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cochise posted:It's Poland. They are itching to kill a bunch of Russians for obvious reasons. Not really, no. Yes, we and the Russians have traditionally loving hated each other's guts and this is more intense now than it has been in a long while, but people here are primarily scared of Russia. Even though it's a paper tiger, we can see the devastation wrought on Ukraine. Nobody but ultranationalist morons thinks of Poland as some kind of military power. Very, very few people want a shooting war and hopefully that includes our lovely government. For example, I am presently loving terrified.
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Nov 15, 2022 22:00
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Tomn posted:I wonder if this is going to have any effects on Orban's stance on Putin.
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Nov 15, 2022 22:02
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Here's a good view of how close to the border it is - click 'Show Cross Border Sections Only' and it's easy to spot - https://www.entsoe.eu/data/map/
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Nov 15, 2022 22:03
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Guildencrantz posted:Not really, no. Yes, we and the Russians have traditionally loving hated each other's guts and this is more intense now than it has been in a long while, but people here are primarily scared of Russia. Even though it's a paper tiger, we can see the devastation wrought on Ukraine. Nobody but ultranationalist morons thinks of Poland as some kind of military power. Very, very few people want a shooting war and hopefully that includes our lovely government. It’s resentment not bloodlust.
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Nov 15, 2022 22:03
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evil_bunnY posted:It's also the first black-on-white agreement with security guarantees from the US and UK, which they then reneged on because once you've lost your nukes WGAF about what you think. Is this that false info about the Budapest Memorandum including security guarantees? Have you read it? Here's the English version in its entirety. quote:Memorandum on Security Assurances in connection with Ukraine’s accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Last time I saw someone making this claim, I asked how they saw a guarantee, but didn't get an answer. I wonder if people are reading "respect" as "guarantee"? For people who can read the Russian or Ukrainian versions, could a similar confusion happen?
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Nov 15, 2022 22:08
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I see a lot of bloodlust for Russians in comments on news articles (I know, I know) on Polish sites, so I can't say I don't see where this stereotype comes from. However, I don't think anyone who's not brain fried enough to comment on news articles believes anything good would come out of a direct war. I'm trying to come down from a panic attack, personally. I don't believe this will cause Article 5 to be invoked, and there are local voices saying so as well as they don't believe this is intentional, but it's still terrifying. 
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Nov 15, 2022 22:09
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Shes Not Impressed posted:Cooler heads will prevail Poland started WWII? Due to its arrogance and self-confidence? Jesus Christ. 
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Nov 15, 2022 22:10
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KitConstantine posted:Here ya go Thanks. The original image looked like it was basically the same latitude which made a typo in longitude plausible, but this looks pretty much diagonal, so that's way less likely to be someone misreading someone's lousy handwriting.
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Nov 15, 2022 22:19
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Polish PM and president went out - didn't say if it was a Russian missile or not, increasing readiness of some military units, maybe article 4 (as in, they're thinking if it will be maybe invoked, not that it was invoked)?
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Nov 15, 2022 22:22
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Definitely calling Article 4 - consultations. Edit - no, sorry, mmmkay has it right, they’re considering article 4 Mokotow fucked around with this message at 22:32 on Nov 15, 2022 |
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Nov 15, 2022 22:23
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cant cook creole bream posted:So what if the police goes after the robber and hits the civilian instead? Is that the robbers fault? Just dug this up to confirm - but yes, in most states in the US, if as in the example the guy used here, a security guard shot at an armed criminal during a bank robbery, missed, and killed a baby outside, the criminal would be liable for felony murder as long as the crime was dangerous to begin with, and the death was foreseeable (the linked page and the next page after goes into this). So to bring this back to Russia, if US law was applied then if Russia was shooting missiles at the Ukrainian/Polish border and Ukraine's air defense network ended up missing and hitting Polish civilians, then while Ukraine may or may not be prosecuted separately for the deaths, Russia would be liable since firing missiles is inherently dangerous and since firing missiles near a national border has a predictable possibility of accidentally spilling over the border. Not of course that US criminal law is applicable here or that geopolitics isn't going to be the ultimate deciding factor in how this gets resolved, but just noting that at least according to the principles of some legal codes Russia would indeed still be considered responsible for the deaths, though perhaps not solely responsible.
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Nov 15, 2022 22:24
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Tomn posted:"Poland started WW2 because it didn't roll over for Hitler" is one hell of a hot take. Is that remotely common in Russian popular history or was this take specifically created for current events? No, as someone who’s read quite a bit of popular and K-12 Russian history literature, it’s not. The room temperature Russian definition for the start of the Great Patriotic War is June 22, 1941 air raids by German forces. The period before then is technically referred to as “the Second World War”, but it’s not regarded as a comparatively important one in popular literature/early education. The room temperature Russian take for that how that played out is “escalating tensions between capitalist winners and losers of the First World War”, with the following representative timeline of noteworthy events: 1932 Japan occupies Manchuria 1933 Hitler comes to power 1935 Italy attacks Ethiopia 1936 Germany invades Rhineland 1938 Germany annexes Austria 1939 Germany occupies Czechoslovakia 1939 Germany invades Lithuania 1939 Italy occupies Albania August 23, 1939 - pariah-state USSR is forced by the political realities to sign a non-aggression pact with Germany September 1, 1939 - the Second World War officially begins with the German attack on Poland September 17, 1939 - the Red Army enters Poland to interfere with the German advance on the USSR and to protect from the collapse of civic order the ethnic Ukrainian and Belarus minorities living in western Ukraine and western Belarus respectively, constituent lands of Russia up until 1917 cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 23:05 on Nov 15, 2022 |
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Nov 15, 2022 22:24
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cant cook creole bream posted:So what if the police goes after the robber and hits the civilian instead? Is that the robbers fault? Yes, at least in US law. The robber instigated the criminal circumstance which required to the police to intervene. (If you're trying to be cheeky about how US police use lethal force too often, then it's a bad analogy for what happened here.)
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Nov 15, 2022 22:28
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I think he's saying that the false flag operations the Nazis used as a casus bell to stack Poland e.g. the Gleiwitz incident, where actually done by Poland all along and Nazi Germany had a right to defend itself from this unprovoked war mongering. Disclaimer, this is not my opinion in the slightest. Posting that felt gross.
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Nov 15, 2022 22:31
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cant cook creole bream posted:So what if the police goes after the robber and hits the civilian instead? Is that the robbers fault? Actually, yes under most systems of law. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transferred_intent https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Felony_murder_rule. Barrel Cactaur fucked around with this message at 22:38 on Nov 15, 2022 |
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Nov 15, 2022 22:31
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cant cook creole bream posted:I think he's saying that the false flag operations the Nazis used as a casus bell to stack Poland e.g. the Gleiwitz incident, where actually done by Poland all along and Nazi Germany had a right to defend itself from this unprovoked war mongering. I think it’s just a boomer with a light Medvedev syndrome.
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Nov 15, 2022 22:32
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What the Polish government said after their closed door meeting ended https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/1592628502108704768?s=20&t=2wsFRB42QSfTc5zR7jSRTA And Statement from the NATO Secretary-General https://twitter.com/jensstoltenberg/status/1592627634042986497?s=20&t=2wsFRB42QSfTc5zR7jSRTA
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Nov 15, 2022 22:36
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Guildencrantz posted:
I'm more resigned to my fate, the true EE mood. Also PiS fucks are probably dancing with joy now, their ratings were so-so lately and more clear danger from Russia will help.
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Nov 15, 2022 22:37
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sean10mm posted:I don't think Putin is literally crazy, but it sure seems like he's got nothing but kiss-rear end types working for him, and everyone is lying up and down the chain of command to cover their own asses after each new botched op. It's not an environment that produces good strategic decisions. Perun actually just had a video covering this topic a few days ago. https://youtu.be/Fz59GWeTIik
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Nov 15, 2022 23:05
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Tomn posted:
From memory each State in the US has various levels of Joint Enterprise/common design law. The maddest one I encountered was a case (in I suspect Texas) where a car drives up to break into and burglar a man's house. There are four people in the car (the getaway driver and the three guys who go into the house.) The owner of the house is home and armed. He shoots dead all three intruders, including one who had fled the house and was running towards the getaway car. The home owner then proceeds to shoot at the getaway driver. The getaway driver drives away, at which point the home owner then proceeds to get into their car and chase the getaway driver while shooting at them. The car chase ends when the getaway driver drives to a police station to turn themselves in and to protect themselves from the crazed home owner. Later the getaway driverbis not only charged with Burglary under JE, but also the murder of the three dead burglars. I think that was because the States law let any participant in a crime get charged with all offences carried out. So the Home Owner murdered the three burglars, but was protected under the Stand Your Ground/Home Invasion principle. But the getaway driver was eligible for their murders? It was something nonsensical in my eyes and my Googling hasn't brought up any results. (Turns out there are lots of news stories about murders.) But the lesson I learned was America's laws are crazy.
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Nov 15, 2022 23:13
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TheRat posted:Iran shot down an airline recently, right after attacking a US army base. Nothing significant happened. You're leaving out quite a bit of context on this that answers your question. Iran hit a base with missiles (after US forces were warned in one way or another and had time to evacuate) in Iraq after the US assassinated a top Iranian official in Iraq. They shot down the airliner as a gently caress up while they were expecting retaliation from Trump mouthing off at them about the army base.
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Nov 15, 2022 23:27
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Guildencrantz posted:Not really, no. Yes, we and the Russians have traditionally loving hated each other's guts and this is more intense now than it has been in a long while, but people here are primarily scared of Russia. Even though it's a paper tiger, we can see the devastation wrought on Ukraine. Nobody but ultranationalist morons thinks of Poland as some kind of military power. Very, very few people want a shooting war and hopefully that includes our lovely government. Terrified is not something you should be right now. The road from the onramp to the highway and the final destination being armageddon is quite long with many exit points along the way. It is just unfortunate that for the first time since the outbreak of hostilities, the onramp has occurred. Poland's response will dictate how scary this is. If they throw a tantrum and make outsized demands publicly using inflammatory language, that puts pressure on all sides. If they grit their teeth and keep it low key like the Israelis did in '91 this goes away quietly.
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Nov 15, 2022 23:53
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TheRat posted:Iran shot down an airline recently, right after attacking a US army base. Nothing significant happened.  I can not emphasize enough how not grounded in reality 'and nothing significant happened' takes are when it comes to geopolitics
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Nov 15, 2022 23:55
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"Considering" whether to invoke article 4 (which is itself just "hey NATO we should talk") is a pretty measured response and very much not the "Poland wants to start WW3" meme that everyone was making them out to be.
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Nov 16, 2022 00:00
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The Question IRL posted:Later the getaway driverbis not only charged with Burglary under JE, but also the murder of the three dead burglars. I think that was because the States law let any participant in a crime get charged with all offences carried out. So the Home Owner murdered the three burglars, but was protected under the Stand Your Ground/Home Invasion principle. But the getaway driver was eligible for their murders? From an American context, the only thing insane about this is that the Homeowner unnecessarily chased after the getaway driver trying to kill them after they fled. He is very lucky that he was unsuccessful because that would have been a crime even here and I suspect could have been charged with attempted murder. (shooting the guy who was trying to run back to the car might be controversial depending on the state) The getaway driver being charged with the deaths of his 3 fellow burglars under the felony murder rule is completely uncontroversial in at least most if not all states. There are some states that will even go so far as invoke the felony murder rule if you are arrested for driving drunk, are then specifically warned by the justice system during your punishment that you could be held responsible if you ever kill someone while driving drunk again, then you do drive drunk and kill someone. Rigel fucked around with this message at 00:06 on Nov 16, 2022 |
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Nov 16, 2022 00:00
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ZombieLenin posted:If it’s actually two missiles as is being reported by some outlets, I find it highly dubious this was anything other than an intentional direct escalation of the Russian government aimed at seeing how far they can actually push NATO. Whatever the specific intention was, they're 100% pushing it in that direction, yeah. Russia would love nothing more than to set a precedent that they can attack targets supporting Ukraine inside of Poland without NATO retaliation. It's also a helluva chance to sow chaos in NATO if they don't respond.
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Nov 16, 2022 00:02
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ZombieLenin posted:If it’s actually two missiles as is being reported by some outlets, I find it highly dubious this was anything other than an intentional direct escalation of the Russian government aimed at seeing how far they can actually push NATO. I would assume that one of the missiles was Russian, and the other one was an Ukrainian one chasing the Russian one.
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Nov 16, 2022 00:09
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Tuna-Fish posted:I would assume that one of the missiles was Russian, and the other one was an Ukrainian one chasing the Russian one. That or maybe engine fell off or some such, since a few hundred kg of metal falling on a normal barn for cows is still a mess. Any Polish goons still awake for some weird reason - are there some serious domestic providing original reporting stating that two missile struck Polish soil?
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Nov 16, 2022 00:20
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cinci zoo sniper posted:That or maybe engine fell off or some such, since a few hundred kg of metal falling on a normal barn for cows is still a mess. A priest from a local parish says it was one explosion while his maid says it was two, because the missile came down during the evening mass to which no-one came. I poo poo you not, this is in the news. In reality, area is completely cordoned off and eyewitness accounts are sparse. People who heard it far away - up to 40 km - say they heard a single boom.
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Nov 16, 2022 00:25
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cinci zoo sniper posted:That or maybe engine fell off or some such, since a few hundred kg of metal falling on a normal barn for cows is still a mess. The Foreign Ministry is only claiming one (so far). https://www.gov.pl/web/dyplomacja/komunikat-w-zwiazku-z-wezwaniem-ambasadora-federacji-rosyjskiej-do-msz
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Nov 16, 2022 00:30
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Poland now calling it "Russian-made missile" Source: Guardian live blog quote:The Polish foreign ministry has said that a “Russian-made missile” was responsible for killing two people in the eastern village of Przewodów on Tuesday afternoon.
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Nov 16, 2022 00:30
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My prediction: NATO will activate air defence and be very broad on where they might shot down missiles.
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Nov 16, 2022 00:33
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jaete posted:Poland now calling it "Russian-made missile" I wonder if Ukraine's S300s were made in Russia and are old soviet stocks? I couldn't find any info on Wikipedia stating they were manufactured anywhere except Russia. So maybe Poland is technically right that the missiles are Russian made but if it's an S300 that doesn't necessarily mean it was fired by Russia.
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Nov 16, 2022 00:40
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cinci zoo sniper posted:That or maybe engine fell off or some such, since a few hundred kg of metal falling on a normal barn for cows is still a mess. The official statement is that there was "an explosion" and the president said on air "Without a doubt this was a rocket explosion. Our allies are also certain about this. However there seems to be no risk of further incidents like this". Didn't specify the country of origin of the rocket as "the experts are working" I do not believe that Duda or Morawiecki will decide to go to war just now. They are doing everything they can to calm people down, even saying specifically that "selected units" of the military are on high alert, not the whole military. They will try to play this as calm as possible, this will not be the spark. NATO and especially the US need to see that we are not bloodthirsty, because then they might see us as reckless and that could hinder actual help to Ukraine. I know they know this. I am sure that lesser ministers and other PMs will try to say "yeah let's go and gently caress'em up", but the people who actually make that decision know better, and see the value we provide to Ukraine when we're not active combatants. Besides, we've tried to go into defensive combat like this counting on "oh surely our allies will help" and we got gently caress all from the mighty British Empire and the French back in '39, I think we've learned our lesson. Still - I did get a chill down my spine and hugged my kid a bit tighter when the news dropped. I technically could get drafted, but I believe it will not come to this. Not tonight.
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Nov 16, 2022 00:58
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https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/1592668115078639617
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Nov 16, 2022 01:12
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Herstory Begins Now posted:
Christ I forgot we aced the leader of Quds Force in a parking lot under false negotiation pretenses
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Nov 16, 2022 01:19
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So reading between the lines from these statements seems it was a stray Ukrainian fired S-300 missile. Reminds me of Syrian S-200 missile making its way into Northern Cyprus trying to hit some Israeli jets or cruise missiles.
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Nov 16, 2022 01:21
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Maybe we'll see some more ammo depots and factories spontaneously combusting on Russian soil soon?
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Nov 16, 2022 01:23
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Charlotte Hornets posted:So reading between the lines from these statements seems it was a stray Ukrainian fired S-300 missile. That seem to be reading a bit too much between the lines  It's certainly a possibility but it's not like they were going to declare that "russia is outlawed forever", it's clearly not part of a full scale attack so they can investigate and come up with a response tomorrow.
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Unrelated to everything else, but finally some good news for Mariupol! https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1592596951534817280
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Nov 16, 2022 02:08
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