War in Ukraine: thread feedback session open unttil Saturday (i'll regret this)

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Paladinus: Jan 11, 2014; heyHEYYYY!!!

The Liz Truss bit is in reference to this
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/audience-liz-truss-ready-press-nuclear-button-unleash-global-annihilation-103552126.html

Clearly, a super real threat.

E: prior to this, Russian media invented whole cloth a quote by Boris Johnson about the UK possibly using nuclear weapons on Russia in retaliation.
https://ru.rebaltica.lv/archives/4074

Paladinus fucked around with this message at 16:52 on Oct 27, 2022

# ? Oct 27, 2022 16:45

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# ? May 24, 2024 03:03

Rigel: Nov 11, 2016

KitConstantine posted:

And he's made the appeal to the third world explicit - loosely "it's Asia and Africa and South America that will be defining the world in the future and that's good." "Eurasia needs to be interconnected/integrated" "the west is trying to drive a wedge in Eurasia" "Eurasia should not be defined by it's western tip (Europe) that thinks it's better than everyone else"

Very clearly aligning Russia away from "the West" as the "historical period of World domination by the West is coming to an end"

On a military level, this looks like nonsense. What the hell is the rest of the world going to do to help him in Ukraine? Almost nothing aside from maybe Iran's drones, absolutely nothing whatsoever, their fate is sealed there to whatever it ends up being.

I think he's looking for help economically outside the war and after the war. He's realized by now if he didn't know before just how utterly dependent Russia was on the west for trade, capital, and support, and how utterly hosed he is now. He's probably wanting the rest of the world to be brave enough to break off from the west and either form their own economic block that doesn't need the west, or failing that then at least use their influence to convince the west to ease up on sanctions or something.

That is not going to happen. Some nations might try to play both sides or say sympathetic things, but the western market is ridiculously dominant, no one else wants to risk being in Russia's position by helping them evade sanctions, not even China. Russia is just hosed now both militarily and economically, Putin is directly responsible, and he's trying to find a way out.

# ? Oct 27, 2022 16:50

fatherboxx: Mar 25, 2013

This was the funniest bit of that schizo rant

https://twitter.com/ABarbashin/status/1585644707283349506?t=NWAfa9leVbqJ0ZvvVsXQOg&s=19

# ? Oct 27, 2022 16:55

KitConstantine: Jan 11, 2013

Twitter post while I continue to listen to this for some reason - most recent bit to stick out is that Russia is a "world leader in de-colonialization" apparently

Anti-Putin sabotage group working in Russia
https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1585384564259581953?s=20&t=oDIEG3seYvne74Oo2D5Rcw

quote:

The U.K. Defense Ministry in its daily intelligence update on Wednesday acknowledged the activist group and said it was at least the sixth incident of sabotage against Russian railway infrastructure claimed by STW since June.

"This is part of a wider trend of dissident attacks against railways in both Russia and Belarus," the ministry said. "The Russian authorities have previously clamped down on STW's online presence."

The group disrupts Russian railways to prevent the transportation of military equipment, fuel, ammunition and other supplies to the frontlines in Ukraine.

# ? Oct 27, 2022 17:01

FishBulbia: Dec 22, 2021

fatherboxx posted:

This was the funniest bit of that schizo rant

https://twitter.com/ABarbashin/status/1585644707283349506?t=NWAfa9leVbqJ0ZvvVsXQOg&s=19

The sad thing is after 9/11 the EXACT opposite happened. Russia used the "global war on terrorism" as an accuse to crush Caucasus separatism (which the US only ever supported with thoughts and prayers), once 9/11 happened, Russia represented its war as an expansion of the global war on terrorism, and the US stopped any criticism about it.

# ? Oct 27, 2022 17:02

KitConstantine: Jan 11, 2013

Rigel posted:

On a military level, this looks like nonsense. What the hell is the rest of the world going to do to help him in Ukraine? Almost nothing aside from maybe Iran's drones, absolutely nothing whatsoever, their fate is sealed there to whatever it ends up being.

I think he's looking for help economically outside the war and after the war. He's realized by now if he didn't know before just how utterly dependent Russia was on the west for trade, capital, and support, and how utterly hosed he is now. He's probably wanting the rest of the world to be brave enough to break off from the west and either form their own economic block that doesn't need the west, or failing that then at least use their influence to convince the west to ease up on sanctions or something.

That is not going to happen. Some nations might try to play both sides or say sympathetic things, but the western market is ridiculously dominant, no one else wants to risk being in Russia's position by helping them evade sanctions, not even China. Russia is just hosed now both militarily and economically, Putin is directly responsible, and he's trying to find a way out.

On this - note it's moved to question time, with questions coming from various attendees of the conference now. There was a question about sanctions and how they are able to impact global transactions and a big chunk of his response was about how the US dollar domination of global trade is a problem and a threat to "currency sovereignty" and Russia performing trade in local currencies with India and China is actually 'depoliticized' and is the way of the future!

so you are probably close

# ? Oct 27, 2022 17:03

Pook Good Mook: Aug 6, 2013; ENFORCE THE UNITED STATES DRESS CODE AT ALL COSTS!

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Rigel posted:

On a military level, this looks like nonsense. What the hell is the rest of the world going to do to help him in Ukraine? Almost nothing aside from maybe Iran's drones, absolutely nothing whatsoever, their fate is sealed there to whatever it ends up being.

I think he's looking for help economically outside the war and after the war. He's realized by now if he didn't know before just how utterly dependent Russia was on the west for trade, capital, and support, and how utterly hosed he is now. He's probably wanting the rest of the world to be brave enough to break off from the west and either form their own economic block that doesn't need the west, or failing that then at least use their influence to convince the west to ease up on sanctions or something.

That is not going to happen. Some nations might try to play both sides or say sympathetic things, but the western market is ridiculously dominant, no one else wants to risk being in Russia's position by helping them evade sanctions, not even China. Russia is just hosed now both militarily and economically, Putin is directly responsible, and he's trying to find a way out.

Russia isn't rich or generous enough to build infrastructure like China, they don't have the military capacity to really get involved in places like other countries, and the only "hard power" they have to trade with is natural resources. Which you can get anywhere else those resources exist (market price dependent).

Their only remaining play is trying to magnify and incorporate existing grievance against the west. While that's not nothing, it isn't the basis for long-term partnerships when the west (or China) can swoop in with actual aid that Russia can't offer.

Pook Good Mook fucked around with this message at 17:13 on Oct 27, 2022

# ? Oct 27, 2022 17:10

KitConstantine: Jan 11, 2013

Line he's pushing during this question time is "economic sovereignty" and that countries need to further internal development of tech/manufacturing so as to remove dependence on the west as much as possible and to move away from the dollar as the currency of global trade in favor of 'local currencies'

Also Russia needs deregulation of industry to facilitate that development because of course

edit: This is a super long but detailed and ongoing livetweet thread of Putin's appearance at Valdai today. It's much better than mine

top of thread:
https://twitter.com/pwnallthethings/status/1585637921536675842?s=20&t=bAuixxZQet9oxMqGvv38hQ
Most recent tweet:
https://twitter.com/pwnallthethings/status/1585667385318690819?s=20&t=bAuixxZQet9oxMqGvv38hQ

KitConstantine fucked around with this message at 17:20 on Oct 27, 2022

# ? Oct 27, 2022 17:15

Tigey: Apr 6, 2015

Some audiences in Africa, Asia and Latin America might be sympathetic to bits of this, especially the anti-Western rhetoric, but ultimately none of them care enough to do anything of substance. At best, Russia will get some weakly supporting comments that mildly rebuke NATO expansionism and failure to accommodate 'all sides' security concerns.

Those audiences have, as I think one African diplomat recently described it, enlightened self interest'. Put bluntly, they don't see how the war concerns them apart from market disruption l, and so are only really interested in what they can get (I'm not singling them out, its hardly a unique stance in international politics).

And ultimately Russia has nothing to offer them. Why should they do something stupid like abandon dollars and accept lovely rubles they can't pass on, or otherwise damage their economies for something that's not in their interest.

# ? Oct 27, 2022 17:23

jeffreyw: Jan 20, 2013

KitConstantine posted:

Line he's pushing during this question time is "economic sovereignty" and that countries need to further internal development of tech/manufacturing so as to remove dependence on the west as much as possible and to move away from the dollar as the currency of global trade in favor of 'local currencies'

Also Russia needs deregulation of industry to facilitate that development because of course

edit: This is a super long but detailed and ongoing livetweet thread of Putin's appearance at Valdai today. It's much better than mine

top of thread:
https://twitter.com/pwnallthethings/status/1585637921536675842?s=20&t=bAuixxZQet9oxMqGvv38hQ
Most recent tweet:
https://twitter.com/pwnallthethings/status/1585667385318690819?s=20&t=bAuixxZQet9oxMqGvv38hQ

This would actually mean something if the Russian Government actually walked the talk lol.

# ? Oct 27, 2022 17:26

Pook Good Mook: Aug 6, 2013; ENFORCE THE UNITED STATES DRESS CODE AT ALL COSTS!

This message paid for by the Men's Wearhouse& Jos A Bank Lobbying Group

Tigey posted:

Some audiences in Africa, Asia and Latin America might be sympathetic to bits of this, especially the anti-Western rhetoric, but ultimately none of them care enough to do anything of substance. At best, Russia will get some weakly supporting comments that mildly rebuke NATO expansionism and failure to accommodate 'all sides' security concerns.

Those audiences have, as I think one African diplomat recently described it, enlightened self interest'. Put bluntly, they don't see how the war concerns them apart from market disruption l, and so are only really interested in what they can get (I'm not singling them out, its hardly a unique stance in international politics).

And ultimately Russia has nothing to offer them. Why should they do something stupid like abandon dollars and accept lovely rubles they can't pass on, or otherwise damage their economies for something that's not in their interest.

Exactly. The west winning the Cold War was not just a victory of ideology, but largely an end to ideology motivated decision making. The primary factor for international decision making is now money and value. There is simply no reason to work with or through Russia unless you are forced to (like Iran, Venezuela to some extent), or you have regional reasons to (like India).

# ? Oct 27, 2022 17:27

William Bear: Oct 26, 2012; "That's what they all say!"

KitConstantine posted:

Line he's pushing during this question time is "economic sovereignty" and that countries need to further internal development of tech/manufacturing so as to remove dependence on the west as much as possible and to move away from the dollar as the currency of global trade in favor of 'local currencies'

Also Russia needs deregulation of industry to facilitate that development because of course

Zelensky predicted at the start of this war that it would lead to Russia being a big North Korea. I suppose it's time Putin started articulating Juche.

# ? Oct 27, 2022 17:29

Owling Howl: Jul 17, 2019

https://twitter.com/nikmccaren/status/1585648518861324291?t=zSqPZnoFbqbn1971WLxVEg&s=19

Finland and Sweden are joining NATO, Armenia contemplates the value of the CSTO and Central Asia is pivoting to the West.

No one since Gorbachev has done more for US hegemony than Putin.

# ? Oct 27, 2022 18:40

Orthanc6: Nov 4, 2009

Owling Howl posted:

No one since Gorbachev has done more for US hegemony than Putin.

Evidently Putin looked at the 2 decade experiment the US just finished in the Middle East, AND Russia's own excursion in Afghanistan, and thought to himself that all of these "Empire shoots it's own junk off" events were little league stuff. He'll show us the true meaning of empire collapse.

Correct me if I'm wrong but I imagine the last time Russia built trench lines in their home territory, like they're doing outside Belgorod now, was WW2. So much winning.

# ? Oct 27, 2022 19:11

Xander77: Apr 6, 2009; Fuck it then. For another pit sandwich and some 'tater salad, I'll post a few more.

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

I don't think he thinks morality is real. I think he thinks it's just a front everyone is faking up all the time so why shouldn't he fake one that benefits him just like everyone else is doing.

The Russian term is "reverse cargo cult" and it generally applies to political norms and institutions.

# ? Oct 27, 2022 19:12

Deltasquid: Apr 10, 2013; awww...
you guys made me ink!

THUNDERDOME

Xander77 posted:

The Russian term is "reverse cargo cult" and it generally applies to political norms and institutions.

I� am not sure how that is a reverse of a cargo cult?

# ? Oct 27, 2022 19:31

ringu0: Feb 24, 2013

Deltasquid posted:

I� am not sure how that is a reverse of a cargo cult?

Everyone else is faking it, too.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargo_cult#Other_uses

Ekaterina Shulman posted:

"Cargo-cult is a belief that mock airplanes made of manure and straw-bale may summon the real airplanes who bring canned beef. Reverse cargo-cult is used by the political elites in countries lagging behind who proclaim that, in the developed world, airplanes are also made of manure and straw-bale, and there is also a shortage of canned beef."

# ? Oct 27, 2022 19:48

Paladinus: Jan 11, 2014; heyHEYYYY!!!

Deltasquid posted:

I� am not sure how that is a reverse of a cargo cult?

They say that democracy doesn't exist in other countries and it's basically voting stations made of straw all the way down, so Russia would be wise not even to pretend.

# ? Oct 27, 2022 20:01

WarpedLichen: Aug 14, 2008

Paladinus posted:

They say that democracy doesn't exist in other countries and it's basically voting stations made of straw all the way down, so Russia would be wise not even to pretend.

That's the weirdest part of the Russian sham elections. Its a weird combo of utter disdain for actual democratic process but the almost meticulous adherence to the performance.

# ? Oct 27, 2022 20:27

FishBulbia: Dec 22, 2021

WarpedLichen posted:

That's the weirdest part of the Russian sham elections. Its a weird combo of utter disdain for actual democratic process but the almost meticulous adherence to the performance.

they'd say that the westerners only have the illusion of choice, so this is at least more honest.

# ? Oct 27, 2022 20:46

Gucci Loafers: May 20, 2006; Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?

Hey all,

Here is something I don't understand, or I am trying understand which what exactly is Putin's strategy? As far as I know, he's lost the majority of troops and equipment in the initial attack. Russian Armed forces aren't large enough to even hold pre-2014 territory. Nuclear Weapons wouldn't make sense unless he's intent on literally destroying Ukraine but that would completely go against all of his goals.

I guess what I am trying to say how does he think he'll win exactly because I see this just continually grinding away but that doesn't make sense to me either. Even if Europe and America stopped supporting Ukraine it seems unlikely, he'd be able to win.

What am I missing?

# ? Oct 27, 2022 20:50

Panzeh: Nov 27, 2006; "..The high ground"

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

Hey all,

Here is something I don't understand, or I am trying understand which what exactly is Putin's strategy? As far as I know, he's lost the majority of troops and equipment in the initial attack. Russian Armed forces aren't large enough to even hold pre-2014 territory. Nuclear Weapons wouldn't make sense unless he's intent on literally destroying Ukraine but that would completely go against all of his goals.

I guess what I am trying to say how does he think he'll win exactly because I see this just continually grinding away but that doesn't make sense to me either. Even if Europe and America stopped supporting Ukraine it seems unlikely, he'd be able to win.

What am I missing?

He thinks Ukraine is dependent on European and American support and thusly believes that if he waits them out they might force Ukraine to the table- in real terms, he doesn't actually think Ukraine is a real actor in these things, and only really wants to negotiate with the US for some grand bargain a la the ultimatum he dropped on Europe in January this year.

# ? Oct 27, 2022 20:55

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

Hey all,

Here is something I don't understand, or I am trying understand which what exactly is Putin's strategy? As far as I know, he's lost the majority of troops and equipment in the initial attack. Russian Armed forces aren't large enough to even hold pre-2014 territory. Nuclear Weapons wouldn't make sense unless he's intent on literally destroying Ukraine but that would completely go against all of his goals.

I guess what I am trying to say how does he think he'll win exactly because I see this just continually grinding away but that doesn't make sense to me either. Even if Europe and America stopped supporting Ukraine it seems unlikely, he'd be able to win.

What am I missing?

Make it unbearable for Ukraine to continue by destroying all their civilian infrastructure. While Ukrainian casualties are mounting, their families are shivering in cold ruined cities with no running water or sanitation. Something like that.

# ? Oct 27, 2022 20:55

Saladman: Jan 12, 2010

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

Hey all,

Here is something I don't understand, or I am trying understand which what exactly is Putin's strategy? As far as I know, he's lost the majority of troops and equipment in the initial attack. Russian Armed forces aren't large enough to even hold pre-2014 territory. Nuclear Weapons wouldn't make sense unless he's intent on literally destroying Ukraine but that would completely go against all of his goals.

I guess what I am trying to say how does he think he'll win exactly because I see this just continually grinding away but that doesn't make sense to me either. Even if Europe and America stopped supporting Ukraine it seems unlikely, he'd be able to win.

What am I missing?

Sunk cost fallacy, plus as others have said, the hope that the US will get tired of giving money to its MIC to give to Ukraine.

Unfortunately for him global warming makes Europe care less about gas (this October was 5�C warmer than pre-1980 averages thanks global warming), and the US never tires of funding war.

# ? Oct 27, 2022 20:56

saratoga: Mar 5, 2001; This is a Randbrick post. It goes in that D&D megathread on page 294

"i think obama was mediocre in that debate, but hillary was fucking terrible. also russert is filth."

-randbrick, 12/26/08

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

I guess what I am trying to say how does he think he'll win exactly because I see this just continually grinding away but that doesn't make sense to me either. Even if Europe and America stopped supporting Ukraine it seems unlikely, he'd be able to win.

Stall for time and hope for a way out basically.

# ? Oct 27, 2022 20:56

Hieronymous Alloy: Jan 30, 2009; Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!; Morbid Hound

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

Hey all,

Here is something I don't understand, or I am trying understand which what exactly is Putin's strategy? As far as I know, he's lost the majority of troops and equipment in the initial attack. Russian Armed forces aren't large enough to even hold pre-2014 territory. Nuclear Weapons wouldn't make sense unless he's intent on literally destroying Ukraine but that would completely go against all of his goals.

I guess what I am trying to say how does he think he'll win exactly because I see this just continually grinding away but that doesn't make sense to me either. Even if Europe and America stopped supporting Ukraine it seems unlikely, he'd be able to win.

What am I missing?

this post above has a good breakdown:

JunkDeluxe posted:

Just summarizing the latest episode(he was away for a month due to traveling). He reviewed the developments in Russia for the last few weeks. Writing most of this from memory

Putin seems to pivot away from "winning" in Ukraine, to "not losing".

His escalation steps are rather limited now. If further pressured we will probably see more hybrid-warfare like the northstream incidents.

Putin's only friend is time. His only way out of this is if the West will start dropping support for Ukraine.

Annexation of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia was a step towards the "not losing" criteria. It does however make him vulnerable internally in Russia - especially if they can't maintain Russian dominance in these regions.

The defensive lines Russia is building must hold - otherwise the pressure will increase on Putin.

He seems certain there won't be new front from Belarus. The RUAF placed in Belarus is there for training, since training resources inside Russia are either fighting in Ukraine or has been otherwise exhausted. Training and armaments will still be crap.

Mobilization in Russia is a poo poo-show. Not only for what we see in pictures and reports in regards to the mobilized personnel. Regional managers in Russia has a quota they need to fill for the mobilization. These regional managers will fill these quota's - but just barely and with whatever they can find. They are all corrupt and will in the end pick and choose resources & personnel in whatever suits their personal agenda. If you bring enough cash to the draft-office, you won't need to go to Ukraine, etc. In general the mobilization in Russia is half-assed due to the general public aren't interested or support it.

In general the Russian population is neither pro/con the war. They are apathetic towards policies, and decisions made in the Kreml as they know they have no say in the matter.
They look at their own situation and tries to make the best of it in a stoic kind of way. The "best" is definitely not demonstrating in the streets. Best case they will be beaten by Rosgvardiya or the police - worst case is they will be drafted and sent to Ukraine. Most people are ducking their heads and hoping for the best.

Speculation about 1/4 of the IT sector has left the country. Probably also the "best" 1/4.

Officials in Russia who are actually pro-Putin, and wants to vitalize the war effort are met by self-serving individuals in all links down the chain. No matter how much they want to change performance or efficiency they will fail.

If Putin want's the Russian war effort to improve, he needs to get the Russian people fully behind him - same as Ukraine. This is very unlikely to happen. There is no real benefit for the regular Russian to be pro-war, their country is not under attack, and their country is suffering directly due to sanctions.

Reports of internal dick measurements between Shoigu & Prigozhin. They are more or less actively working against each other, which generates a issues on the battlefield in coordination between Wagner & RUAF.
Wagner is more or less competing against RUAF in relation to efficiency, results, etc.

80% of the state budget in Chechnya is sponsored by Putin for Kadyrov to do as he see fit. They are spent paying off different sections of the region and VIP's. This is what keeps the peace inside Chechnya. Whenever he is publicly criticizing the RUAF and generals it is typically because he wants more donations from Russia. Lately he has denied Chechnya will add any resources to the mobilization, however if we suddenly see more Karydov BTG's in Ukraine then it probably means Kadyrov got paid of again. Putin is also very interested in keeping Chechnya under control - if any unrest or instability starts here it could start an uprising as many militant groups are keen on wiping Kadyrov out. If he starts showing weakness they might pounce.

Putin is occupied with the war. Which means he has little time for actually running the country. During his reign he has created a state which is mostly dependent on him handling internal disputes and regional matters, when there are larger issues. Regions are starved from resources(both the corrupt kind, and the "normal" resources), and Putin is the man who can set aside resources and prop up the local regional managers when they need help. He is not doing this right now, which in turn leads to several regions having local issues.

https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?noseen=0&threadid=4014579&pagenumber=47&perpage=40#post527282312

The short version is, yeah, he doesn't have a strategy to "win," he's just trying to outlast western support and play for time. Maybe he gets lucky and we elect Trump again.

Nothing that's happening now is going according to any plan Putin has made, though. He's just continually doubling down because he can't admit defeat without risking his position inside Russia.

# ? Oct 27, 2022 20:58

WarpedLichen: Aug 14, 2008

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

Russian Armed forces aren't large enough to even hold pre-2014 territory.
Even if Europe and America stopped supporting Ukraine it seems unlikely, he'd be able to win.

I think those are big assumptions to make.

I would assume the strategy is to wait until a moment of relative strength and then negotiate a cease-fire to lock in current territorial gains. Everybody is calling him out on the bullshit, but that doesn't mean he won't try it anyway.

# ? Oct 27, 2022 21:04

Charliegrs: Aug 10, 2009

No doubt Putin is also waiting for the US midterm elections in a couple weeks with the expectation that the Republicans will take control of possibly both houses of Congress. The overall sentiment among the party will probably continue to support Ukraine, but there are probably going to be whole lot of turbo chuds elected so there could be definitely be a rift within the party. Any bit of fracturing of support is going to help Putin.

# ? Oct 27, 2022 21:06

Pook Good Mook: Aug 6, 2013; ENFORCE THE UNITED STATES DRESS CODE AT ALL COSTS!

This message paid for by the Men's Wearhouse& Jos A Bank Lobbying Group

Charliegrs posted:

No doubt Putin is also waiting for the US midterm elections in a couple weeks with the expectation that the Republicans will take control of possibly both houses of Congress. The overall sentiment among the party will probably continue to support Ukraine, but there are probably going to be whole lot of turbo chuds elected so there could be definitely be a rift within the party. Any bit of fracturing of support is going to help Putin.

Then he has a fundamental misunderstanding of US politics. The lend-lease act lets Biden act unilaterally with material support. Congress would have to pass a law revoking it, and Biden will just veto it.

# ? Oct 27, 2022 21:10

mobby_6kl: Aug 9, 2009; by Fluffdaddy

Pook Good Mook posted:

Then he has a fundamental misunderstanding of US politics. The lend-lease act lets Biden act unilaterally with material support. Congress would have to pass a law revoking it, and Biden will just veto it.

Also most republicans, outside the 30-40 chuds in the house, are even more hawkish than Biden, if anything. See McConnel's recent statement.

I think he literally has no other choice at this point though, and has to bet everything on support eroding eventually. If he tried to end things now he'll get hosed by the nationalists, so he'd rather get hosed by nationalists later.

# ? Oct 27, 2022 21:14

Bremen: Jul 20, 2006; Our God..... is an awesome God

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

Hey all,

Here is something I don't understand, or I am trying understand which what exactly is Putin's strategy? As far as I know, he's lost the majority of troops and equipment in the initial attack. Russian Armed forces aren't large enough to even hold pre-2014 territory. Nuclear Weapons wouldn't make sense unless he's intent on literally destroying Ukraine but that would completely go against all of his goals.

I guess what I am trying to say how does he think he'll win exactly because I see this just continually grinding away but that doesn't make sense to me either. Even if Europe and America stopped supporting Ukraine it seems unlikely, he'd be able to win.

What am I missing?

Basically all of the previous comments are right in their own way. Russia is on the back foot now, but they're still sitting on large parts of territory they didn't have a year ago, and Putin's goal is to end up holding on to it as much as possible. To try to do this (as opposed to Ukraine grinding Russia back to February borders and potentially not stopping there), he's pursuing several angles.

Make threats: Even if most people don't think it's credible, if a few people (cough Elon Musk cough) can get worried that not selling out Ukraine risks global nuclear war, then that's a little more pressure to end things.
Try to drive off Ukraine's international support: Here we have the whole thing with the gas, attempts to reframe the conflict, pressure/bribes for foreign figures to support Russia's party line, etc.
Try to drive off Zelensky's domestic support: Hence why he's using up his remaining long range precision weapons blowing up power plants instead of ammo dumps and airfields.
Try to freeze the conflict: Winter is coming, Russia is shipping a lot of (however poorly trained and equipped) conscripts to the front, digging trenches, etc, all in an attempt to slow or stop Ukraine's retaking territory. Even if there's no official ceasefire, Putin can hope for a defacto ceasefire where neither side is really willing to try to attack the other.

His goal is to end up with an end to the war where Russia keeps at least something, which he can frame as a victory, and avoid one where they actually have to give up anything they had before the war started (because strongmen can't afford to look weak). Which, sadly, is still definitely a way I think this could end, because while Putin can't prevent it he can potentially still make it extremely painful.

Bremen fucked around with this message at 21:18 on Oct 27, 2022

# ? Oct 27, 2022 21:14

Hieronymous Alloy: Jan 30, 2009; Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!; Morbid Hound

Pook Good Mook posted:

Then he has a fundamental misunderstanding of US politics. The lend-lease act lets Biden act unilaterally with material support. Congress would have to pass a law revoking it, and Biden will just veto it.

I can't find the quotes I'm thinking of now, but there have been a number of indications that, yeah, Putin fundamentally just doesn't grok democracy as a concept. The same way that we keep making the mistake of assuming he's reliant on popular will for his power, he tends to assume that European leaders are just pawns of Americans, that the American military and media will automatically do whatever the President says, etc.

# ? Oct 27, 2022 21:18

Burns: May 10, 2008

mobby_6kl posted:

I think he literally has no other choice at this point though, and has to bet everything on support eroding eventually. If he tried to end things now he'll get hosed by the nationalists, so he'd rather get hosed by nationalists later.

I kinda disagree. Putin has already laid out his cards. Why would he cowtoe to some nationalists if he really wanted to bring things to an end? He could easily have them all rounded up on whatever trumped up charges he could invent.

# ? Oct 27, 2022 21:23

SaTaMaS: Apr 18, 2003

WarpedLichen posted:

I think those are big assumptions to make.

I would assume the strategy is to wait until a moment of relative strength and then negotiate a cease-fire to lock in current territorial gains. Everybody is calling him out on the bullshit, but that doesn't mean he won't try it anyway.

At this rate the moment of strength will be after retreating to 2014 borders, which will still be a loss in everyone's eyes. Ukraine isn't slowing down, and Russia isn't learning from their mistakes.

# ? Oct 27, 2022 21:24

Pook Good Mook: Aug 6, 2013; ENFORCE THE UNITED STATES DRESS CODE AT ALL COSTS!

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SaTaMaS posted:

At this rate the moment of strength will be after retreating to 2014 borders, which will still be a loss in everyone's eyes. Ukraine isn't slowing down, and Russia isn't learning from their mistakes.

It's one thing to arrest "liberals" in the outer oblasts, or protestors in the cities. It's another go after influential inner circle types who are more radical than you. If he goes after one for criticism he is risking a palace coup. He may not understand western-style democracy and public opinion, but he sure as poo poo understands authoritarian self-interest.

# ? Oct 27, 2022 21:26

the holy poopacy: May 16, 2009; hey! check this out; Fun Shoe

Bremen posted:

Basically all of the previous comments are right in their own way. Russia is on the back foot now, but they're still sitting on large parts of territory they didn't have a year ago, and Putin's goal is to end up holding on to it as much as possible. To try to do this (as opposed to Ukraine grinding Russia back to February borders and potentially not stopping there), he's pursuing several angles.

Make threats: Even if most people don't think it's credible, if a few people (cough Elon Musk cough) can get worried that not selling out Ukraine risks global nuclear war, then that's a little more pressure to end things.
Try to drive off Ukraine's international support: Here we have the whole thing with the gas, attempts to reframe the conflict, pressure/bribes for foreign figures to support Russia's party line, etc.
Try to drive off Zelensky's domestic support: Hence why he's using up his remaining long range precision weapons blowing up power plants instead of ammo dumps and airfields.
Try to freeze the conflict: Winter is coming, Russia is shipping a lot of (however poorly trained and equipped) conscripts to the front, digging trenches, etc, all in an attempt to slow or stop Ukraine's retaking territory. Even if there's no official ceasefire, Putin can hope for a defacto ceasefire where neither side is really willing to try to attack the other.

His goal is to end up with an end to the war where Russia keeps at least something, which he can frame as a victory, and avoid one where they actually have to give up anything they had before the war started (because strongmen can't afford to look weak). Which, sadly, is still definitely a way I think this could end, because while Putin can't prevent it he can potentially still make it extremely painful.

Putin has also been dangling the carrot of returning bits of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts through negotiation in an attempt to get a ceasefire. He may even be sincere! Russia holding on to most of the occupied territory is pretty indisputably a Russian victory, if a hideously expensive one, and giving up some inconsequential territory to make it more palatable to Ukraine and its allies is a small price to pay in return for stopping the bleed and getting some kind of recognition of Russian gains.

# ? Oct 27, 2022 21:29

alex314: Nov 22, 2007

Can anyone familiar with Russian laws explain how Uzbek men working in Russia got mobilization summons? Are double citizenship a norm when moving between CIS countries for work?

# ? Oct 27, 2022 22:01

Pope Hilarius II: Nov 10, 2008

Pook Good Mook posted:

Exactly. The west winning the Cold War was not just a victory of ideology, but largely an end to ideology motivated decision making. The primary factor for international decision making is now money and value. There is simply no reason to work with or through Russia unless you are forced to (like Iran, Venezuela to some extent), or you have regional reasons to (like India).

(emphasis mine) This is also an ideology, though. Many people don't perceive it as such because it's presented as the 'neutral', base state of modern civilisations' decision-making.

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

I can't find the quotes I'm thinking of now, but there have been a number of indications that, yeah, Putin fundamentally just doesn't grok democracy as a concept. The same way that we keep making the mistake of assuming he's reliant on popular will for his power, he tends to assume that European leaders are just pawns of Americans, that the American military and media will automatically do whatever the President says, etc.

This is a very good summary, I think. My best friend's husband is Russian (and he absolutely loathes Putin and putinism) and he told me something very similar the beginning of the war, i.e. that Putin never takes other European leaders seriously (excepting maybe Germany, France and the UK) because he thinks they'll do and say as the US tells them to do and say.

# ? Oct 27, 2022 22:07

WarpedLichen: Aug 14, 2008

Pope Hilarius II posted:

(emphasis mine) This is also an ideology, though. Many people don't perceive it as such because it's presented as the 'neutral', base state of modern civilisations' decision-making.

I'm not even sure that's true, you can't tell me the US wars in the Middle East aren't ideologically motivated because they sure don't make sense on the value scale (except for some corrupt PMCs).

# ? Oct 27, 2022 22:10

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# ? May 24, 2024 03:03

Paladinus: Jan 11, 2014; heyHEYYYY!!!

alex314 posted:

Can anyone familiar with Russian laws explain how Uzbek men working in Russia got mobilization summons? Are double citizenship a norm when moving between CIS countries for work?

Technically, you can't even have a Uzbek-Russian dual-citizenship, but you can get a Russian citizenship without relinquishing the Uzbek one. That gives a lot of perks when it comes to where you can work and how much you will be paid, so through Russian corruption in the form of institutionalised bribery, it's fairly easy to become a Russian citizen even without knowing the language or checking other boxes. What also reportedly happened, even migrants who are not Russian citizens were 'persuaded' to sign contracts with Russian army right at the immigration centres.

# ? Oct 27, 2022 22:12

The Something Awful Forums > Archives > Comedy Goldmine > The Goodmine > War in Ukraine: thread feedback session open unttil Saturday (i'll regret this)

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