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cinci zoo sniper posted:PM Sanchez of Spain is in Kyiv, and says that the 6 2A4s have to be extensively repaired before they will be sent to Ukraine, and that “we will see if we can scale up from 6 to 10”. https://www.ft.com/content/017864bd-f6db-459c-af67-675e81265ce2 I think it was Spain that had a scandal about military hardware sent for mothballing by a contractor to a facility along the coast instead of in the central desert as was agreed in the contract. So yeah, a 100 rusted tanks.
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Feb 23, 2023 21:08
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SmokingFrog0641 posted:
While anecdotal, this isn't a good sign that rear area TDF units were pushed up to the front by June. I haven't posted them but there are a considerable number of what is purported to be Ukrainian conscription units going around having to carry people using all 4 limbs to haul them into the bus. The Pentagon had estimated 100k for both sides back in November after Kherson had wrapped up. I don't see how this story's figure of 200k to 100k in February can be accurate.
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Feb 23, 2023 21:30
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Kraftwerk posted:I was wondering, don't the Russians have spy satellites just the same as the Americans? It surprises me they never figured out when Ukraine is driving stuff like AFVs across the polish border and just launching missiles at it after the handover. How have they been able to hide that stuff? In addition to what others have said about the limits of what you can do with satellite-generated intel, it seems also to be the case that the Russian spy satellite network is pretty small in comparison, with many of the satellites either nearing their designated lifespan or already being beyond it, and even the most recent additions very likely being far outmatched by NATO technology. Here is an article about the topic if you're interested: https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-satellites-ukraine-war-gps/31797618.html I also seem to remember reading about how Russia had or still has a hard time getting the intel from its satellites onto the ground within a sensible timeframe, although I can't find where I was reading this rn. But iirc it goes like this (anybody correct me please if I'm remembering this wrong, I can't for the life of me recall where exactly I read this): Satellites don't stream a continuous amount of data to the ground, because the files are pretty large and (more importantly) the satellites are constantly on the move. Normally you need to wait until your satellite directly passes over a dedicated ground station so it can link with it and transmit the data to you, within a quite limited time frame to boot. These ground stations can also be mobile (e.g. ships), which makes it somewhat easier to control when you can actually the receive the data. The nature of NATO and the global presence of the US military presumably allows it to operate many more ground stations than the Russians do, collecting the satellites' data much faster. The US also operate a fleet of relay satellites which makes it even easier for the spy satellites to link with the ground stations. All these are things the Russians either have too few of, their tech is too outdated or they altogether lack specific capabilities. I also recall reading somewhere that while it took NATO satellite intel on average only a few hours to find its way onto the desks of Ukrainian generals, Russian intel could sometimes take days until it reached its intended addressee, both because of technological limitations as well as bureaucratic hiccups.
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Feb 23, 2023 22:21
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RockWhisperer posted:I failed to catch this earlier, but the Economist published the second part of a series of diary accounts from an anonymous UA soldier. Very humanizing account that's worth the read with great photography to boot. Good articles. This was the best quotation: "The snorers seem to have a deal: if one goes quiet, someone from the support group will automatically fill in the silence." This is a more sober quotation, but sounds about right: “Every year of war needs ten for de-mining."  MikeC posted:While anecdotal, this isn't a good sign that rear area TDF units were pushed up to the front by June. I think we already knew this was happening last summer. If I had to guess, Ukraine was balancing stabilizing defensive lines in the face of overwhelming Russian artillery superiority with the need to stand up new formations. So some TDF units got thrown into the line to absorb artillery, while other, new units had more time to train. Given the success of the Kherson and Kharkiv offensives, that seemed to have worked. It's still lovely for those barely-trained TDF units, of course.
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Feb 23, 2023 22:48
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MikeC posted:While anecdotal, this isn't a good sign that rear area TDF units were pushed up to the front by June. I haven't posted them but there are a considerable number of what is purported to be Ukrainian conscription units going around having to carry people using all 4 limbs to haul them into the bus. The Pentagon had estimated 100k for both sides back in November after Kherson had wrapped up. I don't see how this story's figure of 200k to 100k in February can be accurate. Post your evidence of this.
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Feb 23, 2023 23:25
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Ynglaur posted:This is a more sober quotation, but sounds about right: “Every year of war needs ten for de-mining." I only learned during the course of this conflict that there are areas in France that are still uninhabitable due to the events of WW1, a century ago. A deeply depressing thing to think about.
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Feb 24, 2023 00:35
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Small White Dragon posted:I only learned during the course of this conflict that there are areas in France that are still uninhabitable due to the events of WW1, a century ago. every time i read something or watch media related to WWI i get sad in a way that i don't with a lot of other war. the way it just fundamentally changed war and how war changes generations and the earth itself i just...ugh
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Feb 24, 2023 00:56
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RockWhisperer posted:I failed to catch this earlier, but the Economist published the second part of a series of diary accounts from an anonymous UA soldier. Very humanizing account that's worth the read with great photography to boot. I really liked the writing in Part 1 and I'm glad the author was alive and able to share Part 2. A lot of the situations depicted seem absolutely horrific. I might be wrong but is it ever stated if he was part of the regular forces or part of the TDF? The fact that his unit got augmented by British trained troops makes it seem like this was regular armed forces and it's kinda crazy that the regular armed forces are facing supply situations like that.
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Feb 24, 2023 01:11
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Kraftwerk posted:I was wondering, don't the Russians have spy satellites just the same as the Americans? It surprises me they never figured out when Ukraine is driving stuff like AFVs across the polish border and just launching missiles at it after the handover. How have they been able to hide that stuff? They have some, but nowhere near as many as the US. The only one close is China. The Russian space program is a shadow of what the Soviet one was and decaying more all the time.
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Feb 24, 2023 01:28
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WarpedLichen posted:I really liked the writing in Part 1 and I'm glad the author was alive and able to share Part 2. It's mentioned in the article that he is part of an air assault brigade. And the other half of the guys he trained with in pt.1 went to the marines.
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Feb 24, 2023 01:42
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Charlotte Hornets posted:It's mentioned in the article that he is part of an air assault brigade. And the other half of the guys he trained with in pt.1 went to the marines. Yeah the quote is: quote:We are told which brigade we are being sent to: half of us will be with the marines, the other half, including me, are to be assault troops. But I'm not really sure what that means. I guess if assault troops could mean the Air Assault Forces (VDV?) and the marines means joining the Naval infantry like you're saying. WarpedLichen fucked around with this message at 01:53 on Feb 24, 2023 |
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Feb 24, 2023 01:48
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https://www.spiegel.de/politik/krie...dc-aeb837e7d30a
According to that information, the Russian military is engaged in negotiations with Chinese drone manufacturer Xi'an Bingo Intelligent Aviation Technology over the mass production of kamikaze drones for Russia. The revelations create a new urgency in the debate over possible Chinese military support for Russia. Bingo has reportedly agreed to manufacture and test 100 ZT-180 prototype drones before delivering them to the Russian Defense Ministry by April 2023. Military experts believe the ZT-180 is capable of carrying a 35- to 50 kilogram warhead. Sources believe that the design of the unmanned aerial vehicle could be similar to that of Iran's Shaheed 136 kamikaze drone. The Russian army has deployed hundreds of them in its attacks on Ukraine, where they used the Iranian drones to target residential buildings, power plants and district heating facilities, often resulting in civilian casualties.
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Feb 24, 2023 01:52
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Rinkles posted:https://www.spiegel.de/politik/krie...dc-aeb837e7d30a Much of the Western world has spent the last three years starting to untangle their supply chains from China as a result of COVID. They are nowhere near done yet, but China sending overt military aid could fall in the "gently caress around and find out" category diplomatically, so I could see a bunch of Western companies start to scramble to shield themselves from a sanction-beset China.
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Feb 24, 2023 01:57
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Ynglaur posted:Much of the Western world has spent the last three years starting to untangle their supply chains from China as a result of COVID. They are nowhere near done yet, but China sending overt military aid could fall in the "gently caress around and find out" category diplomatically, so I could see a bunch of Western companies start to scramble to shield themselves from a sanction-beset China. A silver lining to the war is that "the West" is starting to permanently divest itself from China. COVID was the starting point, but it we see Chinese missile drones in Ukraine then that's pretty much the end of doing business in China. They're be a lot of pushback, but the momentum to sever will be very strong.
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Feb 24, 2023 02:31
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enigma74 posted:https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-considers-release-of-intelligence-on-chinas-potential-arms-transfer-to-russia-8e353933 I can see the following things to gain, from China's perspective: - Live, real world testing & data collection for their weaponry (especially useful in helping them decide whether or not to invade Taiwan) - Strengthening their relationship with Russia, perhaps even making Russia a subservient member of the relationship, which helps China consolidate global influence / take a position as the other pole in a multipolar world - Prolonging the conflict, which in the short term grinds away at stocks of western materiel and, in the long run, exacerbates cracks in western alliances. Keep in mind that democracies probably can't keep this up forever - on a long enough timeline, politics shift, voters get sick of spending money on war, etc. This is ultimately how the USA was defeated in Afghanistan, after all. - Related to above, reducing the prestige and influence of the west. The Chinese government would probably like to be able to say "Even huge supplies of western weaponry just cannot overcome mixed Chinese and Russian effort. Western (and especially US) hegemony is fading." Obviously there would be huge costs too. China's economy is deeply exposed to - really, is dependent upon the west. Heavy sanctions could badly harm China's economy, but they may calculate that the west doesn't have the stomach to actually lay on the sanctions. Democracies cannot demand their populations suffer deprivation to the same degree as authoritarian states. I can imagine it would go over like a lead balloon if there was a major shortage in iPhones, for example, since they're manufactured in China. Are the costs worth the benefits? That's a call for Chinese leadership to make. But I think it's a fair assumption that they'll think about this deeply and not just dismiss it as obviously not worth it.
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Feb 24, 2023 02:37
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Chimp_On_Stilts posted:Obviously there would be huge costs too. China's economy is deeply exposed to - really, is dependent upon the west. Heavy sanctions could badly harm China's economy, but they may calculate that the west doesn't have the stomach to actually lay on the sanctions. Democracies cannot demand their populations suffer deprivation to the same degree as authoritarian states. I can imagine it would go over like a lead balloon if there was a major shortage in iPhones, for example, since they're manufactured in China. just in case, buy any planned luxury purchases now
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Feb 24, 2023 02:48
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Neat https://mobile.twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1628751366725292032
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Feb 24, 2023 03:06
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https://twitter.com/DionisCenusa/status/1628330375264051201?t=jgDAeyVN6EEZUTY2xPOZ0w&s=19 I don't expect the Russian rumors about Transdniestria to amount to much, but here's a decent primer on the current political situation in Moldova.
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Feb 24, 2023 03:19
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I think we will survive a few years without a new iphone but Tbh i hate how the CCP is just sent on this course.
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Feb 24, 2023 03:24
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Burns posted:I think we will survive a few years without a new iphone but Tbh i hate how the CCP is just sent on this course. wouldn't a sanctions war affect a million other things, big and small?
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Feb 24, 2023 03:28
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Chimp_On_Stilts posted:I can see the following things to gain, from China's perspective: Well, crap. Good points. They've gone wolf warrior diplomacy before, why not some foreign adventurism to raise the prestige of the Xi dynasty.
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Feb 24, 2023 03:43
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Hannibal Rex posted:https://twitter.com/DionisCenusa/status/1628330375264051201?t=jgDAeyVN6EEZUTY2xPOZ0w&s=19 The Moldova poll they link is pretty interesting in itself: https://www.watchdog.md/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/WatchDog.MD-Survey-January-2023-1.pdf I do wonder if the Moldova stuff is just Russia trying to get Ukraine to move AA out of the east of the country, given the claim the Russia will start using manned aircraft more aggressively
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Feb 24, 2023 03:44
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WarpedLichen posted:I really liked the writing in Part 1 and I'm glad the author was alive and able to share Part 2. I don't recall, but it seemed to be regular forces because he was in an assault battalion. I agree with the first part being written better but also attribute that to part 2 occurring after the author's deployment. I would not fault the author for stopping the diaries in the case the writing makes the trauma worse though. As a reader on the other hand, it's the best account of the war I've read that brings the war down to a human level and would like more.
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Feb 24, 2023 03:45
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China's been trying to drive a wedge between Europe and the US, so getting involved in the Ukraine war on Russia's side seems incredibly stupid. There's nothing they can gain by propping up Russia that outweighs the downside for them of forcing Europe and the US closer together and the hit they would take on their relations with Europe.
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Feb 24, 2023 03:46
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Dawn breaks on kyiv etc etc for the start of year 2
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Feb 24, 2023 03:47
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Rinkles posted:wouldn't a sanctions war affect a million other things, big and small? It would be a disaster for everyone if China gets themselves sanctioned. Like so bad China may feel they can get away with something, and they are probably right. Tough to see the upside for them though. If they misjudge, there is a real danger we blow up the world economy or expand the war.
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Feb 24, 2023 03:54
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I was glued to this thread's predecessor, Twitter, Google Maps traffic layers of the Ukrainian border, and every YouTube webcam I could find from Ukrainian cities a year ago right now. For better or worse, I had no idea that the fight would still be happening today.
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Feb 24, 2023 03:59
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Flavahbeast posted:The Moldova poll they link is pretty interesting in itself: https://www.watchdog.md/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/WatchDog.MD-Survey-January-2023-1.pdf https://www.romania-insider.com/president-romania-stands-moldova-any-scenario quote:
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Feb 24, 2023 04:00
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thekeeshman posted:China's been trying to drive a wedge between Europe and the US, so getting involved in the Ukraine war on Russia's side seems incredibly stupid. There's nothing they can gain by propping up Russia that outweighs the downside for them of forcing Europe and the US closer together and the hit they would take on their relations with Europe. Judging from the D&D Chinathread, Chinese intellectual circles have some really weird ideas about how Europe works and what they want. In particular it seems they regard Europe as being basically France and Germany, both of are effectively American vassal states who long to slip free of the iron grip of Washington to form a new independent superpower, most realistically by allying with Russia (the other great European power) to form a new power bloc so that they too can jockey for influence and spread their imperial wings once more (from which they’re currently being prevented by the US, who fears their vassals becoming too powerful). Given that they really don’t seem to, uh, fully grasp the nuances of European politics I could see China making a catastrophic misjudgment about how this would go down in Europe, and blaming CIA meddling for the backlash.
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Feb 24, 2023 04:41
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Staluigi posted:Dawn breaks on kyiv etc etc for the start of year 2 
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Feb 24, 2023 04:49
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China and Russia appear to be similar in that state control of domestic media over time has produced a self-consuming propaganda apparatus that creates really bizarre outcomes when leadership (who inevitably are poisoned by their own lies in a relatively short time period) interact with the world outside their bubble. China's domestic propaganda apparatus is way more complete and sophisticated than Russia's, but conversely Russia's had more success in West-facing external propaganda messaging. The increasing coordination of their messaging through COVID should be viewed with substantial concern.
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Feb 24, 2023 05:40
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/22/global-south-russia-war-divided/quote:India announced last week that its trade with Russia has grown by 400 percent since the invasion. In just the past six weeks, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has been welcomed in nine countries in Africa and the Middle East — including South Africa, whose foreign minister, Naledi Pandor, hailed their meeting as “wonderful” and called South Africa and Russia “friends.”
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Feb 24, 2023 05:53
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ShadowHawk posted:https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/22/global-south-russia-war-divided/ This exercise again brings up how badly Putin has hosed up with the war. Admiral Gorshkov class (present in SA right now) and Admiral Grigorovich class frigates were meant to modernise the Russian navy. But the engines were bought from Ukraine, and of course that cooperation ended in 2014. Russia ended with several unfinished frigates without propulsion system. They failed at developing a domestic replacement for the Grigorovich's so they had to sell two unfinished ships to India and one to an unnamed buyer (China?). For Gorshkov's they managed to develop an alternative, but the results remain to be seen. Given how well they have renovated the Kuznetsov, though...
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Feb 24, 2023 08:17
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This would be good https://twitter.com/Billbrowder/status/1629048404289413122 In one year, they have lost 1772 tanks, 793 AFVs, 2118 IFVs, 298 APCs, etc https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1629042293008224262
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Feb 24, 2023 10:32
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ShadowHawk posted:https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/22/global-south-russia-war-divided/ All the places they point at are the same places who never supported the west during the Cold War, and it didn't make a difference to the result there, so I don't see how it's going to make much of a difference now.
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Feb 24, 2023 12:26
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Keisari posted:Hold on hold on, wait what? Some high-ranking banker was literally assassinated? Why? Who? How? https://jfmb.eu/en/news/dirty-money-bloody-murder/
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Feb 24, 2023 12:34
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cinci zoo sniper posted:
Thanks for putting in the effort to telling the story! That was a super interesting read. Yeah so today is the anniversary of the war. I hope that out of all this misery, at least something good can come up, such as that more potential wars can be avoided. It's as if most of the Western nations have been woken from complacent stupor. If nothing else, at least after all this is done Russia wont be in a position to launch another genocidal invasion for a long while.
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Feb 24, 2023 12:43
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FT petty much confirming what me and a few other posters have been surmising ITT, that the penultimate goal of Prigozhin’s court intrigues was ousting Shoygu, and that even that was a show of boundless optimism/opportunism, aiming at the hand often feeding Wagner. https://www.ft.com/content/ce9723c7-d7e6-4f74-b50e-d145ab8bd5df They’re also doing a live war anniversary special, mixing news with recollections of the early days of the war. So far, we have US and UK sanctions, with Japan and the EU still working to wrap up their sanctions packages. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 13:35 on Feb 24, 2023 |
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Feb 24, 2023 13:09
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cinci zoo sniper posted:FT petty much confirming what me and a few other posters have been surmising ITT, that the penultimate goal of Prigozhin’s court intrigues was ousting Shoygu, and that even that was show of boundless optimism/opportunism, aiming at the hand often feeding Wagner. https://www.ft.com/content/ce9723c7-d7e6-4f74-b50e-d145ab8bd5df Prigozhyn is now beefing with the Sverdlov governor Kuivashev. He chastised him and other local officials who don't want to give Wagner mercenaries proper burials with military honours. Kuivashev posted:If every businessman who makes money on school lunches tries to rule the country, we won't get too far. Everyone should do their job. You fry your burgers and boil your pasta, and we'll manage ourselves where we are. Prigozhyn posted:Stalin used to simply execute criminals like you and Beglov (Saint-Petersburg's mayor -P.). I think we're getting close to that.
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Feb 24, 2023 13:41
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Putin's dependence and ties to Shoygu are all the more perplexing, since he's just a really, really poor choice for the minister of defense. As a career civil engineer, he's only real connection to the army if through the civil defense organization, which has very little to do with running an offensive-oriented modern military. I guess Prigozhin was banking on using this against Shoygu, but it's not as if he himself has a stronger claim to the ministry, other than really being into guns and uniforms. In the long run, it's better for Russia's opponents for these two to be stuck in a perpetual headlock, because it stops anyone more competent emerging through the ranks. Putin's puppet master mentality promotes mediocrity first and foremost among his underlings to keep them in line.
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