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Sucrose posted:I think it shows conclusively why bigger and stronger countries don’t just gobble up much smaller and weaker neighboring countries. Because wars are to a large degree about how engaged the population is in them, and nothing motivates people to fight like the threat of their country being annexed and culture wiped out. A country has to have some massive advantages over the locals in order to take and permanently hold territory where the populace really really really doesn’t want them there. An ruling power has to try and build legitimacy among the people it rules, and a sovereign state taking territory from another sovereign state has zero legitimacy. It would be a tall order even if the populace started out with a highly unfavorable opinion of their current government and a positive view of the annexer’s government. It's absolutely possible to win total control of conquered territory. Doing so just requires genocide.
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Oct 26, 2022 01:53
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Sucrose posted:I think it shows conclusively why bigger and stronger countries don’t just gobble up much smaller and weaker neighboring countries. Because wars are to a large degree about how engaged the population is in them, and nothing motivates people to fight like the threat of their country being annexed and culture wiped out. A country has to have some massive advantages over the locals in order to take and permanently hold territory where the populace really really really doesn’t want them there. An ruling power has to try and build legitimacy among the people it rules, and a sovereign state taking territory from another sovereign state has zero legitimacy. It would be a tall order even if the populace started out with a highly unfavorable opinion of their current government and a positive view of the annexer’s government. See also: the US in Afghanistan/Iraq. Even with another order of magnitude more firepower than Russia, against a country with an order of magnitude less firepower than Ukraine, it's a total poo poo show unless you commit yourself to full-on genocide. Which is what I really don't understand. How could Russia look at the US performance in Afghanistan and think "SMO in Ukraine will definitely outperform that"
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Oct 26, 2022 02:02
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The US politicians who made a stupid statement blinked, quickly. https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/25/house-progressives-russia-diplomacy-00063338 "House progressives retract Russia-diplomacy letter amid Dem firestorm" So thankfully, that should be past us (didn't see anyone else post it).
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Oct 26, 2022 02:11
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Turds in magma posted:See also: the US in Afghanistan/Iraq. Even with another order of magnitude more firepower than Russia, against a country with an order of magnitude less firepower than Ukraine, it's a total poo poo show unless you commit yourself to full-on genocide. Because they believe themselves capable of genocide (or at least capable of enough atrocity that near pacification like in Chechnya is possible). I'd not be surprised if the Russian read on Afghanistan was the US didn't go hard enough (which kind of ignores their own experience of Afghanistan) fez_machine fucked around with this message at 02:40 on Oct 26, 2022 |
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Oct 26, 2022 02:27
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Turds in magma posted:See also: the US in Afghanistan/Iraq. Even with another order of magnitude more firepower than Russia, against a country with an order of magnitude less firepower than Ukraine, it's a total poo poo show unless you commit yourself to full-on genocide. Exactly that, the individual ultimately going ahead with this invasion was completely convinced they could genocide/warcrime/police state their way to full control of the area
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Oct 26, 2022 02:38
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Kavros posted:Exactly that, the individual ultimately going ahead with this invasion was completely convinced they could genocide/warcrime/police state their way to full control of the area Which isn't a completely irrational thing to believe for Russian leadership. Russian democracy was after all successfully strangled in part through assasinations and Chechnya was successfully pacified.
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Oct 26, 2022 03:57
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Kalit posted:It wasn’t a rogue staffer. Otherwise, Jayapal wouldn’t have issued a clarifying statement yesterday after the letter was released quote:Promulgating US politics derail. User loses posting privileges for 6 hours Herstory Begins Now posted:Am I missing something because the direct politics of american support for Ukraine seems incredibly in the purview of this thread called "War in Ukraine"? particularly while it's still a developing story cinci zoo sniper posted:You're missing several posts on the last page that have nothing at all to do with the developing story, which thought of ants and died anyway.  (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) Kalit fucked around with this message at 04:24 on Oct 26, 2022 |
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Oct 26, 2022 04:20
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Icehawk posted:The Phase 3 Hawk system, a major update released in 1989 and what they would be getting, is actually still good. Spain is already sending 4 Phase 3 launchers to Ukraine and Sweden and Romania and bunch of other western allied countries still use the system as well. Honestly US should have offered these systems much sooner since they are just sitting on them. some of the reporting makes it seem like the launchers have been in storage for too long, and perhaps undermaintained, to the point that the military is not sure that any of the launchers can actually be made ready. the plan being floated is actually to just send missiles for use by the spanish supplied launchers, i guess because they have more confidence in the conditions of the missiles
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Oct 26, 2022 06:11
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fez_machine posted:Because they believe themselves capable of genocide (or at least capable of enough atrocity that near pacification like in Chechnya is possible). Maybe they thought they couldn’t win in Afghanistan, but can win in Ukraine because Ukraine is…..flatter? Owling Howl posted:Which isn't a completely irrational thing to believe for Russian leadership. Russian democracy was after all successfully strangled in part through assasinations and Chechnya was successfully pacified. Chechnya also has a population of less than one and a half million people. Sucrose fucked around with this message at 06:16 on Oct 26, 2022 |
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Oct 26, 2022 06:14
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Kalit posted:Sounds like the probe of my post was rightly justified since it had nothing at all to do with the developing story involving this war. Next time I'll try to only post comments about developing stories that have occurred within the last 4 hours or whatever your criteria is Aawww. Did the mean moderator hurt poor babby's fee-fees? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Oct 26, 2022 06:17
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:It's absolutely possible to win total control of conquered territory. There s always relocation. Like when the CZAR sent a bunch of polish Catholics waay out east.
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Oct 26, 2022 06:18
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Freudian slippers posted:Aawww. Did the mean moderator hurt poor babby's fee-fees? wow u are real good at poo poo doo doo posting. Thank you for your contributions. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Oct 26, 2022 06:33
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In living memory Russia maintained an empire consisting of all of Eastern Europe, it's absolutely possible for a modern state to do this with measures short of genocide as long as you have a group of collaboraters willing to run the place, spend the subsidies necessary to maintain their police state, and are willing to roll in tanks now and again to make the price of dissent clear.
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Oct 26, 2022 06:40
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And yet they couldn't help themselves from genociding. A little bit, as a treat.
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Oct 26, 2022 07:11
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Genocide has been a key part of the Soviet playbook since the beginning though? And the Muscovite one before that
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Oct 26, 2022 07:42
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Alchenar posted:In living memory Russia maintained an empire consisting of all of Eastern Europe, it's absolutely possible for a modern state to do this with measures short of genocide as long as you have a group of collaboraters willing to run the place, spend the subsidies necessary to maintain their police state, and are willing to roll in tanks now and again to make the price of dissent clear. I mean there was plenty of atrocity and mass death to go around shortly before and during those years of domination of Eastern Europe. fez_machine fucked around with this message at 08:47 on Oct 26, 2022 |
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Oct 26, 2022 08:38
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Not just that, spending 10-20% of your GDP on a military so you can keep the whole thing together is unsustainable if said military starts to look a bit like a paper tiger. You just encourage uprisings between people wondering why their lives aren’t getting better and people wanting to shake off their oppressors.
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Oct 26, 2022 09:04
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Owling Howl posted:Probably a car bomb in Mellitipol. What are we calling it - Insurgents? Rebels? Freedom fighters? I suppose the label doesn't matter that much. Damage looks to be minimal, windows & paneling destroyed with surface scorching... would not have wanted to be in the car when it went off though. 
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Oct 26, 2022 09:14
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WarpedLichen posted:I don't think the letter being from June/July makes it any less dumb. The lack of content or meaningful call to action is what makes it dumb. That it got picked up by the media closer to the election as a political weapon is just taking advantage of its inherent dumbness. Never think this. Economists are wrong far more than they are right.
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Oct 26, 2022 09:48
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I think that the Russian defense apparatus very much bought in to their own hype about Being Greeted as Liberators. It’s the only way the whole thing could have remotely worked given the forces at their disposal. They did the classic dictatorship military dance of working back from the answer, found a path to that answer that was technically viable, and reassured everyone that it would go down that way until they probably believed it themselves.
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Oct 26, 2022 09:48
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:I think that the Russian defense apparatus very much bought in to their own hype about Being Greeted as Liberators. It’s the only way the whole thing could have remotely worked given the forces at their disposal. They did the classic dictatorship military dance of working back from the answer, found a path to that answer that was technically viable, and reassured everyone that it would go down that way until they probably believed it themselves. Definitely, everything points to the plan being doing a "wish.com shock and awe", Zelensky running, and everyone welcoming the Dear Leader. There was no Plan B.
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Oct 26, 2022 09:53
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mobby_6kl posted:Definitely, everything points to the plan being doing a "wish.com shock and awe", Zelensky running, and everyone welcoming the Dear Leader. There was no Plan B. They reviewed events in 2014 and assumed it would work out like in Crimea and for some reason decided the fighting in Donbas was some kind of fluke.
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Oct 26, 2022 10:11
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notwithoutmyanus posted:The US politicians who made a stupid statement blinked, quickly. https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/25/house-progressives-russia-diplomacy-00063338 You may find it useful to check the immediately preceding page.
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Oct 26, 2022 10:27
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:I think that the Russian defense apparatus very much bought in to their own hype about Being Greeted as Liberators. It’s the only way the whole thing could have remotely worked given the forces at their disposal. They did the classic dictatorship military dance of working back from the answer, found a path to that answer that was technically viable, and reassured everyone that it would go down that way until they probably believed it themselves. I read an interesting perspective near the beginning of the invasion that posited that Putin (and Russian leadership as a whole) just fundamentally did not consider Ukraine to be an independent country with its own national identity. Instead they believed that it was just a puppet state controlled by the West (in the same way that Russia seeks to control its neighbours), and that in the invasion they could just replace one puppet government with another while a largely uncaring populace would just keep on with business as usual.
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Oct 26, 2022 10:33
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Perestroika posted:I read an interesting perspective near the beginning of the invasion that posited that Putin (and Russian leadership as a whole) just fundamentally did not consider Ukraine to be an independent country with its own national identity. Instead they believed that it was just a puppet state controlled by the West (in the same way that Russia seeks to control its neighbours), and that in the invasion they could just replace one puppet government with another while a largely uncaring populace would just keep on with business as usual. It would make some sense. Putin’s regime has focused on creating an uncaring populace, and entities tend to project themselves on to others.
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Oct 26, 2022 10:37
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DJ_Mindboggler posted:"Partisan" seems like the right label, it's what I instantly thought. "Rebel" doesn't really make sense given that their not fighting to restore a state/depose a regime, but in support of one. "Insurgent" isn't technically wrong, but is too pejorative unless you're a Russian TV anchor. Insurgent doesn't make too much sense to me either, unless you also consider paratroopers dropped behind enemy lines to also be "insurgents". At least to my ears, to be an insurgent or a guerrilla you need to be active in a country that is entirely / almost entirely under the control of the opposing forces. That also works for "rebel", but "rebel" also makes sense to me in a civil war situation that has front lines, regardless of whether the rebel is on either side of them e.g. the current Tigrayan rebellion. Partisan makes sense, as I'm sure the people setting off car bombs in Melitopol are trained professionals with Ukrainian military or militia affiliations. If the war drags out for years and the front lines stabilize, I guess maybe eventually it would move more into insurgency. Someone from Kyiv working for the Ukrainian military who sabotages the rail lines in Simferopol doesn't sound like either a rebel nor an insurgent to me though. Thinking about it, to me the word kind of depends on affiliation and context; if some grandmother from Mariupol gets a gun and shoots the Russian governor, I guess I'd consider her more of an insurgent, but if some paratrooper sneaks behind enemy lines and shoots him, that seems more like special forces operations, while if some undercover policeman from Mariupol does it, that sounds more like partisan activity. I don't think they're interchangeable terms, like how "freedom fighter" and "terrorist" are matters of perspective.
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Oct 26, 2022 10:43
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Def Mon on why Ukraine needs ATACMS apparently the Russians supply Kherson through Warehouses in Myrne, just out of reach for HIMARS. If the US gave Ukraine ATACMS, would they first have to announce it? Or the Russians would find out when everything in what they thought to be a safe range starts having smoking accidents? https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1583771154749087746 Unrolled: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1583771154749087746.html
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Oct 26, 2022 10:43
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Sucrose posted:Chechnya also has a population of less than one and a half million people.
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Oct 26, 2022 10:46
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mrfart posted:If the US gave Ukraine ATACMS, would they first have to announce it? Or the Russians would find out when everything in what they thought to be a safe range starts having smoking accidents? Why would they? All warfare is deception. Russia knows the US is throwing literal tons of equipment at Ukraine for their war effort, the possibility of ATACMS is something Russia needs to account for.
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Oct 26, 2022 11:32
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Rorac posted:Why would they? All warfare is deception. Russia knows the US is throwing literal tons of equipment at Ukraine for their war effort, the possibility of ATACMS is something Russia needs to account for. In the past the US publicly announced in advance what exactly was being deliverer. Like we've been talking about NASMS coming soon for weeks now. I don't know why, russia should find it out when their poo poo starts blowing up.
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Oct 26, 2022 11:35
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Morrow posted:A little derail, but there's a convincing argument that while it's good for the US financially, it hurts the broader economy because the dollar is going to be artificially strong and increase the cost of imports. Artificial strength of the dollar should make imports cheaper, because you buy them in the lower value local currency, and sell them in strong dollars, making your cost basis lower and both your own hand inventory and cash more valuable. Most current real inflation is driven by a demand inversion in supply of shipping capacity and general market concentration allowing increased profit taking. Those account for about 50% of consumer facing inflation each. Middle men are making a killing.
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Oct 26, 2022 12:15
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Really really good investigation of Russia using Belarusian hospitals to treat wounded Russian soldiers - https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2022/10/europe/belarus-hospitals-russian-soldiers-ukraine/ https://twitter.com/elizamackintosh/status/1585046091682103298?t=1fEUBApptMJeOczA3IzffA&s=19 https://twitter.com/elizamackintosh/status/1585046717829091328?t=qtJb0KkaRaIR7W2DeA9axg&s=19 https://twitter.com/elizamackintosh/status/1585049487881347072?t=j-8Zro489ynTvsbmGKA6Jg&s=19 https://twitter.com/elizamackintosh/status/1585176382493327361?t=SDdBbFyr8R9dd7K5qWsHlA&s=19 Confirms that some Russian soldiers did need radiation treatment after operating near Chernobyl, among other things. It ends noting that the doctor who fled had been told to sign up with his local conscription office.
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Oct 26, 2022 12:18
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It seems kind of dramatic to say that Belarusian hospitals are treating Russian military injuries means they’re being more active in the war. Injured Ukrainian military people are also being treated in hospitals in NATO countries, https://www.kyivpost.com/russias-war/injured-ukrainian-soldiers-arrive-for-treatment-in-poland.html So I don’t really see what’s exceptional about Belarus treating RUF guys. The radiation sickness treatment is interesting but overall it seems like NATO countries are doing exactly that, and a hell of a lot more, for Ukraine.
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Oct 26, 2022 12:23
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The CNN article of the above tweets.
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Oct 26, 2022 12:26
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KitConstantine posted:Really really good investigation of Russia using Belarusian hospitals to treat wounded Russian soldiers - https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2022/10/europe/belarus-hospitals-russian-soldiers-ukraine/ That's a really good article and it's kind of wild because, in retrospect, a lot of the rumors about just how full Belarusian hospitals were with Russian service members was a lot truer than I think most people dared to believe early on. It took months for the full scope of the mauling that Russia took in the first weeks of the war to really sink in and be comprehended. Sure there were rumors of entire units getting wiped out and the sheer quantity of wreckage and the footage of traffic jams of ambulances in Belarus leaving train depots made it clear that some pretty extreme stuff was happening, but idk I always took any wild-seeming claims of extremely heavy russian casualties with a huge grain of salt because those numbers always get inflated. Except when they weren't and it actually was that bad.
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Oct 26, 2022 12:38
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Saladman posted:It seems kind of dramatic to say that Belarusian hospitals are treating Russian military injuries means they’re being more active in the war. Injured Ukrainian military people are also being treated in hospitals in NATO countries, https://www.kyivpost.com/russias-war/injured-ukrainian-soldiers-arrive-for-treatment-in-poland.html I would recommend reading the article. It not just about how Russian soldiers were being treated in Belarus. Doctors were made to sign NDAs, told to kick Belarusian patients out to make room for Russian Soldiers, and the doctor interviewed for the piece was imprisoned for more than a month on "corruption" charges before being released and told to register at his conscription office. I linked the piece itself right before the tweet summary from one of the authors.
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Oct 26, 2022 12:39
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mobby_6kl posted:In the past the US publicly announced in advance what exactly was being deliverer. Like we've been talking about NASMS coming soon for weeks now. I don't know why, russia should find it out when their poo poo starts blowing up. I think US didn't preannounce HARM. Also thinking that Ukrainians are incapable of independent thought is not a new thing for Russians with Putinism and is in no way limited to government's supporters.
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Oct 26, 2022 12:46
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mobby_6kl posted:In the past the US publicly announced in advance what exactly was being deliverer. Like we've been talking about NASMS coming soon for weeks now. I don't know why, russia should find it out when their poo poo starts blowing up. Because there's no real reason not to and the US wants to make it abundantly clear that it is Ukrainian troops doing the shooting. Most of the sort of things you'd want to target with those missiles aren't the sort of things that you can easily hide away from them, and Russia scrambling to move around the things they can move is kind of accomplishing the sort of disruption you'd want. In contrast HARMs just kind of appeared one day. That's because there very much was a reason to keep them a surprise: if the Russians had known the missiles were in play they wouldn't leave their radar on 24/7 and the HARMs would be significantly less able to damage their air defense. But even that was pretty shortly follow by some photos and video of the missiles mounted to UAF aircraft.
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Oct 26, 2022 12:46
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I recommend this podcast from Mark Galeotti for people who like's listening to them In Moscow's Shadow I read a few of Mark Galeotti's books before, and he knows a shitton about Russia. The podcast is mostly focusing on the high-level strategy of Russia(Putin), and everything that goes along with it. He has a great knowledge of the Russian bureaucracy, the inner workings of Russia and russians in general. For me at least it gives me a better insight on the difference between what Russia says, what they do, and how it impacts everything.
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Oct 26, 2022 12:56
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Saladman posted:It seems kind of dramatic to say that Belarusian hospitals are treating Russian military injuries means they’re being more active in the war. Injured Ukrainian military people are also being treated in hospitals in NATO countries, https://www.kyivpost.com/russias-war/injured-ukrainian-soldiers-arrive-for-treatment-in-poland.html Can't be mad at doctors for giving medical treatment to people who need it.
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Oct 26, 2022 13:13
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