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I do wonder how much leverage China has with Russia. Theoretically, it should be quite a lot. Russia depends a lot on trade with China, but the reverse isn't nearly as true. And internationally, China could imo easily supplant Russia as the rational power block to associate with for nations that are or were flirting with Russia. (Looking mainly at Africa here) On the other hand, economic and diplomatic damage are clearly not much of a consideration for Russia, so China may not actually be able to do much to get that thorn out of their side.
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Feb 13, 2023 14:54
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On China and Russia, let’s not forget the article posted about a month ago that the two countries are in an agreement to coordinate their domestic and foreign-facing propaganda messaging. That’s pretty heavy alignment.
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Feb 13, 2023 14:56
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Moonslayer - The part you bolded--"I could say that Europe had outsourced its security needs to Americans, its energy needs to the Russians and its economic needs to China. And now we have to figure out how to correct this."--really synthesized a lot of what I've partially understood but have not been able to articulate. Thanks for quoting it.
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Feb 13, 2023 14:57
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Glad it helped! As long as we're calling out good lines, this:Slashrat posted:[China] considers Taiwan a part of China that is just temporarily exerting an excess of autonomy. got a good laugh out of me.
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Feb 13, 2023 15:33
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Slashrat posted:I'm not super-familiar with the details of Chinese foreign policy, so it's quite possible I'm oversimplifying it maybe. It largely is the same argument used by the Russians. Ie X country/territory has been traditionally part of Y since Z time, ergo we are one people and have sovereignty over X and this is really none of your business. The details differ but the line of thinking remains the same.
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Feb 13, 2023 15:40
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As someone who grew up with both Ukrainians and Russians at my dinner table yelling angrily at each other in their native tongues (mostly Russian) the whole "Orcs vs Nazis" dehumanization poo poo is just baffling to me. I got a Russian step-mother and Ukrainian step-siblings who are now feuding over this poo poo but they're literally from the same family and grew up mostly in Kyiv/Kiev. This whole war is just baffling to me. It only makes sense in some weird alt-reality videogame inside Putin's head where the other 40 million Ukrainians who ain't feeling particularly Russian come around to his point of view.
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Feb 13, 2023 15:49
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MikeC posted:It largely is the same argument used by the Russians. Ie X country/territory has been traditionally part of Y since Z time, ergo we are one people and have sovereignty over X and this is really none of your business. The details differ but the line of thinking remains the same. The significant difference is that as far as both China's' official rhetoric goes, their conflict is one of an intra-state nature, they don't recognize each other as separate countries. Meanwhile Russia does recognize Ukraine and its sovereignty, so from a strictly technical standpoint China can claim that Russia is violating international norms while China is just having an internal dispute. The situation in Ukraine would be more akin to China attacking Mongolia after a century of relinquished claims.
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Feb 13, 2023 16:09
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Discendo Vox posted:On China and Russia, let’s not forget the article posted about a month ago that the two countries are in an agreement to coordinate their domestic and foreign-facing propaganda messaging. That’s pretty heavy alignment. For general media literacy purposes, it might be helpful if you, or indeed anyone posting things such as this, linked to the article they wished remembered, since this thread even among the furor of D&D has a lot of links posted. Just as a reminder. Thank you!
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Feb 13, 2023 16:37
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Hungary decided its a good time for their foreign minister to visit Minsk https://twitter.com/laurbjn/status/1625162679793885184?s=20&t=LIea49Di0whGQ0Q1LvB6LQ
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Feb 13, 2023 17:01
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Sekenr posted:Hungary decided its a good time for their foreign minister to visit Minsk They are going to see what Hungary's gonna be like in ten years
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Feb 13, 2023 17:20
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Moon Slayer posted:Washington Post's morning world newsletter has an interview with the Austrian foreign minister. Bolding mine: Seconding the thanks, this guy is really well spoken. I hope his optimism about the EU proves true.
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Feb 13, 2023 18:23
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steinrokkan posted:They are going to see what Hungary's gonna be like in ten years Nah, a lot of international business is still happy to invest in Hungary. Probably Orban makes it even better, as you just have to pay bribes on time and not worry about anything else.
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Feb 13, 2023 18:29
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Good rhetoric from the Austrian Foreign Minister - but I was a bit surprised as I had thought Austria was one of the more wobbly EU countries on Russia. Maybe I was confusing their strict military neutrality for wider unwillingness to act.
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Feb 13, 2023 18:41
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Tigey posted:Good rhetoric from the Austrian Foreign Minister - but I was a bit surprised as I had thought Austria was one of the more wobbly EU countries on Russia. Maybe I was confusing their strict military neutrality for wider unwillingness to act. There were some Russian money concerns regarding sanctions support that Austria were against (for instance, they were one of the opponents for gas and oil sanctions earlier on). However, by and large this has ever been a problem of individual Austrian politicians, and the nation on the whole is doing its part. 
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Feb 13, 2023 18:48
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Austria is constitutionally bound to remain neutral, that’s true (although nobody seems to agree on what still counts as neutrality and what doesn’t). It has long been identified by Russia as an open gate into the EU, however, meaning that not only they compromised Austrian intelligence services to a degree that other agencies stopped sharing intel with them, but also that politicians pretty much across the board held close and often very lucrative ties to the Kremlin, e.g. former social democrat chancellor Alfred Gusenbauer who used to work for the pro-Yanukovich Hapsburg Group (which was in turn established by Paul Manafort), former social democrat chancellor Christian Kern who went on to become a member of the Russian state railway‘s supervisory board (although he resigned from that position after the invasion, to be fair), former conservative chancellor Wolfgang Schüssel who was in Lukoil‘s board of directors until the invasion as well and of course the right-wing FPÖ who had or has very close ties to Russia across the board, culminating in the FPÖ foreign minister Karin Kneissl literally kneeling in front of Putin who she had invited as an ostensible private guest of honour to her wedding. The list could go on, so while I don’t want to say that Austria is a Kremlin-controlled puppet or anything (it isn’t) there is also a long tradition of Russian meddling in its affairs with Austrian politicians for the longest time not only tolerating it but directly profiting off of it. This also gets mirrored in a smaller than average support for Ukraine expressed in the general population - a survey from last December found that only 60% of Austrians approved of European support for Ukraine compared to 74% EU-wide. Austria is also still strongly dependent on Russian gas and has shown very few signs of intending to change that. That said, the majority of Austrians is still very much pro-Ukraine and I think or hope that the country’s political elite have also wisened up to the dangers of Russian influence. Let’s see how they will continue to act.
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Feb 13, 2023 19:05
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Deltasquid posted:Considering the history of China, the PRC still considers Taiwan to be a part of China that is temporarily occupied by the illegitimate regime the PRC ousted. It's the same reason why, initially, Taiwan still claimed sovereignty over the entirety of (in their eyes, occupied by an illegitimate rebel group) continental China but also parts of Mongolia etc. which were part of the Chinese state way back in the interbellum. It's a fairly recent development in Taiwanese society that they started considering themselves a separate nation rather than a government in exile that one day wishes to resume control over the mainland. Also worth noting that: 1) plenty of taiwanese used to support unification with the PRC, until they got a little visit from the security services, and were never to be heard from again; 2) contrary to the ukraine-situation, the international community has been very ambivalent on taiwan's independent status since the nationalists were defeated. As far as discussions about sovereignity and territorial waters are concerned, there actually could be some convergence of russo-chinese talking points, as both the russian SMO and chinese island-building are considered to be legitimate countermeasures against US encroachment.
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Feb 13, 2023 19:11
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saratoga posted:The ground attack drones I've seen tend take 2-3 seconds (assuming the video is real time) to drop stuff on the ground. That's 50-150ft up, which is close enough that you could hit it with small arms if you knew where it was. I could eventually see something like a smartphone with an app that you point at the sky and it buzzes if something flies overhead and then starts hovering. Then you shoot at it. If all you need is defense against assholes hanging grenades from DJI phantoms all you need is a guy standing watch with a decent thermal monocular.
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Feb 13, 2023 19:21
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persopolis posted:Also worth noting that: The PRC brutally crushing Hong Kong has had far more to do with Taiwanese support for unification dropping off a cliff than anything else. Its been a very clear lesson in potential future outcomes.
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Feb 13, 2023 19:21
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Taiwan's support for unification is also very much straified by age and generation, younger people want nothing to do with joining up with China proper because there is 0 memory at all of the PRC being anything but an antagonist power seeking to invade whenever it would seem geopolitically feasible which combined with the blatant lie of one country, two systems in Hong Kong. Similar thing in South Korea with regards to unification.
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Feb 13, 2023 19:25
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Somewhat thread relevant: https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2023/02/netherlands-to-integrate-last-brigade-into-german-army-this-year-nrc/ The entire Dutch army has now been integrated into the Bundeswehr. The Dutch government still retains final say in deploying them, but organizationally they would fight as part of the German military. The attack on Ukraine greatly accelerated the integration process.
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Feb 13, 2023 19:27
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U.S. Embassy in Russia has posted the third “get out” warning. Last 2 were in February and September (mobilization). https://ru.usembassy.gov/travel-advisory-russia-do-not-travel-february-12-2023/GABA ghoul posted:Somewhat thread relevant: Convenient to include a photo of the entire Dutch army.
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Feb 13, 2023 19:28
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Blut posted:The PRC brutally crushing Hong Kong has had far more to do with Taiwanese support for unification dropping off a cliff than anything else. Its been a very clear lesson in potential future outcomes. According to a recent study, still only 30 % of the population suppports full independence, so who really knows what the future holds.
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Feb 13, 2023 19:29
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Satellite images of the aftermath of the fighting around Vuhledar are out. Both sides shot of a LOT of artillery, but the Russian attacks got smashed, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yn1w7GJKMbA
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Feb 13, 2023 19:29
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persopolis posted:According to a recent study, still only 30 % of the population suppports full independence, so who really knows what the future holds. It's 60% if you combine the 30% for 'full independence now, even if China declares war' and the 'maintain status quo but keep moving towards independence without triggering a war' 30%. Unification is at 1%. e: hell if you throw in the 30% who answer 'I would like the status quo of de-facto independence to continue forever' then really Taiwan sovereignty sits at 90%. Alchenar fucked around with this message at 19:41 on Feb 13, 2023 |
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Feb 13, 2023 19:38
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Yeah, reunification, either as the KMT triumphantly riding back to glory on the back of the failed Communist state or as joining under the wing of one China is very much a Boomer thing at best. The gently caress does the current generation care about the glory days of the past when we've been doing our own thing as long as we can remember?persopolis posted:According to a recent study, still only 30 % of the population suppports full independence, so who really knows what the future holds. That would be because everyone is painfully aware that the consequences of declaring full independence almost certainly involves the Chinese military getting involved one way or another. In that light, 30% support is startlingly high. The majority opinion as far as I know is "try to keep things going, don't rock the boat, don't give the mainlanders an excuse to invade but keep being de facto independent." That might start changing the more it looks like China might invade whatever we do though - and NOT in favor of unification. But this is admittedly something of a derail and is probably only really relevant as a bit of an insight into what a smaller nation with a large, hostile neighbor with claims on it might think and do: Pragmatism with a certain degree of exasperated "Oh go gently caress yourself and leave us alone already" that gets louder and louder when pragmatism is no longer a good way of keeping the peace.
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Feb 13, 2023 19:41
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According to our news, Sandu says that Russia is planning a coup in Moldova. https://www.lsm.lv/raksts/zinas/arzemes/moldovas-prezidente-bridina-par-krievijas-planotu-valsts-apversumu.a496187/
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Feb 13, 2023 19:41
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Moon Slayer posted:Washington Post's morning world newsletter has an interview with the Austrian foreign minister. Bolding mine: Tigey posted:Good rhetoric from the Austrian Foreign Minister - but I was a bit surprised as I had thought Austria was one of the more wobbly EU countries on Russia. Maybe I was confusing their strict military neutrality for wider unwillingness to act. How noble of Austria to say such pretty words and than dial up russian gas purchases to prewar levels. https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/austria-slides-back-into-dependence-on-russian-gas/ Sekenr fucked around with this message at 19:50 on Feb 13, 2023 |
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Feb 13, 2023 19:48
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ChaseSP posted:Taiwan's support for unification is also very much straified by age and generation, younger people want nothing to do with joining up with China proper because there is 0 memory at all of the PRC being anything but an antagonist power seeking to invade whenever it would seem geopolitically feasible which combined with the blatant lie of one country, two systems in Hong Kong. Similar thing in South Korea with regards to unification. It's also highly regional. If you're going to find any pro-reunification sentiment it's primarily going to be in Taipei and environs. As soon as you get just a little ways south or into the countryside you aren't going to find too many people excited about China in general because the native Taiwanese ("native" in this case meaning decedents of southern Chinese ethnic groups that migrated around 500 years ago) saw the KMT as invaders and the KMT didn't do much to disabuse them of that.
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Feb 13, 2023 19:50
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https://www.ft.com/content/3d3c9102-b8ef-4b1c-a8dc-6c844de71981 This makes Ukraine/NATO's ammunition situation sound much worse than basically anything else reported thus far. The whole big rear end NATO meeting sounds like it's going to be about how to make ammo.Sekenr posted:How noble of Austria to say such pretty words and than dial up russian gas purchases to prewar levels. I think they've paid for full deliveries, much like many if not all other EU states, in part to establish precedent for WTO and friends, for breach of contract – much like everyone else in the EU. Russia twists the gas knob entirely independently of it getting paid.
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Feb 13, 2023 19:53
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Alchenar posted:It's 60% if you combine the 30% for 'full independence now, even if China declares war' and the 'maintain status quo but keep moving towards independence without triggering a war' 30%.  https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963 ??? Outright unification is certainly low, but there doesn't seem to be some 60% majority that is pro-independence (one way or another). If anything most just want to keep the status quo going or push it until it's their kids' issue. Tomn posted:The majority opinion as far as I know is "try to keep things going, don't rock the boat, don't give the mainlanders an excuse to invade but keep being de facto independent." That might start changing the more it looks like China might invade whatever we do though - and NOT in favor of unification. Moon Slayer posted:It's also highly regional. If you're going to find any pro-reunification sentiment it's primarily going to be in Taipei and environs. As soon as you get just a little ways south or into the countryside you aren't going to find too many people excited about China in general because the native Taiwanese ("native" in this case meaning decedents of southern Chinese ethnic groups that migrated around 500 years ago) saw the KMT as invaders and the KMT didn't do much to disabuse them of that. I think these are pretty close; most people seem to be in the "don't rock the boat" mode and while I couldn't find anything broken down by region/ethic group, I'd image as Moon Slayer mentioned it's not just pro-/anti-CCP views to take into account with this question. BadOptics fucked around with this message at 20:01 on Feb 13, 2023 |
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Feb 13, 2023 19:59
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Dick Ripple posted:Do the Chinese really have any interest in brokering peace other than for their own prestige? A weakened and dependent Russia is probably in their best interest. I think the war has been to China's advantage in most respects (trade, oil, etc.) but I don't think their leadership is super happy with Russia putting the entire world on the brink of open war and triggering an enormous rebuild of NATO power. They probably genuinely do want the war to end, but as an ally of the aggressor their role in negotiations is going to be questionable from the start. Vox Nihili fucked around with this message at 20:12 on Feb 13, 2023 |
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Feb 13, 2023 20:09
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ChaseSP posted:Taiwan's support for unification is also very much straified by age and generation, younger people want nothing to do with joining up with China proper because there is 0 memory at all of the PRC being anything but an antagonist power seeking to invade whenever it would seem geopolitically feasible which combined with the blatant lie of one country, two systems in Hong Kong. Similar thing in South Korea with regards to unification. There's also a big divide between people whose families were in Taiwan before 1949 and the people who came to Taiwan as part of the KMT exodus after the Civil War. BadOptics posted:
All of those status quo options are pretty much a pragmatic way of saying you back independence. People in Taiwan are not deluded. They know full, "legitimate" independence with international recognition for the island is never going to happen without a massive and highly unlikely reshuffling of the world order. They also know they really, really do not want to reunify with the mainland and be under CCP rule. As it stands, Taiwan is a self-governing island and, while it's not perfect, most people in Taiwan would like to keep it that way. If the question was phrased in a way of "all things ideal and if you were not under the threat of a massive invasion across the strait, would you like to be independent?" then we might start seeing more of the kind of unambiguous responses that you seem to be looking for. Vox Nihili posted:I think the war has been to China's advantage in most respects (trade, oil, etc.) but I don't think their leadership is super happy with Russia putting the entire world on the brink of open war and triggering an enormous rebuild of NATO power. They probably genuinely do want the war to end, but as an ally of the aggressor their role in negotiations is going to be questionable from the start. I would love to know if the discounted oil/gas prices are offsetting the effect that the war has been having on economic stability in markets that China needs to purchase its goods. I don't know if Russia is really having the kind of asset fire sale that (at least for right now) makes the Ukraine war a net positive for China.
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Feb 13, 2023 20:18
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Hey guys, this is the wrong thread to be talking China/Tiawan reunification/independence. Mind taking it to a more appropriate thread? Thank you.
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Feb 13, 2023 20:31
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Back Hack posted:Hey guys, this is the wrong thread to be talking China/Tiawan reunification/independence. Mind taking it to a more appropriate thread? Thank you.
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Feb 13, 2023 20:38
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cinci zoo sniper posted:According to our news, Sandu says that Russia is planning a coup in Moldova. https://www.lsm.lv/raksts/zinas/arzemes/moldovas-prezidente-bridina-par-krievijas-planotu-valsts-apversumu.a496187/ Not surprising- it's a soft spot and a reasonable move from Russia's position.
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Feb 13, 2023 20:59
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Discendo Vox posted:Not surprising- it's a soft spot and a reasonable move from Russia's position. Yeah. Normally I'm deeply skeptical of any kind of "foreign interests are trying to take over, so we need to focus on internal security" reporting, but this sounds exactly like what Putin would do in the current circumstances. Moldova and the Russian forces in Transnistria are an obvious concern for both Russia and Ukraine right now. I'm curious how publicizing the planned coup is going to influence those politics.
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Feb 13, 2023 21:22
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cinci zoo sniper posted:https://www.ft.com/content/3d3c9102-b8ef-4b1c-a8dc-6c844de71981 This makes Ukraine/NATO's ammunition situation sound much worse than basically anything else reported thus far. The whole big rear end NATO meeting sounds like it's going to be about how to make ammo. Huh? Can you give an example for any of that? Austria: 1. drat bastards throw gas at us, we are powerless to stop it 2. Pretend to make an ethical way out of it, how about a speech 3. Pay for gas and fund russian war because duplicitous, we just can't stop Sekenr fucked around with this message at 22:05 on Feb 13, 2023 |
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Feb 13, 2023 21:54
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Putin's dream for Russia is essentially what he imagines America to have been at the height of its geopolitical dominance. America was behind every 'maidan' in Eastern Europe, so Russia has to covertly work on pro-Russian uprisings. Using the template that Putin thinks America uses for Russia and other countries from its 'sphere of influence', Russia definitely sponsors chaos agents all over Europe. There are plenty of recent leaks that show how politicians on all levels are approached by Russia for that task, even though, because Russia's international policy is in shambles, most of the time they basically pay nobodies with no sway exuberant amounts of money for almost zero return on investment. Plus, because the only politicians they are able to get on their side tend to be extremely corrupt and ideologically flexible, even when they have some kind of influence, they often choose to pursue their own goals instead of Russia's. From my admittedly limited understanding of Moldovan political landscape, a coup of any kind wouldn't have popular support or even be tolerated by the majority of people, despite economic and political grievances against current president and her government. Russia would need to get involved directly to accomplish anything beyond general unrest, and that would risk an escalation from Romania and other EU countries. Basically, I doubt Russia had any concrete plans for Moldova, down to dates and the list of government building to capture, but they are absolutely not passive observes in what Dodon and other similarly-minded political powers are doing there.
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Feb 13, 2023 22:29
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Paladinus posted:Putin's dream for Russia is essentially what he imagines America to have been at the height of its geopolitical dominance. America was behind every 'maidan' in Eastern Europe, so Russia has to covertly work on pro-Russian uprisings. You think he's genuinely oblivious?
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Feb 13, 2023 22:33
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Moldova has been historically saturated with Russian money and influence, up until the current administration. Most of the government operatus, including high courts are all firmly in the pro Russia camp.
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