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The Liz Truss bit is in reference to this https://uk.news.yahoo.com/audience-liz-truss-ready-press-nuclear-button-unleash-global-annihilation-103552126.html Clearly, a super real threat. E: prior to this, Russian media invented whole cloth a quote by Boris Johnson about the UK possibly using nuclear weapons on Russia in retaliation. https://ru.rebaltica.lv/archives/4074 Paladinus fucked around with this message at 16:52 on Oct 27, 2022 |
# ? Oct 27, 2022 16:45 |
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# ? May 25, 2024 08:45 |
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KitConstantine posted:And he's made the appeal to the third world explicit - loosely "it's Asia and Africa and South America that will be defining the world in the future and that's good." "Eurasia needs to be interconnected/integrated" "the west is trying to drive a wedge in Eurasia" "Eurasia should not be defined by it's western tip (Europe) that thinks it's better than everyone else" On a military level, this looks like nonsense. What the hell is the rest of the world going to do to help him in Ukraine? Almost nothing aside from maybe Iran's drones, absolutely nothing whatsoever, their fate is sealed there to whatever it ends up being. I think he's looking for help economically outside the war and after the war. He's realized by now if he didn't know before just how utterly dependent Russia was on the west for trade, capital, and support, and how utterly hosed he is now. He's probably wanting the rest of the world to be brave enough to break off from the west and either form their own economic block that doesn't need the west, or failing that then at least use their influence to convince the west to ease up on sanctions or something. That is not going to happen. Some nations might try to play both sides or say sympathetic things, but the western market is ridiculously dominant, no one else wants to risk being in Russia's position by helping them evade sanctions, not even China. Russia is just hosed now both militarily and economically, Putin is directly responsible, and he's trying to find a way out.
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# ? Oct 27, 2022 16:50 |
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This was the funniest bit of that schizo rant https://twitter.com/ABarbashin/status/1585644707283349506?t=NWAfa9leVbqJ0ZvvVsXQOg&s=19
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# ? Oct 27, 2022 16:55 |
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Twitter post while I continue to listen to this for some reason - most recent bit to stick out is that Russia is a "world leader in de-colonialization" apparently Anti-Putin sabotage group working in Russia https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1585384564259581953?s=20&t=oDIEG3seYvne74Oo2D5Rcw quote:The U.K. Defense Ministry in its daily intelligence update on Wednesday acknowledged the activist group and said it was at least the sixth incident of sabotage against Russian railway infrastructure claimed by STW since June. https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1585587185167880192?s=20&t=oDIEG3seYvne74Oo2D5Rcw Mobilization still problematic in Russia https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1585566508989784069?s=20&t=oDIEG3seYvne74Oo2D5Rcw As is deployment - thread of translated videos showing family members of Russian soldiers complaining about conditions, source link in last tweet of thread https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1585545361120264192?s=20&t=oDIEG3seYvne74Oo2D5Rcw Wagner getting National airtime though https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1585553004597477376?s=20&t=oDIEG3seYvne74Oo2D5Rcw Interesting addendum to the Norwegian Russian Spy news https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1585575421520773123?s=20&t=oDIEG3seYvne74Oo2D5Rcw And why he was arrested now- https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1585619213179392000?s=20&t=oDIEG3seYvne74Oo2D5Rcw World energy outlook was put out today for the interested. Relevance? Well https://twitter.com/Andy_Scollick/status/1585579717704486917?s=20&t=oDIEG3seYvne74Oo2D5Rcw Independent investigation verifying what was suspected - abuse of civilians was commanded from the top of the Russian military. Content warnings for war crime discussion https://twitter.com/Cen4infoRes/status/1585559052507021313?s=20&t=oDIEG3seYvne74Oo2D5Rcw Hits on Ukraine ongoing https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1585555305559199748?s=20&t=oDIEG3seYvne74Oo2D5Rcw Infrastructure damage is getting worse https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1585585828973133827?s=20&t=oDIEG3seYvne74Oo2D5Rcw Really cool thread breaking down where the Iranian drones causing damage are likely launching from - threadreader link: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1585357380426272768.html https://twitter.com/NLwartracker/status/1585357380426272768?s=20&t=oDIEG3seYvne74Oo2D5Rcw Rail station that was hit yesterday was hit again https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1585584031768485888?s=20&t=oDIEG3seYvne74Oo2D5Rcw https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1585650118144966656?s=20&t=oDIEG3seYvne74Oo2D5Rcw Video from yesterday's fire https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1585559372813434880?s=20&t=oDIEG3seYvne74Oo2D5Rcw Ukrainian advances continue https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1585559983307079681?s=20&t=oDIEG3seYvne74Oo2D5Rcw Some well-executed propaganda by Ukraine - The US loves the return of fallen soldier at all cost stories. Nothing graphic in the report - it played on CNN after all https://twitter.com/mickbk/status/1585584498875432960?s=20&t=oDIEG3seYvne74Oo2D5Rcw And to close - Arnold in a silly hat https://twitter.com/Schwarzenegger/status/1585334483808825346?s=20&t=oDIEG3seYvne74Oo2D5Rcw
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# ? Oct 27, 2022 17:01 |
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fatherboxx posted:This was the funniest bit of that schizo rant The sad thing is after 9/11 the EXACT opposite happened. Russia used the "global war on terrorism" as an accuse to crush Caucasus separatism (which the US only ever supported with thoughts and prayers), once 9/11 happened, Russia represented its war as an expansion of the global war on terrorism, and the US stopped any criticism about it.
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# ? Oct 27, 2022 17:02 |
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Rigel posted:On a military level, this looks like nonsense. What the hell is the rest of the world going to do to help him in Ukraine? Almost nothing aside from maybe Iran's drones, absolutely nothing whatsoever, their fate is sealed there to whatever it ends up being. On this - note it's moved to question time, with questions coming from various attendees of the conference now. There was a question about sanctions and how they are able to impact global transactions and a big chunk of his response was about how the US dollar domination of global trade is a problem and a threat to "currency sovereignty" and Russia performing trade in local currencies with India and China is actually 'depoliticized' and is the way of the future! so you are probably close
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# ? Oct 27, 2022 17:03 |
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Rigel posted:On a military level, this looks like nonsense. What the hell is the rest of the world going to do to help him in Ukraine? Almost nothing aside from maybe Iran's drones, absolutely nothing whatsoever, their fate is sealed there to whatever it ends up being. Russia isn't rich or generous enough to build infrastructure like China, they don't have the military capacity to really get involved in places like other countries, and the only "hard power" they have to trade with is natural resources. Which you can get anywhere else those resources exist (market price dependent). Their only remaining play is trying to magnify and incorporate existing grievance against the west. While that's not nothing, it isn't the basis for long-term partnerships when the west (or China) can swoop in with actual aid that Russia can't offer. Pook Good Mook fucked around with this message at 17:13 on Oct 27, 2022 |
# ? Oct 27, 2022 17:10 |
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Line he's pushing during this question time is "economic sovereignty" and that countries need to further internal development of tech/manufacturing so as to remove dependence on the west as much as possible and to move away from the dollar as the currency of global trade in favor of 'local currencies' Also Russia needs deregulation of industry to facilitate that development because of course edit: This is a super long but detailed and ongoing livetweet thread of Putin's appearance at Valdai today. It's much better than mine top of thread: https://twitter.com/pwnallthethings/status/1585637921536675842?s=20&t=bAuixxZQet9oxMqGvv38hQ Most recent tweet: https://twitter.com/pwnallthethings/status/1585667385318690819?s=20&t=bAuixxZQet9oxMqGvv38hQ KitConstantine fucked around with this message at 17:20 on Oct 27, 2022 |
# ? Oct 27, 2022 17:15 |
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Some audiences in Africa, Asia and Latin America might be sympathetic to bits of this, especially the anti-Western rhetoric, but ultimately none of them care enough to do anything of substance. At best, Russia will get some weakly supporting comments that mildly rebuke NATO expansionism and failure to accommodate 'all sides' security concerns. Those audiences have, as I think one African diplomat recently described it, enlightened self interest'. Put bluntly, they don't see how the war concerns them apart from market disruption l, and so are only really interested in what they can get (I'm not singling them out, its hardly a unique stance in international politics). And ultimately Russia has nothing to offer them. Why should they do something stupid like abandon dollars and accept lovely rubles they can't pass on, or otherwise damage their economies for something that's not in their interest.
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# ? Oct 27, 2022 17:23 |
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KitConstantine posted:Line he's pushing during this question time is "economic sovereignty" and that countries need to further internal development of tech/manufacturing so as to remove dependence on the west as much as possible and to move away from the dollar as the currency of global trade in favor of 'local currencies' This would actually mean something if the Russian Government actually walked the talk lol.
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# ? Oct 27, 2022 17:26 |
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Tigey posted:Some audiences in Africa, Asia and Latin America might be sympathetic to bits of this, especially the anti-Western rhetoric, but ultimately none of them care enough to do anything of substance. At best, Russia will get some weakly supporting comments that mildly rebuke NATO expansionism and failure to accommodate 'all sides' security concerns. Exactly. The west winning the Cold War was not just a victory of ideology, but largely an end to ideology motivated decision making. The primary factor for international decision making is now money and value. There is simply no reason to work with or through Russia unless you are forced to (like Iran, Venezuela to some extent), or you have regional reasons to (like India).
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# ? Oct 27, 2022 17:27 |
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KitConstantine posted:Line he's pushing during this question time is "economic sovereignty" and that countries need to further internal development of tech/manufacturing so as to remove dependence on the west as much as possible and to move away from the dollar as the currency of global trade in favor of 'local currencies' Zelensky predicted at the start of this war that it would lead to Russia being a big North Korea. I suppose it's time Putin started articulating Juche.
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# ? Oct 27, 2022 17:29 |
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https://twitter.com/nikmccaren/status/1585648518861324291?t=zSqPZnoFbqbn1971WLxVEg&s=19 Finland and Sweden are joining NATO, Armenia contemplates the value of the CSTO and Central Asia is pivoting to the West. No one since Gorbachev has done more for US hegemony than Putin.
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# ? Oct 27, 2022 18:40 |
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Owling Howl posted:No one since Gorbachev has done more for US hegemony than Putin. Evidently Putin looked at the 2 decade experiment the US just finished in the Middle East, AND Russia's own excursion in Afghanistan, and thought to himself that all of these "Empire shoots it's own junk off" events were little league stuff. He'll show us the true meaning of empire collapse. Correct me if I'm wrong but I imagine the last time Russia built trench lines in their home territory, like they're doing outside Belgorod now, was WW2. So much winning.
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# ? Oct 27, 2022 19:11 |
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:I don't think he thinks morality is real. I think he thinks it's just a front everyone is faking up all the time so why shouldn't he fake one that benefits him just like everyone else is doing.
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# ? Oct 27, 2022 19:12 |
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Xander77 posted:The Russian term is "reverse cargo cult" and it generally applies to political norms and institutions. I… am not sure how that is a reverse of a cargo cult?
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# ? Oct 27, 2022 19:31 |
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Deltasquid posted:I… am not sure how that is a reverse of a cargo cult? Everyone else is faking it, too. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargo_cult#Other_uses Ekaterina Shulman posted:"Cargo-cult is a belief that mock airplanes made of manure and straw-bale may summon the real airplanes who bring canned beef. Reverse cargo-cult is used by the political elites in countries lagging behind who proclaim that, in the developed world, airplanes are also made of manure and straw-bale, and there is also a shortage of canned beef."
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# ? Oct 27, 2022 19:48 |
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Deltasquid posted:I… am not sure how that is a reverse of a cargo cult? They say that democracy doesn't exist in other countries and it's basically voting stations made of straw all the way down, so Russia would be wise not even to pretend.
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# ? Oct 27, 2022 20:01 |
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Paladinus posted:They say that democracy doesn't exist in other countries and it's basically voting stations made of straw all the way down, so Russia would be wise not even to pretend. That's the weirdest part of the Russian sham elections. Its a weird combo of utter disdain for actual democratic process but the almost meticulous adherence to the performance.
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# ? Oct 27, 2022 20:27 |
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WarpedLichen posted:That's the weirdest part of the Russian sham elections. Its a weird combo of utter disdain for actual democratic process but the almost meticulous adherence to the performance. they'd say that the westerners only have the illusion of choice, so this is at least more honest.
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# ? Oct 27, 2022 20:46 |
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Hey all, Here is something I don't understand, or I am trying understand which what exactly is Putin's strategy? As far as I know, he's lost the majority of troops and equipment in the initial attack. Russian Armed forces aren't large enough to even hold pre-2014 territory. Nuclear Weapons wouldn't make sense unless he's intent on literally destroying Ukraine but that would completely go against all of his goals. I guess what I am trying to say how does he think he'll win exactly because I see this just continually grinding away but that doesn't make sense to me either. Even if Europe and America stopped supporting Ukraine it seems unlikely, he'd be able to win. What am I missing?
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# ? Oct 27, 2022 20:50 |
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Hey all, He thinks Ukraine is dependent on European and American support and thusly believes that if he waits them out they might force Ukraine to the table- in real terms, he doesn't actually think Ukraine is a real actor in these things, and only really wants to negotiate with the US for some grand bargain a la the ultimatum he dropped on Europe in January this year.
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# ? Oct 27, 2022 20:55 |
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Hey all, Make it unbearable for Ukraine to continue by destroying all their civilian infrastructure. While Ukrainian casualties are mounting, their families are shivering in cold ruined cities with no running water or sanitation. Something like that.
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# ? Oct 27, 2022 20:55 |
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Hey all, Sunk cost fallacy, plus as others have said, the hope that the US will get tired of giving money to its MIC to give to Ukraine. Unfortunately for him global warming makes Europe care less about gas (this October was 5°C warmer than pre-1980 averages thanks global warming), and the US never tires of funding war.
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# ? Oct 27, 2022 20:56 |
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:I guess what I am trying to say how does he think he'll win exactly because I see this just continually grinding away but that doesn't make sense to me either. Even if Europe and America stopped supporting Ukraine it seems unlikely, he'd be able to win. Stall for time and hope for a way out basically.
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# ? Oct 27, 2022 20:56 |
Crosby B. Alfred posted:Hey all, this post above has a good breakdown: JunkDeluxe posted:Just summarizing the latest episode(he was away for a month due to traveling). He reviewed the developments in Russia for the last few weeks. Writing most of this from memory https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?noseen=0&threadid=4014579&pagenumber=47&perpage=40#post527282312 The short version is, yeah, he doesn't have a strategy to "win," he's just trying to outlast western support and play for time. Maybe he gets lucky and we elect Trump again. Nothing that's happening now is going according to any plan Putin has made, though. He's just continually doubling down because he can't admit defeat without risking his position inside Russia.
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# ? Oct 27, 2022 20:58 |
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Russian Armed forces aren't large enough to even hold pre-2014 territory. I think those are big assumptions to make. I would assume the strategy is to wait until a moment of relative strength and then negotiate a cease-fire to lock in current territorial gains. Everybody is calling him out on the bullshit, but that doesn't mean he won't try it anyway.
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# ? Oct 27, 2022 21:04 |
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No doubt Putin is also waiting for the US midterm elections in a couple weeks with the expectation that the Republicans will take control of possibly both houses of Congress. The overall sentiment among the party will probably continue to support Ukraine, but there are probably going to be whole lot of turbo chuds elected so there could be definitely be a rift within the party. Any bit of fracturing of support is going to help Putin.
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# ? Oct 27, 2022 21:06 |
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Charliegrs posted:No doubt Putin is also waiting for the US midterm elections in a couple weeks with the expectation that the Republicans will take control of possibly both houses of Congress. The overall sentiment among the party will probably continue to support Ukraine, but there are probably going to be whole lot of turbo chuds elected so there could be definitely be a rift within the party. Any bit of fracturing of support is going to help Putin. Then he has a fundamental misunderstanding of US politics. The lend-lease act lets Biden act unilaterally with material support. Congress would have to pass a law revoking it, and Biden will just veto it.
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# ? Oct 27, 2022 21:10 |
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Pook Good Mook posted:Then he has a fundamental misunderstanding of US politics. The lend-lease act lets Biden act unilaterally with material support. Congress would have to pass a law revoking it, and Biden will just veto it. I think he literally has no other choice at this point though, and has to bet everything on support eroding eventually. If he tried to end things now he'll get hosed by the nationalists, so he'd rather get hosed by nationalists later.
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# ? Oct 27, 2022 21:14 |
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Hey all, Basically all of the previous comments are right in their own way. Russia is on the back foot now, but they're still sitting on large parts of territory they didn't have a year ago, and Putin's goal is to end up holding on to it as much as possible. To try to do this (as opposed to Ukraine grinding Russia back to February borders and potentially not stopping there), he's pursuing several angles. Make threats: Even if most people don't think it's credible, if a few people (cough Elon Musk cough) can get worried that not selling out Ukraine risks global nuclear war, then that's a little more pressure to end things. Try to drive off Ukraine's international support: Here we have the whole thing with the gas, attempts to reframe the conflict, pressure/bribes for foreign figures to support Russia's party line, etc. Try to drive off Zelensky's domestic support: Hence why he's using up his remaining long range precision weapons blowing up power plants instead of ammo dumps and airfields. Try to freeze the conflict: Winter is coming, Russia is shipping a lot of (however poorly trained and equipped) conscripts to the front, digging trenches, etc, all in an attempt to slow or stop Ukraine's retaking territory. Even if there's no official ceasefire, Putin can hope for a defacto ceasefire where neither side is really willing to try to attack the other. His goal is to end up with an end to the war where Russia keeps at least something, which he can frame as a victory, and avoid one where they actually have to give up anything they had before the war started (because strongmen can't afford to look weak). Which, sadly, is still definitely a way I think this could end, because while Putin can't prevent it he can potentially still make it extremely painful. Bremen fucked around with this message at 21:18 on Oct 27, 2022 |
# ? Oct 27, 2022 21:14 |
Pook Good Mook posted:Then he has a fundamental misunderstanding of US politics. The lend-lease act lets Biden act unilaterally with material support. Congress would have to pass a law revoking it, and Biden will just veto it. I can't find the quotes I'm thinking of now, but there have been a number of indications that, yeah, Putin fundamentally just doesn't grok democracy as a concept. The same way that we keep making the mistake of assuming he's reliant on popular will for his power, he tends to assume that European leaders are just pawns of Americans, that the American military and media will automatically do whatever the President says, etc.
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# ? Oct 27, 2022 21:18 |
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mobby_6kl posted:I think he literally has no other choice at this point though, and has to bet everything on support eroding eventually. If he tried to end things now he'll get hosed by the nationalists, so he'd rather get hosed by nationalists later. I kinda disagree. Putin has already laid out his cards. Why would he cowtoe to some nationalists if he really wanted to bring things to an end? He could easily have them all rounded up on whatever trumped up charges he could invent.
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# ? Oct 27, 2022 21:23 |
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WarpedLichen posted:I think those are big assumptions to make. At this rate the moment of strength will be after retreating to 2014 borders, which will still be a loss in everyone's eyes. Ukraine isn't slowing down, and Russia isn't learning from their mistakes.
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# ? Oct 27, 2022 21:24 |
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SaTaMaS posted:At this rate the moment of strength will be after retreating to 2014 borders, which will still be a loss in everyone's eyes. Ukraine isn't slowing down, and Russia isn't learning from their mistakes. It's one thing to arrest "liberals" in the outer oblasts, or protestors in the cities. It's another go after influential inner circle types who are more radical than you. If he goes after one for criticism he is risking a palace coup. He may not understand western-style democracy and public opinion, but he sure as poo poo understands authoritarian self-interest.
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# ? Oct 27, 2022 21:26 |
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Bremen posted:Basically all of the previous comments are right in their own way. Russia is on the back foot now, but they're still sitting on large parts of territory they didn't have a year ago, and Putin's goal is to end up holding on to it as much as possible. To try to do this (as opposed to Ukraine grinding Russia back to February borders and potentially not stopping there), he's pursuing several angles. Putin has also been dangling the carrot of returning bits of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts through negotiation in an attempt to get a ceasefire. He may even be sincere! Russia holding on to most of the occupied territory is pretty indisputably a Russian victory, if a hideously expensive one, and giving up some inconsequential territory to make it more palatable to Ukraine and its allies is a small price to pay in return for stopping the bleed and getting some kind of recognition of Russian gains.
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# ? Oct 27, 2022 21:29 |
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Can anyone familiar with Russian laws explain how Uzbek men working in Russia got mobilization summons? Are double citizenship a norm when moving between CIS countries for work?
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# ? Oct 27, 2022 22:01 |
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Pook Good Mook posted:Exactly. The west winning the Cold War was not just a victory of ideology, but largely an end to ideology motivated decision making. The primary factor for international decision making is now money and value. There is simply no reason to work with or through Russia unless you are forced to (like Iran, Venezuela to some extent), or you have regional reasons to (like India). (emphasis mine) This is also an ideology, though. Many people don't perceive it as such because it's presented as the 'neutral', base state of modern civilisations' decision-making. Hieronymous Alloy posted:I can't find the quotes I'm thinking of now, but there have been a number of indications that, yeah, Putin fundamentally just doesn't grok democracy as a concept. The same way that we keep making the mistake of assuming he's reliant on popular will for his power, he tends to assume that European leaders are just pawns of Americans, that the American military and media will automatically do whatever the President says, etc. This is a very good summary, I think. My best friend's husband is Russian (and he absolutely loathes Putin and putinism) and he told me something very similar the beginning of the war, i.e. that Putin never takes other European leaders seriously (excepting maybe Germany, France and the UK) because he thinks they'll do and say as the US tells them to do and say.
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# ? Oct 27, 2022 22:07 |
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Pope Hilarius II posted:(emphasis mine) This is also an ideology, though. Many people don't perceive it as such because it's presented as the 'neutral', base state of modern civilisations' decision-making. I'm not even sure that's true, you can't tell me the US wars in the Middle East aren't ideologically motivated because they sure don't make sense on the value scale (except for some corrupt PMCs).
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# ? Oct 27, 2022 22:10 |
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# ? May 25, 2024 08:45 |
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alex314 posted:Can anyone familiar with Russian laws explain how Uzbek men working in Russia got mobilization summons? Are double citizenship a norm when moving between CIS countries for work? Technically, you can't even have a Uzbek-Russian dual-citizenship, but you can get a Russian citizenship without relinquishing the Uzbek one. That gives a lot of perks when it comes to where you can work and how much you will be paid, so through Russian corruption in the form of institutionalised bribery, it's fairly easy to become a Russian citizen even without knowing the language or checking other boxes. What also reportedly happened, even migrants who are not Russian citizens were 'persuaded' to sign contracts with Russian army right at the immigration centres.
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# ? Oct 27, 2022 22:12 |