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Hand Row
May 28, 2001

Grey Area posted:

Poland has probably determined that the immediate threat of Russian invasion is miniscule, so it's fine to give their old tanks to Ukraine immediately and risk having an under strength tank force for a couple of years while the K2s come in from Korea and HSW gets set up to build more.

And they get paid for getting rid of all their inventory to help fund the new stuff.

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Ynglaur
Oct 9, 2013

The Malta Conference, anyone?

You must be in the Navy. The Navy loves this idea.

Antigravitas posted:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyranger_30

That is where things are probably going right now. Especially the HEL variant. A laser effector would probably be much more effective against smaller drones than previous attempts to use them against other military targets.

I agree. The maker of the JLTV released a prototype JLTV with a 20mm in an unmanned turret.

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Small housekeeping update for the thread – I have resigned from being a D&D moderator.

Thanks for moderating this thread for so long!

Cicero
Dec 17, 2003

Jumpjet, melta, jumpjet. Repeat for ten minutes or until victory is assured.

Ynglaur posted:

You must be in the Navy. The Navy loves this idea.
The army is deploying laser Strykers literally this month.

Edit: god it sounds like something from Red Alert

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost

Antigravitas posted:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyranger_30

That is where things are probably going right now. Especially the HEL variant. A laser effector would probably be much more effective against smaller drones than previous attempts to use them against other military targets.

The US is going with a few different systems. FS-LIDS is already the fixed system of record. Mix of interceptors (sort of behave like fast drones that hunt down and kill other drones) and EW plus a lot of awareness/detection systems.
FS-LIDS diagram:


M-LIDS is the mobile version. It is now two vehicles on MATVs, and is planned to be combined into one vehicle on a Stryker chassis. Division Asset / special-assignment like forward bases, etc.
Two-vehicle version. Already fielded, has been operational for a few years and used in combat.


Protoype one-vehicle version:


IFPC is a larger, less mobile system made more for defending divisional HQs and support areas. Moveable, but trailer/truck-based system. Counter-UAS, cruise missiles, rockets, artillery, mortar.


M-SHORAD: short-range air defense that has UAS capability, but also capability vs helicopters, low-flying jets, etc. Stryker-based system. Basically in constant increment update as they fielded a prototype platoon to Europe a few years ago and have been undergoing updates and changes based on field training, live fires, exercises, and technology maturation.


Directed Energy (DE) M-SHORAD : Stryker-based laser system.


HPM: High-powered microwave systems for C-UAS. Being integrated as part of the divisional C-UAS systems.


The other services have some of their own stuff, like the USAF testing energy weapons as part of the Air Force Research Lab efforts. And Marines have L-MADIS. L-MADIS has been used operationally to down drones, most notably while aboard a ship in the Arabian / Persian Gulf.
L-MADIS:

mlmp08 fucked around with this message at 20:20 on Jan 28, 2023

Cicero
Dec 17, 2003

Jumpjet, melta, jumpjet. Repeat for ten minutes or until victory is assured.
The sheer numbers of weapons systems the US military has deployed or in development at any one time is insane.

Blut
Sep 11, 2009

if someone is in the bottom 10%~ of a guillotine

Thats a pro-read, some really interesting stuff in it. This is also cute:

quote:

Just days before Milley visited the base, Ukrainians traveled to the Poland facility for parts. The visit gave U.S. soldiers a chance to meet someone from their chatrooms face-to-face and swap military patches.

“In the next video chat we had he was wearing our patches in his video,” the U.S. soldier said.

TK-42-1
Oct 30, 2013

looks like we have a bad transmitter



spankmeister posted:

Oh god no, Elon Musk is even worse than Ted Faro.

I hate that musk has become synonymous with autonomous.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Blut posted:

Thats a pro-read, some really interesting stuff in it. This is also cute:

It’s quite good indeed, e.g.:

quote:

“A lot of the times we’ll get calls from right there on the firing line, so there’ll be outgoing or incoming fire at the same time you’re trying to help the forward maintainers troubleshoot the best they can,” said a U.S. soldier who is part of the maintenance team. Sometimes, he said, the chat has to wait a bit until troops can get to a safer location.

A key problem, said one officer, is that Ukrainian troops are pushing the weapons to their limits — firing them at unprecedented rates and using them long after a U.S. service member would turn them in to be repaired or retired.

Holding up his tablet, the U.S. soldier showed photos of the barrel of a howitzer, its interior ridges nearly worn completely away.

“They’re using these systems in ways that we didn’t necessarily anticipate,” said the officer, pointing to the tablet. “We’re actually learning from them by seeing how much abuse these weapon systems can take, and where’s the breaking point.”

This repeats a piece I’ve read several weeks ago, that French Caesar pieces were almost all grounded waiting for new barrels - completely worn out in days of the real-world fire intensity in Ukraine.

Libluini
May 18, 2012

I gravitated towards the Greens, eventually even joining the party itself.

The Linke is a party I grudgingly accept exists, but I've learned enough about DDR-history I can't bring myself to trust a party that was once the SED, a party leading the corrupt state apparatus ...
Grimey Drawer

cinci zoo sniper posted:

It’s quite good indeed, e.g.:

This repeats a piece I’ve read several weeks ago, that French Caesar pieces were almost all grounded waiting for new barrels - completely worn out in days of the real-world fire intensity in Ukraine.

Remember, the same thing happened to PzH2000-artillery: There were even reports of software errors, possibly because the software sometimes couldn't deal with someone exceeding the 100 shots per day the original designers had planned for. Because in testing, no-one ever had shot the thing that many times, so this wasn't discovered until they were used in a real war.

kemikalkadet
Sep 16, 2012

:woof:

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Small housekeeping update for the thread – I have resigned from being a D&D moderator.

Thanks for keeping this thread one of the most level-headed places to chat about the Ukraine conflict on the net.


Paladinus posted:


There are also some something else going on at the same time on the other side of political spectrum. Coincidence or not, but Igor Strelkov (Girkin), is under friendly fire from the most visible far right personalities in Russia. Strelkov says he wanted to give another try joining the military, and that Wagner promised to accept him, but at the last minute he decided against it due to potentially hostile work environment. Rogozin, Milonov, and even Prigozhin himself in unison call him a coward and a liar, doubting his military credentials and how involved he really was in conflicts in Bosnia, Moldova, and Ukraine. Some selected quotes below





Previously I theorised that Strelkov's apparent untouchability, despite his sharp criticisms of the high command and Putin himself, was due to Kremlin's understanding that he was the only voice the far right 'patriots' listened to, and Strelkov was used to vent their frustration about Russia's military failures, while maintaining overall support of the war. Now that Prigozhin, who is Putin's close friend, has established himself in a similar role (sans criticising Putin), Strelkov might actually be in trouble. Case in point, Moskovskij Komsomolets's tabloidy headline for the story is 'Prigozhin DESTROYS Strelkov With One Sentence', and the article is full of barbs about Strelkov's critical view of Putin.

https://www.mk.ru/politics/2023/01/27/prigozhin-unichtozhil-strelkova-odnim-predlozheniem.html

What has Girkin been up to lately? I think the last time I heard anything from him he had just announced he was going to the front and posted a picture of himself standing at a motorway junction. Don't think i've seen any of his blog postings or similar since and honestly I'd forgotten about him until just now.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

NTRabbit posted:

Given the posts on the last couple of pages I wasn't entirely sure the joke was intentional

Well it was a pretty wry observational 'joke', so don't worry! But I do think it's an interesting example, when talking about corruption (in Russia), that Ukrainians were able to execute such a shameless attack on the bridge. Russians said the truck bomb made its way all around the Black Sea region - which begs the question, how is that possible?

Now of course the Russian official version is likely bullshit, so we don't know where the explosives really came from. But whether they came from out of Russia or from within, it does sound like something that can only happen in a country where you can bribe just about anyone to look the other way. Unless we are to believe that Ukrainians were trying this every week and only this one time they got lucky and weren't caught...

As for Ukrainian arms black market I think that there are much more guns available that were either distributed to civilians by the government in the early stages, or weapons salvaged from the battlefields after the retreat from Kyiv direction. Pistols, assault rifles, machine guns and hand grenades are also the most marketable goods in general, and easier to conceal than a Javelin.

We can also speculate what the consequences of Ukraine falling into total chaos and Russian occupation would have been like. My understanding is that it would have been similar to Iraq in 2003, with entire weapons stashes being lost in mysterious ways.

Nenonen fucked around with this message at 21:47 on Jan 28, 2023

Charlotte Hornets
Dec 30, 2011

by Fritz the Horse
Most guns gone astray probably go to the inner black market. That is many of the "army" branches compete for scarce resources. So there's probably same trade there eg one unit doesn't have enough machine guns but the other side has plenty of them or they captured a lot etc. So to avoid slow bureaucracy which makes "legal" transfers take months they just steal and trade with each other. Some units aren't given Javelins but they still want to do cowboy poo poo at the front make it happen via the black market.

Charlotte Hornets fucked around with this message at 21:56 on Jan 28, 2023

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

kemikalkadet posted:

Thanks for keeping this thread one of the most level-headed places to chat about the Ukraine conflict on the net.

What has Girkin been up to lately? I think the last time I heard anything from him he had just announced he was going to the front and posted a picture of himself standing at a motorway junction. Don't think i've seen any of his blog postings or similar since and honestly I'd forgotten about him until just now.

He quickly came back the first time. He explained that nobody there took him seriously, and the unit he was sent to didn't even expect his arrival. That's what he says at the very least. After that he was doing his usual blogging, calling everyone an incompetent traitor, and basically promising a crushing defeat to Russia if things go on the way they're going right now. It was just more of the same, mostly his reactions to overly optimistic predictions of other 'military experts' or to the news of new military aid packages to Ukraine. Then that new Wagner opportunity materialised, and drama ensued.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
I didn't know Wagner accepted Dutch convictions of murder as employment qualifications.

Keisari
May 24, 2011

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Small housekeeping update for the thread – I have resigned from being a D&D moderator.

I was wondering how the hell one can have the energy and motivation to keep up with all the poo poo goons do, AND collate news regularly. Thanks, you made the thread a better read, and I understand & appreciate that you invested a lot of time doing this. (Over the year, as poo poo occasionally got REALLY hectic)

Edit: gently caress, this conflict has soon lasted a year. What a horrible milestone.

Mederlock
Jun 23, 2012

You won't recognize Canada when I'm through with it
Grimey Drawer

Keisari posted:


Edit: gently caress, this conflict has soon lasted a year. What a horrible milestone.

And unfortunately.. it looks like there's speculation Putin may be looking to 'celebrate' the occasion by doing some sort of Anniversary offensive/attack

https://youtu.be/lxV5jEWAs8k

Budzilla
Oct 14, 2007

We can all learn from our past mistakes.

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Small housekeeping update for the thread – I have resigned from being a D&D moderator.

With your free time you should watch a few Perun videos.

Somaen
Nov 19, 2007

by vyelkin

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Small housekeeping update for the thread – I have resigned from being a D&D moderator.

Thank you for maintaining this thread good and informative through the full year of this nightmare and keeping in check the type of Americans that Zadornov warned us about

For :unsmith: (mostly) content

https://mobile.twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1619358009301295104

tehinternet
Feb 14, 2005

Semantically, "you" is both singular and plural, though syntactically it is always plural. It always takes a verb form that originally marked the word as plural.

Also, there is no plural when the context is an argument with an individual rather than a group. Somfin shouldn't put words in my mouth.

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Small housekeeping update for the thread – I have resigned from being a D&D moderator.

Didn’t always agree with your decisions but you were solid. Respect the time and effort you put in, friend.

coelomate
Oct 21, 2020


cinci zoo sniper posted:

Small housekeeping update for the thread – I have resigned from being a D&D moderator.

Appreciated everything you did for this thread since the day the war started. Thank you.

ought ten
Feb 6, 2004

Low confidence but there are OSINT type reports right now that someone hit a Shahed drone factory in Iran.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Small housekeeping update for the thread – I have resigned from being a D&D moderator.
Whoa, thank you for your service! I'm not even at all mad about the half dozen probes :D

ought ten posted:

Low confidence but there are OSINT type reports right now that someone hit a Shahed drone factory in Iran.
Someone posted in teh GBS thread that Russia/Iran are already whining about "NATO-linked" country being involved. Pretty safe bet it's Israel I think, they've been bombing the drone factories for a while, though if it's really in the country that's certainly a step above the usual

mobby_6kl fucked around with this message at 01:53 on Jan 29, 2023

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Thanks again everyone, I’m starting to get low-key smitten by all this praise. It’s been a ride to remember for me for sure.

ought ten posted:

Low confidence but there are OSINT type reports right now that someone hit a Shahed drone factory in Iran.

Does it help your confidence if it’s OSINT types and WSJ? https://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-ammunition-factory-hit-by-blast-11674951968

That said, WSJ doesn’t further specify that it’s a Shahed factory - just that it’s an ammo plant.

Edit: Skimming around, Shahed claim specifically originates from Twitter OSINT accounts.

cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 02:02 on Jan 29, 2023

coelomate
Oct 21, 2020


I can't find solid news sources beyond the already linked articles with Iran stating they thwarted one drone attack on one target. But twitter/reddit/etc. are full of pictures of explosions and fires at multiple (7?) sites inside Iran.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




coelomate posted:

I can't find solid news sources beyond the already linked articles with Iran stating they thwarted one drone attack on one target. But twitter/reddit/etc. are full of pictures of explosions and fires at multiple (7?) sites inside Iran.

There were 4, supposedly, drones attacking the factory, and an unspecified number of explosions at a refinery elsewhere. Could it be that the videos you’re seeing are just summarising these two sites with like shot drone crashes and so on?

RockWhisperer
Oct 26, 2018
Cincy, I've been lurking since April and wanted to say thank you. The moderation was appreciated and kept this thread level-headed unlike so many other places on the internet.

Ne Cede Malis
Aug 30, 2008
Unironically thanks for your work on the thread!

Rappaport
Oct 2, 2013

Thanks for all the work keeping this thread readable and informative, cinci :unsmith:

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




:patriot:

:nms: (video is fine, just don't scroll into any other posts, the server aggregates combat footage) https://t.me/milinfolive/96084 Russians were using some Tornado-S on the January 26 airstrikes, it seems, which is what got mistaken for Iranian ballistic rockets by some (key difference, seen on video - stabilizing parachute on the projectile). It's a fancy, recent rocket artillery system with 120 km range.

PC LOAD LETTER
May 23, 2005
WTF?!

Cicero posted:

The sheer numbers of weapons systems the US military has deployed or in development at any one time is insane.

So do the Russians and Chinese. Igla, Buk, S-200, S-300, S-400, Pantsir, Tor, and probably a bunch of stuff I don't know about. And have for decades since they didn't think they could rely on air to protect their ground forces like NATO or the US did.

The US and NATO realized years ago (mid-ish 2000's? I think) that newer AD and EW were going to get good enough (and be proliferated widely enough) to really put their air forces into quite a bit of danger and began to put in plans that they'd need to do something similar for their ground forces.

The goal with all these systems is to create a "defense onion" where you have multiple systems that can defend against different attacks. Its a layered approach that generally has been shown to work well. The problem with it is that it can get expensive and needs lots of specialized and well trained personnel to be effective. But everything is a trade off and its better then 'accepting' high casualties.

Fritz the Horse
Dec 26, 2019

... of course!
You'll never guess who we found to replace cinci!!

I'm joking, thanks for putting in a ton of time and effort dude.

We'll likely be reaching out to a couple people in the near future about helping IK this thread. In the meantime, please stick to the general standards and rules that czs established. You're welcome to PM me any ideas/suggestions/complaints and do please continue to report posts that break the thread rules. Or Koos of course, though I don't believe he follows this thread much.

Staluigi
Jun 22, 2021

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Small housekeeping update for the thread – I have resigned from being a D&D moderator.

almost impossible job of keeping the subject matter on rails and not fuckshitted to hell, especially given how badly it could have gone / how contentious the subject matter is and what kind of attention it attracted / all the weird poo poo that was coming to a head at the same time on the forum / etc and i dont want to know how it would have gone otherwise

but now my "user remotely detonated" thing is a relic of the past :(

BabyFur Denny
Mar 18, 2003

Electric Wrigglies posted:

It is a good list but slightly OCD triggering that the German order of model are in reverse to the other countries.

They are sorted the exact same way, first all models with precise numbers ascending, then all models where they just have an estimate of the inventory.

Dr Cheesequake
Dec 23, 2008

I dream of humans and goblins co-existing peacefully

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Small housekeeping update for the thread – I have resigned from being a D&D moderator.

Thank you for everything that you did for the past year, Cinci. I’ve read this thread almost daily since late February of last year. Your moderation has kept it one of the best sources of information on the war.

sniper4625
Sep 26, 2009

Loyal to the hEnd
Echoing all the above, and crazy to think it's almost been a year of this.

Rinkles
Oct 24, 2010

What I'm getting at is...
Do you feel the same way?

sniper4625 posted:

Echoing all the above, and crazy to think it's almost been a year of this.

And no end in sight

Hannibal Rex
Feb 13, 2010
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/german-dithering-has-cost-ukrainian-lives/

Jack Watling doesn't mince words.

quote:

Thanks to the obstructionism and incompetence of the German government, Ukraine has ended up with the worst of the positive outcomes available. Rather than receiving a large number of a single type of tank they are receiving three different Nato-designed tanks, all in limited numbers and each with separate, complex maintenance requirements. This will delay getting these tanks to the front lines. And this is after Ukraine’s partners squandered three months deciding whether or not to send tanks at all. It is unlikely to be forgotten in Kyiv that Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s pointless prevarication has and will continue to cost Ukrainian lives.
Also a good assessment on what to expect in the next few months:

quote:

Given the time it will take for newly pledged equipment to have an effect, it must be understood that the next few months of fighting are going to be hard. The Russians are massing airborne troops in Luhansk and armoured units to the South, while Wagner continues to assault Bakhmut. General Gerasimov, now directly running operations in Ukraine, is pushing for offensive operations to try and draw Ukraine’s reserves into defensive fighting and therefore remove their ability to prepare for offensive operations. The Russians are hoping that if they bleed out Ukraine’s better units now they will hold onto the territory they have seized. For the next couple of months at least Ukraine must avoid these threats with the equipment it already fields. 

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Small housekeeping update for the thread – I have resigned from being a D&D moderator.

Just in time for the Russo-Iranian Clancychat to commence!

Sekenr
Dec 12, 2013




Paladinus posted:

As you might know, one of the biggest independent Russian-language news media, Meduza, is now not just a foreign agent, but also an 'undesirable organisation'. This means that as much as sharing a link to one of their articles is a crime (a fine for the first offence, and real jail time for future offences). The same goes for donating to them, providing any comments to their journalists, and, of course, working for them. This is very similar to how Lukashenko handled TUT (now Zerkalo) in Belarus. You can in theory just read them on telegram or access their website using VPN, but if the police get on your case, they can always send a bunch of links from your phone and get you behind bars regardless. Just another fear tactic, but the one that has proved its effectiveness to an extent.

https://meduza.io/en/news/2023/01/26/russia-has-outlawed-meduza

There are also some something else going on at the same time on the other side of political spectrum. Coincidence or not, but Igor Strelkov (Girkin), is under friendly fire from the most visible far right personalities in Russia. Strelkov says he wanted to give another try joining the military, and that Wagner promised to accept him, but at the last minute he decided against it due to potentially hostile work environment. Rogozin, Milonov, and even Prigozhin himself in unison call him a coward and a liar, doubting his military credentials and how involved he really was in conflicts in Bosnia, Moldova, and Ukraine. Some selected quotes below





Previously I theorised that Strelkov's apparent untouchability, despite his sharp criticisms of the high command and Putin himself, was due to Kremlin's understanding that he was the only voice the far right 'patriots' listened to, and Strelkov was used to vent their frustration about Russia's military failures, while maintaining overall support of the war. Now that Prigozhin, who is Putin's close friend, has established himself in a similar role (sans criticising Putin), Strelkov might actually be in trouble. Case in point, Moskovskij Komsomolets's tabloidy headline for the story is 'Prigozhin DESTROYS Strelkov With One Sentence', and the article is full of barbs about Strelkov's critical view of Putin.

https://www.mk.ru/politics/2023/01/27/prigozhin-unichtozhil-strelkova-odnim-predlozheniem.html

My feeling about Strelkov was that he wasn't a voice of only the far right, but sort of the voice of LDNR troops on the ground and perhaps the russian army too (lots of calls for reinforcements that he broadcasted when they felt normal military channels don't work).

So his apparent humiliation means IMO that russian military are ordered to take the bitchslap and stop complaining in public. Prigozhin has access to Putin while the MoD don't. Shoygu is a Putin's man, not a military man. His job is to route Putin's orders and frustrations to the generals, not the other way around.

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:

Jack Watling doesn't seem to (want to) grasp that the only operator that can spare a single platform in the required quantities is the USA.

Which is, of course, par for the course for the Spectator.

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Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

Sekenr posted:

My feeling about Strelkov was that he wasn't a voice of only the far right, but sort of the voice of LDNR troops on the ground and perhaps the russian army too (lots of calls for reinforcements that he broadcasted when they felt normal military channels don't work).

So his apparent humiliation means IMO that russian military are ordered to take the bitchslap and stop complaining in public. Prigozhin has access to Putin while the MoD don't. Shoygu is a Putin's man, not a military man. His job is to route Putin's orders and frustrations to the generals, not the other way around.

Doesn't seem like a coincidence that shortly after a power struggle between Shoigu and Prigozhin (of which Shoigu clearly came out on top, of which there probably was little question of) now there's a coordinated effort to discredit or marginalize Strelkov while Prigozhin is once again being allowed back into the fold and he appears to be playing ball again?

Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 10:14 on Jan 29, 2023

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