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Nelson Mandingo
Mar 27, 2005




the popes toes posted:

I believe the framing is Mr. Putin had no choice. Indeed, he warned the West many times against this political adventure, and so unheeded, he did what he said he would do. The West didn't necessarily trap him as wantonly challenged him. The reasons for the West's goading are various and none of them make the least bit of sense.

All of the notions completely reject Ukraine's agency (the US forced Maidan by machinations) and utterly ignore Ukraine's desire to prosper via a euro model instead of the Russian one. All mentions of sovereignty are brushed aside by the claim that Ukraine is doing the bidding of the US who completely control Ukraine's choices. It's clear, in that framing, that the US interrupted Ukraine's initial peace talks with threats so as to implement their fully developed plan to weaken Russia because "the West wants our x".

It would all be so laughable if people weren't dying by the scores daily and deeply depressing there are US citizens of some influence who no longer believe that democracies challenged by authoritarian brutality should be challenged.

There was a joke in the other Ukraine thread that "NATO kept wagging it's finger at Russia, so it obviously had no choice but to invade and commit genocide." And while honestly intended as a joke, that essentially is the truth of the matter if you genuinely accept the idea NATO is an imminent and existential threat to Russia and caused this by...simply existing?

Putin's latest word salad rant had a part about how long range missiles get put on the border of Russia, so in response he has to keep expanding the border as well. ...Which is an open admission that he's choosing imperialist expansion for a thin veneer of safety. It's hard for me to take anyone seriously who swallows and parrots this stuff. It's transparent nonsense. If you really want to support Russia, why invent these dumb and convoluted reasons and just be honest about it?

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freeasinbeer
Mar 26, 2015

by Fluffdaddy

Nelson Mandingo posted:

There was a joke in the other Ukraine thread that "NATO kept wagging it's finger at Russia, so it obviously had no choice but to invade and commit genocide." And while honestly intended as a joke, that essentially is the truth of the matter if you genuinely accept the idea NATO is an imminent and existential threat to Russia and caused this by...simply existing?

Putin's latest word salad rant had a part about how long range missiles get put on the border of Russia, so in response he has to keep expanding the border as well. ...Which is an open admission that he's choosing imperialist expansion for a thin veneer of safety. It's hard for me to take anyone seriously who swallows and parrots this stuff. It's transparent nonsense. If you really want to support Russia, why invent these dumb and convoluted reasons and just be honest about it?

Because Russia are unequivocal bad guys and you need either to delude yourself into believing they’re not, or you know and support them anyway but you want your buddy who only wants to talk about the NBA or NHL to be on your side, because both sides are no angels.

Jonny Nox
Apr 26, 2008




I mean Ovechkin stumps for Putin, so that's your NHL fan taken care of...



Sorry, Ovechkin is "non political" when he's not campaigning for Putin.

Moon Slayer
Jun 19, 2007

Funny how somehow the Baltic countries joining NATO wasn't an existential threat to Russia but Ukraine joining would be.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

There's a strange "leftist" school of thought that states only America truly has agency in world politics and every other government essentially only ever reacts to American stimulus. It's not phrased this way but that's what, when you strip away all the cruft and phraseology and caveats, they're actually saying. The arguments you're talking about come from this school of thought.

It's somehow the most amerocentric perspective possible despite being presented as the opposite, too.

Grape
Nov 16, 2017

Happily shilling for China!

Herstory Begins Now posted:

It's somehow the most amerocentric perspective possible despite being presented as the opposite, too.

Like I said, it's just upside down American exceptionalism.

Main character syndrome, except you believe the main character is an all powerful mind controlling evil mary sue.

the popes toes
Oct 10, 2004

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

There's a strange "leftist" school of thought that states only America truly has agency in world politics and every other government essentially only ever reacts to American stimulus. It's not phrased this way but that's what, when you strip away all the cruft and phraseology and caveats, they're actually saying. The arguments you're talking about come from this school of thought.

Not going to link to the guy but yeah, that's the argument. With ref to the UNGA resolution condemning the invasion:

Considering the majority of nations "in favor" were coerced and threatened by the US or are outright controlled by client regimes installed by the US, the vote does more to reflect everything that's wrong with the UN than a meaningful indictment against Russia.

Jonny Nox
Apr 26, 2008




Sorry to be bloodthirsty but this is cool as hell.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1629909265753276419?s=20

not sure what the ukrainian is doing. probably pointing to show the drone where to go....

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Ynglaur
Oct 9, 2013

The Malta Conference, anyone?
CNN is reporting that Zelenskyy fired Ukraine's "Commander of Joint Forces." What is this role, exactly? The person was a Major General, which means there are more senior ranks (unless Ukraine's general ranks are very different).

Huggybear
Jun 17, 2005

I got the jimjams

Jonny Nox posted:

Sorry to be bloodthirsty but this is cool as hell.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1629909265753276419?s=20

not sure what the ukrainian is doing. probably pointing to show the drone where to go....

Are these still jury rigged or is someone making these for this specific use? Are those mortars or munitions designed to explode on contact? What does command and control look like? The targeting must have its own logistics as the drone camera is just a camera from what I have seen; is there a specific platform or - dare I speculate - a targeting OS or app for something like this? I get this might all be top secret and milsec, I am just interested in the generalities.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

Ynglaur posted:

CNN is reporting that Zelenskyy fired Ukraine's "Commander of Joint Forces." What is this role, exactly? The person was a Major General, which means there are more senior ranks (unless Ukraine's general ranks are very different).

joint forces is a unified military and law enforcement and intelligence body overseeing anti-Russian operations in the donbass, more or less. Originally was under intelligence control but was shifted over to military control a number of years ago.

freeasinbeer
Mar 26, 2015

by Fluffdaddy

Huggybear posted:

Are these still jury rigged or is someone making these for this specific use? Are those mortars or munitions designed to explode on contact? What does command and control look like? The targeting must have its own logistics as the drone camera is just a camera from what I have seen; is there a specific platform or - dare I speculate - a targeting OS or app for something like this? I get this might all be top secret and milsec, I am just interested in the generalities.

No idea how that one works, but I remember seeing some early versions with civilian drones supposedly used sensors watching lights on the drone that could be triggered through the drones app to blink on command.

Flash the light, the bomb holder releases the bomb.

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


35 minutes of interviews with soldiers and resistance members in Kherson from France24, released a couple days ago. Nothing gory, but covered corpses and some harrowing combat footage (cinci edit: :nws:) are shown:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dXylHMy9X0M

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Somebody fucked around with this message at 10:17 on Feb 27, 2023

Samovar
Jun 4, 2011

I'm 😤 not a 🦸🏻‍♂️hero...🧜🏻



GSV gently caress Your God posted:

Also, from that Global Times article was this line, which was, in euphamism, lamenting that the Ukrainian people had as much popular will to defend themselves as they do:

Gee whiz, wonder why that could be:

They really seem to think (or at least, try to popularize the idea) that the UAF is the modern day equivalent of the ARVN.

lamentable dustman
Apr 13, 2007

🏆🏆🏆

Huggybear posted:

Are these still jury rigged or is someone making these for this specific use? Are those mortars or munitions designed to explode on contact? What does command and control look like? The targeting must have its own logistics as the drone camera is just a camera from what I have seen; is there a specific platform or - dare I speculate - a targeting OS or app for something like this? I get this might all be top secret and milsec, I am just interested in the generalities.

US seems to be using 3 main drones. A Mavic 3 quad which is used at the squad level and controlled by a phone and console like controller. It is rigged to drop grenades or small morter rounds with some 3d printed parts. They also have also been using some small racing drones that they strap rpg rounds to that are suicide drones. Both are realitivly cheap off the self drones from China, mostly made by DJI.

The one in the pic is a much more expensive octo drone that for the most part is used for over watch but they do sometimes have a load of grenades as you can see.

Anyways, here is a good PowerPoint about them all. I don't remember anything offensive in it and it was rather dry but :nms: to be safe.

https://youtu.be/AlpZf1hpQYM

freeasinbeer posted:

No idea how that one works, but I remember seeing some early versions with civilian drones supposedly used sensors watching lights on the drone that could be triggered through the drones app to blink on command.

Flash the light, the bomb holder releases the bomb.

That would make sense, I've noticed some kind of light notification pop up in the center of the display when they release in the past.

lamentable dustman fucked around with this message at 07:18 on Feb 27, 2023

Victis
Mar 26, 2008

JFO is Donbas/Eastern Ukraine. So either Zelenskyy isn’t happy with what’s going on in the East or it’s part of his ongoing focus on corruption, or both I guess

Ukraine was full of developers pre-war so these civilian drones get flashed with firmware hacks created to support combat ops

Torrannor
Apr 27, 2013

---FAGNER---
TEAM-MATE

Moon Slayer posted:

Funny how somehow the Baltic countries joining NATO wasn't an existential threat to Russia but Ukraine joining would be.

Well, to be fair, Ukraine joining NATO (which wasn't going to happen as long as Russia supplied Germany with cheap gas) would be a much bigger threat to Russia than the Baltics joining, for a lot of reasons. If you believe that NATO is a threat to Russia.

hey mom its 420
May 12, 2007

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-X8Zaev5o4

Found this update from Bakhmut. I'm not sure how accurate the information within is, but it looks legit. It looks like the Russians were able to make tactical progress and collapse some front lines north of Bakhmut just before the weather turned sour. Ukraine blew up a dam nearby to cut them off and slow their advance. This guy estimates around 2.5k Ukrainian soldiers stuck in the Bakhmut residential areas.

HolHorsejob
Mar 14, 2020

Portrait of Cheems II of Spain by Jabona Neftman, olo pint on fird
I have my doubts about this video, if only because the thumbnail marks it as dogshit-grade clickbait. This war has been chock-full of self-proclaimed experts popping up out of nowhere that start with one or two insightful points and then stretch those points to a wildly overblown conclusion, like trent telenko and how bad tires mean a complete logistical collapse for russia in 5 months, or kamil galeev and how Russian supply chain issues mean this war will cause the russian rail system to collapse and the country to fragment into warlord fiefdoms.

The topic these guys have educated me most on is their particular flavor of Russia-watcher hustlegrind

hey mom its 420
May 12, 2007

I see. Yeah, unforunately, most videos these days have a clickbait thumbnail, even if they turn out to be good and informative, so it's very hard to tell. I mostly just follow Perun and Anders Puck Nielsen, but they don't deal with the day to day stuff. Anyone got any good sources for that?

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




hey mom its 420 posted:

I see. Yeah, unforunately, most videos these days have a clickbait thumbnail, even if they turn out to be good and informative, so it's very hard to tell. I mostly just follow Perun and Anders Puck Nielsen, but they don't deal with the day to day stuff. Anyone got any good sources for that?

https://notes.citeam.org/+dispatches I think CIT does good status updates for the war. They're a bit behind the hour, publishing new dispatches every 1–4 days (depending on the intensity of war) and taking some additional time to (not so well) translate their Russian-language updates into English, adding maps from Defmon, but I would say that for the majority of people that should be regular enough. Think of it like a much more condensed version of the ISW reports, where the repeating half is omitted.

Karate Bastard
Jul 31, 2007

Soiled Meat

HolHorsejob posted:

I have my doubts about this video, if only because the thumbnail marks it as dogshit-grade clickbait. This war has been chock-full of self-proclaimed experts popping up out of nowhere that start with one or two insightful points and then stretch those points to a wildly overblown conclusion, like trent telenko and how bad tires mean a complete logistical collapse for russia in 5 months, or kamil galeev and how Russian supply chain issues mean this war will cause the russian rail system to collapse and the country to fragment into warlord fiefdoms.

The topic these guys have educated me most on is their particular flavor of Russia-watcher hustlegrind

I've been watching a lot of this guy's videos, and have seen a lot of reactions like yours. Yes, everyone finds the thumbnails and titles clickbaity, but everyone who bothers to watch more than a little of it seems to conclude that there's nothing wrong with the actual content. I would agree with that, but my relatively uneducated opinion should not be very valuable to anybody.

If anyone knows of a good reason not to follow this guy then I'd be happy to hear it!

StrangersInTheNight
Dec 31, 2007
ABSOLUTE FUCKING GUDGEON

Nelson Mandingo posted:

Putin's latest word salad rant had a part about how long range missiles get put on the border of Russia, so in response he has to keep expanding the border as well. ...Which is an open admission that he's choosing imperialist expansion for a thin veneer of safety.

I see you haven't been sent a far-too-long leftist YouTube video explaining how imperialism can only be done by capitalist western governments.

You see, communism doesn't require constant expansion and pillaging of resources like capitalism does, so communist governments don't seek out other countries to invade and take their resources. Thus, nothing Russia does is imperialism; instead, it is justified reactive self-defense against a capitalist world that seeks to stamp out all vestiges of communism.

To believe this you must ignore that it's not 1980 anymore and that Russia is no longer communist, but capitalist with a communist veneer slapped across it.

StrangersInTheNight
Dec 31, 2007
ABSOLUTE FUCKING GUDGEON
My favorite tho is when leftists go off on a rant about Ukraine being part of Russian sovereignty that sounds like it came straight from the western expansion of the US in the 1800s. Just some weird-rear end Manifest Destiny poo poo. Bitch, gently caress a sovereignty.

StrangersInTheNight fucked around with this message at 11:34 on Feb 27, 2023

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Submissions are closed for ranting about random cranks, thank you.

Owling Howl
Jul 17, 2019

Torrannor posted:

Well, to be fair, Ukraine joining NATO (which wasn't going to happen as long as Russia supplied Germany with cheap gas) would be a much bigger threat to Russia than the Baltics joining, for a lot of reasons. If you believe that NATO is a threat to Russia.

Well sure but it wasn't about NATO. Russia started this war because Ukraine was about to sign a trade agreement with the EU similar to other EU trade agreements with Morocco and Egypt.

The Russian government explicitly and directly told Ukraine and the EU what they would do:

Sergei Glazyev, EU-Ukraine meeting at Yalta, 22 September 2013 posted:

"But legally, signing this agreement about association with EU, the Ukrainian government violates the treaty on strategic partnership and friendship with Russia." When this happened, he said, Russia could no longer guarantee Ukraine's status as a state and could possibly intervene if pro-Russian regions of the country appealed directly to Moscow.

In addition, since independence in 1991 until 2014 Ukraine was neutral and constitutionally unable to join NATO. The Declaration of State Sovereignty of Ukraine, passed on July 1, 1990, declared that the country had the “intention of becoming a permanently neutral state that does not participate in military blocs...” and the Ukrainian Constitution, based on the Declaration of Independence of August 24, 1991, contained principles of non-coalition and future neutrality.

It was not about NATO and if Russia was concerned about Ukraine joining NATO they should not have ended Ukrainian neutrality in February 2014.

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CSM
Jan 29, 2014

56th Motorized Infantry 'Mariupol' Brigade
Seh' die Welt in Trummern liegen

Nenonen posted:

They're thermobaric rocket launchers.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RPO-A_Shmel

e: here's a video showing it in action in Mariupol. There's no visible gore on the video, but I recall that in another video they showed the results from close up - a group of Russian footmen who were between the BMP and the stone fence all died, so be warned :nws:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5A1FzlHBWPU
The Wikipedia description of the effects of thermobaric weapons is something else:

quote:

The [blast] kill mechanism against living targets is unique—and unpleasant. ... What kills is the pressure wave, and more importantly, the subsequent rarefaction [vacuum], which ruptures the lungs. ... If the fuel deflagrates but does not detonate, victims will be severely burned and will probably also inhale the burning fuel. Since the most common FAE fuels, ethylene oxide and propylene oxide, are highly toxic, undetonated FAE should prove as lethal to personnel caught within the cloud as with most chemical agents.

According to a US Central Intelligence Agency study, "the effect of an FAE explosion within confined spaces is immense. Those near the ignition point are obliterated. Those at the fringe are likely to suffer many internal, invisible injuries, including burst eardrums and crushed inner ear organs, severe concussions, ruptured lungs and internal organs, and possibly blindness." Another Defense Intelligence Agency document speculates that, because the "shock and pressure waves cause minimal damage to brain tissue ... it is possible that victims of FAEs are not rendered unconscious by the blast, but instead suffer for several seconds or minutes while they suffocate".

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermobaric_weapon
:stare:

Victis
Mar 26, 2008

StrangersInTheNight posted:

I see you haven't been sent a far-too-long leftist YouTube video explaining how imperialism can only be done by capitalist western governments.

You see, communism doesn't require constant expansion and pillaging of resources like capitalism does, so communist governments don't seek out other countries to invade and take their resources. Thus, nothing Russia does is imperialism; instead, it is justified reactive self-defense against a capitalist world that seeks to stamp out all vestiges of communism.

To believe this you must ignore that it's not 1980 anymore and that Russia is no longer communist, but capitalist with a communist veneer slapped across it.

Not that any of that matters as Soviet Communism very much WAS about invading and systematically exploiting non-ethnic Russians (or anyone outside Moscow/St. Petersburg, whatever floats your boat)

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Atreiden
May 4, 2008

Girkin is having another bad day.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1630175329422655489

Dandywalken
Feb 11, 2014

Has there been any satellite confirmation on the A-50 being hit yet, or nothing?

Ups_rail
Dec 8, 2006

by Fluffdaddy

the popes toes posted:

I believe the framing is Mr. Putin had no choice. Indeed, he warned the West many times against this political adventure, and so unheeded, he did what he said he would do. The West didn't necessarily trap him as wantonly challenged him. The reasons for the West's goading are various and none of them make the least bit of sense.

All of the notions completely reject Ukraine's agency (the US forced Maidan by machinations) and utterly ignore Ukraine's desire to prosper via a euro model instead of the Russian one. All mentions of sovereignty are brushed aside by the claim that Ukraine is doing the bidding of the US who completely control Ukraine's choices. It's clear, in that framing, that the US interrupted Ukraine's initial peace talks with threats so as to implement their fully developed plan to weaken Russia because "the West wants our x".

It would all be so laughable if people weren't dying by the scores daily and deeply depressing there are US citizens of some influence who no longer believe that democracies challenged by authoritarian brutality should be challenged.

The conservative block in the US believe the Ukraine is soo corrupt, that is just a puppet state the clintons and biden because of the hunter laptop and joe s remark of firing some prosecutor, all the aid and money going to the Ukraine is just being funneled out to the DNC and their masters....But the russians have a huuuge number of men to throw at the Ukrainians!

Why yes I did have breakfast with family this Sunday.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Dandywalken posted:

Has there been any satellite confirmation on the A-50 being hit yet, or nothing?

Just checked on Planet, there's nothing new today. It's also cloudy in the area, so there's a good chance it'll be blocked anyway.

Vaginaface
Aug 26, 2013

HEY REI HEY REI,
do vaginaface!

Icon Of Sin posted:

Luka: I can’t help with Ukraine right now, I’ve got partisans to deal with!!!

Seriously though, the man has danced on the world’s thinnest tightrope for a year now re: Ukraine.

Has anyone from the RF side accused Luka of these being false flag situations? Is he self interested enough to even consider that sort of thing to stay [relatively] uninvolved?

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




:siren: Minor service announcement – SAD is open for all your questions to admins about the demise of the GBS thread about Russia's war in Ukraine. I don't care to read in this thread why you do or not believe something or whatever else is on your heart about the thread, but if you want to talk to the manager about this, they're waiting for you here: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=4025159

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

Vaginaface posted:

Has anyone from the RF side accused Luka of these being false flag situations? Is he self interested enough to even consider that sort of thing to stay [relatively] uninvolved?

Haven't seen anything like that. Both Russia and Lukashenko are still trying to come up with a narrative that is the least embarrassing for them, and both have things they would like to not acknowledge. For Lukashenko it's showing that opposition partisans can operate with impunity for months, perform what amounts to a terroristic act, and swiftly escape abroad. For Russia, it's showing that half a dozen drones can successfully decommission a plane that costs more than annual military aid to Ukraine of some smaller countries. Synthesis of these two concerns will probably be something like Ukrainian agents in collaboration with local terrorists attempted to blow up a plane, failed, and are now apprehended.

Moon Slayer
Jun 19, 2007

Germany gonna Germany.

"Politico posted:

The truth about Germany’s defense policy shift
A year after Chancellor Olaf Scholz declared a sea change in German defense, Berlin’s security policy is the same as it ever was.

BY MATTHEW KARNITSCHNIG
FEBRUARY 27, 2023 4:00 AM CET


BERLIN — Americans have a weakness for complicated German words, from realpolitik, coined in the 19th century, to the more recent Zeitenwende, the new dawn in Germany’s security policy that Chancellor Olaf Scholz proclaimed a year ago today.

Scholz told a crowded parliament chamber three days after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that they were “living through a Zeitenwende,” literally a turning point in history.

“That means that the world afterwards will no longer be the same as the world before,” Scholz said in his familiar monotone.

Calling Russian President Vladimir Putin a “warmonger,” the German leader pledged to stop starving the battered German military and set aside €100 billion, or about double the annual defense budget, to jumpstart its modernization.

“So when are the Germans going to actually start spending on procurement for the Zeitenwende?” an American official asked me earlier this month.

I was tempted to cite a favorite New Yorker cartoon (“How about never?”).

Zeitenwende might have entered the transatlantic vernacular, I told the official, but a year in, it’s become clear that the best way to describe Scholz’s much-ballyhooed slogan is with a blunt Americanism: bullshit.

So far, Germany has committed (though not spent) about €30 billion of the €100 billion, the government said last week, adding the money would only be transferred once the ordered aircraft, uniforms and other gear materialized. That said, the earmarked funds include about €13 billion for nuclear-capable fighter aircraft and transport helicopters that Germany had planned to purchase even before the war.

Though Scholz and his ministers continue to pepper their rhetoric with Zeitenwende references when speaking to foreigners, it’s obvious to most observers that the air has gone out of the balloon.

“Everyone is talking about Zeitenwende, but so far we’ve only seen Zeitlupe,” meaning slow motion, Markus Söder, the conservative leader of Bavaria, said last week.

Scholz’s priorities lie elsewhere.

When analysts warned last fall that high inflation would eat away at the €100 billion fund if the government didn’t spend it quickly, for example, the defense ministry, instead of pledging to close the gap, simply pared back its wish list, including two frigates for the German navy. Around the same time, the government passed a €200 billion package to subsidize Germans’ energy bills, an intiative bound to go down well with voters but do nothing for the country’s security.

To be fair, the Zeitenwende was as much about shifting Germany’s mindset on security issues as it was about spending on the military. Under former center-right Chancellor Angela Merkel, Berlin all but invited Putin to invade by signaling there would be no consequences if he did so (see Russian incursions into Georgia, support for separatists in Donbass, the annexation of Crimea, the natural pipelines Nord Stream 1, Nord Stream 2, etc). A year ago, Scholz was keen to prove that Berlin understood the error of its ways.

Yet, here too, Scholz’s rhetoric is completely divorced from reality.

A close look at Scholz’s Zeitenwende speech makes it clear that he feared (as did many in Europe at the time) that Ukraine would collapse within hours and that Russia might soon be stationed on the Ukrainian border with Poland.

Ukraine’s resilience has given Scholz more breathing room on the Zeitenwende front — as well as on the question of sending infantry fighting vehicles and tanks to Ukraine, which he refused to do for nearly a year, fearing “escalation.”

The main force holding Scholz back was the chancellor’s Social Democratic Party. Until Scholz’s surprise success in winning the race (albeit by a hair) to succeed Merkel in 2021, the SPD appeared to be a spent political force, lacking clear direction and plagued by infighting.

The party’s victory, which arguably had more to do with the weakness of its opponents than its own attractiveness, elevated a motley crew of old-school, anti-American leftists. Among them was Rolf Mützenich, the leader of the SPD parliamentary group, whose main political aim (until the Russian invasion of Ukraine) was to rid Germany of U.S. nuclear warheads.

Scholz’s own political career began on the streets of 1980s West Germany, where he led protests against U.S. plans to station mid-range nuclear missiles in Europe and fantasized of taking Germany out of NATO.

That might explain his jaundiced view of the U.S., which he recently insisted pledge to dispatch M-1 Abrams battle tanks to Ukraine before Germany would agree to send its own Leopard tanks or even allow others to do so.

U.S. President Joe Biden ultimately bowed to Scholz’s demand in order to get the German tanks moving.

The chancellor’s argument that his tank ploy, which he sold at home as a major political victory, would help ensure continued U.S. engagement with Ukraine and support for NATO is absurd on its face when one considers how much Washington has already committed to helping Kyiv compared to Germany (€73 billion vs. €6 billion).

But he knew Germans — who tend to think the worse of America — would buy it anyway. And they have. An in-depth study released earlier this month by Allensbach, a respected polling institute, found that only 46 percent of Germans consider the U.S. to be a reliable ally. In other words, America’s nearly eight decades of protecting Germans from Russia have not been enough to convince a majority of them that the U.S. is their friend.

That was also clear this past weekend in Berlin as thousands of anti-war demonstrators (estimates range from 13,000 to 50,000) took to the streets of central Berlin to protest a war that many of them blame on the U.S. (A common argument among many of the leftist forces behind Saturday’s demonstration holds that the U.S. has two goals in connection with Ukraine: to sell weapons and to destroy Russia.)

Politicians like Scholz, who don’t want Germans to know just how reliant their country is on the U.S. security umbrella, are the biggest reason for the country’s dysfunctional relationship with its most important ally.

Like Merkel before him, Scholz is a politician who prefers to be led by polls instead of leading. When the polls showed Germans were skeptical of sending heavy weapons to Ukraine, for example, he held back instead of making the case as to why such support was in Germany’s own best interest. He only relented once the pressure from outside Germany, especially from the U.S., became so great that he had no choice.

Washington is slowly waking up to the fact that Germany’s Zeitenwende is a mirage. German defense spending this year is expected to be about €50 billion, falling well short once again of NATO’s target of 2 percent of GDP. As ever, Scholz and other German politicians are promising to reach the target soon.

The contrast with neighboring Poland, where spending is forecast to jump to 3 percent of GDP this year from 2.2 percent, couldn’t be greater.

That’s one reason why the U.S. is embracing Poland like never before. Biden’s center-left administration and Poland’s national conservative government are hardly natural allies. But they are united by a common enemy and President Biden has visited the country twice in less than a year.

The U.S. president’s only visit to Germany came because the country was hosting the G7 summit last summer. Scholz is due to meet Biden at the White House on Friday for what a U.S. official described as a “working visit.”

It’s not clear what promises, if any, Scholz will make this time around.

If nothing else, Germany’s half-hearted pursuit of the Zeitenwende is forcing Americans to sharpen their German. One word bound to be making the rounds in Washington this week is fremdschämen, which is feeling shame for the action (or inaction) of others.

Full disclosure, I'm not familiar with this commentator so would appreciate anyone who is chiming in if we should just ignore this article entirely.

Shes Not Impressed
Apr 25, 2004


An ISW update on Russian combat force numbers:
https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1630211007648874497?s=20

Also Big Train Man is headed for bigger and better things (gonna credit Cinci for calling this one about a week ago):
https://twitter.com/AKamyshin/status/1630227614257250305?s=20

Tomn
Aug 23, 2007

And the angel said unto him
"Stop hitting yourself. Stop hitting yourself."
But lo he could not. For the angel was hitting him with his own hands

It's a bit grim, but I can't help but wonder how Russia's overall ideological makeup will be altered over time if Putin actually has been leaning on ultranationalist influencers to find volunteers - what happens when the most die-hard types go into a conflict where the odds of injury or death are very high, and the survivors have a good chance of walking away with trauma?

KillHour
Oct 28, 2007



I'm really hoping they're right that Russia will run out of personnel 10 months ago :haw:

I'm glad to see I'm not the only one who is still in denial that it's 2023 already

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Ynglaur
Oct 9, 2013

The Malta Conference, anyone?
https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1629722073487613953?s=20

This Twitter thread was mentioned earlier ITT and is getting a fair amount of discussion on Twitter (inasmuch as Twitter fosters discussion). The organization sizes seem to indicate the level of officer responsible for them, not size. Thus, the "platoons" are the sizes of Western squads: about 12 men. "Companies" are around 60-80 men.

I have some problems with this task organization and even some of the tactics it espouses. The "assault platoons" are 12-man squads, which is good. I've thought for 20 years that the US 9-man squad was too small, and organized my dismounted patrols as 12-man squads in Iraq in 2003. There's a reasonable case that an IFV can be "the third fire team" supporting two dismounted teams of 4, but 12 to a squad provides good redundancy.

Then Russia goes and negates the benefit. Each squad has two heavy machineguns and two automatic grenade launchers (AGLs). "That's a lot of firepower, Ynglaur," you say, "Isn't that a good thing?" Yes, if the job of that unit is to provide support-by-fire. But it's an assault element. But now instead of 12 men you have 6: a platoon commander, a signaler (radio, I assume?), a medic, a senior rifleman, and two sappers.

The pamphlet goes on to state that the ideal range for the AGLs is 600-1700m away. Think about that for a minute. You have a 12-man squad, and 6 of them are going to be 600+ meters in front of the other 6. How do they communicate? You better have good quality, multiple radios going, and excellent coordination.

It specifies organizing into 4 teams of 3 men each, which is okay, but 2 of the 4 teams have heavy weapons, and 1 has the platoon commander and a UAV operator. That leaves a single, 3-man team to actually assault an objective. I guess that's why that team has the medic assigned. His job will be to save the other 2.

I realize Russia is a fires army rather than a maneuver army, but this structure seems to repeat the problems BTGs had but on smaller scale: a high theoretical combat power due to lots of heavy hardware, but the inability to sustain combat effectiveness in the face of casualties and the inability to move quickly.

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