968, when B-52 crashed. The safety features prevented actual activation but the conventional explosives inside the nukes detonated spreading the radioactive materials all over ice sheet. You wouldn't know about any of this if you actually visit the place, though. Or live there - as I did for a while, until I by chance learned I was 500 metres from one of the explosion sites. The one that isn't still fenced off with radiation warning signs after over 50 years. There's actually a housing development there now - one which was mysteriously abandoned for no doubt entirely coincidental reasons. (Spain is still very, very unhappy with any mention of the incident, because it's now a tourist area. Other people who lived even closer had never heard anything about it.) Small Strange Bird fucked around with this message at 18:59 on Oct 20, 2022 |
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 18:57
|
|
|
From the VFW's Ukraine thread:CommieGIR posted:https://twitter.com/myroslavapetsa/status/1583155790470184961?s=20&t=xyN4Ce-f4Nud33TfYqPTrg So Zelenskyy confirms destruction of the dam would destroy Crimea's water supply. I hope this was just Putin covering his bases by giving himself the option, but depending on where the frontline in Kherson is right now, his window for blowing the dam is probably closing rapidly. And if he does, he's saying he's willing to give up Crimea to burn Ukraine, which is... something...
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 20:01
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1583160413642014738?s=20&t=SiqzXpEhcrHaVPE8WogV_Q
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 20:02
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 23, 2024 17:10 |
|
|
Shes Not Impressed posted:https://twitter.com/AP/status/1583160413642014738?s=20&t=SiqzXpEhcrHaVPE8WogV_Q Imagine being an Iranian drone specialist, and you get deployed to Eastern Europe in November. Under the care of the Russian military.
|
|
#
?
Oct 20, 2022 20:08
|
|