|
The Devils are still leading the league in 5v5 xgoals. I suspect they'll be just fine unless their goaltending completely implodes.
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2022 15:51
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 3, 2024 18:12 |
|
|
After claiming it was just 5 points to the wild card Chuck Fletcher and the Flyers now find themselves 8 points adrift and 5 points from worst in the east.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2022 16:03
|
|
|
rex rabidorum vires posted:After claiming it was just 5 points to the wild card Chuck Fletcher and the Flyers now find themselves 8 points adrift and 5 points from worst in the east. That's only four wins!!!
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2022 16:12
|
|
|
I think Vancouver making the playoffs and Calgary missing the playoffs would be pretty good and funny for a LOT of reasons.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2022 16:24
|
|
|
The Devils are still a good team, and they'll probably be fine/a playoff team, but this is pretty much what I expected would happen once they got into this part of December when I was looking at their schedule. They beat a lot of bottom feeders in October and November. I did not think they'd lose to Philly though. Looking ahead, their March looks rough too. 16 games in 31 days and they play Colorado, Vegas, Toronto, Carolina, Tampa Bay (x3 in six days!), Florida, Minnesota, among others.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2022 16:26
|
|
|
Same. Nobody thought they'd sustain a 21-2 pace. They're bound to go through some downs as they play a harder schedule and get deeper into the season. But I think everyone is on the train of "they are a really good team." I think they finish with something around 100 points.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2022 17:04
|
|
|
Darude - Adam Sandstorm posted:I think Vancouver making the playoffs and Calgary missing the playoffs would be pretty good and funny for a LOT of reasons. The Canucks aren't making the playoffs. They're currently scoring their way out of all their incredible defensive problems. At some point soon that will dry up a bit and they'll lose 8 of 11 before rallying to an 12th overall pick.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2022 17:06
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/PR_NHL/status/1603782217632993280 Welcome back Jakub! All of your teammates are dead.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2022 17:09
|
|
|
fawning deference posted:Same. Nobody thought they'd sustain a 21-2 pace. They're bound to go through some downs as they play a harder schedule and get deeper into the season. But I think everyone is on the train of "they are a really good team." I think they finish with something around 100 points. They need to add at least one top 6 forward who can score goals and maybe 2. Guys like Zetturlund, Haula and Tatar aren't top 6 guys on good teams. I think the defense is still very good and the goaltending can be "fine" but they simply aren't finishing enough chances. Last night was just rancid and pathetic... Really 3 of the last 4 games have been this same kind of game.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2022 17:10
|
|
|
they should get Horvat and Quinn from Vancouver in return for a bunch (all) of their good prospects. All Hughes team come on lets see it.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2022 17:12
|
|
|
Jamwad Hilder posted:they should get Horvat and Quinn from Vancouver in return for a bunch (all) of their good prospects. All Hughes team come on lets see it. I can't see them trading for a Dman but Horvat would be good. I mean Quinn is awesome so maybe if you can get him you just do it anyway.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2022 17:20
|
|
|
mcmagic posted:They need to add at least one top 6 forward who can score goals and maybe 2. Guys like Zetturlund, Haula and Tatar aren't top 6 guys on good teams. I think the defense is still very good and the goaltending can be "fine" but they simply aren't finishing enough chances. Last night was just rancid and pathetic... Really 3 of the last 4 games have been this same kind of game. Tatar has been awesome and meshes really with Nico, he's fine in the top six. They get Palat and Bastian back soon which I think will shore up the depth -- the BMW line has a ton of chemistry and allowed rolling four lines comfortably. I agree that they need another top six forward to push someone like Sharangovich or Haula out and into the bottom six.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2022 17:20
|
|
|
ThinkTank posted:It did result in a three game mid season mini series between the Canucks and Oilers that was a bloodbath by the third game though, that was pretty cool. so sick. they should set this up intentionally
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2022 17:23
|
|
|
Darude - Adam Sandstorm posted:I think Vancouver making the playoffs and Calgary missing the playoffs would be pretty good and funny for a LOT of reasons. i'm fine with it too. i hate this team
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2022 17:49
|
|
|
heehee posted:so sick. they should set this up intentionally I have long been a proponent of bringing it back. I went to the third game and it was so fun. They were clearly totally sick of each other by then. mennoknight posted:i'm fine with it too. i hate this team The Tkachuk for Huberdeau trade killed two 110pt franchises simultaneously. ThinkTank fucked around with this message at 18:01 on Dec 16, 2022 |
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2022 17:52
|
|
|
The Devils are on a 120 point pace, good lord. Hart stood on his head, it happens. Tatar has been one of the best 5v5 players in the league this year, he's absolutely a top 6 player. Zetterlund has been very good as well, although I agree that he's more suited for a bottom 6 role at this stage of his career (solved by Palat coming back). Healthy I don't see any problems with: Tatar-Hischier-Bratt Palat-Hughes-Mercer Sharongovich-Haula-Zetterlund Wood-McLeod-Bastian Maybe you add a bottom six player or two at the deadline for injury depth because Boqvist/Holtz haven't shown enough. Jamwad Hilder posted:The Devils are still a good team, and they'll probably be fine/a playoff team, but this is pretty much what I expected would happen once they got into this part of December when I was looking at their schedule. They beat a lot of bottom feeders in October and November. I did not think they'd lose to Philly though. They're on pace for 120 points and lead the league in expected GF%, saying they'll "probably" be fine and make the playoffs is frankly ridiculous. Games they've lost since the streak ended:       The fact is they were playing at an unsustainable pace (much like the Bruins are) for any team south of the 77 Canadiens. They've been outplayed in 4 games all season (win against the Rangers, win against the Capitals, second win against the Flames, loss against the Islanders). e: Like the only reason they're not the heavy heavy favorites to win the division is because the Canes exist and are also really good. They're still extremely likely to have home ice, the favorite to win the division, and have a very reasonable shot at winning the Presidents once Boston starts their regression. https://twitter.com/ryannovo62/status/1603801326563082257 poo poo like this is a stupid overreaction though, Severson is so much better than the both of them. Good to see that Devils fans brain damage regarding Severson is seeping into management T-Bone fucked around with this message at 18:30 on Dec 16, 2022 |
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2022 18:02
|
|
|
DancingMachine posted:Since I wrote this post the Kraken are 1-5 with 13 GF 24 GA. Apologies to my fellow Seattle hockey fans for having a some hope. Truly the regression has begun. It's funny though that they're right back where they were last year where the defensive lapses and sub-average goaltending are sinking them, only now they have decent forward depth and their 5v5 numbers at least looked good enough. Hopefully they can turn it around now that the road trip is over but woof. If this continues I can only hope it ramps up the heat on Hakstol.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2022 18:51
|
|
|
FINALLY...Huberdeau and Toffoli/Lindholm are broken up. Only 25 games of horseshit experimenting to figure this out.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2022 19:04
|
|
|
.Spec posted:Truly the regression has begun. It's funny though that they're right back where they were last year where the defensive lapses and sub-average goaltending are sinking them, only now they have decent forward depth and their 5v5 numbers at least looked good enough. Hopefully they can turn it around now that the road trip is over but woof. If this continues I can only hope it ramps up the heat on Hakstol. Legitimately, he's done very little adjusting to his style of play since he was at North Dakota 15 years ago. The goal of it is to play downhill fast, then come back up high and try to cause chaos in front of the net. I'm not sure how much patience you'd have to watch old college hockey tape, but this is a really good game that shows the style with a really good line up. A bunch of players on both teams are still playing in the NHL now, so it's not just a bunch of washouts playing either. You'll see the D jump up fast on high risk breakouts, you'll see lots of stretch plays, and you'll see guys in green sweaters who can legit cycle the puck now toss it up to the point and crash the net instead of maintaining possession and finding a better shot. It worked great in college hockey against so many teams who just couldn't put up with the speed from being physically outmatched. That doesn't happen in the NHL. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ij8TLM2upA
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2022 19:38
|
|
|
DJExile posted:https://twitter.com/HabsInHighHeels/status/1603584437521973249?s=20&t=j-gnHl3V40uqwjPhpzu5dg Habs: stale piss in my pants
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2022 19:49
|
|
|
tinstaach posted:https://twitter.com/PR_NHL/status/1603782217632993280 Vrana is easing back in, Hronek is in a contact jersey, Larkin is practicing, Maatta is over his pneumonia, Fabbri will return soon... I had my "season is over" freakout and now I'm back to expecting the team to stay almost relevant.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2022 19:52
|
|
|
Seattle needs to get better goaltending but they'll fine once they start playing against the dreck in the West again. The only team that looks capable of threatening their playoff spot is Calgary, and there aren't exactly any world beaters ahead of them. Now the real interesting team lately is Washington, they are looking more and more capable of making a run. The top 7 in the East look like a lock to me, but Detroit is probably done (I wouldn't be surprised if Florida/Ottawa/Buffalo are in front of them by end of Jan) and it's starting to look more like Islanders/Washington/Florida for that last spot. That poor start and the Kuemper injury might be too much for the Caps ultimately but they look dangerous. Eric the Mauve posted:Calling it now, Ruff will be fired with the Devils in 6th place in late January SAS needs a 'toxx it bitch' button on every post T-Bone fucked around with this message at 20:13 on Dec 16, 2022 |
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2022 20:03
|
|
|
T-Bone posted:The top 7 in the East look like a lock to me, but Detroit is probably done (I wouldn't be surprised if Florida/Ottawa/Buffalo are in front of them by end of Jan) and it's starting to look more like Islanders/Washington/Florida for that last spot. I think this is exactly correct.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2022 20:08
|
|
|
T-Bone posted:Seattle needs to get better goaltending but they'll fine once they start playing against the dreck in the West again. The only team that looks capable of threatening their playoff spot is Calgary, and there aren't exactly any world beaters ahead of them. There aren't goalies enough to go around who can put up .910 s% or higher. The distribution between this year and last is down, and having two goalies sub .890 is not helping. But I still maintain that Hakstol is terrible to goalies regardless. You could take Igor and give him to Hakstol and that .930 s% would be down to under .910 in 10 games. I wouldn't be surprised if Grubauer was suddenly a .910 goalie again with a different boss behind the bench.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2022 20:14
|
|
|
I've said it before, and I'll say it again, the Panthers are not going to make the playoffs.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2022 20:23
|
|
|
I went into work today and my coworker said, “Hey, my friend got traded to the Sabres’ AHL team.” She was talking about this guy: https://twitter.com/jourdonlabarber/status/1603540822355759104?s=46&t=ej4Rpg-sjAbLuHEbNadLIQ Youngstown is near Niagara Falls. Anyway, it fits with the Sabres obsession with getting players who want to be here and all that.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2022 20:34
|
|
|
Jhet posted:There aren't goalies enough to go around who can put up .910 s% or higher. The distribution between this year and last is down, and having two goalies sub .890 is not helping. But I still maintain that Hakstol is terrible to goalies regardless. You could take Igor and give him to Hakstol and that .930 s% would be down to under .910 in 10 games. I wouldn't be surprised if Grubauer was suddenly a .910 goalie again with a different boss behind the bench. Better goalies than Grubauer have turned south at 30. It's more likely that he's never a good starter again. It's funny though that you mention Shesterkin who has dropped 15 points with the same coach and team just this year. Goalie variance is very real. Hakstol has been an above average 5v5 coach defensively his entire NHL career -- 13th league average xGA over his tenure with the Flyers (9th actual) and even last year Seattle was 11th in xGA. There's a lot of consternation in this thread about him (and coaches in general) but a lot of it I find to be conjecture. I absolutely do think coaches can lose a room (motivationally and tactically) and that NHL teams are generally right to try coaching changes to jolt their teams. I don't think there are many (or have been many) NHL coaches that provide extreme negative or positive value on their own (outside of maybe my avatar and a few others). Certainly not compared to what you can do with your roster management. Pungry posted:I've said it before, and I'll say it again, the Panthers are not going to make the playoffs. As weird as that offseason was for a 120 point team, and as mediocre as their start has been, I'd still bet on them making it right now if they keep their 5v5 play up. The last team to miss the playoffs with those kinds of 5v5 #s was the 2016-2017 Kings, it's very rare. T-Bone fucked around with this message at 20:59 on Dec 16, 2022 |
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2022 20:34
|
|
|
I think basically the whole of the top 6 of the Metro and the 4th of the Atlantic will probably come down to injuries/luck. I would put the tiers as: NJ/CAR PIT/NYR NYI/WSH FLA/DET/BUF if any key player goes down for any stretch for any of those teams, it's going to be bad and will probably lead to them missing.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2022 20:41
|
|
|
DO YALL WANT A BOXC posted:I think basically the whole of the top 6 of the Metro and the 4th of the Atlantic will probably come down to injuries/luck. I would put the tiers as: The bottom teams you mean? I think there's basically no chance Carolina and New Jersey miss. The Rangers and Penguins I'd put at like 80-85% locks at this point. Not that the Athletic is the be all or end all but I tend to agree with most of their model's takes atm:  I'd have the Rangers as a higher % (would probably bump down the Panthers/Islanders/Caps a bit as a result) and the Flames lower (bumping up LA/SEA) but that's about it. T-Bone fucked around with this message at 20:51 on Dec 16, 2022 |
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2022 20:46
|
|
|
I still can't believe they hired fuckin Paul Maurice, lol
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2022 20:50
|
|
|
mennoknight posted:FINALLY...Huberdeau and Toffoli/Lindholm are broken up. Only 25 games of horseshit experimenting to figure this out. Yeah I like the look of the new lines... It's amazing how bad the top line has been 5v5, just generating offense at an abysmal rate.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2022 20:54
|
|
|
T-Bone posted:Better goalies than Grubauer have turned south at 30. It's more likely that he's never a good starter again. I'm not sure Hakstol is a good defensive coach so much as he's a coach that has his teams grind and slow games down. While they've been above average in terms of xGA they've also been below average in xGF. Before this season he's had a single team finish above average in GF.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2022 20:57
|
|
|
Caps have already had their spin with the IR. I think they'll be mostly on the upswing. Lindgren has been excellent as a No. 2 goalie, so it might actually be a contest as to who is 1A/1B when Kuemper is back, which is supposed to be really soon. Fehervary has been skating. Wilson has been traveling and practicing with the team. They've kind of scored by committee this year so unless they lose Ovechkin, Strome or Kuzy, they'll probably be OK. I still think FLA/BUF/NYI could all beat them out for the No. 8 slot though, even when they're healthy.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2022 20:58
|
|
|
rex has been over it in fine detail but Hakstol's system is practically designed to make his goalies look bad and feel bad. If you take the models at their word then he's got nearly a decade now of good defensive teams always being let down by their lovely goaltenders.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2022 21:00
|
|
|
SilvergunSuperman posted:I still can't believe they hired fuckin Paul Maurice, lol Brunnette got out-coached pretty bad in the playoffs last year, but it was by Jon Cooper and a meat grinder of a Lightning team in the 2nd round He’s in charge of the Devils powerplay this year which is pretty mediocre for all the talent they have, so maybe the Panthers hiring a new guy was a good idea. Dunno why they chose a coach who lost the locker room so bad at his last job that he quit mid-season lol
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2022 21:04
|
|
|
The Dirty Burger posted:Brunnette got out-coached pretty bad in the playoffs last year, but it was by Jon Cooper and a meat grinder of a Lightning team in the 2nd round The Panthers PP was horrendous in the playoffs, weird choice of guy to hire as a PP coach!
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2022 21:09
|
|
|
NJ would have to completely implode in hilarious fashion to miss at this point (so I hope it happens) mediocre line decisions aside I think the Rangers are kinda turning a corner here but it's been a weird season. I wish I could say they're turning the corner with some great play but it's been more like "good enough to win" play.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2022 21:09
|
|
|
Eric the Mauve posted:Calling it now, Ruff will be fired with the Devils in 6th place in late January Finally, vindication for the two guys who grumbled and sat in their seats with their arms folded (because those guys definitely exist) while every other devil fan rose up and shouted "we're sorry lindy" or whatever they said We always knew those guys would be rewarded eventually
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2022 21:09
|
|
|
Eric the Mauve posted:rex has been over it in fine detail but Hakstol's system is practically designed to make his goalies look bad and feel bad. If you take the models at their word then he's got nearly a decade now of good defensive teams always being let down by their lovely goaltenders. The only place his goaltenders let him down in Philly was on the PK. 5v5 they actually outperformed their xGA (sometimes significantly, like in his first season). But yeah I find most of what rex posts on coaching to be conjecture, so not surprising. Darude - Adam Sandstorm posted:I'm not sure Hakstol is a good defensive coach so much as he's a coach that has his teams grind and slow games down. This is absolutely a hallmark of a solid defensive coach. Not every team has the personnel to play high octane offense with suppression like the Bruins and Devils are this year. I would probably agree that Hakstol isn't the best coach for a team that wants to score a lot, but I also haven't seen him with that kind of roster (the Flyers had been a bottom 15 team in scoring the previous three years before Hakstol got there for instance). T-Bone fucked around with this message at 21:14 on Dec 16, 2022 |
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2022 21:10
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 3, 2024 18:12 |
|
|
T-Bone posted:Better goalies than Grubauer have turned south at 30. It's more likely that he's never a good starter again. Coaches definitely lose a room, but with Hakstol it's not that here. For me it's down to how they breakout and the rotation in the o-zone. You can have a xGA of 2nd right now, but if your actual GA/G has you sitting in 20th, you can't just blame the goalies which is what a lot of people do. (Last years was 4th xGA, but 24th actual GA/G). They're playing better in the o-zone this year which is nice to see, but defensively they've been mostly the same because that's the system. Borgen-Soucy are typically a lot better at making those decisions to jump into play with support, but the other pairs are not so good with the decision making. You could change who's playing, but that doesn't solve the problem of the system expecting them to jump fast up ice, or the system wanting them to frequently shoot from the points. Making adjustments to the system will change that. Hakstol has shown that he's stuck with his system, and I don't expect him to change it at this point. So what other options are there? They've shown they're not changing the d-zone system. The first pairing is as big a problem in that system as the third pairing. You can't change all of the players, and Philly had the same issues and that's all different players. So it's down to it being a coaching problem. I wouldn't suggest really watching a lot of tape on it, it's not worth the time unless you really want to dig into the Kraken for some reason. But the players are still bought into the system. The play fast break hockey and frequently fly the zone early to try to score on the transition. Even with the win streak and Jones playing relatively well, he's under .890 for the year. They'll just keep getting punished for their D-zone structure/breakouts until it changes.
|
|
#
?
Dec 16, 2022 21:11
|
|